Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Sunday - August 21, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   08/21/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 2 F PT- 1:50
See original race card.
:223 :462 1:12     1:184   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  T MAX 5 1 11 11   13 15¾ (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 119 8.00 ★ 8.25  
8  AMARYLLIS 6 4 41½ 42½   34 25¾ (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 24% 3.10 3.87 P
2  CLOUDY BAY 2 2 21 21   23 311 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 8.00 ★ 5.60 S
5  GATHERING STORM (SAF) 4 3 31½ 32½   411½ 426½ (cox h)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 50% 1.00 0.69  
4  LUCKY PHOENIX 3 5 63½ 58   517 538½ (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.50 ★ 8.82  
1  TOP MULE 1 6 53 69   618½ 659¾ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 16.73  
SCR  DESSERT FIRST               (lopez elias)SANJUR SANTO 119 15.00    
SCR  LADAN               (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
 
ELP-2   08/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
See original race card.
:222 :461 :58     1:041   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  BIG SPORT 6 4 41¼ 41¼   52½ 11¼ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 1.40 52% 0.90 0.31 W
1  SHAPE OF YOU 1 5 1nk 1nk   2½ 21¼ (pittman bon)STILLION BROOKE 117 12.00 ★ 8.59 P
6  MISS GETTY UP 5 3 51¾ 51¾   1½ 31¼ (parker donald)BECKMAN ALICE 110 20.00 33.64  
4  AWESOME FAMILY 4 2 2nk 2nk   32 41¾ (rodriguez)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00 ★ 13.83  
8  CREEKMORE 7 1 3.2 3.2   42 52¼ (cox e)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 8.00 11% 7.90 6.98  
2  DUEL FUEL 2 7 74¼ 64¼   76 62¾ (foster eric)HOLMES GAGE 115 10.00 10.49  
3  SIR ACEALOT 3 6 63¾ 74¼   64 73½ (rodriguez eduardo)DIAZ RENE 117 12.00 24.00  
SCR  CYRIL'S BOY               (poulos dee)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.00 15% 5.50    
 
ELP-3   08/21/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
See original race card.
:234 :472 1:122 1:25   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  CHASING RAINBOWS 6 5 11 11 1½ 11 11 (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.50 17% 4.70 2.68 W
1  TEN GAUGE 1 1 41½ 41½ 32½ 21 21 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 13% 6.90 4.77 P
3  JOLLY TOMMY 3 3 61¾ 52 44½ 42½ 34¼ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 23.88  
7  BOURBON HEIST 7 6 31 31 2½ 31 45½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 46% 1.20 1.49  
2  CHROME'S RIGHT 2 4 83¼ 73½ 66 66¼ 510 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 ★ 10.70  
5  ALEXIS N NIKO 5 9 912¾ 98 88¼ 56 610¼ (thurman rhonda)EMIGH A 118 20.00 45.63  
8  TRIPLE OPTION 8 8 51¾ 62½ 76¼ 79¼ 721¾ (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 8.12  
10  BOLD MEDICATION 10 7 21 21 56 810¾ 826¾ (calhoun will)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 17.85  
4  HE'S A ANGEL 4 2 72¾ 85 913¼ 916¾ 934¼ (macias adolfo)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 118 6.00 ★ 37.39  
9  ISLAND MISCHIEF 9 10 1019¾ 1017 1020¼ 1022¼ 1042½ (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 118 12.00 32.20  
 
ELP-4   08/21/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:14
See original race card.
:232 :463 1:114 1:25   1:39   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  GUANA CAY 3 5 41½ 42 42½ 3½ 1¼ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 5.00 46% 1.20 2.18 W
5  NEW ROO 5 2 3½ 31 2nk 1½ 2¼ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 26% 2.80 4.33 P
2  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) 2 4 1½ 11 1nk 2½ 33¼ (meah m)DIAZ RENE 117 6.00 ★ 7.36 S
1  LADY LILLY 1 3 63¼ 63¾ 31 42 44¾ (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.50 ★ 6.20  
6  LINDALEVESOLTA (ARG) 6 6 51¾ 52¼ 55 59 516½ (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 2.00 ★ 1.76  
4  FRONT STREET 4 1 2½ 21 65¼ 610½ 631 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 10.07  
 
