Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
See original race card.
:222 :45 :57     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  NORTH SIDE 2 1 14 17   19 111 (vanden britt)FELIX E 122 4.50 34% 2.00 1.30 W
4  AWESOME FAMILY 3 2 24 27   29 211 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 2.50 21% 3.80 1.56 P
6  FEELING DANGEROUS 5 4 46½ 49½   412 313¼ (rodriguez eduardo)DIAZ RENE 117 8.00 11.40  
5  TILLIS 4 3 34 37   310½ 414¼ (morse l)COURT K 122 6.00 ★ 2.88  
1  BUBBA CABALLO 1 5 510½ 514½   516 515¾ (schlenk jad)STILLION BROOKE 122 20.00 6% 15.40 18.88  
SCR  DREWZANO               (wiggins lo)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.00 ★    
 
ELP-2   07/17/2022 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($16K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
See original race card.
:241 :473 1:122 1:384   1:52   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  WHAT A COUNTRY 5 4 42½ 41¾ 41 13 13½ (cook b)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 ★ 1.15  
2  PROTONIC POWER 2 2 68 66¼ 62¼ 23 23½ (gutierrez fau)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 ★ 2.12 P
7  EL FRANCO 6 6 53 52¼ 3½ 34½ 313¾ (norris mike)MORALES EDGAR 125 12.00 14.76  
4  TWO COOKIE RULE 3 1 2½ 2nk 2nk 47½ 417¾ (poulos dee)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 4.50 ★ 6.04  
5  ZOFFA 4 3 3½ 3.2 51¼ 610½ 522¼ (shorter aaron)DIAZ RENE 118 6.00 ★ 5.83  
1  ELI 1 5 1½ 1nk 1nk 58 639¼ (maci)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 15.00 12.17  
SCR  BULLSEYE BUN               (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 123 1.20 71% 0.40    
 
ELP-3   07/17/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($62K) 3 ALL PT- 2:46
See original race card.
:222 :444 1:091     1:22   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  FRIAR LAURENCE 5 1 32 32   1nk 12½ (colebrook )MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 6.00 30% 2.30 11.20 W
2  CHASING TIME 2 5 1nk 1½   2nk 22½ (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 118 0.80 43% 1.30 0.51 P
6  BLUE KENTUCKY 6 2 64¾ 55   34½ 33½ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 ★ 3.73 S
1  RED LABEL 1 6 43½ 44   46½ 49¾ (demeritte )VILLASANA CARLOS 118 12.00 ★ 13.29  
4  TOUGH TO TAME 4 3 53¾ 67   611½ 513 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 118 4.00 ★ 5.38  
3  LUCKY SHOT 3 4 2nk 2½   58 614¾ (poulos dee)BAILEY CHEL-C 113 15.00 30.18  
 
ELP-4   07/17/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 3:14
See original race card.
:223 :463 :582     1:043   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  ZAPPLE 8 4 3½ 1½   15 19¼ (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 3.46  
3  EGOZ UNIT 2 7 69½ 69   58½ 29¼ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 8% 11.30 4.73 P
7  AREUOKWITHTHIS 5 5 43 32   25 39½ (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 24% 3.20 4.24 S
9  STORM RATE 7 1 1nk 2½   46½ 49¾ (hamilton sarah)MOJICA JR 119 5.00 3.72  
5  HOLY FOLEY 3 3 53½ 54   36½ 510¼ (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00 5.03  
8  FAST GAL 6 6 710½ 710½   713¾ 619 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 25% 3.00 5.49  
2  BASILICA D ORO 1 8 811½ 811½   814¼ 719¾ (orantes yoni )MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 5% 19.00 24.57  
6  MIDNIGHT XO 4 2 2nk 43½   613½ 824¾ (hancock dana)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 15.00 18.00  
SCR  BLING               (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
SCR  JUSTA WARRIOR               (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
SCR  ONE STORMY LADY               (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
SCR  PIGEON CAY               (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 10.00    
SCR  TOP MULE               (foley greg)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WEEHAWKEN               (casse mark)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00    
 
ELP-5   07/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
See original race card.
:234 :462 1:103 1:231   1:363   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  ON A SPREE 7 1 1½ 1nk 11½ 14 1¾ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 1.00 59% 0.70 0.71 W
6  EGO 6 7 67½ 58½ 34½ 24 2¾ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 4.50 7% 14.00 3.06 P
2  THRU THE VINE 2 2 2½ 2nk 21½ 36 36¾ (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 123 12.00 5% 18.50 19.10 S
4  ALTERED 4 6 57 69 612 514 413¾ (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 123 15.00 15.88  
5  FIRERY TALE 5 5 3½ 31 45½ 412 513¾ (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 123 3.50 ★ 5.14  
1  JURISDICTION 1 4 78 711 722 727 635¼ (miller f)COURT K 123 8.00 8% 12.20 13.95  
3  UNIDENTIFIED MAN 3 3 44½ 45½ 59½ 622 750¾ (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 12.00 20.86  
 
