The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Ellis Park
Saturday - June 24, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (1/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $8.48 $8.48 2.48
    Exacta (1/4/5)-(1/4/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 1-4 2 1 $17.74 $17.74 5.74
    Trifecta (1/4/5)-(1/4/5)-(1/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 1-4-3 3 0 $10.51 -3.00
ELP-2   Win (2/3/6/9/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 9 1 1 $4.62 $4.62 -5.38
    Exacta (2/3/6/9/11)-(2/3/6/9/11) 20 $2.00 $40.00 9-11 2 1 $22.18 $22.18 -17.82
    Trifecta (2/3/6/9/11)-(2/3/6/9/11)-(2/3/6/9/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 9-11-6 3 1 $18.94 $18.94 -11.06
    Daily Double (1/4/5)-(2/3/6/9/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 1-9 2 1 $15.07 $15.07 0.07
ELP-3   Win (2/5/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 0 $4.26 -8.00
    Exacta (2/5/6/7)-(2/5/6/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 1-2 2 0 $21.76 -24.00
    Trifecta (2/5/6/7)-(2/5/6/7)-(2/5/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 1-2-3 3 0 $36.46 -12.00
    Daily Double (2/3/6/9/11)-(2/5/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 9-1 2 0 $4.17 -20.00
    Pick Three (1/4/5)-(2/3/6/9/11)-(2/5/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 1-9-1 3 0 $14.80 -30.00
ELP-4   Win (1/2/6/7/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 1 $4.02 $4.02 -5.98
    Exacta (1/2/6/7/11)-(1/2/6/7/11) 20 $2.00 $40.00 7-2 2 1 $23.62 $23.62 -16.38
    Trifecta (1/2/6/7/11)-(1/2/6/7/11)-(1/2/6/7/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 7-2-6 3 1 $14.74 $14.74 -15.26
    Daily Double (2/5/6/7)-(1/2/6/7/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 1-7 2 0 $4.29 -20.00
    Pick Three (2/3/6/9/11)-(2/5/6/7)-(1/2/6/7/11) 100 $0.50 $50.00 9-1-7 3 0 $6.85 -50.00
ELP-5   Win (2/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $5.88 $5.88 -0.12
    Exacta (2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 2-3 2 1 $16.92 $16.92 4.92
    Trifecta (2/3/5)-(2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 2-3-1 3 0 $7.98 -3.00
    Daily Double (1/2/6/7/11)-(2/3/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 7-2 2 1 $6.78 $6.78 -8.22
    Pick Three (2/5/6/7)-(1/2/6/7/11)-(2/3/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 1-7-2 3 0 $8.34 -30.00
ELP-6   Win (2/5/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 0 $13.98 -8.00
    Exacta (2/5/7/8)-(2/5/7/8) 12 $2.00 $24.00 3-5 2 0 $116.88 -24.00
    Trifecta (2/5/7/8)-(2/5/7/8)-(2/5/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 3-5-2 3 0 $206.04 -12.00
    Daily Double (2/3/5)-(2/5/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 2-3 2 0 $23.97 -12.00
    Pick Three (1/2/6/7/11)-(2/3/5)-(2/5/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 7-2-3 3 0 $38.18 -30.00
ELP-7   Win (3/4/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $31.80 -8.00
    Exacta (3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 2-3 2 0 $143.18 -24.00
    Trifecta (3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 2-3-1 3 0 $325.14 -12.00
    Daily Double (2/5/7/8)-(3/4/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 3-2 2 0 $88.23 -16.00
    Pick Three (2/3/5)-(2/5/7/8)-(3/4/5/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 2-3-2 3 0 $207.81 -24.00
ELP-8   Win (3/4/5/9/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 0 $17.22 -10.00
    Exacta (3/4/5/9/10)-(3/4/5/9/10) 20 $2.00 $40.00 7-10 2 0 $110.34 -40.00
    Trifecta (3/4/5/9/10)-(3/4/5/9/10)-(3/4/5/9/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 7-10-5 3 0 $163.59 -30.00
    Daily Double (3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/9/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 2-7 2 0 $173.61 -20.00
    Pick Three (2/5/7/8)-(3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/9/10) 80 $0.50 $40.00 3-2-7 3 0 $564.68 -40.00
ELP-9   Win (2/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $6.38 $6.38 0.38
    Exacta (2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 5-6 2 1 $78.66 $78.66 66.66
    Trifecta (2/5/6)-(2/5/6)-(2/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 5-6-2 3 1 $46.50 $46.50 43.50
    Daily Double (3/4/5/9/10)-(2/5/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 7-5 2 0 $63.65 -15.00
    Pick Three (3/4/5/7)-(3/4/5/9/10)-(2/5/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 2-7-5 3 0 $219.25 -30.00
ELP-10   Win (4/5/7/8/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 0 $11.92 -10.00
    Exacta (4/5/7/8/10)-(4/5/7/8/10) 20 $2.00 $40.00 3-6 2 0 $74.86 -40.00
    Trifecta (4/5/7/8/10)-(4/5/7/8/10)-(4/5/7/8/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 3-6-10 3 0 $69.76 -30.00
    Daily Double (2/5/6)-(4/5/7/8/10) 5-3 2 0 $25.94 0.00
    Daily Double (2/5/6)-(4/5/7/8/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 5-9 2 0 $3.54 -15.00
    Pick Three (3/4/5/9/10)-(2/5/6)-(4/5/7/8/10) 7-5-3 3 0 $66.28 0.00
    Pick Three (3/4/5/9/10)-(2/5/6)-(4/5/7/8/10) 75 $0.50 $37.50 7-5-9 3 0 $13.46 -37.50