ELP-5   08/21/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
See original race card.
:242 :472 1:12 1:243   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  DILMUNIA 2 3 12 12½ 12½ 12½ 13 (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 12.00 7.17  
1  LAYLA'S SONG 1 1 54 56 43½ 22½ 23 (leonard g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 8.90  
8  MAYSVILLE MISS 6 4 42½ 44½ 32½ 33½ 35½ (hamilton s)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00 ★ 1.82 S
9  NO COMMENT 7 7 65 66 53¾ 55 46 (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.50 44% 1.30 1.69  
5  MADRE DI GRANDEZZA 4 2 32 22½ 22½ 44½ 57 (ortiz alexan)DIAZ RENE 113 6.00 20% 4.00 5.60  
4  BELLA MORNING 3 5 76 78½ 67¼ 67½ 69¾ (pittman bonni)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00 9.84  
7  MAYA'S WISH 5 6 22 33 79¼ 714½ 722½ (barkley jas)HERRFORTH ERICA 108 15.00 47.04  
SCR  BRIE'S LIL' BIT               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  DOGWOODS BECCA               (scott anthony )MILLER CHASE 118 6.00    
SCR  KENKEAD               (schlenk k)HUGHES CARLY 117 50.00    
SCR  MS MERRABEL               (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 118 3.50 13% 6.80    
 
ELP-6   08/21/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 4:10
See original race card.
:223 :46 1:12     1:26   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  COUNTERSPY 4 4 31½ 31½   11 11 (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 28% 2.60 4.04 W
8  MAGNIFICENT MILE 8 2 21 2nk   21 21 (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 2.91  
7  SPIELMAN 7 6 53½ 43   45 39¼ (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 ★ 8.25 S
3  EL CERRITO 3 7 66 64¼   55 414¼ (asmussen steven)LANERIE J 119 4.00 ★ 9.29  
2  SPANISH DOUBLOON 2 5 43 74¾   66 516½ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 42% 1.40 4.39  
10  AIRTIME 10 1 11 1nk   34 617½ (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00 5% 19.00 11.28  
9  JUL QUIST 9 3 812 810¾   810½ 718½ (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 7.07  
5  ROCKING ROCKET 5 9 76½ 54   710 826½ (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 7.86  
1  MARTINI SHOT 1 8 912½ 919¾   917½ 930¼ (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 42.53  
6  AIRBIZ 6 10 1020½ 10100   10100 10100 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 36.03  
 
ELP-7   08/21/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($63K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
See original race card.
:243 :481 1:121 1:354   1:413   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREYES CREEK 1 1 44 55 41¼ 21½ 1nk (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 ★ 2.17  
3  BULLSEYE BUN 3 3 21 21½ 2nk 11½ 2nk (green troy)BEJARANO R 122 15.00 12.38  
8  RISK MANAGER 7 7 65 76¾ 73¼ 42 3¾ (gut)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 124 6.00 9% 9.70 3.26 S
6  SUPREMACY 6 6 54 44 31 52½ 44¼ (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.50 16% 5.10 5.34  
10  WHISKEY DOUBLE 8 8 75¼ 66½ 62¾ 64 56 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 122 10.00 4.95  
2  DYN O MITE 2 2 11 11½ 1nk 32 68¾ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 3.50 43% 1.30 4.39  
5  MY SIXTH SENSE 5 5 33 34 52¾ 75½ 710¾ (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00 17.45  
4  YOU'RE TO BLAME 4 4 86¾ 88¾ 86¼ 88 811¾ (dyer john)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 5% 19.00 43.10  
SCR  BETWITHBOTHHANDS               (hernandez )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00    
SCR  NEXT               (cowans wil)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
 
ELP-8   08/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
See original race card.
:222 :462 :574     1:033   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  WILLTORUN 4 6 53 42½   2nk 11 (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 3.38  
2  MOUNT KISCO 2 4 42 31½   31 21 (howell jess)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 13.76  
1  IT'S A BANG BANG 1 3 11½ 11½   1nk 31 (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00 3.49  
8  STROKE OF MIDNIGHT 6 5 76½ 75¼   52¼ 41¾ (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 6.28  
7  GREYS THE BOY 5 2 21½ 21½   41¼ 52 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 23% 3.30 2.90  
3  BOOYAH 3 1 32 53½   64¼ 67 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.50 ★ 3.79  
9  MY ROAD 7 7 64 65   76¾ 711 (rider m)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 9.84  
SCR  BRESLAU               (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 46% 1.20    
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN               (barnett bobby )SANJUR SANTO 119 3.50 ★    
SCR  GOODASIWONSWAS               (warpool shane)HOLMES GAGE 112 15.00    
SCR  MASTER GAME               (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 7% 14.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.