The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Ellis Park
Sunday - July 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 0 $7.40 -6.00
    Exacta (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 7-1 2 0 $22.38 -12.00
    Trifecta (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 7-1-2 3 0 $15.70 -3.00
ELP-2   Win (1/2/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $9.54 $9.54 1.54
    Exacta (1/2/5/7)-(1/2/5/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 5-7 2 1 $39.56 $39.56 15.56
    Trifecta (1/2/5/7)-(1/2/5/7)-(1/2/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 5-7-1 3 1 $19.38 $19.38 7.38
    Daily Double (1/2/3)-(1/2/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 7-5 2 0 $19.27 -12.00
ELP-3   Win (2/4/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $13.26 $13.26 5.26
    Exacta (2/4/6/7)-(2/4/6/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 2-7 2 1 $50.28 $50.28 26.28
    Trifecta (2/4/6/7)-(2/4/6/7)-(2/4/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 2-7-6 3 1 $31.25 $31.25 19.25
    Daily Double (1/2/5/7)-(2/4/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 5-2 2 1 $23.98 $23.98 7.98
    Pick Three (1/2/3)-(1/2/5/7)-(2/4/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 7-5-2 3 0 $49.00 -24.00
ELP-4   Win (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $33.10 -6.00
    Exacta (3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 1-5 2 0 $80.06 -12.00
    Trifecta (3/5/6)-(3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 1-5-3 3 0 $91.39 -3.00
    Daily Double (2/4/6/7)-(3/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 2-1 2 0 $89.77 -12.00
    Pick Three (1/2/5/7)-(2/4/6/7)-(3/5/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 5-2-1 3 0 $151.12 -24.00
ELP-5   Win (1/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $5.88 $5.88 -0.12
    Exacta (1/3/8)-(1/3/6/8) 9 $2.00 $18.00 1-8 2 1 $28.50 $28.50 10.50
    Trifecta (1/3/8)-(1/3/6/8)-(1/3/6/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 1-8-3 3 1 $70.10 $70.10 61.10
    Daily Double (3/5/6)-(1/3/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 1-1 2 0 $63.80 -9.00
    Daily Double (3/5/6)-(1/3/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 1-10 2 0 $12.38 -9.00
    Pick Three (2/4/6/7)-(3/5/6)-(1/3/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 2-1-1 3 0 $156.95 -18.00
    Pick Three (2/4/6/7)-(3/5/6)-(1/3/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 2-1-10 3 0 $42.80 -18.00
ELP-6   Win (4/5/7/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 9 1 1 $9.46 $9.46 -0.54
    Exacta (4/5/7/8/9)-(4/5/7/8/9) 20 $2.00 $40.00 9-8 2 1 $31.74 $31.74 -8.26
    Trifecta (4/5/7/8/9)-(4/5/7/8/9)-(4/5/7/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 9-8-3 3 0 $52.96 -30.00
    Daily Double (1/3/8)-(4/5/7/8/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 1-9 2 1 $19.54 $19.54 4.54
    Pick Three (3/5/6)-(1/3/8)-(4/5/7/8/9) 45 $0.50 $22.50 1-1-9 3 0 $134.06 -22.50
    Pick Three (3/5/6)-(1/3/8)-(4/5/7/8/9) 45 $0.50 $22.50 1-10-9 3 0 $34.65 -22.50
ELP-7   Win (2/5/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 0 $19.26 -8.00
    Exacta (2/5/6/10)-(2/5/6/7/10) 16 $2.00 $32.00 7-6 2 0 $102.46 -32.00
    Trifecta (2/5/6/10)-(2/5/6/7/10)-(2/5/6/7/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 7-6-2 3 0 $156.90 -24.00
    Daily Double (4/5/7/8/9)-(2/5/6/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 9-7 2 0 $55.32 -20.00
    Pick Three (1/3/8)-(4/5/7/8/9)-(2/5/6/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 1-9-7 3 0 $86.31 -30.00
ELP-8   Win (3/6/7/10/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 1 $6.62 $6.62 -3.38
    Exacta (3/6/7/10/11)-(3/6/7/10/11) 20 $2.00 $40.00 7-4 2 0 $89.14 -40.00
    Trifecta (3/6/7/10/11)-(3/6/7/10/11)-(3/6/7/10/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 7-4-5 3 0 $109.57 -30.00
    Daily Double (2/5/6/10)-(3/6/7/10/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 7-7 2 0 $38.76 -20.00
    Pick Three (4/5/7/8/9)-(2/5/6/10)-(3/6/7/10/11) 100 $0.50 $50.00 9-7-7 3 0 $75.39 -50.00
ELP-9   Win (2/4/9/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 11 1 1 $15.52 $15.52 7.52
    Exacta (2/4/9/11)-(2/4/6/9/11) 16 $2.00 $32.00 11-2 2 1 $46.86 $46.86 14.86
    Trifecta (2/4/9/11)-(2/4/6/9/11)-(2/4/6/9/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 11-2-1 3 0 $47.53 -24.00
    Daily Double (3/6/7/10/11)-(2/4/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 7-11 2 1 $32.63 $32.63 12.63
    Pick Three (2/5/6/10)-(3/6/7/10/11)-(2/4/9/11) 80 $0.50 $40.00 7-7-11 3 0 $106.49 -40.00
    Pick Three (2/5/6/10)-(3/6/7/10/11)-(2/4/9/11) 80 $3.00 $240.00 1-7-11 3 0 $1702.41 -240.00

