The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (6/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 1 $7.98 $7.98 1.98
CD-2   Win (6/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 7 1 0 $7.38 -4.00
CD-3   Win (9/4/10/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 0 $16.30 -8.00
CD-4   Win (11/12/2/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 0 $24.22 -10.00
CD-5   Win (8/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 8 1 1 $3.42 $3.42 -2.58
CD-6   Win (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $13.60 $13.60 7.60
CD-7   Win (2/3/5/1/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 0 $12.56 -10.00
CD-8   Win (4/9/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 0 $16.26 -8.00
CD-9   Win (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 6 1 1 $3.36 $3.36 -0.64
CD-10   Win (3/4/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 9 1 0 $6.20 -8.00
CD-11   Win (6/9/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 12 1 0 $61.52 -6.00

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/18/2023 3630ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:224 :47 :594     1:062   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAP ANCHOR 6 3 52 44   21(asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 1.80 34% 1.90 2.99 W
WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE 5 4 1nk 12   12(ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00 39% 1.50 1.34 P
MR BIG STUFF (GB) 4 2 3½ 33   33(puhich mike)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 2.14  
PLEASANT DESTINY 3 1 2nk 22   45 410 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00 5.55  
PERSUADE 1 6 611 611½   612 517½ (corrigan jim)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00 26.68  
NON FUNGIBLE 2 5 4 5   510 622 (short thomas)TERRAZA GERMAN 112 12.00 34.55  
SCR  FLASHOVER               (vanden b)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
 
CD-2   11/18/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:253 :504 1:153 1:40   1:462   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BABY GUNDIN 4 3 21 21 2½ 11(pino v)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00 2.69  
LA TOURISTA 1 4 3 31 3 34 2(asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00 4.29  
HOPE OVER FEAR 3 1 11 11 1½ 236 (gutierrez fa)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 33% 2.10 2.18 S
KEEN CONTENDER 2 2 43 4 43 44(van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00 1.28  
SCR  FIRESIDE KITTEN               (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 121 4.00    
SCR  JUMP INTO THE FIRE               (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.50 24% 3.10    
SCR  MISS MOON PIE               (beck rowena)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00    
 
CD-3   11/18/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:23 :462 1:113     1:25   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EXTRA HALO 5 2 12 1   18 110½ (granitz anth)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 7.15  
12  LEAD FOOT 9 5 7 46   28 210½ (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00 41.99  
BARNABY 4 7 8 7   310½ 311¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 4.78  
GREAT RICHIE M 6 6 4 3   412 413¾ (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 3.67  
CAPITAL CAUSE 3 8 9 812¼   817 520¾ (von donnie)ROCCO S 119 15.00 5% 19.00 33.72  
STUNNEM 7 1 32 56   615 621¼ (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.50 37% 1.70 3.26  
ALL THE RAGE 2 3 5 68   716½ 721¾ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 33% 2.00 3.00  
VINO CALDO 1 9 6 913¼   920 826¼ (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00 8.28  
10  MUNYHUNGRY 8 4 22 2   514 928¼ (moquett ro)SANTANA JR 119 15.00 5% 19.00 16.16  
SCR  BEAR RIVER               (desormeaux j)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00    
SCR  MIRAGE (IRE)               (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
SCR  QUENCIO               (gutierrez f)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
 
CD-4   11/18/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:122     1:184   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LAUGHINALLTHEWAY 5 7 9 7   31 1(lovell michelle)ASHTON GAVIN 124 10.00 11.11  
11  SOLEVO 8 5 43 4   1½ 2(asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 4.00 33% 2.10 7.54 P
MY UNCLE FRANK 1 8 6 5   2½ 3(asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 122 10.00 15% 5.60 1.36 S
SILVER BULL 2 9 8 8   54(foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00 5% 19.00 9.90  
12  PACIFIC STATES 9 1 3½ 1nk   45(desormeaux j)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 16% 5.30 6.32  
10  DELTA DELTA 7 4 2½ 2nk   64 616 (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 122 8.00 19.74  
NIGHT CHANT 4 6 7 6   8718 (brownfield cla)RAMOS D 122 15.00 37.68  
BAD BOY FOR LIFE 3 3 5 9   99 821½ (howey quinn)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00 15.94  
CHITWOOD 6 2 1½ 3.2   76 923 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50 3.36  
SCR  LOBO SALVAJE               (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MR. COMMANDER               (king l)COURT K 122 15.00    
SCR  QUALITY TEMPER               (barrett rodd)ANDERSON MCKENNA 115 20.00    
 