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   06/24/2023 5940ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
:243 :483 1:123 1:37   1:493   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOREVER AFTER ALL 1 2 1 11 1nk 11(stall m)LANERIE J 125 3.00 27% 2.70 3.24 W
LITTLE PRANKSTER 3 5 2 21 2nk 22(bauer philip)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80 34% 1.90 0.93 P
MEDAGLIA FOREVER 2 3 3 3 3 339 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 3.40  
INSENSITIVE 5 1 43 5 5 44(anderson do)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 25.78  
METHODOLOGY 4 4 54 4 42 5510¾ (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 2.50 11% 8.10 4.15  
SCR  LADY SAMARITAN               (correas iv)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
 
ELP-2   06/24/2023 3630ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
:224 :46 :582     1:05   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LET'S GO MARK 8 1 1½ 1   11(ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 46% 1.20 1.31 W
11  ASTRONOMICO 10 3 3½ 3   22(gutierrez f)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 21% 3.90 5.37 P
IN A JAM 5 5 2½ 2   33 36 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 7% 13.70 4.04 S
COULDITBEMAJIC 2 10 8 68   45 46 (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 5% 19.00 37.15  
TIZ MY HERO 6 2 5 46   55 5(vance d)LANERIE J 119 12.00 17.59  
MUGATU 3 7 1010¼ 912   810¾ 615¼ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 5.00 7% 13.70 5.23  
LEGEND OF THE NILE 4 4 43 5   68 717½ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 30.73  
10  BAYTOWN CHATTERBOX 9 6 7 7   710½ 820¼ (mcentee paul)HEARD TYLER 119 12.00 28.61  
BOLD FORCE 1 9 9 1012½   912¾ 922¾ (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 14.54  
LUCKY PAL 7 8 65 810½   1017¾ 1045 (winebaugh ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 16.30  
SCR  WEST SARATOGA               (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 4.00    
 
ELP-3   06/24/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
:222 :454 :58     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROJA LIGERA 1 3 1 13   11(sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 1.13  
HALO OF FIRE 2 5 4 3   22(asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 16% 5.40 8.43 P
KALL KAT 3 7 6 5   58 39 (gowan william)ROCCO S 120 5.00 11.27  
SHIP IT 6 4 5 45   36 410¾ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 30% 2.30 2.48  
SHES A SECRET 4 2 2 23   4513¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 10.13  
FLORIS 7 6 7 710½   613 623¼ (duvall willi)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 15.00 5% 19.00 43.56  
SOCIAL MANDATE 5 1 32 6   715 734 (hancock a)CANNON DECLAN 122 4.00 27% 2.70 5.29  
SCR  MONOCACY               (king l)CASTANON L 122 15.00    
 
ELP-4   06/24/2023 5610ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
:242 :483 1:122 1:362   1:423   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SAHLABIYA 6 6 1 11 1½ 1½ 1¼ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 2.00 53% 0.90 1.01 W
LEMON BOMB 2 1 5 54 4 32¼ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00 6.50 P
CALLIE'S GRIT 5 3 3 3 2½ 2½ 3(sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 23% 3.40 2.12 S
STAY LOST 3 5 6 65 6 44(casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00 14.31  
NO GUILT 1 2 8 76 76 56 5(lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 5% 19.00 28.86  
FROTHY 8 10 10 109 9 68 6(devaux cherie)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00 21.29  
RETROSPECT 7 9 9 97 87 77(oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 32.35  
RESOURCE 4 4 7 87 10 911½ 812½ (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 26.20  
11  PAINT ME PERFECT 10 8 2 21 32 810½ 917½ (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 118 12.00 5% 19.00 25.91  
10  GLAMOUR ANNA 9 7 43 4 5 1014 1023 (navarrete anna)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00 65.94  
SCR  AGENT               (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
SCR  HOLA GATA               (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00    
SCR  HOLY FOLEY               (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 10.00    
SCR  MILIEU               (mott i)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00    
 
ELP-5   06/24/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
:241 :472 1:112 1:24   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PIGALLE 2 4 5 5 1nk 11(drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.00 16% 5.10 1.94 W
LUNA MOTH 3 3 42 41 5 53 2(vanden brittan)EMIGH A 118 2.00 40% 1.50 3.00 P
SHELL SHOCK 1 1 1 1½ 2nk 23(hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.50 2.27  
FORTUNE BOUND 4 2 2 3½ 4 43 45 (sims a)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00 12% 7.20 12.20  
GRAY FROST 5 5 32 2½ 3.2 357 (hess b)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 3.12  
SCR  I'MHEREFORTHEPARTY               (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00    
 