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   07/30/2023 5280ft TURF FIRM Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
:243 :482 1:132 1:254   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COURAGEOUSLY 6 4 54 5 32 1nk 1nk (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 2.50 2.70  
CURRENT 1 1 2½ 23 53 42 2nk (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 123 5.00 27% 2.70 1.52 P
MINE OWN STAR 2 6 44 4 4 3½ 3(knippenberg)TORRES A 123 4.00 43% 1.30 4.73 S
MALIBU TIME 4 3 1½ 13 11 2nk 43 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 123 12.00 7.13  
ATTORNEY TIM 5 5 65 6 6 64 5(foley greg)LANERIE J 123 2.00 4.56  
PRINCESS NINA 3 2 3 33 21 56(hancock dana)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 5% 19.00 13.51  
SCR  BARRISTER TOM               (ewing michael)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 10.00    
SCR  SPRINKLEHEAD               (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 123 1.80    
 
ELP-2   07/30/2023 3630ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 F PT- 1:14
:23 :47 :592     1:054   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EDISTRUDIS 4 3 44 43   2nk 12 (gutierrez f)TORRES A 119 6.00 10% 9.10 3.77 W
KRICKLE 6 2 2½ 2nk   1nk 22 (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 2.00 24% 3.10 6.63 P
SARAH'S DREAM 1 4 3 3   3½ 33 (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00 34% 1.90 3.95 S
BACK ON TRACK 3 6 616 618   64(jazdzewski jon)GRAHAM J 119 15.00 21.83  
SILVER MAJESTY 5 5 55 55   5514 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 5.50  
VEECATION 2 1 1½ 1nk   45 615¾ (hancock jo)RODRIGUEZ A 114 4.00 7% 13.20 1.11  
SCR  HONKEY TONK TIME               (west w)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
 
ELP-3   07/30/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
:23 :462 :583     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GUCCI BOY 7 2 3.2 1   11 1½ (hobby steve)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00 19% 4.30 3.91 DQ↓2
INEXORABLE 2 6 6 42   21 2½ (contreras cipriano)EMIGH A 124 2.00 32% 2.20 5.63 W
FOREVER COOL 6 7 7 54   33(stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.00 18% 4.70 2.20 S
NIGHT CHANT 1 3 1nk 32   44(mott i)GRAHAM J 119 4.00 3.51  
HEZMORETHANREADY 4 1 4 6   6514¼ (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 119 12.00 10% 8.90 16.94  
BLUES ADMIRAL 5 4 2nk 2   5614¼ (moquett e)NAVAS YOEL 112 8.00 4.10  
MAGICAL THINKING 3 5 5 7   7717 (desormeaux keit)HEARD TYLER 119 10.00 12.84  
 
ELP-4   07/30/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 2:13
:222 :451 :571     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LARK'S MISCHIEF 1 2 1 1nk   12 1(asmussen st)TORRES A 120 20.00 15.55  
ZAMBEZI 4 3 3 31   32(asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 120 3.00 19% 4.30 2.19 P
STUD LOVIN 2 4 5 5   56 34 (maker michael)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 10.00 5% 19.00 12.68 S
MULLIKIN 5 5 4 2nk   22 4(brisset rodo)CORRALES GERARDO 120 0.80 58% 0.70 0.60  
QUICK HAMMER 3 1 2 44   46 5(cox h)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 5.97  
SCR  ELITE FORCES               (cox h)LANERIE J 122 5.00    
 
ELP-5   07/30/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
:214 :462 :581     1:042   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DARKROOM 1 7 6 68   51¼ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 3.00 28% 2.60 1.94 W
IN A JAM 7 1 1½ 11   12¼ (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.00 48% 1.10 3.82 P
COIN MINER 2 6 7 7   43¼ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 5% 19.00 19.47 S
COACH JIMI D 3 5 47 46   34(divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 4.06  
LIAM'S JOURNEY 8 2 5 56   25(maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 8.12  
YULETIDE GALLOP 5 3 32 21   66(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 5.51  
MCVICKER 4 4 2½ 3   7716¾ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 119 8.00 6.87  
RED FROST 6 8 811 812¼   815¼ 826½ (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00 33.80  
SCR  BOLD FORCE               (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
SCR  LIV TO THE MAX (IRE)               (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  NORMANDY HERO               (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 5.00    
 