CD-5   11/18/2023 3630ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:221 :453 :574     1:041   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TALKIN' CASH 3 2 12 11   13 15 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 55% 0.80 0.71 W
DOUBLE CLUTCH 1 3 3 3   23 25 (arnold geor)LEPAROUX R 120 2.50 11% 8.30 3.74 P
10  HUNTERTOWN 5 5 6 66   63(hernandez rey)MOJICA O 118 20.00 25.72  
ZARTOWNIS 4 7 5 4   45 4(devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 5.09  
12  TRUST DADDY 6 4 22 21   35(murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 120 30.00 14.23  
14  IMMORTALIZATION 7 6 44 5   56 6(casse norm)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 12.12  
BAIE LONGUE 2 1 7 79   7710¼ (mott i)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 11% 8.50 12.37  
SCR  TOWN BARBER               (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 120 10.00    
SCR  STRAIGHT AND LEVEL               (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 8.00    
SCR  ST. PADDY'S CHARM               (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
SCR  MESA SPIRIT               (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
SCR  HALMSTAD               (rutledge lance)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.60    
SCR  FOXTROTANNA               (wojczynski justin)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
SCR  WESTERN COMMAND               (foley greg)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
SCR  CIGARETTE BOAT               (maker mich)SANTANA JR 120 6.00    
 
CD-6   11/18/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:24 :491 1:143 1:40   1:464   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CAT'S CAVE 4 1 3 42 21 1½ 1(tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 120 3.50 22% 3.50 5.80 W
ANNA'S WISH 1 2 1½ 11 11 2½ 2(ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 2.66  
HUSH IT HONEY 5 7 43 3 32 33(morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00 35% 1.90 7.55 S
ABOVE THE SUN 2 6 6 6 7 47 4(wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 5.00 6.70  
ROCK STAR DOCTOR 6 5 7 7 6 58 511½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 6.87  
PUCKERED 7 3 54 53 5 68 614 (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 1.71  
BOLD BABY 3 4 2½ 21 4 715 738 (compton gre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 19% 4.20 19.08  
 
CD-7   11/18/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:212 :451 :582     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  TRIAL 9 8 79 5   32 1(drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5.28  
BEDAZZLE 'EM 3 5 11 1½   11 2(engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 22% 3.60 2.04 P
CHARM OF THE SONG 4 1 8 69   56 3(wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 37.16  
BEAUTIFUL MISCHIEF 5 3 4 4   44 4(kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 11% 7.80 2.78  
HOW SOON IS NOW 2 4 32 2½   21 5(lynch brian )HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 37% 1.70 8.44  
SUMMERINTAHOE 8 10 912½ 811   69 611¼ (ewing a)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 19.68  
TIZ SWEET EMOTION 7 7 58 79   811 717 (baker james)CARROLL DECLAN 119 15.00 19.32  
LADY DRILLER 1 6 68 913½   913½ 819¼ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 9% 9.60 7.15  
11  WONDER OF YOU 10 2 21 3   79 921¼ (foley greg)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00 11.27  
CALADIUM 6 9 1019½ 1019½   1017½ 1022½ (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00 36.63  
SCR  FANTOMAH               (devaux cherie)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
SCR  HOPE MISSION               (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
SCR  OUTSPOKEN               (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
SCR  TAPPIN INTO GENIUS               (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/18/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:22 :454 :582     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOREVER COOL 4 8 8 6   41½ (scherer marianne)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 7.13  
SHERIFF RONNIE 1 6 4 5   2nk 2½ (sanchez-sal)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 5% 19.00 4.47 P
REWIRE 5 4 7 8   31 3¾ (shorter aa)SANTANA JR 120 15.00 11% 8.10 20.22 S
MAGNIFICENT MILE 7 5 31 2nk   1nk 4(contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 3.00 13% 6.60 2.28  
LUPO'S LEGACY 2 7 5 41   55(hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 12.36  
TALKSCHEAP 6 2 6 7   76(alessi jame)CORREA L 118 20.00 68.14  
10  LIBERTANGO 8 3 2nk 3½   8714 (catalano way)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00 7.95  
CONCEPT 3 1 1nk 1nk   6815 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00 54% 0.90 1.82  
SCR  FAN THE FIRE               (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
SCR  SOLAR POWER               (matthews randy)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
 
