Handicappers' Race Results

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Ellis Park
Sunday - July 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   07/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
See original race card.
:222 :45 :57     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NORTH SIDE 2 1 14 17   19 111 (vanden brittan)FELIX E 122 4.50 34% 2.00 1.30 W
AWESOME FAMILY 3 2 24 27   29 211 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 122 2.50 21% 3.80 1.56 P
FEELING DANGEROUS 5 4 4 4   412 313¼ (rodriguez eduardo)DIAZ RENE 117 8.00 11.40  
TILLIS 4 3 34 37   310½ 414¼ (morse l)COURT K 122 6.00 2.88  
BUBBA CABALLO 1 5 510½ 514½   516 515¾ (schlenk jada )STILLION BROOKE 122 20.00 6% 15.40 18.88  
SCR  DREWZANO               (wiggins lon)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.00    
 
ELP-2   07/17/2022 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($16K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
See original race card.
:241 :473 1:122 1:384   1:52   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHAT A COUNTRY 5 4 4 4 41 13 1 (cook b)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 1.15  
PROTONIC POWER 2 2 68 6 6 23 2 (gutierrez faust)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 2.12 P
EL FRANCO 6 6 53 5 3½ 3 313¾ (norris mike)MORALES EDGAR 125 12.00 14.76  
TWO COOKIE RULE 3 1 2½ 2nk 2nk 4 417¾ (poulos dee)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 4.50 6.04  
ZOFFA 4 3 3½ 3.2 5 610½ 522¼ (shorter aaron)DIAZ RENE 118 6.00 5.83  
ELI 1 5 1½ 1nk 1nk 58 639¼ (macias)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 15.00 12.17  
SCR  BULLSEYE BUN               (mckeever andrew)CANNON DECLAN 123 1.20 71% 0.40    
 
ELP-3   07/17/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($62K) 3 ALL PT- 2:46
See original race card.
:222 :444 1:091     1:22   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FRIAR LAURENCE 5 1 32 32   1nk 1 (colebrook be)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 6.00 30% 2.30 11.20 W
CHASING TIME 2 5 1nk 1½   2nk 2 (asmussen m)BEJARANO R 118 0.80 43% 1.30 0.51 P
BLUE KENTUCKY 6 2 6 55   3 3 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 3.73 S
RED LABEL 1 6 4 44   4 4 (demeritte la)VILLASANA CARLOS 118 12.00 13.29  
TOUGH TO TAME 4 3 5 67   611½ 513 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 118 4.00 5.38  
LUCKY SHOT 3 4 2nk 2½   58 614¾ (poulos dee)BAILEY CHEL-C 113 15.00 30.18  
 
ELP-4   07/17/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 3:14
See original race card.
:223 :463 :582     1:043   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  ZAPPLE 8 4 3½ 1½   15 1 (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 3.46  
EGOZ UNIT 2 7 6 69   5 2 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 8% 11.30 4.73 P
AREUOKWITHTHIS 5 5 43 32   25 3 (maker j)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 24% 3.20 4.24 S
STORM RATE 7 1 1nk 2½   4 4 (hamilton sarah)MOJICA JR 119 5.00 3.72  
HOLY FOLEY 3 3 5 54   3 510¼ (asmussen st)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00 5.03  
FAST GAL 6 6 710½ 710½   713¾ 619 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 25% 3.00 5.49  
BASILICA D ORO 1 8 811½ 811½   814¼ 719¾ (orantes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 5% 19.00 24.57  
MIDNIGHT XO 4 2 2nk 4   613½ 824¾ (hancock dana)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 15.00 18.00  
SCR  BLING               (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
SCR  JUSTA WARRIOR               (ortiz al)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
SCR  ONE STORMY LADY               (hancock john)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
SCR  PIGEON CAY               (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 10.00    
SCR  TOP MULE               (foley greg)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WEEHAWKEN               (casse mark)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00    
 
ELP-5   07/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
See original race card.
:234 :462 1:103 1:231   1:363   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ON A SPREE 7 1 1½ 1nk 1 14 1¾ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 123 1.00 59% 0.70 0.71 W
EGO 6 7 6 5 3 24 2¾ (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 4.50 7% 14.00 3.06 P
THRU THE VINE 2 2 2½ 2nk 2 36 3 (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 123 12.00 5% 18.50 19.10 S
ALTERED 4 6 57 69 612 514 413¾ (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 123 15.00 15.88  
FIRERY TALE 5 5 3½ 31 4 412 513¾ (diodoro robertino)COHEN DAVID 123 3.50 5.14  
JURISDICTION 1 4 78 711 722 727 635¼ (miller f)COURT K 123 8.00 8% 12.20 13.95  
UNIDENTIFIED MAN 3 3 4 4 5 622 750¾ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 12.00 20.86  
 