ELP-6   07/30/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
:231 :463 :59     1:12   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DUPLICITOUS 9 1 3.2 2nk   1nk 13 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.00 8% 12.20 3.73 W
FOREVER HOME 8 7 4¼ 1nk   2nk 23 (shorter aaron)NAVAS YOEL 115 2.00 13% 6.50 3.02 P
L. A. STAR 3 9 9 65   53(lucas wa)RODRIGUEZ A 117 15.00 10.63  
JUDY'S WAY 5 6 7 7   646 (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 2.50 46% 1.20 3.48  
HOLDONTOYOURTIARA 2 4 2nk 4   457 (cook b)LANERIE J 122 10.00 6.69  
HIGH SPEED 1 8 6 3   34 69 (delacruz mejia )MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 21.88  
U SO MONEY BABY 6 3 85 8   7713½ (cundiff waylo)PETERSON FERRIN 122 30.00 14.83  
MABEE LUCKYNWILD 7 2 1nk 54   8819¼ (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00 9% 10.10 4.49  
SHAPE OF YOU 4 5 5½ 910¼   913 928¾ (pittman bonni)STILLION BROOKE 122 20.00 5% 19.00 39.65  
 
ELP-7   07/30/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
:221 :462 :581     1:042   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPONGE BATH 7 1 2½ 2nk   1nk 1(catalano wayne )MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 8.63  
DO YOUR JOB 6 2 32 4   33 2(desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 2.50 50% 1.00 6.95 P
AUGUSTINE RED 2 6 5 5   53(kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 4.00 27% 2.70 5.32 S
SUGA STEVE 3 3 1½ 1nk   2nk 4(bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00 10.24 DH
THUNDER BALL 8 5 8 6   64(o'neill doug)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 8.86 DH
KITTY HAWK 5 8 4 3   45 6(oliver victo)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00 2.92  
QUIET RUSH 4 4 65 7   77(arnold r)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00 20.57  
SHARPENYOURFAITH 1 9 910½ 9   913¼ 810¼ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 9.12  
10  KING BUKELE 9 7 7 86   812¼ 914¾ (torres erick )MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00 5% 19.00 44.26  
12  TANGO YANKEE 10 10 1017½ 1017½   1020¼ 1020¾ (maker micha)TORRES A 119 6.00 3.71  
SCR  ALL YOUR FAULT               (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 8.00    
SCR  MADARAAT               (mckeever andrew)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
SCR  UNCLE HAPPY               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50    
 
ELP-8   07/30/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
:221 :453 1:103     1:234   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PENSACOLA 7 1 3.2 11   12 1½ (brisset rodo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 51% 1.00 2.31 W
STRAIGHT AND LEVEL 4 5 72 32   22 2½ (pessin neil )HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 21.88  
RIVALRY 5 7 8 7   33¾ (cox h)TORRES A 124 8.00 4.66  
SHOWDOWN KING 3 6 1nk 21   45 410½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 6.00 10% 8.70 2.46  
10  GUADALAJARA 9 10 10 86   68 512¾ (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00 5% 19.00 26.77  
11  GILDED CRAKEN 10 11 95 6   58 615¾ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00 7.54  
ALILNALOT 6 4 6 4   7717 (catalano wayne )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 14% 6.10 10.28  
GREAT BARRIER 8 3 11 10   812 818 (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00 22.05  
DISSOLVED 2 8 2nk 53   913½ 932¼ (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 14.67  
NORBERT 1 9 5¾ 98   1016 1033¾ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 36.18  
12  HOLY MOLY ABRAHAM 11 2 4¼ 11100   11100 11100 (lovell dennis)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 50.00 38.59  
SCR  SPIELMAN               (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 3.00    
 
ELP-9   07/30/2023 5610ft TURF FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
:253 :502 1:143 1:374   1:434   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  JOHNY'S FIREBALL 9 5 11 11 11 12 1(casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 122 10.00 5% 19.00 6.76 W
MAHAAMEL 2 1 3 4 3 22 2(londono gene)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 54% 0.90 2.11 P
POLICY OPTION 1 8 9 9 8 73(cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 6.00 4.48  
STOLEN BASE 5 3 53 7 5 44(maker michael)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 3.50 8.25  
DHABAB (IRE) 6 9 7 6 7 65(vaughan edward)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 20.00 4.54  
CALL ME MIDNIGHT 4 2 64 53 42 363 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 15.00 9.10  
MR. BIG NEWS 7 6 4 3 21 55 7(calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 15.00 5% 19.00 16.19  
ALEJANDRO 3 7 86 8 9 88(asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 5.00 22% 3.70 8.24  
10  TAPAGE 8 4 21 21 6 99(cano munoz)CHUAN MARTIN 122 15.00 36.46  
SCR  COMMANDPERFORMANCE               (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
SCR  SEARCH ENGINE               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
SCR  THE QUEENS JULES               (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
SCR  UNINVITED GUEST               (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.