Handicappers' Racing Form
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Ellis Park
Saturday - August 26, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
ELP-1   Win (3/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-2   Win (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-3   Win (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-4   Win (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00
ELP-5   Win (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00
ELP-6   Win (8/9/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-7   Win (1/3/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-8   Win (5/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-9   Win (2/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
 
ELP-1   08/26/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT XO Aug01 Jun08 Mar18 Feb18 Jan26 (hancock dana)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00    
2  GET BY Aug11 Jul08 Jun15 May19 Apr19 (cano munoz)CHUAN MARTIN 124 5.00 12% 7.00    
3  MENDED WE STAND Aug09 Jun02 Apr23 Mar05 Jan22 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 2.00 61% 0.60    
4  MRS. SPEAKER Aug01 Jun27 Jun06 May10   (hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  ELEGANT MOVES Aug11         (pittman bonn)CARPIO J 119 30.00    
6  RATIFIED Jul29 Jun27 Apr21 Mar26 Mar05 (moquett rona)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00    
SCR  THE PRINCESS SAYS Jul31 Jun02 May14 Apr12 Mar16 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50    
8  MIDNIGHT SONATA Aug06         (walker paul)HESS SARA 114 20.00    
 
ELP-2   08/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:17
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MUSICAL DIVA Jul31         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.00    
2  GRAND PRAIRIE GAL         (moquett ronald )MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
3  MAKEUP         (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 6.00 6% 15.90    
4  REGAL RUMOR Jul31         (catalano way)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 4.00 72% 0.40    
5  BABE IN THE WOODS         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  HIGH SHOT         (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
7  NOVARA         (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
SCR  WAMPUS KITTEN         (casse norm )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50    
9  LOOKSTER         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
 
ELP-3   08/26/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAPTAIN JACK Apr12 Mar19 Feb04     (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 26% 2.80    
2  MIDASWELLRUN Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May19 Nov19 (blair jordan)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 2.50    
3  SINNER'S SIN Jul07 Apr23 Jan20 Dec17 May28 (moquett rona)CORRALES GERARDO 122 1.80 28% 2.60    
4  SUPREMELY Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May19 Apr21 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 11% 8.20    
5  STAND FOR FREEDOM Jul31 Jun10 Apr21 Mar04 Jan25 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 6.00    
6  GO VIRTUAL Aug04 Jan01 Dec08 Oct19 Oct01 (gonzalez rein)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 30.00    
7  BOLT ABOVE Jul31 Jun06 Apr28 Apr07 Jan06 (barkley jas)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
 
ELP-4   08/26/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IAN GLASS Aug10 Jul19 Jun01 May21 Mar18 (vanden berg)TORRES A 122 1.80 48% 1.10    
SCR  MERLIN'S SONG Jul14 May16 Mar18 Feb24 Jan27 (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00    
3  READY TO ROLL (IRE) Jun16 May28 May05 Apr08 Mar24 (calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 5.00 29% 2.50    
4  SILVER SEA Mar09 Feb15 Jan26 Jan11 Dec03 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 117 15.00    
SCR  LOOKIN FOR LOKI May16 Apr14 Apr01 Feb26 Jan14 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50    
SCR  JURA Jun20 May18 Apr21 Mar30 Aug01 (meah m)HEARD TYLER 122 8.00    
7  SHAPE OF YOU Jul30 Jun14 May10 Nov21 Nov01 (pittman bonni)STILLION BROOKE 117 20.00    
8  ONE LAST HAND Jul14 Jun15 May05 Apr29 Apr20 (barkley jas)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00    
 
ELP-5   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 2:53
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHE'S ALL ELLIE Aug01         (von hemel )RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00    
2  PEIGNOIR Jul31         (brisset rodolphe)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 20% 4.10    
3  CARARRA         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
4  SINGSATIONAL Aug05         (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  EDWINA (IRE)         (catalano way)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00    
SCR  UMEBOSHI Jul22         (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 8.00    
7  AUDIOBOOK         (brown chad )TORRES A 119 3.50    
SCR  L. A. WOMAN         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 21% 3.80    
9  PROMISEMEANEMPIRE         (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
10  PULA         (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00    
 
