The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 26, 2022

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CD-1   11/26/2022 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
:231 :463 1:104     1:224   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DETERMINEDLY 8 7 3½ 31   11(casse mark)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 13% 6.70 1.11 W
SHOPPER'S REVENGE 5 11 8 7   32(asmussen m)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 12.66 P
SUN THUNDER 6 10 11 11   43(mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 19.33  
DESERT WOLF 4 1 7 5   2410½ (pletcher a)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 35% 1.80 8.28  
PRAIRIE DUNES 7 2 9 84   6511¼ (mott i)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 29% 2.50 5.64  
11  SMILE MON 11 12 1211¼ 1212½   1011¼ 614¼ (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 20.00 47.61  
MY SANCTUARY 2 5 10 10   910¾ 715½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00 44.38  
SENSE YOU ASKED 3 6 6 42   5817 (stall m)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 5.24  
TOP D'ORO 1 4 2nk 1½   7918½ (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 32.32  
13  FAME 12 3 1nk 2½   81023 (asmussen m)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 23.94  
10  NOISES OFF 10 9 5 9   1214¾ 1124¼ (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 23.76  
DREAMWITHINADREAM 9 8 41 63   1114¼ 1224½ (hiles a)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 20.56  
SCR  CROSSING               (lauer michael)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 20.00    
 
CD-2   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:30
:241 :492 1:142 1:391   1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TOWHEAD 5 3 1½ 11 11 11(maker j)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 34% 1.90 3.08 W
MIJA 4 5 41 4 4 33 2(pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 9.73 P
10  HARMONICA 10 1 3½ 21 21 23(drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 19.12  
COMPARATIVE 7 4 5 53 5 56 4(cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 42% 1.40 2.88  
NO GUILT 6 12 12 11 10 656 (lukas wayne)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 12.00 11.52  
ROSES AND ROZAY 3 2 62 6 64 45 6(mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 14.31  
WITS AND WAGERS 1 11 11 12 9 78 78 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 7.47  
TWO MINUTE LICK 2 9 10 8 7 989 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 23.18  
TIVALI 8 6 2½ 32 3 8919 (casse w)SANTANA JR 119 20.00 90.63  
STAY LOST 9 7 7 9 8 1013½ 1021½ (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 5.00 18.58  
11  SWEET SWEETFANTASY 11 8 9 10 1211¾ 1118½ 1127¾ (courville ricky)LANERIE J 119 20.00 57.91  
12  THEROANRUNNER 12 10 8 74 1111¼ 1224½ 1238 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 4.44  
 
CD-3   11/26/2022 3960ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 1:59
:212 :451 :57     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VICTORY FORMATION 2 3 2nk 2½   2½ 1¼ (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 122 1.80 30% 2.30 1.37 W
TWO EAGLES RIVER 4 5 34 3   1½ 2¼ (hartman chris)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.00 29% 2.50 2.39 P
LUGAN KNIGHT 6 1 45 4   43 3(mccarthy w)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00 8% 11.70 4.18 S
JOKING WAY 5 2 1nk 1½   3½ 44 (asmussen m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 3.75  
WELAKA 1 8 710 79   610 5(danner kelsey)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 33.72  
LORD GRANTHAM 3 7 817 812½   810¾ 6(hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 15.00 35.37  
COFFEE CALIENTE 7 6 5 6   710¼ 712¾ (rosin w)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00 6% 15.00 49.63  
GOLD LUCK 8 4 67 56   59 813½ (garcia genaro)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00 54.03  
 
CD-4   11/26/2022 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:28
:23 :47 1:11     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  VAHVA 11 11 42 2½   113 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 22% 3.50 1.50 W
12  POBLANO 12 10 53 31   223 (walsh p)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 19% 4.40 4.96 P
LADY IRENE 4 1 6 8   437 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 10.00 13.86  
10  BRU NA BOINNE 10 5 1 1½   34(calhoun bret)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 4.88  
DEAR LADY 1 9 9 10   59 59 (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 10.93  
TOUGH LEGACY 2 8 7 74   610 611¼ (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 53.92  
SOUPER EXPLOSIVE 8 7 8 63   910¼ 711½ (casse mark)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00 11.83  
OKAY FINE 9 3 32 5   710 811½ (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 13.09  
MEDAGLIA FOREVER 6 12 12 11   1113¼ 914 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 25.42  
MARKET PROFILE 5 2 2 42   810¼ 1014½ (asmussen m)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 13.28  
LUNA MOTH 3 6 10 9   1012¼ 1115¼ (simms jr)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 93.49  
PATTY VAN TWINKLE 7 4 11 12   1217¼ 1218¾ (tomlinson a)ROCCO S 119 12.00 11% 8.10 24.59  
SCR  IGUAZU FALLS               (huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
SCR  KISS IT GOODBYE               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
SCR  KLASSY BRIDGETTE               (hartman chris)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  LADAN               (bogle fergus)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
 
