Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 22, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/22/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP M/F PT-11:30
See original race card.
:223 :461 :584     1:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  QUEEN EKATI 4 6 55 54½   21½ 11½ (martin dawn)HOLMES GAGE 117 3.00 ★ 0.65  
3  FOX CREEK LADY 3 3 2nk 1nk   11½ 21½ (campbell h)EMIGH A 124 20.00 42.77  
1  MY ZIP ZIP 1 4 43½ 44   43 33½ (foster eric)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 ★ 4.38 S
7  NOGRATZ 6 5 31½ 31½   31½ 46½ (baker j)DE CRUZ 118 1.60 30% 2.40 2.13  
2  CREATIVE WHIT 2 2 1nk 2nk   55 515¼ (cook david )PETERSON FERRIN 124 8.00 ★ 14.86  
6  VIMONT 5 1 67 69½   69 621¼ (larue steve)BAILEY CHEL-C 113 30.00 60.81  
SCR  MIZZ ROANY               (pittman bon)HERRFORTH ERICA 108 30.00    
SCR  MOUDARI               (hancock j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.00 46% 1.20    
 
ELP-2   07/22/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT-11:58
See original race card.
:224 :461 :581     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  MRS. NUSHI 4 2 1½ 11½   12 13½ (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 44% 1.20 2.01 W
6  MI CRESCENDO 6 1 2½ 21½   32 23½ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 24% 3.20 1.87 P
1  LUNA CLASICA 1 5 31½ 32½   22 33¾ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 6% 15.00 10.31 S
3  LEAVE IT BE 3 6 52½ 43½   43½ 46¾ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 2.00 ★ 2.82  
5  ARNEIS 5 4 42½ 66   59½ 520¼ (hancock john )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 33.79  
2  PACIFIC GROVE (GB) 2 3 63 56   69¾ 624½ (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00 ★ 5.48  
 
ELP-3   07/22/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT-12:26
See original race card.
:224 :451 :57     1:084   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  BIG SPORT 4 1 1nk 11½   11 14¼ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 1.60 49% 1.00 1.43 W
2  ESPIONAGE 2 2 2nk 32   21 24¼ (anderson susan )LANERIE J 122 4.00 ★ 3.53 P
5  TRAPPE VALLEY 5 4 31½ 21½   32½ 36¼ (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 12% 7.00 5.78 S
6  SPEND BENJAMINS 6 6 62¾ 43   44 46½ (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 4.92  
3  HONORARY DEGREE 3 5 52¾ 65   55 511 (miller f)COURT K 122 8.00 9% 10.40 3.65  
1  SUGGESTED 1 3 42½ 55   65½ 613¼ (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00 ★ 19.15  
 
ELP-4   07/22/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT-12:54
See original race card.
:233 :461 1:10 1:223   1:36   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  BUSINESS MODEL 4 4 43½ 53 42½ 31½ 1½ (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 6.00 ★ 1.68  
3  OLLIEMEISTER 3 3 21½ 2½ 11 11½ 2½ (stall albe)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 6.00 8.78  
6  RIGHT TONE 6 6 65½ 42 32½ 21½ 32½ (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 1.40 30% 2.40 3.38 S
1  MEISTER 1 2 54 64 64½ 42½ 44 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 2.50 33% 2.00 1.73  
2  AMANI'S EAGLE 2 1 33 31 54 64¼ 58 (rodriguez )CORRALES GERARDO 123 5.00 11% 8.50 11.74  
5  LANSDOWNE (GB) 5 5 11½ 1½ 21 54 613¼ (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R null   14.35  
 
ELP-5   07/22/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 1:22
See original race card.
:221 :451 :572     1:034   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  JUSTA WARRIOR 4 1 2½ 2½   11½ 15 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.50 7% 14.10 2.81 W
7  MALLY'S MONSOON 6 5 52½ 52½   43½ 25 (kenneally )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 18.91  
10  FRIGID LADY 9 6 74¼ 64   53¾ 36 (asmussen )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50 28% 2.50 6.06 S
1  BONANZA GRADE 1 2 1½ 1½   21½ 46¾ (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 14.79  
3  FASHION IDOL 3 3 41½ 31½   33½ 56¾ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 36% 1.70 1.52  
9  CONVERSATIONAL 8 7 64 76   75¾ 67½ (mccarthy mic)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 7.43  
5  BLING 5 4 31½ 41½   64¼ 79¾ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 14.43  
8  GUNS N' LILIES 7 8 86¾ 87   87¾ 812½ (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★ 13.28  
2  TOP MULE 2 9 96¾ 98½   910¼ 921½ (foley greg)LANERIE J 119 20.00 5% 19.00 21.14  
SCR  CATCHA LATER MO               (hancock dana)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 15.00    
 
