Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/3)-(1/7/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/3)-(1/7/5/2)-(2/7/6/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-2   WIN (1/7/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/5/2)-(1/7/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/5/2)-(1/7/5/2)-(1/7/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/5/2)-(2/7/6/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/5/2)-(2/7/6/4)-(6/5/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-3   WIN (2/7/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/6/4)-(2/7/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/6/4)-(2/7/6/4)-(2/7/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/6/4)-(6/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/6/4)-(6/5/3)-(8/1/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-4   WIN (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/3)-(6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/3)-(8/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/5/3)-(8/1/3)-(5/8/7/9/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-5   WIN (8/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/3)-(8/1/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/1/3)-(8/1/6/3)-(8/1/6/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/1/3)-(5/8/7/9/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/1/3)-(5/8/7/9/4)-(6/2/5/10) 60 $1.00 $180 
ELP-6   WIN (5/8/7/9/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/7/9/4)-(5/8/7/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/7/9/4)-(5/8/7/9/4)-(5/8/7/9/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/8/7/9/4)-(6/2/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/8/7/9/4)-(6/2/5/10)-(7/6/3/10/11) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-7   WIN (6/2/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/5/10)-(6/2/7/5/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/2/5/10)-(6/2/7/5/10)-(6/2/7/5/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/2/5/10)-(7/6/3/10/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5/10)-(7/6/3/10/11)-(2/4/9/11) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-8   WIN (7/6/3/10/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/6/3/10/11)-(7/6/3/10/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/6/3/10/11)-(7/6/3/10/11)-(7/6/3/10/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/6/3/10/11)-(2/4/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (2/4/9/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/9/11)-(2/4/9/6/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/4/9/11)-(2/4/9/6/11)-(2/4/9/6/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/30/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CURRENT May15 May03 Feb04 Dec11 Nov18 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 5.00 27% 2.70    
2  MINE OWN STAR Jun24 May31 Sep25 Aug24 Aug03 (knippenbe)TORRES A 123 4.00 43% 1.30    
3  PRINCESS NINA Jul09 Apr12 Mar17 Feb16 Jan04 (hancock dana)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  MALIBU TIME Jun15 May14 Apr29 Mar18 Feb17 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 123 12.00    
SCR  BARRISTER TOM Jul06 Jun17 Sep14 Sep01 Jun19 (ewing micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 10.00    
6  ATTORNEY TIM Sep01 Jul16 Jun03 Mar12 Feb10 (foley greg)LANERIE J 123 2.00    
7  COURAGEOUSLY Jul19 May13 Mar02 Feb04 Aug20 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 2.50    
SCR  SPRINKLEHEAD Jul16 Jun24 May25 Apr29 Apr01 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 123 1.80    
 
ELP-2   07/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SARAH'S DREAM         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00 34% 1.90    
  (by HARD SPUN out of RELENTLESS MISS by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
2  VEECATION         (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 114 4.00 7% 13.20    
  (by MO TOWN out of SURF RIDE by SCAT DADDY)
3  BACK ON TRACK         (jazdzewski jon)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
  (by PROSPECT PARK out of PEG'S JOURNEY by GOOD JOURNEY)
SCR  HONKEY TONK TIME         (west w)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of LEGION OF MERIT by DANZIG)
5  EDISTRUDIS Jun10         (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 6.00 10% 9.10    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of HOME AGAIN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  SILVER MAJESTY         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00    
  (by PAYNTER out of SCORECARD by TALE OF THE CAT)
7  KRICKLE Jul09 May26 May11 Apr19   (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 2.00 24% 3.10    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
 
ELP-3   07/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NIGHT CHANT Jun22         (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 4.00    
2  INEXORABLE Sep25 Jul16 Jun25     (contreras ciprian)EMIGH A 124 2.00 32% 2.20    
3  MAGICAL THINKING         (desormeaux ke)HEARD TYLER 119 10.00    
4  HEZMORETHANREADY Jul07 May30 May15 Aug26 Jul30 (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 119 12.00 10% 8.90    
5  BLUES ADMIRAL Mar04 Feb03       (moquett e)NAVAS YOEL 112 8.00    
6  FOREVER COOL Jul02 Jun04 May03 Apr14 Mar11 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.00 18% 4.70    
7  GUCCI BOY Jul09 Jun15 Apr08 Feb24 Jan28 (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00 19% 4.30    
 
ELP-4   07/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LARK'S MISCHIEF Jun23 May28 Apr08 Mar03 Jan21 (asmussen )TORRES A 120 20.00    
SCR  ELITE FORCES Jun25         (cox h)LANERIE J 122 5.00    
3  STUD LOVIN May28 May06 Sep08 Aug12   (maker micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  QUICK HAMMER Jul08 Oct29 Sep16     (cox brad )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00    
5  ZAMBEZI Jun25 May28 May05 Apr01   (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 3.00 19% 4.30    
6  MULLIKIN Jul02 May27 Apr08 Feb18   (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 120 0.80 58% 0.70    
 
ELP-5   07/30/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DARKROOM         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
  (by ENTICED out of TWENTY BLACK by E DUBAI)
SCR  LIV TO THE MAX (IRE)         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of WALL OF SAPPHIRE by LAWMAN (FR))
3  COIN MINER         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of REQUIRE by BLAME)
4  COACH JIMI D Jul15         (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of SHANGHAI SNOOKIE by SHANGHAI BOBBY)
5  MCVICKER         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 8.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of LIL' SASHA by WHYWHYWHY)
6  YULETIDE GALLOP         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 ★    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
7  RED FROST         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
  (by FROSTED out of BODEE BEAUTIFUL by BODEMEISTER)
8  IN A JAM Jul15 Jun24       (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.00 48% 1.10    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of YANKEE UNION by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
9  LIAM'S JOURNEY         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of LOUGH DERG by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  BOLD FORCE Jun24         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SCATTERED RAIN by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  NORMANDY HERO Jul01         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 5.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SWAN OF THE NILE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
 
