Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUBBA CABALLO Jun24 Jun04 May03 Apr23   (schlenk jad)STILLION BROOKE 122 20.00 6% 15.40    
2  NORTH SIDE Jun24 May24 May07 Apr19   (vanden britt)FELIX E 122 4.50 34% 2.00    
SCR  DREWZANO Jun08 Apr30 Mar27 Mar05 Jan21 (wiggins lo)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.00 ★    
4  AWESOME FAMILY Jun18 Jun10 May27 Apr23 Mar10 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 2.50 21% 3.80    
5  TILLIS Jun10 Apr07 Feb19 Jan16   (morse l)COURT K 122 6.00 ★    
6  FEELING DANGEROUS Jun04 May20 Apr02 Feb10   (rodriguez eduardo)DIAZ RENE 117 8.00    
 
ELP-2   07/17/2022 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($16K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELI Jun24 Jun02 May12 Apr09 Feb11 (maci)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 15.00    
2  PROTONIC POWER Jun24 May12 Mar31 Mar04 Feb19 (gutierrez fau)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 ★    
SCR  BULLSEYE BUN Jun23         (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 123 1.20 71% 0.40    
4  TWO COOKIE RULE Jun25 Jun04 May20 May01 Apr23 (poulos dee)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 4.50 ★    
5  ZOFFA Jun17 May28 Mar18 Feb20 Feb04 (shorter aaron)DIAZ RENE 118 6.00 ★    
6  WHAT A COUNTRY Jun30 Jun10 May06 Mar24 Feb19 (cook b)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 ★    
7  EL FRANCO Jun22 May30 May12 Apr21 Mar04 (norris mike)MORALES EDGAR 125 12.00    
 
ELP-3   07/17/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($62K) 3 ALL PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED LABEL Jun22 May29 Apr23 Feb11 Jan08 (demeritte )VILLASANA CARLOS 118 12.00 ★    
2  CHASING TIME Jun11 May21 Apr02 Feb26 Jan14 (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 118 0.80 43% 1.30    
3  LUCKY SHOT May01 Apr09 Jan08     (poulos dee)BAILEY CHEL-C 113 15.00    
4  TOUGH TO TAME Jun12 May13 Mar13     (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 118 4.00 ★    
5  FRIAR LAURENCE Jan22         (colebrook )MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 6.00 30% 2.30    
6  BLUE KENTUCKY Jun19 May29 Apr14 Mar09 Jan22 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 ★    
 
ELP-4   07/17/2022 3630ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ONE STORMY LADY Apr29 Apr10       (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
2  BASILICA D ORO         (orantes yoni )MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  EGOZ UNIT         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 8% 11.30    
SCR  PIGEON CAY         (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 10.00    
5  HOLY FOLEY Jun29         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00    
6  MIDNIGHT XO Jun28         (hancock dana)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 15.00    
7  AREUOKWITHTHIS         (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 24% 3.20    
8  FAST GAL         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
9  STORM RATE         (hamilton sarah)MOJICA JR 119 5.00    
10  ZAPPLE         (leitch daniel)PARKER L 119 10.00    
SCR  WEEHAWKEN         (casse mark)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00    
SCR  BLING         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
SCR  TOP MULE         (foley greg)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  JUSTA WARRIOR         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
 
ELP-5   07/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JURISDICTION Jun23 May27 May05 Mar17 Feb24 (miller f)COURT K 123 8.00 8% 12.20    
2  THRU THE VINE Jun11 May30 Apr30 Apr09 Mar19 (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 123 12.00 5% 18.50    
3  UNIDENTIFIED MAN Jun23 Apr30       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 12.00    
4  ALTERED Jun25 May28 May19 Mar24 Feb13 (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 123 15.00    
5  FIRERY TALE Jun26 Jun10 May27 Apr16 Apr09 (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 123 3.50 ★    
6  EGO Jun23 May24 Apr23 Mar20 Mar04 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 4.50 7% 14.00    
7  ON A SPREE May21 May01 Mar19 Feb26   (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 1.00 59% 0.70    
 