ELP-6   07/22/2022 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($16K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
See original race card.
:243 :482 1:12 1:24   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT 2 4 53 51¾ 52½ 3½ 12½ (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 4.50 5.62  
8  MISSION BELLE 7 6 63½ 62¾ 3½ 2nk 22½ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 1.60 44% 1.30 1.22 P
4  HOT HEELS 3 1 11½ 1nk 1nk 1nk 32½ (fletcher )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 15.00 5% 19.00 11.36 S
2  LA TOURISTA 1 3 32 41½ 42 4¾ 43¼ (vasquez german )LANERIE J 123 15.00 10.06  
10  RUNAWAY MOM 9 8 85 84¼ 84¾ 75¼ 55½ (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 116 6.00 8% 11.90 4.83  
6  MOONSHINE DREAMER 5 7 74 73¾ 62¾ 52¾ 65¾ (corrigan jim)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 4.00 15% 5.80 5.24  
7  MACHINE GUN MERRY 6 9 96½ 95¼ 96¼ 85¾ 77½ (mate)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 6.00 10% 9.20 13.86  
9  JERSEY GOLD 8 5 42 31 74¼ 96¼ 812¾ (pittman bon)STILLION BROOKE 118 50.00 44.16  
5  LAKE BARKLEY 4 2 21½ 2nk 2nk 65¼ 914 (hernandez jav)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 30.00 50.83  
SCR  THROMBOCYTOPENIA               (obert danie)PETERSON FERRIN 123 20.00    
 
ELP-7   07/22/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:18
See original race card.
:222 :452 1:10     1:224   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  FROSTED DEPARTURE 4 6 2nk 11   12 13¾ (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 15.00 6.89  
10  FIGHT FIERCELY 8 2 3½ 21   22 23¾ (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 24% 3.20 1.90 P
1A  DREAM FORCE 12 1 62¼ 52½   34½ 311¼ (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 ★ 4.85 S
1  COUNTERSPY 10 11 115½ 62¾   46½ 416½ (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 4.85  
5  MACHO VILLA 3 10 94 95¼   78¾ 518¼ (lukas wayne)DIAZ RENE 114 8.00 ★ 18.77  
2  SPIELMAN 1 12 83½ 84¼   56½ 618¾ (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 19.82  
9  KNICKS STORY 7 3 5¾ 41½   66¾ 722 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 5% 18.50 5.15  
12  HAYES STRIKE 11 7 128½ 107¾   810¼ 823¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 12.86  
7  CINCH UP 5 5 1nk 73¾   1012¼ 931 (bright de)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 38.59  
11  EASY BIG BOY 9 4 4¾ 31½   912¼ 1033½ (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 51% 1.00 5.18  
8  REVERE NOTE 6 9 105½ 1210¾   1115¼ 1134 (ricker c)BECKMAN ALICE 119 50.00 90.88  
4  COACH ROGERS 2 8 73¼ 1110¾   1216¼ 1241½ (romans dale)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 24.12  
SCR  PLAIN OR PEANUT               (elliott michell)HOLMES GAGE 112 20.00    
 
ELP-8   07/22/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
See original race card.
:221 :44 :553     1:012   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  HUNTER JOHN 5 3 1½ 1nk   1nk 1¾ (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00 ★ 7.37  
10  TRUE JEDI 9 2 2½ 2nk   2nk 2¾ (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 6.00 26% 2.80 1.99 P
11  ZARTOWNIS 10 1 31½ 32   31½ 3¾ (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 12% 7.00 8.87 S
1  TRULY MISCHIEF 1 6 74¼ 76¼   54¼ 42½ (beckman d)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00 5.04  
9  DERIVATIVE 8 7 85¾ 86¾   75¾ 54 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 20% 4.10 4.38  
4  VERITABLE 4 4 63¼ 54¾   44 64¼ (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 18% 4.40 3.60  
3  BOOYAH 3 5 43 44½   64¼ 77 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00 54.04  
8  VASSAR'S BOY 7 8 53 64¾   86¼ 88¼ (lyster stephen )LANERIE J 124 8.00 20.07  
2  GO VIRTUAL 2 10 109¼ 1010   99¼ 99¼ (gonzale)DE CRUZ 119 30.00 83.64  
7  THE CLOWN 6 9 96¾ 99¾   1012¾ 1016¼ (mate)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 50.00 85.74  
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN               (barnett bobby )SANJUR SANTO 119 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.