Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 26, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/26/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOP D'ORO Oct30         (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
2  MY SANCTUARY Oct15         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
3  SENSE YOU ASKED         (stall albert )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
4  DESERT WOLF Oct30 Oct01 Sep03     (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 35% 1.80    
5  SHOPPER'S REVENGE         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 ★    
6  SUN THUNDER         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
7  PRAIRIE DUNES Nov13 Oct01 Sep03     (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 29% 2.50    
8  DETERMINEDLY Nov05 Sep25 Aug31 Jul30 Jun30 (casse mark)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 13% 6.70    
9  DREAMWITHINADREAM Oct30         (hiles jeff)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 ★    
10  NOISES OFF         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
11  SMILE MON         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
SCR  CROSSING         (lau)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 20.00    
13  FAME         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
 
CD-2   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WITS AND WAGERS Oct20 Sep18 Aug07     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
2  TWO MINUTE LICK Oct16         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
3  ROSES AND ROZAY Oct30 Oct12       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
4  MIJA Oct12 Aug17       (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 ★    
5  TOWHEAD Oct30 Oct07 Sep03 Aug14 Jul24 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 34% 1.90    
6  NO GUILT Nov04         (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 12.00    
7  COMPARATIVE Oct20 Sep17       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 42% 1.40    
8  TIVALI Oct12         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 20.00    
9  STAY LOST Oct16 Sep08 Aug07     (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 5.00 ★    
10  HARMONICA Oct12         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
11  SWEET SWEETFANTASY Oct20 Sep17       (courville ricky)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
12  THEROANRUNNER Oct16         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 ★    
 
CD-3   11/26/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 1:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WELAKA Nov04 Oct07 Sep16 Aug10   (danner kelsey)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
2  VICTORY FORMATION Oct21         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 122 1.80 30% 2.30    
3  LORD GRANTHAM Nov02 Sep24 Aug27 Jul16   (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 15.00    
4  TWO EAGLES RIVER Oct30         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.00 29% 2.50    
5  JOKING WAY Oct30 Sep22       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 ★    
6  LUGAN KNIGHT Oct21 Sep21       (mccarthy mic)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00 8% 11.70    
7  COFFEE CALIENTE Oct22 Sep17 Aug21 Jul16   (rosin w)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00 6% 15.00    
8  GOLD LUCK Oct08 Sep18 Aug22     (garcia genaro)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
 
CD-4   11/26/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEAR LADY         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
2  TOUGH LEGACY Oct30         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
3  LUNA MOTH         (simms jr)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
4  LADY IRENE         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
5  MARKET PROFILE Oct30 Sep23       (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 ★    
6  MEDAGLIA FOREVER         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
7  PATTY VAN TWINKLE Oct30         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 12.00 11% 8.10    
8  SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Oct30 Sep18       (casse mar)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
9  OKAY FINE Oct30         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
10  BRU NA BOINNE Oct30         (calhoun wi)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00    
11  VAHVA Sep04 Jul24       (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 22% 3.50    
12  POBLANO Oct22         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 19% 4.40    
SCR  LADAN Nov17 Nov10 Oct20 Sep24 Jul31 (bogle fergus)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
SCR  IGUAZU FALLS Nov02         (huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
SCR  KLASSY BRIDGETTE Nov04 Sep18       (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  KISS IT GOODBYE         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
 
CD-5   11/26/2022 5940ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COAL BOSS Oct30 Sep24       (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
2  ESCAPOLOGIST Oct20 Oct01       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 10% 9.40    
3  FACE VALUE Oct20 Sep16 Aug06     (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 10.00    
4  HARD TO COME BY Sep15 Aug12 Jun30     (von hemel )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
5  CREPE YARNS Oct30 Sep29       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
6  REGIMENTAL Sep10         (arnold george )ROCCO S 119 15.00    
7  POINT PROVEN Sep18 Aug06       (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00    
8  LEVEL UP Oct13 Sep10 Aug06     (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
9  SPIELMAN Oct30 Oct01 Aug21 Jul22   (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.50 18% 4.60    
10  ENDPOINT Oct20 Sep22 Aug28     (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 17% 4.80    
11  SPOILER Oct09         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
12  MACHO VILLA Oct30 Oct09 Sep21 Aug28 Jul22 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 20.00    
SCR  GORDY'S LABEL Oct30         (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PARKWAY Oct30 Sep03       (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
SCR  FIRST CLASS HARLOW Nov17 Oct23       (courville ricky)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
SCR  ROCKET AND ROLL Nov05         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 26% 2.90    
 