ELP-6   07/17/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:10
See original race card.
:223 :454 :574     1:04   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  HONOR THAT 4 1 11 11   12½ 12¾ (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 122 15.00 1.17  
1  MY MY MUNNY 1 5 43½ 43½   22½ 22¾ (stuart shea)BAILEY CHEL-C 117 20.00 3.15  
7  THE CLUB 3 4 31½ 31½   44 35¼ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 3.00  
4  LAURA'S CHARM 2 2 21 21   33½ 46¼ (pierce lac)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 5.57  
11  MONOCACY 5 3 55 55   510 514¾ (king l)MILLER CHASE 118 20.00 8.15  
SCR  SHANNON               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.50 15% 5.60    
SCR  ROSY DAWN               (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 ★    
SCR  HEY KITTEN               (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 5.00 52% 0.90    
SCR  ELEGANT JOY               (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 12% 7.30    
SCR  STYLISH RAGS               (west m)PARKER L 122 20.00    
SCR  DEVINE CHARGER               (blair jordan)GRAHAM J 118 1.20 ★    
 
ELP-7   07/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:111 1:241   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  DOROTHEA 1 1 1½ 11 11 13 11¼ (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 17% 4.90 2.98 W
8  SWEET LADY IVANKA 5 7 65 54 53 23 21¼ (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 10.00 5.00  
11  GUN MOLL 7 6 55 65 65 67 38¼ (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00 11.15  
9  FINE COTTON 6 2 44 43 21 34 48¼ (pessin neil )GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 4.47  
6  TEXAS LUCKY 3 4 33½ 32 41½ 44 59½ (mcpeek g)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 16.25  
3  RUN UP THE SCORE 2 3 2½ 21 31 54½ 610¼ (brown c)GRAHAM J 118 3.00 20% 4.00 2.33  
13  LANDED GENTRY 9 9 913¾ 810 76½ 710 714¼ (medina rob)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 15.00 5% 19.00 30.68  
7  JUST GET IT 4 8 813½ 910 89 815 823½ (margolis ste)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00 38.40  
12  MARINA'S GOLD 8 5 76½ 76½ 913 922 937½ (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 7.69  
SCR  AWESOME ALLY VEE               (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
SCR  MY LILY MAE               (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 111 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SHEZAPISTOL               (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 30.00    
SCR  SUNNY RIVER               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 35% 1.80    
 
ELP-8   07/17/2022 5610ft TURF RC2 YIELDING nongraded Stake Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
See original race card.
:244 :484 1:131 1:372   1:432   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  MARKET RUMOR 3 4 64¾ 64½ 62¼ 2nk 1½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 1.80 16% 5.40 1.26 W
1  UNDISTURBED 1 2 11½ 1½ 1½ 1nk 2½ (wilkes r)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 48% 1.10 3.22 P
8  DEMODOG 7 7 53¼ 52 51¾ 43 34 (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 8.00 4.31  
2  FAIR GAME 2 3 31½ 41½ 41½ 53½ 46½ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 15.00 8.24  
7  CAROLINE'S STORY 6 5 43 31½ 31½ 64½ 58¾ (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 122 20.00 5% 19.00 32.30  
6  JOY OF PAINTING 5 1 21½ 2½ 2½ 32½ 69½ (arnold r)GRAHAM J 122 6.00 ★ 11.03  
5  RUSSIAN MAFIA 4 6 76¾ 76½ 74¼ 76 79½ (rodriguez eduardo)FELIX E 124 5.00 7.05  
SCR  WILL'S SECRET               (lukas wayne)COURT K 122 6.00 10% 9.30    
 
ELP-9   07/17/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:40
See original race card.
:243 :472 1:114 1:364   2:033   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMON BOND 1 78 512 56½ 35½ 31½ 11 (reed r)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 5% 19.00 8.05 W
11  FAMILY MAN 6 43 38 34½ 23 21½ 21 (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 15.00 6% 15.40 1.27 P
12  SAQEEL 7 67½ 715½ 79¼ 49 45 32½ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 12.00 7.28  
7  DEFIED 5 12½ 17 14½ 13 11½ 44½ (ortiz alex)HOLMES GAGE 118 20.00 6.84  
2  ROGUE ELEMENT 2 55½ 612½ 69 511 510 513¼ (hiles a)LANERIE J 123 4.50 2.80  
6  CHANTRY FLATS 4 22½ 27 24½ 612½ 613 618¼ (newton tro)CORRALES GERARDO 123 15.00 9.60  
4  WORLD CRUISER 3 32½ 49 45½ 715 718 723 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 15.00 16.64  
SCR  ARABIAN PRINCE               (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 5.00 28% 2.60    
SCR  COOL RAGS               (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  COURAGEOUSLY               (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 6.00    
SCR  FINDING FREEDOM               (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00    
SCR  RED HORNET               (meah m)MORALES EDGAR 123 2.00 33% 2.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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