ELP-6   07/17/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY MY MUNNY Jul03 Jun17 Jun09 May23 Feb25 (stuart shea)BAILEY CHEL-C 117 20.00    
SCR  DEVINE CHARGER Jul09 May14 Apr10 Feb23 Jan15 (blair jordan)GRAHAM J 118 1.20 ★    
SCR  STYLISH RAGS Jun28 May11 Feb26     (west m)PARKER L 122 20.00    
4  LAURA'S CHARM         (pierce lac)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
SCR  HEY KITTEN Jun11         (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 5.00 52% 0.90    
SCR  SHANNON Apr22         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.50 15% 5.60    
7  THE CLUB Jun12 Apr21       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
8  HONOR THAT Jun12 May10 Mar13 Jan19   (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 122 15.00    
SCR  ELEGANT JOY         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 12% 7.30    
SCR  ROSY DAWN         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 ★    
11  MONOCACY Jun17 May27 May05 Apr02   (king l)MILLER CHASE 118 20.00    
 
ELP-7   07/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SUNNY RIVER Jun19 May19       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 35% 1.80    
2  DOROTHEA Jun26         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 17% 4.90    
3  RUN UP THE SCORE Jun11 May07 Mar27     (brown c)GRAHAM J 118 3.00 20% 4.00    
SCR  AWESOME ALLY VEE Jun24         (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
SCR  MY LILY MAE Jul02 May14 Apr22 Apr02 Mar19 (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 111 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  TEXAS LUCKY         (mcpeek g)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
7  JUST GET IT Jun26         (margolis ste)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00    
8  SWEET LADY IVANKA         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 10.00    
9  FINE COTTON Jun23 May27 Apr21 Feb18 Jan21 (pessin l)DIAZ RENE 119 12.00    
SCR  SHEZAPISTOL May19 Apr07       (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 30.00    
11  GUN MOLL         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00    
12  MARINA'S GOLD         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
13  LANDED GENTRY Jun18         (medina rob)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-8   07/17/2022 5610ft TURF RC2 YIELDING nongraded Stake Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNDISTURBED May28 Apr24 Mar20 Jan21   (wilkes r)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 48% 1.10    
2  FAIR GAME May19 Apr24 Mar18     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
SCR  WILL'S SECRET Jul03 Jun12       (lukas wayne)COURT K 122 6.00 10% 9.30    
4  MARKET RUMOR Jun05 Apr23 Mar20     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 1.80 16% 5.40    
5  RUSSIAN MAFIA Jun18 Mar26 Mar12 Feb13   (rodriguez eduardo)FELIX E 124 5.00    
6  JOY OF PAINTING Jun22 Apr23 Jan29     (arnold r)GRAHAM J 122 6.00 ★    
7  CAROLINE'S STORY Jun17 Feb26       (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  DEMODOG         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 8.00    
 
ELP-9   07/17/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMON BOND May22 Apr24 Mar17     (reed r)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  ROGUE ELEMENT Jul02 Jun09 Apr24 Feb03 Jan23 (hiles a)LANERIE J 123 4.50    
SCR  FINDING FREEDOM         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00    
4  WORLD CRUISER Jun09 May13 Mar18 Feb20 Jan14 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 15.00    
SCR  COURAGEOUSLY Jun09 May13 Apr13 Mar20 Feb19 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 6.00    
6  CHANTRY FLATS Jun18 Mar19       (newton troy)PARKER L 123 15.00    
7  DEFIED Jun22 Jun03 May05 Feb20   (ortiz alex)HOLMES GAGE 118 20.00    
SCR  COOL RAGS Apr24 Apr13 Mar17 Feb23 Jan15 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ARABIAN PRINCE Jun18 May28 May06 Apr13 Mar20 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 5.00 28% 2.60    
SCR  RED HORNET May28 May06 Apr08     (meah m)MORALES EDGAR 123 2.00 33% 2.00    
11  FAMILY MAN Jun29 May15 Apr14     (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 15.00 6% 15.40    
12  SAQEEL Jun29 May08 Mar27 Feb12 Jan14 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.