Handicappers' Race Results
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Ellis Park
Saturday - August 26, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
ELP-1   Win (3/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $5.38 $5.38  
ELP-2   Win (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $6.18 $6.18 0.18
ELP-3   Win (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $3.34 $3.34  
ELP-4   Win (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 1 $4.84 $4.84 0.84
ELP-5   Win (4/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $7.46 $7.46 1.46
ELP-6   Win (8/9/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 0 $27.76  
ELP-7   Win (1/6/3/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $20.42 $20.42 12.42
ELP-8   Win (5/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $13.30  
ELP-9   Win (2/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 0 $28.26  
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   08/26/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:231 :463 :59     1:054   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  MENDED WE STAND 3 1 11 11   13 13 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 2.00 61% 0.60 1.69 W
6  RATIFIED 6 5 53 32½   23 23 (moquett rona)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 1.80  
4  MRS. SPEAKER 4 3 63½ 66½   56½ 35¼ (hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00 6.80 S
1  MIDNIGHT XO 1 4 32 44   45½ 48¾ (hancock dana)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00 33.78  
2  GET BY 2 2 21 21   33½ 59½ (cano munoz)CHUAN MARTIN 124 5.00 12% 7.00 2.91  
8  MIDNIGHT SONATA 7 7 73¾ 76½   68½ 616¼ (walker paul)HESS SARA 114 20.00 23.06  
5  ELEGANT MOVES 5 6 42 55½   714½ 739¾ (pittman bonn)CARPIO J 119 30.00 31.79  
SCR  THE PRINCESS SAYS               (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50    
 
ELP-2   08/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:17
See original race card.
:231 :471 :591     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  REGAL RUMOR 3 1 2½ 2nk   11 16 (catalano way)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 4.00 72% 0.40 2.09 W
3  MAKEUP 2 4 1½ 1nk   21 26 (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 6.00 6% 15.90 4.60 P
6  HIGH SHOT 5 3 32 32   35 310 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 20.86  
9  LOOKSTER 7 5 44 44   46 410½ (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 2.47  
7  NOVARA 6 2 54 54½   57½ 514¼ (walsh brend)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 2.88  
5  BABE IN THE WOODS 4 6 64½ 65½   68 615 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 19.00 13.12  
2  GRAND PRAIRIE GAL 1 7 75½ 76   710 718½ (moquett ronald )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 19.33  
SCR  MUSICAL DIVA               (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.00    
SCR  WAMPUS KITTEN               (casse norm )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50    
 
ELP-3   08/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
See original race card.
:224 :46 :582     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SINNER'S SIN 3 1 2nk 11½   13½ 17 (moquett rona)CORRALES GERARDO 122 1.80 28% 2.60 0.67 W
2  MIDASWELLRUN 2 3 1nk 21½   23½ 27 (blair jordan)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 2.50 5.96  
5  STAND FOR FREEDOM 5 7 78½ 78   67½ 37¾ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 6.00 18.26  
4  SUPREMELY 4 2 44 34½   35 48 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 11% 8.20 7.26  
1  CAPTAIN JACK 1 4 32½ 55½   56½ 59¼ (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 26% 2.80 3.76  
7  BOLT ABOVE 7 6 55 45   46 610¾ (barkley jas)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 12.81  
6  GO VIRTUAL 6 5 67 67½   79 712 (gonzalez rein)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 30.00 55.51  
 
ELP-4   08/26/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:22
See original race card.
:23 :463 :583     1:05   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IAN GLASS 1 5 11½ 12   17 114 (vanden berg)TORRES A 122 1.80 48% 1.10 1.42 W
8  ONE LAST HAND 5 2 21½ 22   27 214 (barkley jas)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 1.47  
3  READY TO ROLL (IRE) 2 4 45 45½   310 318¼ (calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 5.00 29% 2.50 2.53 S
4  SILVER SEA 3 3 56 57½   410½ 424 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 117 15.00 10.29  
7  SHAPE OF YOU 4 1 32 33½   512½ 529¼ (pittman bonni)STILLION BROOKE 117 20.00 37.25  
SCR  JURA               (meah m)HEARD TYLER 122 8.00    
SCR  LOOKIN FOR LOKI               (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50    
SCR  MERLIN'S SONG               (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
 
