Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-2   Win (11/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-3   Win (5/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-4   Win (9/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-5   Win (2/6/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-6   Win (9/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-7   Win (8/7/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-8   Win (8/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-9   Win (10/2/9/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-10   Win (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-11   Win (8/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-12   Win (12/10/11/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   11/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 ALL PT-11:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
I'M YOUR MAN Nov01         (casse norm)SANTANA JR 122 2.50 56% 0.80    
TIZZY INDY Nov08 Oct04 Aug10 Jul23   (desormeaux )HERNANDEZ J 120 4.50    
LET'S GO MARK Nov05 Oct07 Aug13 Jun24 May03 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00    
SMOOTHDINI Nov05 Sep29       (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 12.00 5% 19.00    
MENA Oct26 Jul21       (caramori caio)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 20% 4.00    
AMERICUS Oct31 Oct04       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00    
 
CD-2   11/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT-11:58
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EYES OF GOLD Oct08 Aug04 Jul22 Nov24 Oct22 (demeritte larry)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
CAUSE I'M WILD Nov03 Sep24       (morse randy)LEPAROUX R 121 20.00    
SCR  MILIEU Sep03 Jul31 Apr27 Mar16 Jan29 (mott william)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
WARWOMAN Sep13 Oct15 Sep17 Aug06 Jul02 (torres conce)CORRALES GERARDO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STAGFLATION Oct22 Oct08 Sep15 Aug18   (baker james)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
SCR  BLUE TOPAZ Oct01 Sep03 Jul22 Apr27 Mar31 (flenner and)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 15.00    
CRIMALDI Oct23 May14 Mar16 Feb16 Nov18 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00    
DEFAULT         (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
UPSWELL Nov03 Sep24       (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00    
10  TIDAL TACTICS Sep13 Sep02       (hill f)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00    
11  RED RIVER MAGIC Oct26 Sep15 Jul09     (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 116 3.00 70% 0.40    
12  BAG LADY Jun23 May20       (catalano wayn)PETERSON FERRIN 121 15.00    
13  TAKE SHAPE Sep13 Jul08 Jun11 May18 Sep30 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00    
SCR  MUCHO MACHO CHICK Oct26 Sep22 Sep03     (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00    
SCR  SOUL HEIR Nov01 Sep26 Aug31     (fields christoph)ASHTON GAVIN 121 15.00    
16  VIOLET FLAME Nov01 Sep27       (wittek karyn)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 30.00    
 
CD-3   11/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT-12:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JACKIE'S LOVE Nov05 Oct12 Sep01 Aug11 Jul20 (butche)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 15.00    
SCR  TENACIOUS LADY Oct28 Oct06 Sep09 Jul30 Jun11 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
SCR  STEEL RACER Nov04 Oct18 Sep21 Jul23 Jun29 (medina robe)LEPAROUX R 120 3.50    
SHELL SHOCK Oct14 Aug01 Jun24 Jun03 Mar04 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50    
PACHANGA LOCA Sep29 Aug17 Jul21 Jun01 Apr28 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 36% 1.80    
LOST BIKINI Oct01 Aug22 Jul30 Jun26 May05 (reed r)MCKEE J 120 10.00    
THERESASILVERLININ Nov07 Sep14 May05     (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00 33% 2.10    
 
CD-4   11/23/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT-12:54
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TITLE CONTENDER Oct22 Sep22       (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 114 3.00 25% 2.90    
QUENCIO Nov01 Sep22       (gutierrez )SANTANA JR 119 15.00    
PATCH O'BRIEN Sep17 Aug12 Jun16 May11   (garcia genar)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
TRACK LIGHT Oct18         (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 7% 13.90    
MASTER OF THE NITE Oct26         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
DIFFERENT FLAME Nov02 Sep29       (hartman chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 6% 17.10    
EAST FROM WEST Sep20         (vance thomas)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00    
STING MUSIC Nov08 Oct20       (gowan william)COURT K 119 6.00    
ULTIMATE STRIKE Oct26 Sep29 Sep10 Aug06   (pino michae)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00 40% 1.50    
 
