Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - August 21, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/21/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33K) 2 F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOP MULE Jul22         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00    
2  CLOUDY BAY         (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 8.00 ★    
SCR  DESSERT FIRST         (lopez elias)SANJUR SANTO 119 15.00    
4  LUCKY PHOENIX         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.50 ★    
5  GATHERING STORM (SAF) Jul31         (cox h)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 50% 1.00    
SCR  LADAN Jul31 Jun29       (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
7  T MAX         (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 119 8.00 ★    
8  AMARYLLIS         (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 24% 3.10    
 
ELP-2   08/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 FIRM Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAPE OF YOU Aug06 Jun30 May31 May10 Apr27 (pittman bon)STILLION BROOKE 117 12.00 ★    
2  DUEL FUEL May18 Apr21 Apr01 Feb26 Feb17 (foster eric)HOLMES GAGE 115 10.00    
3  SIR ACEALOT Jun24 Jun10 May20 May14 Apr30 (rodriguez eduardo)DIAZ RENE 117 12.00    
4  AWESOME FAMILY Jul17 Jun18 Jun10 May27 Apr23 (rodriguez)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00 ★    
SCR  CYRIL'S BOY Jul31 Jul08 Jun17 May27 May06 (poulos dee)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.00 15% 5.50    
6  MISS GETTY UP Jun28 May06 Apr19 Mar09 Feb17 (parker donald)BECKMAN ALICE 110 20.00    
7  BIG SPORT Jul22 Jun24 Jun03 Apr24 Mar25 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 1.40 52% 0.90    
8  CREEKMORE Jul23 Jul05 Jun24 May28 Mar11 (cox e)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 8.00 11% 7.90    
 
ELP-3   08/21/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEN GAUGE Jan29 Jan02       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 13% 6.90    
2  CHROME'S RIGHT Jul24 Jun24 Jun02 Mar31 Mar11 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 ★    
3  JOLLY TOMMY Jul10         (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
4  HE'S A ANGEL Jul24 Jul09       (macias adolfo)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 118 6.00 ★    
5  ALEXIS N NIKO Jul24 Jun24 May27 Apr03   (thurman rhonda)EMIGH A 118 20.00    
6  CHASING RAINBOWS May07         (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.50 17% 4.70    
7  BOURBON HEIST Jul31 Jun05 May07 Apr09 Feb26 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 46% 1.20    
8  TRIPLE OPTION Jul31         (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
9  ISLAND MISCHIEF         (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 118 12.00    
10  BOLD MEDICATION Jul16 Jun18       (calhoun will)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
 
ELP-4   08/21/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY LILLY Jul09         (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.50 ★    
2  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) Aug07 Jun11 May29 May03   (meah m)DIAZ RENE 117 6.00 ★    
3  GUANA CAY Jul18 May11 Apr08 Mar19 Feb20 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 5.00 46% 1.20    
4  FRONT STREET Aug03 Jun23 Apr15 Mar19 Jan14 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
5  NEW ROO Jun29 Jan15       (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 26% 2.80    
6  LINDALEVESOLTA (ARG) Jul02         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 2.00 ★    
 
ELP-5   08/21/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LAYLA'S SONG Jul12 Jun25 Jun12 May14 Apr29 (leonard)DE CRUZ 118 15.00    
SCR  KENKEAD Aug13 Jul15 May31 May06 Mar17 (schlenk k)HUGHES CARLY 117 50.00    
3  DILMUNIA Jul30 Jun25 Jun02     (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 12.00    
4  BELLA MORNING Jul29 Apr15 Apr02     (pittman bonni)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
5  MADRE DI GRANDEZZA Jul30 Jul12 Jun22 May10 Apr02 (ortiz alexan)DIAZ RENE 113 6.00 20% 4.00    
SCR  BRIE'S LIL' BIT Jul30         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 ★    
7  MAYA'S WISH Jul03         (barkley jas)HERRFORTH ERICA 108 15.00    
8  MAYSVILLE MISS Jul30 Jul09 Jun17     (hamilton s)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00 ★    
9  NO COMMENT Jul30 Jul03 Jun11 Apr30   (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  MS MERRABEL Aug17 Aug05 Jul19 Jul04 May21 (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 118 3.50 13% 6.80    
SCR  DOGWOODS BECCA Aug11 Jul21 Jul12 Jun24 May27 (scott anthony )MILLER CHASE 118 6.00    
 
ELP-6   08/21/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARTINI SHOT         (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
2  SPANISH DOUBLOON Jul16         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 42% 1.40    
3  EL CERRITO Jun30 Jun02       (asmussen steven)LANERIE J 119 4.00 ★    
4  COUNTERSPY Jul22         (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 28% 2.60    
5  ROCKING ROCKET         (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
6  AIRBIZ         (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
7  SPIELMAN Jul22         (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 ★    
8  MAGNIFICENT MILE         (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
9  JUL QUIST         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
10  AIRTIME         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-7   08/21/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($63K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREYES CREEK Jun11 Apr20       (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 ★    
2  DYN O MITE Jun22 Mar12 Jan30 Jan22   (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 3.50 43% 1.30    
3  BULLSEYE BUN Jul30 Jun23       (green troy)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
4  YOU'RE TO BLAME Jul07 Jun23 Apr29 Mar18 Jan09 (dyer john)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  MY SIXTH SENSE Jun23 May13 Apr02 Mar13 Feb19 (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00    
6  SUPREMACY Jul17 Jun10 Apr16 Apr02 Feb20 (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.50 16% 5.10    
SCR  BETWITHBOTHHANDS Jul11 Jun25 May28     (hernandez )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00    
8  RISK MANAGER Aug06 Jul15 May21 Apr23 Mar12 (gut)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 124 6.00 9% 9.70    
SCR  NEXT Jul16 May20 Apr16 Mar10   (cowans wil)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
10  WHISKEY DOUBLE Jul16 Jun23 May21 Mar05 Feb19 (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 122 10.00    
 
ELP-8   08/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IT'S A BANG BANG         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00    
2  MOUNT KISCO Aug07 Jul03       (howell jess)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
3  BOOYAH Jul22 Jun30       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.50 ★    
4  WILLTORUN         (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00    
SCR  MASTER GAME Jun05 May07       (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 3.00 7% 14.10    
SCR  GOODASIWONSWAS         (warpool shane)HOLMES GAGE 112 15.00    
7  GREYS THE BOY Apr22 Mar26       (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 23% 3.30    
8  STROKE OF MIDNIGHT         (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
9  MY ROAD         (rider dav)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
SCR  BRESLAU         (brisset ro)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 46% 1.20    
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Aug08 Jun19 May22 Apr29 Mar26 (barnett bobby )SANJUR SANTO 119 3.50 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.