CD-5   11/26/2022 5940ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:58
:234 :474 1:13 1:382   1:504   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
POINT PROVEN 7 5 2 3 31 11 15 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 2.25  
10  ENDPOINT 10 3 1 2nk 1½ 21 25 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 17% 4.80 6.59 P
ESCAPOLOGIST 2 8 8 9 97 537 (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 10% 9.40 4.50 S
SPIELMAN 9 1 5 5 5 34(desormeaux keith)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.50 18% 4.60 2.11  
REGIMENTAL 6 7 1110 1115¾ 1112 65(arnold r)ROCCO S 119 15.00 13.83  
HARD TO COME BY 4 2 6 4 4 46 69 (von donnie)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 22.73  
COAL BOSS 1 4 7 7 6 912 716¾ (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 74.45  
12  MACHO VILLA 12 11 109 8 84 710 817¾ (lukas wayne)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 20.00 86.25  
11  SPOILER 11 6 43 6 74 811 917¾ (asmussen m)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 14.10  
LEVEL UP 8 9 9 1010¾ 10 1118½ 1035¾ (nihei michelle)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 58.26  
FACE VALUE 3 12 32 1nk 2½ 1017½ 1138¾ (walsh p)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 10.00 43.49  
CREPE YARNS 5 10 1211½ 1217¼ 1216 1226½ 1251½ (wilkes r)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00 31.93  
SCR  FIRST CLASS HARLOW               (courville ricky)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
SCR  GORDY'S LABEL               (stall m)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PARKWAY               (mott i)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
SCR  ROCKET AND ROLL               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 26% 2.90    
 
CD-6   11/26/2022 5280ft TURF FIRM Allowance   Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 3:27
:242 :493 1:15 1:271   1:392   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WORTHINGTON 5 4 3 33 3 2nk 1(maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 16% 5.20 3.55 W
MENDEL'S SECRET 3 2 1 1 1½ 1nk 2(maker j)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 6.71 P
10  DEER DISTRICT 10 5 54 65 53 33 3(romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 2.50 44% 1.30 1.99 S
DONEGAL FACTOR 9 8 7 5 4 5410¾ (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 19.62  
SUITABLE 6 10 1013 1011 9 6512¼ (asmussen m)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00 49.16  
GOOD HEART 1 6 2 2 2½ 4612¼ (walsh p)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 2.19  
B MINOR 7 1 8 97 7 7713¾ (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 16.34  
COUNTERSPY 8 3 6 7 10 1012¼ 815 (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 40.62  
CURLINS INCHARGE 2 9 99 8 8 811¾ 915¼ (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 12.00 17.94  
SCOOTERANDDABIGMAN 4 7 44 44 64 911¾ 1024¾ (langemeier l)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 74.73  
SCR  ARISTOCRACY               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  NITROMAN               (reed r)MCKEE J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   11/26/2022 4290ft DIRT FAST nongraded Stake   Purse ($200K) 2 F PT- 3:57
:222 :453 1:10     1:164   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RED CARPET READY 6 1 21 21   1½ 1(arnold r)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 7.42  
TWIRLED 4 5 11 11   2½ 2(asmussen m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 29% 2.50 4.22 P
KEY OF LIFE 3 4 3 4   33 3(cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 1.00 35% 1.90 0.45 S
BAYTOWN LOVELY 1 2 6 65   56 4(mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 122 20.00 52.96  
THE GREAT MAYBE 2 6 5 3   46 513 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 9% 10.40 4.65  
TELL ME WHEN 5 3 43 54   612½ 628 (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00 46.97  
 
CD-8   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:27
:233 :471 1:12 1:37   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CONFIDENCE GAME 5 1 12 1 1½ 1½ 1½ (desormeaux keith)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00 11.30 W
ROCKET CAN 6 4 33 33 2½ 2½ 2½ (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 15% 5.50 3.14 P
10  TEN DAYS LATER 8 8 811¼ 8 3 33¾ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 122 8.00 12% 7.00 7.94 S
HIT SHOW 4 6 7 7 8 44(cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 30% 2.40 1.38  
11  TRAFFIC MASTER 9 9 916¼ 912½ 78 612 511½ (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 12.00 26.44  
HIGHWAY ROBBER 1 5 4 44 56 512 614 (lynch a)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 10.00 6.69  
TRES SOLES 2 3 22 2 4 818 722¼ (asmussen m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 10.28  
MO'S TREASURE 7 7 6 5 6 715½ 823 (lukas wayne)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00 61.46  
MUST BE THE MONEY 3 2 5 66 9100 9100 9100 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 15% 5.60 10.46  
SCR  RAISE CAIN               (colebrook ben)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
SCR  TAKE THE CHARGE               (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 118 30.00    
 