CD-5   11/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ST. BENEDICTS PREP Oct12 Jul28 Jun23 May12 Sep04 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00    
PILLBOX Nov01 Sep30 Mar26 Mar01 Feb01 (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.00 34% 1.90    
BALL GOWN Oct20 Sep20 Aug01 Jul11 Jun11 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 120 10.00    
GHOSTLY NIGHT Oct20 Aug27 Aug12 Jun09 May19 (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 12.00    
STORY HOUR Oct19 Sep29 Aug26 May21 Apr27 (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
FILLY CRYSTAL Nov01 Sep15       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 26% 2.90    
LUNA MOTH Sep29 Aug24 Jun24 May25 May02 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00    
LITTLE SISTER SUE Sep29 Sep13 Aug31 Aug08 Jun11 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
SISTER KISSES Sep24 Sep04 Aug11     (garcia genar)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 15% 5.80    
 
CD-6   11/23/2023 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HOLA GATA Oct18 Sep09 Aug11 Jul15 Nov05 (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
LITTLE DIXIE Nov05 Sep29 Aug19 Jun11 Apr23 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
CANT KEEP ME DOWN Oct27 Oct07 Sep03 Aug06 Jul07 (maker mich)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  CHA CHA TAP Oct29 Oct08 Sep06 Dec14 Nov20 (milosevic m)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
MUSICAL MISCHIEF Oct24 Sep22 Aug01 May05   (mccarthy michae)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
SCR  EXCELLENT QUESTION Oct26 Oct01 Aug28 Jul15 Jun10 (walsh p)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50    
YARBOROUGH Oct18 Sep06 Aug16 Oct30 Sep10 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 15.00    
SULTRY LASS Nov01 Feb09       (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 13% 6.90    
WINGS LIKE EAGLES Nov04 Jun11 May07 Apr16 Feb24 (mott i)ACHARD ALEX 121 4.00 36% 1.80    
10  ROSIE'S ALIBI Oct14 Nov06 Sep24 Aug21   (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
SCR  THESTRAL Oct18 Sep21 Aug16 Jul20 Feb08 (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
 
CD-7   11/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PUNCTUALITY Nov01 Oct13 Sep24 Jul31 Jul16 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
INSIGNIS Oct20 Sep07 Jun27 Apr16 Mar15 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
ONEPARTICULRHARBOR Oct13 Sep12 Aug11 Jul12 Jun15 (glyshaw tim)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 15.00    
SCR  MAN'S CHOICE Oct25 Oct03 Sep21 Aug31 Jul06 (fernandez edward)MCKEE J 118 30.00    
JEWELSTOWN Oct28 Sep14 Jul21 Jun18 May04 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.00 5% 19.00    
DAVID'S TUITION Oct20 Aug15 Jul18 Jun01   (baker james)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
DUAL MONARCHY Oct20 Sep14 Aug04 Jun29 May14 (engler jef)SANTANA JR 118 6.00 7% 12.60    
REDDINGTON Jun24 Apr29 Mar30 Oct01 Sep02 (walden william)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 66% 0.50    
PLATINUM GHOST Nov01 Sep24 Aug03 Jun01 Apr27 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
10  AMERICAN ICON May28 May21 May13 May03 Apr21 (vasquez german )CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  BUCKTOWN Oct14 Sep30 Jul24 Jul06 May04 (west ethan )HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
12  CARNIVORE Nov04 Sep30 Sep10 Aug19 Jul16 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 121 4.50    
 
CD-8   11/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:47
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
O BESOS Oct28 Sep30 Jul22 Nov05 Oct01 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
SCR  TWILIGHT BLUE Oct28 Sep28 Aug13 Jun25 May13 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50    
INJUNCTION Nov11 Oct13 Aug31 Nov25 Oct01 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 6.00    
PRO OXIDANT Oct28 Aug25 Jun01 Apr08 Feb12 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GO EMI Jan21 Dec11 Nov24 Nov10 Oct05 (gonzalez lilia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00    
PIONEER OF MEDINA Jun03 Apr22 Mar25 Feb18 Dec31 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.00    
SCR  BUCK MOON Oct27 Sep26 Aug17 Jul19 Jun10 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 123 20.00    
BEST ACTOR Sep21 Aug13 Jun30 Sep25 Aug23 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 2.00 61% 0.60    
 
