Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (6/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-2   Win (6) 1 $2.00 $2.00
CD-3   Win (9/4/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-4   Win (11/12/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-5   Win (8/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-6   Win (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-7   Win (2/3/5/1/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-8   Win (4/9/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-9   Win (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-10   Win (3/4/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-11   Win (6/9/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   11/18/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PERSUADE         (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 119 12.00    
NON FUNGIBLE Oct20 Sep07       (short thomas)TERRAZA GERMAN 112 12.00    
PLEASANT DESTINY         (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
MR BIG STUFF (GB)         (puhich mike)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50    
SCR  FLASHOVER         (vanden b)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE Oct20 Jul12 Jun16 May04   (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00 39% 1.50    
TAP ANCHOR Oct24 Oct14       (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 1.80 34% 1.90    
 
CD-2   11/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JUMP INTO THE FIRE Aug11 May27 May05 Apr21 Jun29 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.50 24% 3.10    
LA TOURISTA Oct01 Sep17 Aug12 Jul23 Jul07 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00    
SCR  MISS MOON PIE Oct25 Sep30 Aug18 Jul27 Jul14 (beck rowena)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00    
KEEN CONTENDER Nov02 Oct16 Aug26 Aug01 Jun30 (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00    
SCR  FIRESIDE KITTEN Oct23 Jul15 Jun13 May06 Mar31 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 121 4.00    
HOPE OVER FEAR Sep17 Sep06 Aug04 Jun18 May21 (gutierrez fa)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 33% 2.10    
BABY GUNDIN Oct09 Sep11 Jul03 May29 May01 (pino v)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00    
 
CD-3   11/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUENCIO Nov01 Sep22       (gutierrez f)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
SCR  BEAR RIVER Nov09 Oct07 Sep10 Aug24   (desormeaux j)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00    
VINO CALDO         (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
ALL THE RAGE         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 33% 2.00    
CAPITAL CAUSE         (von donnie)ROCCO S 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
BARNABY         (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
EXTRA HALO Oct03 Aug19       (granitz anth)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
GREAT RICHIE M Oct11         (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
STUNNEM Nov02 Oct11 Sep14 Aug26   (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.50 37% 1.70    
10  MUNYHUNGRY         (moquett ro)SANTANA JR 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MIRAGE (IRE)         (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
12  LEAD FOOT Oct26 Oct11 Sep21 Aug13 Jul21 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00    
 
CD-4   11/18/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MR. COMMANDER Oct21 Oct02 Sep22 Aug21 Jul21 (king l)COURT K 122 15.00    
MY UNCLE FRANK Oct15 Aug20 Jul09 Jun17   (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 122 10.00 15% 5.60    
SCR  LOBO SALVAJE Oct31         (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
SILVER BULL Oct05 Jul07 Jun15 Mar04 Jan21 (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
BAD BOY FOR LIFE         (howey quinn)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00    
NIGHT CHANT Oct27 Oct18 Sep18 Aug29 Jul30 (brownfield cla)RAMOS D 122 15.00    
LAUGHINALLTHEWAY         (lovell michelle)ASHTON GAVIN 124 10.00    
CHITWOOD Sep24 Jun01 Mar02 Sep24   (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50    
SCR  QUALITY TEMPER Oct31         (barrett rodd)ANDERSON MCKENNA 115 20.00    
10  DELTA DELTA Mar30 Jul02       (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 122 8.00    
11  SOLEVO Oct21 Sep20 Apr22     (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 4.00 33% 2.10    
12  PACIFIC STATES Nov03 Mar04 Jan21 Jan06 Nov05 (desormeaux j)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 16% 5.30    
 
CD-5   11/18/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TOWN BARBER Oct25 Oct02 Aug27 Jul16   (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 120 10.00    
DOUBLE CLUTCH Oct25 Mar08 Jan28 Oct29 Sep05 (arnold geor)LEPAROUX R 120 2.50 11% 8.30    
SCR  CIGARETTE BOAT Oct13 Sep14 Sep02 Aug13 Jul15 (maker mich)SANTANA JR 120 6.00    
SCR  WESTERN COMMAND Oct25 Sep13 Aug11 Jun18 May20 (foley greg)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
SCR  STRAIGHT AND LEVEL Sep02 Jul30       (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 8.00    
BAIE LONGUE Sep10 Jul15 Sep25 Aug13 Jul23 (mott i)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 11% 8.50    
SCR  ST. PADDY'S CHARM Apr15         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
TALKIN' CASH Oct15 Mar11       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 55% 0.80    
ZARTOWNIS Oct26 Sep13 Aug11 Jul15 May23 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
10  HUNTERTOWN Oct26 Sep20 Aug30 Jul13 Jun22 (hernandez rey)MOJICA O 118 20.00    
SCR  FOXTROTANNA Oct07 Sep13 Aug11 Jul13   (wojczynski justin)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
12  TRUST DADDY Oct26 Jun23 May19 Apr21 Dec02 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 120 30.00    
SCR  MESA SPIRIT Oct22 Sep08 Dec04 Oct16   (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
14  IMMORTALIZATION Sep17 Aug18 Jul28 Jul01 Jun17 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 120 8.00    
SCR  HALMSTAD Oct27 Oct08 Sep14     (rutledge lance)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.60    
 
CD-6   11/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 F PT- 3:31
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ANNA'S WISH Sep27 Sep03       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
ABOVE THE SUN Oct08 Sep07 Jul22     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 5.00    
BOLD BABY Oct26 Oct07 Sep21     (compton gre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 19% 4.20    
CAT'S CAVE Sep29 Aug02 Jul01 Jun10   (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 120 3.50 22% 3.50    
HUSH IT HONEY Nov02 Sep21       (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00 35% 1.90    
ROCK STAR DOCTOR Oct27 Sep20 Aug13     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50    
PUCKERED Sep20 Aug01       (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00    
 