ELP-6   07/17/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:10
See original race card.
:223 :454 :574     1:04   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HONOR THAT 4 1 11 11   1 1 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 122 15.00 1.17  
MY MY MUNNY 1 5 4 4   2 2 (stuart shea)BAILEY CHEL-C 117 20.00 3.15  
THE CLUB 3 4 3 3   44 3 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 3.00  
LAURA'S CHARM 2 2 21 21   3 4 (pierce lacy)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 5.57  
11  MONOCACY 5 3 55 55   510 514¾ (king l)MILLER CHASE 118 20.00 8.15  
SCR  SHANNON               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.50 15% 5.60    
SCR  ROSY DAWN               (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
SCR  HEY KITTEN               (brisset rodolp)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 5.00 52% 0.90    
SCR  ELEGANT JOY               (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 12% 7.30    
SCR  STYLISH RAGS               (west m)PARKER L 122 20.00    
SCR  DEVINE CHARGER               (blair jordan)GRAHAM J 118 1.20    
 
ELP-7   07/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:111 1:241   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DOROTHEA 1 1 1½ 11 11 13 1 (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 17% 4.90 2.98 W
SWEET LADY IVANKA 5 7 65 54 53 23 2 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 118 10.00 5.00  
11  GUN MOLL 7 6 55 65 65 67 3 (hamilton sara)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00 11.15  
FINE COTTON 6 2 44 43 21 34 4 (pessin l)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 4.47  
TEXAS LUCKY 3 4 3 32 4 44 5 (mcpeek g)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 16.25  
RUN UP THE SCORE 2 3 2½ 21 31 5 610¼ (brown c)GRAHAM J 118 3.00 20% 4.00 2.33  
13  LANDED GENTRY 9 9 913¾ 810 7 710 714¼ (medina rober)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 15.00 5% 19.00 30.68  
JUST GET IT 4 8 813½ 910 89 815 823½ (margolis steph)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00 38.40  
12  MARINA'S GOLD 8 5 7 7 913 922 937½ (ortiz al)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 7.69  
SCR  AWESOME ALLY VEE               (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
SCR  MY LILY MAE               (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 111 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SHEZAPISTOL               (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 30.00    
SCR  SUNNY RIVER               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 35% 1.80    
 
ELP-8   07/17/2022 5610ft TURF RC2 YIELDING nongraded Stake Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
See original race card.
:244 :484 1:131 1:372   1:432   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MARKET RUMOR 3 4 6 6 6 2nk 1½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 1.80 16% 5.40 1.26 W
UNDISTURBED 1 2 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 2½ (wilkes r)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 48% 1.10 3.22 P
DEMODOG 7 7 5 52 5 43 34 (walsh brend)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 8.00 4.31  
FAIR GAME 2 3 3 4 4 5 4 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 15.00 8.24  
CAROLINE'S STORY 6 5 43 3 3 6 5 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 122 20.00 5% 19.00 32.30  
JOY OF PAINTING 5 1 2 2½ 2½ 3 6 (arnold r)GRAHAM J 122 6.00 11.03  
RUSSIAN MAFIA 4 6 7 7 7 76 7 (rodriguez eduardo)FELIX E 124 5.00 7.05  
SCR  WILL'S SECRET               (lukas wayne)COURT K 122 6.00 10% 9.30    
 
ELP-9   07/17/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:40
See original race card.
:243 :472 1:114 1:364   2:033   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COMMON BOND 1 78 512 5 3 3 11 (reed r)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 5% 19.00 8.05 W
11  FAMILY MAN 6 43 38 3 23 2 21 (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 15.00 6% 15.40 1.27 P
12  SAQEEL 7 6 715½ 7 49 45 3 (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 12.00 7.28  
DEFIED 5 1 17 1 13 1 4 (ortiz alexan)HOLMES GAGE 118 20.00 6.84  
ROGUE ELEMENT 2 5 612½ 69 511 510 513¼ (hiles a)LANERIE J 123 4.50 2.80  
CHANTRY FLATS 4 2 27 2 612½ 613 618¼ (newton troy)CORRALES GERARDO 123 15.00 9.60  
WORLD CRUISER 3 3 49 4 715 718 723 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 123 15.00 16.64  
SCR  ARABIAN PRINCE               (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 5.00 28% 2.60    
SCR  COOL RAGS               (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  COURAGEOUSLY               (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 6.00    
SCR  FINDING FREEDOM               (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00    
SCR  RED HORNET               (meah m)MORALES EDGAR 123 2.00 33% 2.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.