Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-2   EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00  2-1 $21.88 $9.88 82%
ELP-4   WIN (7/5/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00  7 $9.14 $1.14 14%
    EXA (7/5/4/3)-(7/5/4/3) 12 $2.00 $24.00  7-5 $25.84 $1.84 8%
    TRI (7/5/4/3)-(7/5/4/3)-(7/5/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00  7-5-4 $27.70 $15.70 131%
ELP-7   EXA (3/1/2/6/11)-(3/1/2/6/11) 20 $2.00 $40.00  3-2 $40.98 $0.98 2%
    DD (9/7/2/11/4)-(3/1/2/6/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00  9-3 $33.40 $8.40 34%
ELP-9   WIN (1/12/3/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00  6 $12.02 $2.02 20%
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:233 :47 1:121 1:25   1:382   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  PUNCTUALITY 3 2 32 32 11½ 15 110¾ (asmussen )TORRES A 118 0.40 43% 1.30 0.26 W
5  SECRET EDGE 4 5 55½ 56 47½ 39½ 210¾ (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 119 5.00 4.02  
2  CAMP GRAY 2 1 21 21 21½ 25 313¾ (foley greg)CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00 20% 4.00 13.58 S
1  LEFT POCKET MONEY 1 4 44 45 59½ 410½ 415¼ (pittman bonnie)NAVAS YOEL 117 15.00 14% 6.20 26.39  
7  BEAU DAY 6 3 11 11 36½ 515½ 530¼ (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00 10.44  
6  ALPHA LEA 5 6 635½ 636 634½ 635½ 651¼ (howard maryanne)BAYS BROOKE 108 20.00 32.45  
SCR  MOON OVER DUBAI               (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
 
ELP-2   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:241 :472 1:12 1:242   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  INTREPID HEART 2 1 42 32 1nk 12 1½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 123 1.60 36% 1.80 1.33 W
1  W W CRAZY 1 2 31 42½ 42 22 2½ (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00 31% 2.20 7.01 P
4  DIXIE DRAWL 4 3 54 53½ 54 56½ 36½ (cash l)BEJARANO R 123 8.00 6.06  
3  NEPOTISM 3 5 2½ 2½ 31 44½ 47¼ (scherer ma)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00 11% 7.90 4.12  
5  SPRINKLEHEAD 5 4 1½ 1½ 2nk 32½ 58 (barkley jason)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 5.00 2.09  
SCR  MOBSTER GUN               (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 123 2.00    
 
ELP-3   07/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:214 :451 :564     1:024   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  SHE FEELS PRETTY 5 10 87½ 78   33½ 1¼ (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 12.00 6.06  
  (by KARAKONTIE out of SUMMER SWEET by MORE THAN READY)
3  MYA'S HALO 2 4 1½ 1nk   13 2¼ (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 21% 3.80 3.04 P
  (by MORE THAN READY out of LIMONAIA by LEMON DROP KID)
6  WONDER WAVE (IRE) 4 8 54½ 54½   64¼ 32¼ (lynch a)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 4.32  
  (by U S NAVY FLAG out of AWOHAAM by IFFRAAJ (GB))
12  FANCY LOOKER 10 7 44 43   43½ 44½ (maker mic)TORRES A 119 5.00 14% 6.40 14.29  
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of BRANDYS SECRET by SECRET ROMEO)
10  MAGHRA (IRE) 8 2 65½ 66½   76¼ 55¾ (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 3.49  
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of MUNDUS NOVUS by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  TWO HEARTED 3 5 32½ 32½   54 66½ (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 43% 1.30 13.52  
  (by HEART TO HEART out of WELCOME ABOARD by AVENUE OF FLAGS)
9  WINSOME BEAUTY 7 3 2½ 2nk   23 77 (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 11.47  
  (by UPSTART out of MAZEL TOV by MAZEL TRICK)
8  STAR PERFORMANCE 6 6 108¼ 1010¾   99¼ 88 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00 9.24  
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of DREAM PROSPECT by MINESHAFT)
2  LADY OF DEVON 1 11 77½ 88¼   88¾ 99 (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 119 8.00 22.93  
  (by MUNNINGS out of SHOW ME THE CARATS by MORE THAN READY)
11  DON'T BRING CRAZY 9 9 119¾ 1112¼   1010¾ 1010 (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 5% 19.00 28.43  
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LILY MARIA by PAYNTER)
15  MASHKA 11 1 98 910¼   1115¾ 1127 (matejka pavel)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 38.23  
  (by DEMARCHELIER (GB) out of GDANSKING QUEEN by LANGFUHR)
SCR  EMANON               (corrigan jim)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by YOSHIDA (JPN) out of MILEHIGH BUTTERFLY by SKY MESA)
SCR  FINAL DRAFT               (casse mar)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of DOWNWIND by CURLIN)
SCR  LUCKY LADY SADIE               (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of LADY ACCLAMATION by ACCLAMATION)
SCR  SCARE               (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of BARTOLETTA by ARCH)
SCR  TIANMA               (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of HOME RULE by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  WHITE DOVE               (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of TIZWAY THAT WAY by TIZWAY)
 
