Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 26, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (3/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/4)-(3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/4)-(4/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/4)-(4/3/5)-(3/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-2   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/5)-(3/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(3/1/4)-(1/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(1/3)-(4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/3)-(4/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(4/2)-(8/9/6) 12 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-5   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/2)-(8/9/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(8/9/6)-(1/3/6/10) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ELP-6   WIN (8/9/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/9/6)-(8/9/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/9/6)-(8/9/6)-(8/9/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/9/6)-(1/3/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/9/6)-(1/3/6/10)-(5/8/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-7   WIN (1/3/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/6/10)-(1/3/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/6/10)-(1/3/6/10)-(1/3/6/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/6/10)-(5/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/6/10)-(5/8/4)-(2/7/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-8   WIN (5/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/4)-(5/8/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/8/4)-(5/8/4)-(5/8/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/8/4)-(2/7/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
ELP-9   WIN (2/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/6)-(2/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/6)-(2/7/6)-(2/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/26/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT XO Aug01 Jun08 Mar18 Feb18 Jan26 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00    
2  GET BY Aug11 Jul08 Jun15 May19 Apr19 (cano muno)CHUAN MARTIN 124 5.00 12% 7.00    
3  MENDED WE STAND Aug09 Jun02 Apr23 Mar05 Jan22 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 2.00 61% 0.60    
4  MRS. SPEAKER Aug01 Jun27 Jun06 May10   (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  ELEGANT MOVES Aug11         (pittman bo)CARPIO J 119 30.00    
6  RATIFIED Jul29 Jun27 Apr21 Mar26 Mar05 (moquett ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00    
SCR  THE PRINCESS SAYS Jul31 Jun02 May14 Apr12 Mar16 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50    
8  MIDNIGHT SONATA Aug06         (walker paul)HESS SARA 114 20.00    
 
ELP-2   08/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MUSICAL DIVA Jul31         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
2  GRAND PRAIRIE GAL         (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of MARTZ by SCAT DADDY)
3  MAKEUP         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00 6% 15.90    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of DANCE QUEEN by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
4  REGAL RUMOR Jul31         (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 4.00 72% 0.40    
  (by KANTHAROS out of BACK OFF by PUT IT BACK)
5  BABE IN THE WOODS         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of SLANT OF LIGHT by BROKEN VOW)
6  HIGH SHOT         (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of SMART SHOT by SKIPSHOT)
7  NOVARA         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SENTIERO ITALIA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  WAMPUS KITTEN         (casse nor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of MISS LUNA by HENNY HUGHES)
9  LOOKSTER         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SEA LEVEL DRIVE by MALIBU MOON)
 
ELP-3   08/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAPTAIN JACK Apr12 Mar19 Feb04     (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 26% 2.80    
2  MIDASWELLRUN Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May19 Nov19 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 2.50    
3  SINNER'S SIN Jul07 Apr23 Jan20 Dec17 May28 (moquett ro)CORRALES GERARDO 122 1.80 28% 2.60    
4  SUPREMELY Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May19 Apr21 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 11% 8.20    
5  STAND FOR FREEDOM Jul31 Jun10 Apr21 Mar04 Jan25 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 6.00    
6  GO VIRTUAL Aug04 Jan01 Dec08 Oct19 Oct01 (gonzalez re)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 30.00    
7  BOLT ABOVE Jul31 Jun06 Apr28 Apr07 Jan06 (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
 
ELP-4   08/26/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IAN GLASS Aug10 Jul19 Jun01 May21 Mar18 (vanden be)TORRES A 122 1.80 48% 1.10    
SCR  MERLIN'S SONG Jul14 May16 Mar18 Feb24 Jan27 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
3  READY TO ROLL (IRE) Jun16 May28 May05 Apr08 Mar24 (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 5.00 29% 2.50    
4  SILVER SEA Mar09 Feb15 Jan26 Jan11 Dec03 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 117 15.00    
SCR  LOOKIN FOR LOKI May16 Apr14 Apr01 Feb26 Jan14 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50    
SCR  JURA Jun20 May18 Apr21 Mar30 Aug01 (meah m)HEARD TYLER 122 8.00    
7  SHAPE OF YOU Jul30 Jun14 May10 Nov21 Nov01 (pittman bon)STILLION BROOKE 117 20.00    
8  ONE LAST HAND Jul14 Jun15 May05 Apr29 Apr20 (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00    
 