ELP-5   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 2:53
See original race card.
:234 :473 1:132 1:262   1:393   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  PEIGNOIR 1 1 11½ 11 13 16 18¼ (brisset rodolphe)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 20% 4.10 2.73 W
9  PROMISEMEANEMPIRE 5 6 63¼ 42½ 44 26 28¼ (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 20.79  
7  AUDIOBOOK 4 4 53¼ 52½ 23 39 318 (brown chad )TORRES A 119 3.50 3.41  
3  CARARRA 2 2 21½ 21 33½ 412 422¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5.44  
4  SINGSATIONAL 3 3 31½ 31½ 54 513½ 531¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 22% 3.60 4.02  
10  PULA 6 5 43 63 68 619½ 645 (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 2.14  
SCR  EDWINA (IRE)               (catalano way)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00    
SCR  L. A. WOMAN               (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 21% 3.80    
SCR  SHE'S ALL ELLIE               (von hemel )RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00    
SCR  UMEBOSHI               (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 8.00    
 
ELP-6   08/26/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
See original race card.
:24 :483 1:133 1:27   1:404   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  KEEN CONTENDER 4 7 78 74¼ 55½ 45 11 (van thomas)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00 12.88  
8  SHE'S MAGIC 6 6 65½ 42 44 35 21 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 43% 1.30 2.76 P
2  RED JAG 1 3 11½ 1½ 1½ 13 31 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 5.31  
3  INSIGHTFUL MISS 2 4 21½ 2½ 2½ 23 48½ (williamson brian)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00 3.77  
6  BIRDIE ROSE 5 2 43½ 32 33½ 57 510½ (blair jordan)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 3.00 16% 5.30 4.69  
4  KING'S MISTRESS 3 1 32½ 52¼ 68½ 610½ 614 (ortiz al)PETERSON FERRIN 118 12.00 9.64  
9  STORM HAVEN 7 5 54½ 64¼ 78½ 712½ 729¼ (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 124 5.00 19% 4.40 3.21  
SCR  LITTLE GIA               (vaccarezza )TORRES A 124 5.00    
SCR  NEWYEARSPRESENT               (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00    
 
ELP-7   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:11 1:234   1:364   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  HIGHLAND FALLS 2 7 89¼ 84¾ 43 21½ 1¼ (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.50 7% 12.60 9.21 W
10  MO FIGHT 8 4 44 53 11 11½ 2¼ (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 5% 19.00 2.20 P
1  RIVALRY 1 1 32½ 21 32½ 32 32¾ (cox h)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 59% 0.70 0.95 S
8  LUNA VIEJA 6 6 56 42½ 63½ 54½ 46¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 26.58  
9  DISSOLVED 7 3 22½ 31½ 21 42 56¾ (casse norm )TORRES A 118 15.00 28.93  
6  FEAR OF UNION 4 5 66¼ 63 75½ 711 620 (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 7% 12.60 9.87  
5  PROVISIONAL 3 2 12½ 11 53 610½ 724½ (matejka pav)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 16.25  
7  ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN 5 8 77¾ 74½ 88½ 814 834¼ (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 13.28  
SCR  GAME WARDEN               (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
SCR  ZADORO               (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
 
ELP-8   08/26/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
See original race card.
:222 :452 1:102     1:17   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALEXA LOU 1 6 42½ 54½   32 1¼ (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 5.65  
8  PISTOL 6 3 2½ 2½   21½ 2¼ (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00 24% 3.20 1.96 P
5  HIGH CLASS 4 1 1½ 1½   11½ 32 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 2.50 36% 1.80 1.58 S
2  STORY HOUR 2 4 64 65   45 45¾ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 6.00 3.50  
4  BEAUXS ARTES 3 5 53½ 44   69 512¼ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 8% 11.20 23.60  
6  PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS 5 2 32½ 33½   58 612½ (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 12.36  
SCR  SONADOR               (hernan)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 15.00    
SCR  STELLAR LILY               (moquett rona)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50    
 
ELP-9   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:07
See original race card.
:244 :482 1:132 1:253   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SANT' ANTIMO 2 1 1½ 2nk 1nk 11 1¾ (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 20.00 13.13  
9  REDEMPTION TIME 6 5 41½ 62¼ 3.2 21 2¾ (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 8.00 2.26  
4  LONG CROW 3 6 62¼ 51¾ 52¼ 43½ 33½ (shorter aar)TORRES A 123 8.00 8.56  
7  HAVILDAR 5 4 31½ 31½ 41¾ 54½ 44¾ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50 26% 2.80 1.72  
6  NERVES OF STEEL 4 3 2½ 1nk 2nk 33 57¾ (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 3.00 15% 5.60 3.49  
2  OSCAR AWARD 1 2 51¾ 41¾ 62¾ 66½ 615¾ (ortiz alex)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 30% 2.40 6.07  
SCR  ALL CHOKED UP               (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00    
SCR  CADILLAC CANDY               (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
SCR  NIGHT EFFECT               (mott riley)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
SCR  SMOKEY MANDATE               (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.50    
SCR  TRIGGER HAPPY               (cano juan )RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00    
SCR  WINNEMAC AVENUE               (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.