CD-9   11/23/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:16
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EMBRACE (IRE) Oct25 Jun01 May06 Apr16 Nov23 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 120 30.00    
DUCALE Oct25 Apr16       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50 17% 5.00    
BOURBON HEIST Oct23 Sep29 Jul21 Jun22 May14 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CYCLONE MISCHIEF May06 Apr01 Mar04 Feb04 Jan08 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
MR BOB Oct15 Aug25 Feb04 Jan01 Nov26 (falcone n)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
AWESOME AARON Nov04 Sep16 Aug19 Jul29 Jul01 (green troy)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
INVULNERABLE Feb25 Jan21 Dec17 Nov24   (sharp joe)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00    
W W CANDY Oct25 Sep29 Sep05 Aug20 Jul27 (quinonez max)LEZCANO ABEL 120 8.00 6% 16.50    
STRAVA Jul02 Jun03 May04 Dec26 Nov27 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 11% 7.80    
10  ANGKOR Oct25 Sep29 Aug05 May21 May03 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 120 4.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  GREENER PASTURES Oct01 Sep03 Aug04 Jul09 Jun04 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 30.00    
12  BLUE LIGHT Oct13 Sep20 Aug13 Jun25 May21 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 120 15.00    
 
CD-10   11/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC12 GOOD Cardinal Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JOYFUL APPLAUSE Oct18 Sep15 Aug05 Jun22 May18 (pitts helen)MOJICA O 121 8.00 7% 12.90    
STAR FORTRESS (IRE)         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
LOVELY PRINCESS Oct22 Aug27 Jul08 May27 Apr22 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 33% 2.00    
WALKATHON Oct21 Aug31 Jun04 May14 Apr22 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 121 4.00    
SCR  TAKE A STAND Jul08 Jun11 May05 Mar11 Nov25 (oliver vi)DE CRUZ 121 30.00    
JUNCTURE (GB) Oct07 Aug27 Jul08 May29 Apr21 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 2.50 30% 2.30    
SAFFRON MOON Oct07 Aug17 Dec24 Apr27   (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00    
 
CD-11   11/23/2023 5940ft DIRT RC12 FAST Falls City Purse ($400K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HIDDEN CONNECTION Nov18 Sep16 Aug13 Jun24 Jun03 (calhoun william )PRAT FLAVIEN 121 3.00    
SKRATCH KAT Nov03 Oct18 Sep22 Jul23 Jul16 (bauer phili)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
SHEZZ KOLDAZICE Oct18 Aug30 Aug09 Jun29 May27 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 20.00    
MISTY VEIL Sep16 Aug19 Jul22 Jun24 May19 (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
JAG WARRIOR Oct18 Sep22 Aug06 Jun11 May05 (romans dale)HERNANDEZ J 121 30.00    
DISTINCTLYPOSSIBLE Nov03 Jul22 May14 Apr14 Feb26 (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 12.00 11% 8.10    
MUSIC STREET Nov12 Oct18 Sep22 Aug11 May27 (beckman d )SANTANA JR 121 30.00    
XIGERA Oct28 Sep23 Aug04 Jul01 Jun02 (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 120 0.60 64% 0.60    
BELLAMORE Nov03 Oct08 Jul01 May29 Apr29 (santamaria carl)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00    
 
CD-12   11/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MO ATTITUDE         (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 119 15.00    
PARADE DOWN BROAD         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
TAPPIN INTO GENIUS         (leitch dan)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
UNO LE         (galindo-tor)CORREA L 119 20.00    
SCR  NO BODY LOVES ME         (short thomas)CANUTO THIAGO 119 30.00    
SCR  PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE Oct06 Sep16       (amoss thoma)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
LEGADEMA         (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
MIRANDA         (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
OUTSPOKEN Sep24 Aug13       (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00    
10  MISCHIEVOUS MIND Oct25         (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 32% 2.10    
11  TALE OF LA BEE Nov02         (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50 12% 7.30    
12  LADY MOSCATO Oct29 Sep30 Sep03 Aug06 Jul13 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 33% 2.00    
13  LADLE Nov01 Aug15 Jul07     (miller jerome)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00    
SCR  KERLO'S CAUSE         (short thomas)GARCIA F 119 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.