CD-7   11/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LADY DRILLER         (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 9% 9.60    
HOW SOON IS NOW Sep27         (lynch brian )HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 37% 1.70    
BEDAZZLE 'EM Oct21         (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 22% 3.60    
CHARM OF THE SONG Oct19 Sep09       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00    
BEAUTIFUL MISCHIEF Oct19 Sep27       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 11% 7.80    
CALADIUM         (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
TIZ SWEET EMOTION         (baker james)CARROLL DECLAN 119 15.00    
SUMMERINTAHOE Oct21         (ewing a)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
SCR  FANTOMAH         (devaux cherie)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
10  TRIAL         (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
11  WONDER OF YOU         (foley greg)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HOPE MISSION         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
SCR  OUTSPOKEN Sep24 Aug13       (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
SCR  TAPPIN INTO GENIUS         (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FAN THE FIRE Nov02 Oct07       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
SHERIFF RONNIE Oct21 Oct05 Sep09 Aug18 Aug03 (sanchez-sal)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
LUPO'S LEGACY Nov03 Aug20 Jul31 Jul07 Jun10 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00    
CONCEPT Apr15 Feb25 Feb04 Dec29 Apr01 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00 54% 0.90    
SCR  SOLAR POWER Oct26 Sep12 Aug19 Aug02 Jul08 (matthews randy)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
FOREVER COOL Nov03 Sep24 Aug28 Jul30 Jul02 (scherer marianne)BEJARANO R 120 6.00    
REWIRE Nov01 Feb17 Jan19 Dec16 Nov18 (shorter aa)SANTANA JR 120 15.00 11% 8.10    
TALKSCHEAP Oct14 Sep20 Sep06 Mar10 Feb22 (alessi jame)CORREA L 118 20.00    
MAGNIFICENT MILE Oct20 Sep16 Aug26 Jul14 Jun20 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 3.00 13% 6.60    
10  LIBERTANGO Aug30 Jun20 Apr26 Apr08 Feb17 (catalano way)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00    
 
CD-9   11/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SCANNO Sep01 Aug11 Oct02 Sep06 Aug16 (bourke liam)ASHTON GAVIN 121 30.00    
JOHNY'S FIREBALL Oct06 Sep03 Jul30 Jun02 May11 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.50 18% 4.50    
SCR  HENLEY'S JOY Oct08 Sep09 Aug03 May19 Apr07 (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 121 12.00    
SCR  BIG BLUE LINE Nov04 Sep13 Aug13 Jun30 Mar24 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00    
UNDERDRESSED Oct19 Oct06 Sep07 Aug05 Jul08 (hernandez rey)PETERSON FERRIN 121 15.00    
STRONG QUALITY Aug31 Aug12 Jun10 Apr13 Feb25 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 57% 0.80    
SCR  ENGLISH TAVERN Nov02 Sep14 Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50    
SCR  KINGMAX (IRE) Jul29 Jul07 Jun10     (delgado jo)SANTANA JR 121 10.00    
SCR  GUNTON ROE Aug20 Jul09 Jan21 Dec28 Sep14 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 121 15.00    
SCR  GOOD GOVERNANCE (GB) Jul11 Jun04 Mar04 Jan28 Dec31 (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 12.00    
11  NATIVE THUNDER Nov02 Sep23 May27 May04 Mar25 (stewart dal)LEPAROUX R 121 20.00    
SCR  STREET READY Sep23 Aug31 Dec31 Oct23 Sep01 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 10.00    
13  THE REDS Oct22 Sep14 Jul21 Apr28 Mar11 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00    
SCR  BRIGADIER GENERAL Oct20 Sep25 Aug15 Jun22 May06 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
SCR  GROUP EIGHTEEN Oct19 Sep21 Aug12 Jul21 Jun22 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
 
CD-10   11/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC12 FAST Chilukki Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NOSTALGIC Oct08 Aug19 Jul19 Nov25 Nov04 (mott i)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.50    
SCR  RAINDROPS ON ROSES Sep12 Aug18 Jul08 Jun09 May21 (huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 30.00    
HIDDEN CONNECTION Sep16 Aug13 Jun24 Jun03 Apr21 (calhoun will)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 31% 2.20    
OEUVRE Oct21 Sep07 Jul26 May21 May05 (block chris)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 5.00 23% 3.40    
SHE CAN'T SING Aug10 Jul20 Jun21 Mar25 Jan28 (block chris)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 7% 13.40    
BRAGANZA Oct21 Sep01 Jul21 Jun03 Apr27 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
FALCONET Sep16 Aug13 May19 Apr02 Feb18 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 10% 9.10    
BE LIKE WATER Oct26 Oct07 Aug13 Jun24 Apr14 (oliver victoria)GARCIA MARTIN 121 20.00    
HOT AND SULTRY May06 Apr15 Mar11 Jan21 Dec30 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 3.50    
 
CD-11   11/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ALL OUT OF GRACE         (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
THE J FACTOR         (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 20.00    
MISS ENCHANTED         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00    
SCR  UNMATCHED Oct19 Sep03 Jun30 May19 Apr26 (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00    
SCR  VELVET KISSES         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
COPPERDROP Oct19         (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 42% 1.40    
PRETTY SONG         (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
CABERNEIGH Oct19 Sep16       (barker w)CANUTO THIAGO 119 3.50    
ADELEKE Oct19         (servis john )HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 36% 1.80    
10  VINO MIZEL         (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00    
11  SONHADOR         (devaux cheri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
12  DIVINE GAL         (von donnie)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
13  TAP THE CHAMPAGNE         (matejka pavel)ACHARD ALEX 119 10.00    
14  RAINY NIGHT         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.