ELP-6   06/24/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
:243 :48 1:12 1:241   1:364   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPRINKLEHEAD 2 2 2nk 2nk 21 11 1(barkley jason)GRAHAM J 126 8.00 5.99  
SMOKIN' HOT 4 3 1nk 1nk 11 21 2(wong jonathan)NAVAS YOEL 111 4.50 11% 8.10 5.93 P
BODOCK 1 4 5 52 6 33(cano munoz)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 8.00 13% 6.80 5.55 S
LONG CROW 7 6 4 31 42 44(asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 28% 2.50 2.26  
JOB SECURITY 5 5 7 7 7 657 (pessin l)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 4.00 9.03  
MADISON LUVS DUKE 6 7 6 6 32 5612 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.50 21% 3.70 1.96  
CRIMINAL DEFENSE 3 1 31 4 5 7712¾ (barnett c)LANERIE J 124 20.00 33.81  
SCR  RIVER BOY               (claire alex)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00    
 
ELP-7   06/24/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 3 F PT- 3:50
:214 :442 1:10     1:161   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAGICAL LUTE 2 8 812 810¾   42 1(wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 14.90  
MO TOWN MAYHEM 3 6 68 6   32(casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 52% 0.90 3.37 P
IN COLOR 1 5 4 43   21 3(d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00 20.23  
MISS PEABODY 8 4 5 56   53 4(newton troy)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 21.45  
GRAND LOVE 4 2 1½ 11   11 5(asmussen steven )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 2.50 13% 6.40 0.67  
ERVADEAN 6 3 3 33   6611¼ (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 118 6.00 16.94  
CHARRIERE 5 1 2½ 21   7721 (mckeever andrew)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00 7.07  
BENNYKAYANDSUZYTOO 7 7 711 7   89 827 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 10.00 7% 13.70 18.61  
SCR  WILLOW BEND               (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00    
 
ELP-8   06/24/2023 5280ft TURF FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
:243 :472 1:111 1:231   1:35   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
POLICY OPTION 7 8 9 9 7 3½ 1¼ (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 8.00 7.61  
10  BLUE DEVIL 10 5 2½ 2½ 2nk 1½ 2¼ (hiles jeff )HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00 8% 12.10 8.60 P
LINCOLN HIGHWAY 5 10 10 10 8 83(oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 5.00 29% 2.40 7.20 S
DUNEDIN 6 3 4 4 4 41 4(danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 9.99  
TAKING CANDY 2 9 7 6 6 63 52 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 2.22  
GAMER 1 2 5 5 5 76(walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 6.00 5.05  
PRINCIPE D'ORO 4 4 32 3 32 57(pletcher a)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 3.50 39% 1.60 3.52  
WAKE SURF 3 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 2½ 8(arnold george )LANDEROS CHRIS 124 10.00 5% 19.00 26.56  
IM A MODEST MAN 8 7 6 7 9 9910¼ (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 111 20.00 73.59  
MOONSTRIKE (GB) 9 6 8 8 10 101022 (engler jeff)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00 29.01  
SCR  MAASAI WARRIOR               (leonard iii)BEJARANO R 124 12.00    
SCR  SOLID COUNTRY GOLD               (catalano wayne )CANNON DECLAN 124 12.00    
 
ELP-9   06/24/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Chicago Purse ($225K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:55
:221 :442 1:081     1:203   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SOCIETY 5 2 1½ 12   16 110¾ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 29% 2.50 2.19 W
DRIFAROS 6 1 2½ 22   26 210¾ (pompay terri)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00 5% 18.50 16.05 P
MATAREYA 2 3 33 34   36 312 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 0.80 45% 1.20 0.59 S
BE LIKE WATER 3 5 611 612½   510 413¾ (oliver victo)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 36.72  
HIDDEN CONNECTION 1 4 4 46   4513¾ (calhoun bre)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 5.18  
STELLA NOIR 4 6 5 511   611 618½ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 36.70  
 
ELP-10   06/24/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
:212 :45 :562     1:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KIGALI 3 2 11 12   13 1(bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 4.96  
BE THERE 6 6 76 7   52(zito p)BEJARANO R 124 10.00 9.08  
10  LIQUID ADDICTION (IRE) 9 1 21 22   23 34 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 53% 0.90 2.20 S
ZAPHOD 5 4 4 4   44(catalano way)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00 16.29  
BRAZILIAN FURY 7 5 3 3   356 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 118 4.00 9% 9.80 2.65  
YOUNGDUMBANDBROKE 4 7 911 911¾   868 (tomlinson a)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 5% 19.00 21.38  
ETERNAL BLISS 8 3 5 5   67 7(lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 16% 5.10 4.35  
HOME RUN HANK 1 8 810 810¾   9810 (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00 19.97  
HOLY MOLY ABRAHAM 2 9 6 6   79 912¼ (lovell dennis)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00 43.47  
SCR  CUORE SACRO               (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
SCR  JOINT VENTURE               (flint bernard )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
SCR  METALLURGIC               (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.