CD-9   11/26/2022 4290ft DIRT FAST nongraded Stake   Purse ($200K) 2 ALL PT- 4:57
:222 :453 1:103     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
POWERFUL 5 2 2nk 1½   1½ 11 (asmussen m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 2.58  
MR BOB 3 4 4 6   3½ 21 (falcone n)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 4.02 P
FROSTED DEPARTURE 4 3 5 5   2½ 3(mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 10% 9.40 4.05 S
ACCIDENT 1 6 7 7   52 4(short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 122 30.00 43.43  
TOP RECRUIT 6 1 1nk 2½   45(maker j)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 32% 2.20 3.78  
BOURBON BASH 2 7 6 4¾   66(lukas wayne)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 5.00 6.02  
MOUNSIEUR COCO 7 5 3½ 3½   7715½ (gutierrez faustio)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 34% 2.00 5.13  
 
CD-10   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Grade II Stake/Handicap   Purse ($400K) 2 F PT- 5:27
:241 :474 1:121 1:372   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOOSIER PHILLY 3 3 43 3 3.2 115 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 1.00 41% 1.40 0.48 W
KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF 4 5 7 86 6 66 25 (block chris)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00 24.16 P
PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS 1 6 3 43 4 35 3(walsh p)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 26% 2.80 5.15 S
PURE PAULINE 6 4 21 22 1nk 24(pletcher a)SANTANA JR 122 15.00 15.96  
10  DEFINING PURPOSE 8 8 65 54 5 55(mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 22.93  
T MAX 5 1 11 12 2nk 4611½ (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 122 12.00 8% 11.10 13.03  
AMERICAN ROCKETTE 2 2 54 65 7 717½ 727¼ (mott i)GEROUX FLORENT 122 10.00 7.40  
TAKE CHARGE BRIANA 7 7 8 76 819¾ 8100 8100 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 122 15.00 20.08  
SCR  BLACK FOREST               (gutierrez faustio)CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00    
SCR  MUSTANG LADY               (newton troy)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
 
CD-11   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Grade II Stake/Handicap   Purse ($400K) 2 ALL PT- 5:56
:244 :50 1:15 1:39   1:451   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INSTANT COFFEE 8 7 74 6 5 31 1(cox h)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 39% 1.60 1.54 W
CURLY JACK 1 2 3 3 4 52 2(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 20% 4.10 2.62 P
HAYES STRIKE 7 8 85 8 7 83(mcpeek g)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 22.88  
RED ROUTE ONE 5 4 5 52 6 42 4(asmussen m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 7% 12.60 9.04  
DENINGTON 3 1 6 7 8 75(mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 14.97  
GIGANTE 4 3 1½ 1½ 3½ 2½ 6(asmussen m)LANERIE J 122 12.00 24.59  
CYCLONE MISCHIEF 9 6 2½ 2½ 1½ 1½ 7(romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00 6.16  
FREEDOM TRAIL 6 5 42 4 2½ 68(terranova p)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 13% 6.80 5.90  
WESTERN GHENT 2 9 95 9 9 919¼ 929¾ (lukas wayne)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 20.00 64.77  
 
CD-12   11/26/2022 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:24
:224 :463 1:112     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  GUN PILOT 11 8 2½ 1nk   13 13 (asmussen m)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 11.75  
11  MOBSTER 10 7 42 3½   23 23 (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 33% 2.00 3.58 P
TALLADEGA 3 6 10 9   63(brisset rodolphe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 13% 6.60 2.92 S
GLOBAL PRIDE 1 2 5 6   34(delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 22.18  
13  HALLOW POINT 12 10 8 8   57 5(asmussen m)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 21.42  
MIDNIGHT PRANKS 5 4 3 4   469 (calhoun bret)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5% 19.00 11.95  
WINGER 8 12 11 11   1011¾ 713½ (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00 16.38  
KING D'ORO 2 3 6 5   8814¼ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 4.86  
ITZOS 6 5 1½ 2nk   7914½ (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 28% 2.50 5.49  
BACKSIDE BUZZ 4 1 74 7   910¼ 1017¼ (vance d)LANERIE J 119 8.00 19.88  
10  ALL ABOUT CROGE 9 11 95 10   1117¼ 1129½ (hernandez javier)SERRANO KEIVAN 119 30.00 85.90  
PINFIRE 7 9 12 12   1219¼ 1230¼ (tomlinson a)ROCCO S 119 12.00 17.28  
SCR  MR MIDWAY               (courville ricky)GILLIGAN JACK 119 30.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.