ELP-6   08/26/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NEWYEARSPRESENT Jul08 Jun18 Jun02 May05 Apr01 (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00    
2  RED JAG Jul08 Apr23 Mar09 Feb08 Nov30 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
3  INSIGHTFUL MISS Jul31         (williamson brian)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
4  KING'S MISTRESS Aug01 Jul05 Jun08 Jan13 Dec03 (ortiz al)PETERSON FERRIN 118 12.00    
5  KEEN CONTENDER Aug01 Jun30 May19 Apr15 Mar16 (van thomas)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
6  BIRDIE ROSE Aug01 Jul08 May02 Sep24   (blair jordan)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 3.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  LITTLE GIA Aug01 Jun08 Apr09 Mar31 Aug14 (vaccarezza )TORRES A 124 5.00    
8  SHE'S MAGIC Jul23 Jun03 Apr29 Mar26 Sep18 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 43% 1.30    
9  STORM HAVEN Jul08 May29 Oct26 Sep16   (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 124 5.00 19% 4.40    
 
ELP-7   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIVALRY Jul30         (cox h)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 59% 0.70    
SCR  ZADORO Jul14         (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
3  HIGHLAND FALLS         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.50 7% 12.60    
SCR  GAME WARDEN Jun02 May02 Feb26 Jan14 Oct15 (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
5  PROVISIONAL         (matejka pav)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
6  FEAR OF UNION Jul16 May06       (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 7% 12.60    
7  ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN         (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
8  LUNA VIEJA Jun29 Jun02 Apr14 Jan28 Dec31 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
9  DISSOLVED Jul30         (casse norm )TORRES A 118 15.00    
10  MO FIGHT Jul02         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-8   08/26/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALEXA LOU Nov12 Oct08       (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
2  STORY HOUR May21 Apr27 Mar02 Jan18 Dec29 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 6.00    
SCR  SONADOR Aug16 Jun17 May20 May02 Apr13 (hernan)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 15.00    
4  BEAUXS ARTES Jun11 May25 May04 Mar23 Feb16 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 8% 11.20    
5  HIGH CLASS Jul09 Nov23 Oct30 Sep25 Jul31 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 2.50 36% 1.80    
6  PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS Aug01 May03 Apr12     (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00    
SCR  STELLAR LILY Apr22 Mar19 Feb24 Jan14 Dec11 (moquett rona)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50    
8  PISTOL Jul15 May14 Apr22 Mar24 Feb12 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00 24% 3.20    
 
ELP-9   08/26/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:07
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SMOKEY MANDATE Jul07 May06 Mar25 Mar11   (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.50    
2  OSCAR AWARD Dec02 Oct29 Sep14 Jul24   (ortiz alex)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 30% 2.40    
3  SANT' ANTIMO Jul31 Jun29       (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
4  LONG CROW Aug04 Jun24 May26 May11 Apr08 (shorter aar)TORRES A 123 8.00    
SCR  TRIGGER HAPPY Jul08 Jun15 Jun02 May12 Mar22 (cano juan )RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00    
6  NERVES OF STEEL Jul19 Jun01 Apr07 Mar05 Jan28 (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 3.00 15% 5.60    
7  HAVILDAR Jul21 Jun14       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50 26% 2.80    
SCR  ALL CHOKED UP Jun08 May21       (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00    
9  REDEMPTION TIME Jul21 Jun11 May14 Apr14 Oct16 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 8.00    
SCR  CADILLAC CANDY Jun23 Aug19 May19 Apr28   (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
SCR  NIGHT EFFECT Jun30 Jun02 May06 Apr01   (mott riley)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
SCR  WINNEMAC AVENUE Aug04 Jul09 May04 Apr22 Feb03 (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.