ELP-5   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 2:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHE'S ALL ELLIE Aug01         (von heme)RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of SHE'S ALL IN by INCLUDE)
2  PEIGNOIR Jul31         (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 20% 4.10    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BEEHIVE HAIRDO by FLAT OUT)
3  CARARRA         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SEACRETTINA by SEA OF SECRETS)
4  SINGSATIONAL Aug05         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 22% 3.60    
  (by AUDIBLE out of STIFLED HEIRESS by MUNNINGS)
SCR  EDWINA (IRE)         (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00    
  (by CAERLEON out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  UMEBOSHI Jul22         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of SWEETGRASS by KOKAND)
7  AUDIOBOOK         (brown cha)TORRES A 119 3.50    
  (by AUDIBLE out of POOH CORNER by QUACK)
SCR  L. A. WOMAN         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 21% 3.80    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of TEAMMATE by A.P. INDY)
9  PROMISEMEANEMPIRE         (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of PROMISE ME MORE by MORE PLEASURE)
10  PULA         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of CONQUEST SUPERSTEP by SUPER SAVER)
 
ELP-6   08/26/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NEWYEARSPRESENT Jul08 Jun18 Jun02 May05 Apr01 (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00    
2  RED JAG Jul08 Apr23 Mar09 Feb08 Nov30 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
3  INSIGHTFUL MISS Jul31         (williamson bri)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
4  KING'S MISTRESS Aug01 Jul05 Jun08 Jan13 Dec03 (ortiz john )PETERSON FERRIN 118 12.00    
5  KEEN CONTENDER Aug01 Jun30 May19 Apr15 Mar16 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
6  BIRDIE ROSE Aug01 Jul08 May02 Sep24   (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 3.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  LITTLE GIA Aug01 Jun08 Apr09 Mar31 Aug14 (vaccarezz)TORRES A 124 5.00    
8  SHE'S MAGIC Jul23 Jun03 Apr29 Mar26 Sep18 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 43% 1.30    
9  STORM HAVEN Jul08 May29 Oct26 Sep16   (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 124 5.00 19% 4.40    
 
ELP-7   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIVALRY Jul30         (cox h)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 59% 0.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of OUR LOVE TAP by TAPIT)
SCR  ZADORO Jul14         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of BERNARDA by BERNARDINI)
3  HIGHLAND FALLS         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.50 7% 12.60    
  (by CURLIN out of ROUND POND by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  GAME WARDEN Jun02 May02 Feb26 Jan14 Oct15 (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
  (by TAPIT out of GLORY AND POWER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  PROVISIONAL         (matejka p)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of BUBBLER by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  FEAR OF UNION Jul16 May06       (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 7% 12.60    
  (by UNION RAGS out of HOLIDAYS SARATOGA by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
7  ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN         (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of LETCHWORTH by TIZNOW)
8  LUNA VIEJA Jun29 Jun02 Apr14 Jan28 Dec31 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of COLONIAL EMPRESS by EMPIRE MAKER)
9  DISSOLVED Jul30         (casse nor)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of SWEET DREAMS by TRICK ME)
10  MO FIGHT Jul02         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CAT FIGHT by FIT TO FIGHT)
 
ELP-8   08/26/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALEXA LOU Nov12 Oct08       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
2  STORY HOUR May21 Apr27 Mar02 Jan18 Dec29 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 6.00    
SCR  SONADOR Aug16 Jun17 May20 May02 Apr13 (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 15.00    
4  BEAUXS ARTES Jun11 May25 May04 Mar23 Feb16 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 8% 11.20    
5  HIGH CLASS Jul09 Nov23 Oct30 Sep25 Jul31 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 2.50 36% 1.80    
6  PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS Aug01 May03 Apr12     (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00    
SCR  STELLAR LILY Apr22 Mar19 Feb24 Jan14 Dec11 (moquett ro)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50    
8  PISTOL Jul15 May14 Apr22 Mar24 Feb12 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00 24% 3.20    
 
ELP-9   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SMOKEY MANDATE Jul07 May06 Mar25 Mar11   (maker michael )CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.50    
2  OSCAR AWARD Dec02 Oct29 Sep14 Jul24   (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 30% 2.40    
3  SANT' ANTIMO Jul31 Jun29       (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
4  LONG CROW Aug04 Jun24 May26 May11 Apr08 (shorter a)TORRES A 123 8.00    
SCR  TRIGGER HAPPY Jul08 Jun15 Jun02 May12 Mar22 (cano jua)RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00    
6  NERVES OF STEEL Jul19 Jun01 Apr07 Mar05 Jan28 (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 3.00 15% 5.60    
7  HAVILDAR Jul21 Jun14       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50 26% 2.80    
SCR  ALL CHOKED UP Jun08 May21       (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00    
9  REDEMPTION TIME Jul21 Jun11 May14 Apr14 Oct16 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 8.00    
SCR  CADILLAC CANDY Jun23 Aug19 May19 Apr28   (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
SCR  NIGHT EFFECT Jun30 Jun02 May06 Apr01   (mott riley)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
SCR  WINNEMAC AVENUE Aug04 Jul09 May04 Apr22 Feb03 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.