CD-9   11/18/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:241 :48 1:12 1:364   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STRONG QUALITY 3 1 11 1 1 11(casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 57% 0.80 0.68 W
JOHNY'S FIREBALL 1 4 5 53 2 22(casse w)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.50 18% 4.50 2.72 P
13  THE REDS 5 2 31 32 4 3315¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 4.39  
UNDERDRESSED 2 3 4 42 3 49 416¾ (hernandez rey)PETERSON FERRIN 121 15.00 15.47  
11  NATIVE THUNDER 4 5 21 2 57 516 534½ (stewart dal)LEPAROUX R 121 20.00 8.52  
SCR  GUNTON ROE               (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 121 15.00    
SCR  HENLEY'S JOY               (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 121 12.00    
SCR  KINGMAX (IRE)               (delgado jo)SANTANA JR 121 10.00    
SCR  SCANNO               (bourke liam)ASHTON GAVIN 121 30.00    
SCR  GROUP EIGHTEEN               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
SCR  GOOD GOVERNANCE (GB)               (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 12.00    
SCR  STREET READY               (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 10.00    
SCR  BRIGADIER GENERAL               (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
SCR  BIG BLUE LINE               (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00    
SCR  ENGLISH TAVERN               (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50    
 
CD-10   11/18/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Chilukki Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:23 :454 1:102 1:23   1:36   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOT AND SULTRY 8 3 11 1 1 14 18 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 3.50 2.10  
NOSTALGIC 1 8 8 8 8 528 (mott i)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.50 3.92  
OEUVRE 3 2 4 6 2 24 38 (block chris)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 5.00 23% 3.40 7.02 S
FALCONET 6 7 6 44 5 37 4(pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 10% 9.10 3.65  
SHE CAN'T SING 4 4 7 7 7 47 513 (block chris)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 7% 13.40 16.44  
BE LIKE WATER 7 5 31 2 45 79 614 (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 121 20.00 68.14  
BRAGANZA 5 6 5 5 6 68 714 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00 24.91  
HIDDEN CONNECTION 2 1 21 3 35 810 815 (calhoun will)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 31% 2.20 3.20  
SCR  RAINDROPS ON ROSES               (huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 30.00    
 
CD-11   11/18/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:05
See original race card.
:214 :46 :59     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  DIVINE GAL 9 10 9 64   21(von donnie)ROCCO S 119 15.00 29.76  
11  SONHADOR 8 11 10 97   62(devaux cheri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 10.28  
13  TAP THE CHAMPAGNE 10 8 7 5   42 3(matejka pavel)ACHARD ALEX 119 10.00 33.54  
PRETTY SONG 4 7 5 42   54(arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 1.36  
14  RAINY NIGHT 11 2 4 1½   15(lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 3.79  
MISS ENCHANTED 2 4 31 7   86(romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 12.77  
ADELEKE 6 3 21 31   7710¼ (servis john )HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 36% 1.80 10.45  
THE J FACTOR 1 9 1110¼ 11   10810¾ (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 20.00 35.65  
COPPERDROP 3 5 8 87   9911¼ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 42% 1.40 4.90  
CABERNEIGH 5 1 11 2½   32 1012¼ (barker w)CANUTO THIAGO 119 3.50 15.19  
10  VINO MIZEL 7 6 6 10   1110¾ 1118¾ (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00 80.61  
SCR  ALL OUT OF GRACE               (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
SCR  UNMATCHED               (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00    
SCR  VELVET KISSES               (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries will win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.