Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 22, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/22/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP M/F PT-11:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY ZIP ZIP Feb19 Feb11       (foster eric)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 ★    
2  CREATIVE WHIT Jun28 Jun09       (cook david )PETERSON FERRIN 124 8.00 ★    
3  FOX CREEK LADY         (campbell h)EMIGH A 124 20.00    
4  QUEEN EKATI Jul09 Jun18 May27     (martin dawn)HOLMES GAGE 117 3.00 ★    
SCR  MIZZ ROANY         (pittman bon)HERRFORTH ERICA 108 30.00    
6  VIMONT Jul06 Jun27 Jun12 Jun01 May10 (larue steve)BAILEY CHEL-C 113 30.00    
7  NOGRATZ Jul03 May30       (baker jame)HERNANDEZ J 118 1.60 30% 2.40    
SCR  MOUDARI Jul09 Jun24 May15     (hancock j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.00 46% 1.20    
 
ELP-2   07/22/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT-11:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUNA CLASICA Jul13         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 6% 15.00    
2  PACIFIC GROVE (GB) Feb27         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00 ★    
3  LEAVE IT BE Jun26 May21 Apr27     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 2.00 ★    
4  MRS. NUSHI Jun29 Jun09 May25 May05 Apr22 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 44% 1.20    
5  ARNEIS Jun17         (hancock john )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
6  MI CRESCENDO Jun23 May30 May12 Apr20   (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 24% 3.20    
 
ELP-3   07/22/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT-12:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUGGESTED Jun04 Apr24 Mar10 Feb17   (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00 ★    
2  ESPIONAGE Jun10 May20 May08 Apr24 Mar26 (anderson susan )LANERIE J 122 4.00 ★    
3  HONORARY DEGREE Jun26 May27 Apr23 Apr03 Mar19 (miller f)COURT K 122 8.00 9% 10.40    
4  BIG SPORT Jun24 Jun03 Apr24 Mar25 Feb26 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 1.60 49% 1.00    
5  TRAPPE VALLEY Jul01 Jun10 Apr24 Apr03 Mar17 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 12% 7.00    
6  SPEND BENJAMINS Jul04 Jun19 May22 Apr30 Mar31 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 122 6.00    
 
ELP-4   07/22/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT-12:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MEISTER May30 Apr16 Feb12     (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.50 33% 2.00    
2  AMANI'S EAGLE Jun24 Jun10 Mar31 Jan07   (rodriguez )CORRALES GERARDO 123 5.00 11% 8.50    
3  OLLIEMEISTER Jun25 Apr23       (stall albe)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 6.00    
4  BUSINESS MODEL         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 6.00 ★    
5  LANSDOWNE (GB) Jun30 May30 May08 Apr10   (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R null      
6  RIGHT TONE Jun25 May30       (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 1.40 30% 2.40    
 
ELP-5   07/22/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 1:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BONANZA GRADE         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
2  TOP MULE         (foley greg)LANERIE J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  FASHION IDOL         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 36% 1.70    
4  JUSTA WARRIOR         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.50 7% 14.10    
5  BLING         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
SCR  CATCHA LATER MO Apr21         (hancock dana)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 15.00    
7  MALLY'S MONSOON         (kenneally )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
8  GUNS N' LILIES         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
9  CONVERSATIONAL         (mccarthy mic)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00    
10  FRIGID LADY Jul01         (asmussen )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50 28% 2.50    
 
ELP-6   07/22/2022 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($16K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THROMBOCYTOPENIA May19 Apr26 Apr06 Mar05 Feb16 (obert danie)PETERSON FERRIN 123 20.00    
2  LA TOURISTA Jun22 Jun05 May22 May12 Apr30 (vasquez german )LANERIE J 123 15.00    
3  SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT Jun11 Apr03 Feb18 Feb04   (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 4.50    
4  HOT HEELS Mar03 Feb11 Jan29     (fletcher kev)MAYTA J 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  LAKE BARKLEY Jul12 Feb11       (hernandez jav)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 30.00    
6  MOONSHINE DREAMER Jul07 Jun01 May19 Apr28 Apr16 (corrigan jim)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 4.00 15% 5.80    
7  MACHINE GUN MERRY Jun21 May23       (mate)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 6.00 10% 9.20    
8  MISSION BELLE Jun23 May13 Mar16 Jan29   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 1.60 44% 1.30    
9  JERSEY GOLD Jun30 Jun01 May12 Apr26 Mar19 (pittman bon)STILLION BROOKE 118 50.00    
10  RUNAWAY MOM Jul08 May25 May13 Apr23 Mar03 (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 116 6.00 8% 11.90    
 
ELP-7   07/22/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUNTERSPY         (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
1A  DREAM FORCE         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 ★    
2  SPIELMAN         (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
SCR  PLAIN OR PEANUT May30         (elliott michell)HOLMES GAGE 112 20.00    
4  COACH ROGERS Jun10         (romans dale)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
5  MACHO VILLA Jul02 Jun10       (lukas wayne)DIAZ RENE 114 8.00 ★    
6  FROSTED DEPARTURE Jul02         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 15.00    
7  CINCH UP Jun26         (bright de)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
8  REVERE NOTE May30 Apr28 Apr20     (ricker marc )MAYTA J 119 50.00    
9  KNICKS STORY         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 5% 18.50    
10  FIGHT FIERCELY Jun23         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 24% 3.20    
11  EASY BIG BOY Jul02 Jun10 May20     (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 51% 1.00    
12  HAYES STRIKE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
 
ELP-8   07/22/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRULY MISCHIEF Jun30 Apr16       (beckman d)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00    
2  GO VIRTUAL Jun19 Jun05 May19 Apr20   (gonzale)DE CRUZ 119 30.00    
3  BOOYAH Jun30         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
4  VERITABLE Jun25         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 18% 4.40    
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Jun19 May22 Apr29 Mar26   (barnett bobby )SANJUR SANTO 119 8.00    
6  HUNTER JOHN May07 Apr24 Apr03 Mar13 Mar06 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00 ★    
7  THE CLOWN Jun05         (mate)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 50.00    
8  VASSAR'S BOY Jun30         (lyster stephen )LANERIE J 124 8.00    
9  DERIVATIVE         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 20% 4.10    
10  TRUE JEDI May22 Apr16 Mar18     (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 6.00 26% 2.80    
11  ZARTOWNIS Mar26         (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 12% 7.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.