ELP-4   07/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:221 :454 1:104     1:172   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  COEXIST 7 1 43 31   1½ 12½ (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 33% 2.00 3.57 W
5  CHARLEY RUDE 5 4 31½ 1½   2½ 22½ (mccarthy micha)CHUAN MARTIN 122 5.00 28% 2.60 1.49 P
4  HAMMERDONHAPPINESS 4 6 75½ 65½   46 37¾ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 15% 5.80 9.50 S
6  FAST GAL 6 3 54 54   56½ 49 (porter michael)COURT K 118 6.00 21.56  
1  TAMARA'S WAY 1 5 21 41   35½ 511¼ (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.00 4.67  
3  COLORATURA 3 2 11 2½   67½ 621 (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 6.00 5% 19.00 5.03  
2  HALO OF FIRE 2 7 65 77½   710½ 721¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 8.00 7.94  
 
ELP-5   07/16/2023 6600ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:251 :51 1:152 1:393   2:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  ANGLOPHILE 5 43½ 45 44½ 52¾ 51¼ 1½ (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 3.43  
6  MOUNT RUNDLE 6 54 56 64¾ 41¼ 1nk 2½ (nihei mi)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.50 12% 7.50 2.61 P
3  SOLID COUNTRY GOLD 3 32½ 32 32 31 4¼ 32 (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 123 5.00 5.46  
2  KING CURLIN 2 21½ 22 21½ 2nk 2nk 43¼ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 5.00 20% 3.90 2.32  
1  CARNIVORE 1 11½ 12 11½ 1nk 3.2 54¼ (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 16.30  
7  JARREAU 7 75½ 66¼ 54½ 74¼ 63¾ 67¾ (maker mic)TORRES A 123 1.60 47% 1.10 4.87  
4  SMOKEY LEE 4 65 78¼ 76¼ 63¼ 75¾ 713½ (cundiff waylon)NAVAS YOEL 116 30.00 5% 19.00 35.96  
SCR  FAMILY MAN               (medina rob)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.00    
 
ELP-6   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :47 :592     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN 8 3 2½ 1½   21 1hd (sims p)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 41% 1.40 4.19 W
  (by TAPITURE out of MISS GRIDLEY by STREET BOSS)
3  SHIMMERING ALLURE 2 4 1½ 2½   11 2hd (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 4.05  
  (by ENTICED out of SHIMMERING TALE by WILD AGAIN)
8  NAUGHTY MISS 7 8 104¾ 64   45 33¼ (roberson dennis)LANERIE J 119 15.00 24.73  
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of INCLUDING by INCLUDE)
7  UP ON THE EDGE 6 5 42½ 96¾   56 44 (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 18% 4.50 3.36  
  (by UPSTART out of GOLD EDGE by EDDINGTON)
5  CLASSY'N CONNECTED 4 7 53 42   33½ 54¾ (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.50 6.17  
  (by CONNECT out of SMART DORIE by SMART STRIKE)
2  WEE BIT O MISCHIEF 1 9 94¼ 86¼   78 68 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00 17% 4.80 5.37  
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LA CANELA by CONGRATS)
6  MO TWILIGHT 5 10 84¼ 76   68 78½ (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 8.00  
  (by MO TOWN out of PAST TWILIGHT by PULPIT)
10  NOSHUGFORPOP 9 2 73¼ 53   911 817½ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 18.86  
  (by HARD SPUN out of ENCHANTED EMMA by BODEMEISTER)
11  BEEN REAL BUSY 10 1 31½ 32   810 921¼ (mott rile)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00 22.20  
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of RUN A ROUND by BROKEN VOW)
4  ENTICING SUNSET 3 6 63 1010¼   1017 1028¼ (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 5% 19.00 17.93  
  (by ENTICED out of KENCHO by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
SCR  ANNAMARIA               (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of SOCKS by MACLEAN'S MUSIC)
 