ELP-6   07/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGH SPEED Jul09 May26 May14 Apr22 Mar26 (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
2  HOLDONTOYOURTIARA Jun16 May14 Apr22 Mar23 Feb25 (cook b)LANERIE J 122 10.00    
3  L. A. STAR Jul14 Jun24 Jun09 Dec08 Nov21 (lucas t )RODRIGUEZ A 117 15.00    
4  SHAPE OF YOU Jun14 May10 Nov21 Nov01 Oct13 (pittman bon)STILLION BROOKE 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  JUDY'S WAY Jun23 May26 Apr28 Mar11 Jan16 (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 2.50 46% 1.20    
6  U SO MONEY BABY Jul12 Jun10 Apr27 Mar17 Feb25 (cundiff way)PETERSON FERRIN 122 30.00    
7  MABEE LUCKYNWILD Jun30 Jun09 May19 Apr28 Apr02 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00 9% 10.10    
8  FOREVER HOME Jul07 Jun14 May04 Mar24 Feb24 (shorter aaron)NAVAS YOEL 115 2.00 13% 6.50    
9  DUPLICITOUS Jul09 May28 May10 Apr08 Jan28 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.00 8% 12.20    
 
ELP-7   07/30/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHARPENYOURFAITH         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of SWAKOPMUND by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
2  AUGUSTINE RED         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 4.00 27% 2.70    
  (by IRISH WAR CRY out of GROUP THERAPY by WESTERN FAME)
3  SUGA STEVE Jul03 May25 May03     (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of HELEN SUNG by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
4  QUIET RUSH         (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of QUIET BUSINESS by QUIET AMERICAN)
5  KITTY HAWK (GB)         (oliver vic)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of KOMBAT KITTY by WILDCAT HEIR)
6  DO YOUR JOB Jul12         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 2.50 50% 1.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SHAKEDOWN SISTER by PUT IT BACK)
7  SPONGE BATH         (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 ★    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of FOREVER VOW by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  MADARAAT         (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
  (by QURBAAN out of MUDREQAH by SEEKING THE GOLD)
9  THUNDER BALL         (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by MITOLE out of STRIKE ACCORD by SMART STRIKE)
10  KING BUKELE         (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of SUPER CUB by OLD TRIESTE)
SCR  ALL YOUR FAULT Jul12         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 8.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of WHOS TO BLAME by BLAME)
12  TANGO YANKEE         (maker mic)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FOREST LAKE by FORESTRY)
SCR  UNCLE HAPPY         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of VEXED by ARCH)
 
ELP-8   07/30/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NORBERT Jun18         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of OH WHAT A PRIZE by BLAME)
2  DISSOLVED         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of SWEET DREAMS by TRICK ME)
3  SHOWDOWN KING         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 6.00 10% 8.70    
  (by MINESHAFT out of B ROCKETT by AFTER MARKET)
4  STRAIGHT AND LEVEL         (pessin nei)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of FLY SWIFT by CITY ZIP)
5  RIVALRY         (cox brad )TORRES A 124 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of OUR LOVE TAP by TAPIT)
6  ALILNALOT Jun10 May13 Mar24 Feb25   (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 14% 6.10    
  (by TAPITURE out of LIL PRECIOUS by FORESTRY)
7  PENSACOLA Aug28         (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 51% 1.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of STORMY REGATTA by MIDSHIPMAN)
8  GREAT BARRIER Oct23         (ortiz joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of REEF POINT by BON POINT (GB))
SCR  SPIELMAN Nov26 Oct30 Oct01 Aug21 Jul22 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 3.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SASSY IMAGE by BROKEN VOW)
10  GUADALAJARA Feb18 Jan21       (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of AGUILERA by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
11  GILDED CRAKEN May14 Apr22       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of ORMOLU by INDIAN CHARLIE)
12  HOLY MOLY ABRAHAM Jul16 Jun24 May21     (lovell denn)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 50.00    
  (by RAISON D'ETAT out of REASON TO MEDAL by MEDALLIST)
 
ELP-9   07/30/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POLICY OPTION Jun24 Jun01 May13 Apr26 Apr12 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 6.00    
2  MAHAAMEL (IRE) Jul09 Jun11 May19 Feb24 Feb11 (londono ge)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 54% 0.90    
SCR  COMMANDPERFORMANCE Jun22 May25 Apr06 Aug07 Jul10 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
4  ALEJANDRO Jun11 Apr07 Feb18 Dec11 Nov02 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 5.00 22% 3.70    
5  CALL ME MIDNIGHT Jul01 Jun04 Nov26 Oct23 Sep10 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 15.00    
6  STOLEN BASE Jul09 May19 Dec26 Nov27 Oct29 (maker micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 3.50 ★    
SCR  UNINVITED GUEST Jul02 May11 Apr23 Feb11 Jan15 (mcgee paul)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
8  DHABAB (IRE)         (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 20.00    
9  MR. BIG NEWS Jul01         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  TAPAGE Jul02 Jun18 May13 Mar04 Jan25 (cano muno)CHUAN MARTIN 122 15.00    
11  JOHNY'S FIREBALL Jun02 May11 Feb22 Jan14 Feb25 (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  THE QUEENS JULES Jul03 Mar10 Feb09 Dec18 Nov12 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
SCR  SEARCH ENGINE May25 Feb28 Feb11 Dec11 Nov04 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.