ELP-7   07/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC11 FIRM Pea Patch Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:211 :441 :554     1:014   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  DARING DO 3 2 43 43   21 11 (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 118 4.50 44% 1.30 2.86 W
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MORE'N LIKELY by BLAME)
2  TWICE AS SWEET 2 6 75 64½   32 21 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 14% 6.30 4.64 P
  (by UNKNOWN out of SNOWBELL by SNOW CHIEF)
1  AMERICAN APPLE 1 7 1½ 11½   11 33½ (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 16% 5.40 1.77 S
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of MISS MARY APPLES by CLEVER TRICK)
5  ERNA 5 9 97 96¼   76 44 (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 14.63  
  (by CURLIN out of JUMBY BAY by CITY ZIP)
6  CONDENSATION 6 4 64½ 85¾   55 54 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 5% 19.00 12.31  
  (by FROSTED out of TIZ BRISKA by TIZNOW)
9  TWIRLED 8 3 2½ 21½   43½ 64½ (asmussen )TORRES A 118 4.50 5.42  
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of KEY D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
8  MORNIN' BOSS 7 5 54½ 53½   66 75¾ (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00 56.37  
  (by KANTHAROS out of FEELING BOSSY by COURAGEOUS CAT)
4  FOOLISH 4 8 86 74¾   86¼ 86½ (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00 41.60  
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of PEARL IN THE SAND by FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND)
11  ZOOM ERIN 9 1 31 31½   97¾ 912 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 11.35  
  (by MASTERY out of ZIPPIT E by MY GOLDEN SONG)
SCR  ISABEL ALEXANDRA (IRE)               (delgado gus)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of DUCHESS POWER by DUTCH ART (GB))
SCR  LILIESFORMILLIE               (hamilton sara)GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of TIGER CAT LILLY by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
ELP-8   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:231 :462 1:112 1:242   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  DAI VERNON 6 12 1212½ 128¾ 42½ 1nk 15¼ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 6.13  
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of CHARLADORA by SCAT DADDY)
11  SMILE MON 10 7 31 2½ 12 2nk 25¼ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 6.63  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of TENSAS PUNCH by WAR FRONT)
1  SINGLE DOT YAHT 1 1 62¼ 83¾ 710 55½ 36¾ (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 23% 3.40 3.89 S
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of ROTE by TIZNOW)
10  FEAR OF UNION 9 9 95¼ 95¼ 54½ 44½ 49 (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.50 14% 6.20 5.54  
  (by UNION RAGS out of HOLIDAYS SARATOGA by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
5  TEXAS PRIDE 4 11 1112 118¼ 66 66 510¼ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 56.09  
  (by CURLIN out of GIFTING by STREET CRY (IRE))
12  SMOKE WAGON 11 8 41½ 32 22 33½ 610¼ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 14.18  
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CRIMINAL MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
9  BOONE'S PATH 8 5 1nk 1½ 32 76¼ 717 (young ter)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 20.00 5% 19.00 31.61  
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of INDIAN CARLIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
14  SPEED INSTITUTE 12 10 72¼ 72¾ 1113¼ 1119¼ 839½ (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 6% 14.70 17.25  
  (by FROSTED out of HONOR INDY by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
2  CUSP 2 2 2nk 42 810¼ 816¼ 940½ (lobo pau)RODRIGUEZ A 113 2.50 33% 2.00 2.03  
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SWINGIT by VICTORY GALLOP)
3  HOLY MOLY ABRAHAM 3 4 82¾ 62¾ 1010¾ 918¼ 1043¾ (lovell denn)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00 73.50  
  (by RAISON D'ETAT out of REASON TO MEDAL by MEDALLIST)
6  TOWN BARBER 5 6 105½ 106¼ 1216¼ 1221¼ 1147 (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 26.49  
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DISCO BARBIE by PURE PRIZE)
8  DENIER 7 3 52 52½ 910¾ 1018¾ 1248¾ (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 27.28  
  (by CUSTOM FOR CARLOS out of DIXIE JEWEL by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  BOBWHITE BOBBY               (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
  (by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL out of SCHEDULE by BRIAN'S TIME)
SCR  CATEGORY TEN               (mott rile)TORRES A 118 20.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of GENRE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  CHIRON               (bush s)ELLIOTT JANE 124 10.00    
  (by PROTONICO out of DEEDS NOT WORDS by STREET SENSE)
 
ELP-9   07/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:213 :44 :554     1:02   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  L J'S EMMA 6 5 63¾ 55½   22 1½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 4.00 9% 9.60 5.01 W
1  HIDEKI 1 9 97¾ 67   44½ 2½ (walsh d)BEJARANO R 122 3.50 33% 2.00 2.18 P
5  EMPIRE OF MY OWN 5 3 11½ 12½   12 3½ (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 25.00 40.36  
7  DEVINE CHARGER 7 4 74¾ 87¾   65 41¾ (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 10.00 5% 19.00 9.52  
11  RUTHLESS RUA 9 2 21½ 22½   33 52¼ (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00 5.43  
13  ALWAYS AT EASE 11 10 108¾ 1011¼   98 63½ (lynch bri)TORRES A 118 12.00 24.57  
8  CHARRIERE 8 8 53½ 44   54½ 74½ (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00 26.65  
2  FOUR DAWN 2 6 43 77½   76 84¾ (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 15.07  
3  ONLY KIDDING 3 7 86¾ 99¼   108½ 96¼ (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 122 4.50 12% 7.30 6.50  
4  UP TO SOMETHING 4 11 119¼ 1112¾   1110½ 107¼ (oliver v)RODRIGUEZ A 113 20.00 38.81  
12  SHANNON 10 1 31½ 32½   87½ 118 (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 20% 4.00 5.20  
SCR  BUTTONS               (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  DESIGNED BY KITTEN               (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.