CD-6   11/26/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOOD HEART Oct08 Sep10       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50    
2  CURLINS INCHARGE Oct01 Sep08       (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
3  MENDEL'S SECRET Oct29 Sep01       (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 ★    
4  SCOOTERANDDABIGMAN Oct31 Oct10       (langemeier jo)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
5  WORTHINGTON Oct15 Sep03       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 16% 5.20    
6  SUITABLE Nov19 Oct14 Aug27     (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00    
7  B MINOR Oct09 Sep16 Sep03     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
8  COUNTERSPY Sep16 Aug21 Jul22     (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
9  DONEGAL FACTOR Oct05 Sep01       (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
10  DEER DISTRICT Oct09 Sep14 Aug12 Jun30   (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 2.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  NITROMAN Oct12 Sep07       (reed r)MCKEE J 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ARISTOCRACY Oct23         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 16% 5.40    
 
CD-7   11/26/2022 4290ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 2 F PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYTOWN LOVELY Nov04 Oct07 May05 Apr10   (mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 122 20.00 ★    
2  THE GREAT MAYBE Oct02 Aug28       (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 9% 10.40    
3  KEY OF LIFE (IRE) Oct28 Oct07 Aug13 Jun25   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 1.00 35% 1.90    
4  TWIRLED Oct22 Sep14       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 29% 2.50    
5  TELL ME WHEN Sep30 Sep01 Jul21 Jun23   (hamm timot)CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00    
6  RED CARPET READY Oct30         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 ★    
 
CD-8   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 4:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RAISE CAIN Oct29 Oct09 Sep17     (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
2  HIGHWAY ROBBER Sep23         (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 10.00    
3  TRES SOLES Nov04 Sep29       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
4  MUST BE THE MONEY Sep21         (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 15% 5.60    
5  HIT SHOW Oct09         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 30% 2.40    
6  CONFIDENCE GAME Oct12 Sep17 Aug13 Jul02   (desormeaux)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  ROCKET CAN Oct30 Sep03 Aug06     (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 15% 5.50    
8  MO'S TREASURE Oct12 Sep22 Sep03 Aug07 Jul23 (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
SCR  TAKE THE CHARGE Nov20 Oct20 Sep07 Aug24   (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 30.00    
10  TEN DAYS LATER Oct20 Oct01 Sep14 Aug28   (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 122 8.00 12% 7.00    
11  TRAFFIC MASTER Oct12 Sep15 Aug12     (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 12.00    
 
CD-9   11/26/2022 4290ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 2 ALL PT- 4:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ACCIDENT Nov16 Oct30 Oct09 Sep29 Sep08 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 122 30.00    
2  BOURBON BASH Oct29 Oct08 Sep05 Aug13 Jul24 (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 5.00    
3  MR BOB Oct28 Aug25       (falcone n)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 ★    
4  FROSTED DEPARTURE Oct30 Oct08 Sep16 Aug14 Jul22 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 10% 9.40    
5  POWERFUL Oct08 Sep03 Jul23     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 ★    
6  TOP RECRUIT Oct30 Oct01 Aug14 Jul09 Jun09 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 32% 2.20    
7  MOUNSIEUR COCO Oct09 Aug28 Aug20 Jul16   (gutierrez fa)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 34% 2.00    
 
CD-10   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade II Stake/Handicap Purse ($400K) 2 F PT- 5:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS Oct30 Sep18       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 26% 2.80    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PRETTY CITY DANCER by TAPIT)
SCR  MUSTANG LADY Oct07 Sep03 Jul31     (newton troy)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
  (by TONALIST out of HUNDRED YEAR STORM by WAR FRONT)
3  AMERICAN ROCKETTE Oct02 Sep04 Jul21     (mott william)GEROUX FLORENT 122 10.00 ★    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of ROCKET TWENTYONE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
4  HOOSIER PHILLY Oct30 Sep25       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 1.00 41% 1.40    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TAPELLA by TAPIT)
SCR  BLACK FOREST Nov04 Sep30 Aug13 Jun19 Jun03 (gutierrez )CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of BLACK OAK by FORESTRY)
6  KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF Oct07 Sep03 Aug03     (block chr)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00 ★    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of FATEER by ESKENDEREYA)
7  T MAX Oct30 Sep15 Aug21     (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 122 12.00 8% 11.10    
  (by CONNECT out of PLEASANT DRIVE by SALEM DRIVE)
8  PURE PAULINE Oct20 Sep04       (pletcher)SANTANA JR 122 15.00    
  (by CURLIN out of KEEN PAULINE by PULPIT)
9  TAKE CHARGE BRIANA Oct28 Oct07 Sep04 Aug14 Jul24 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 122 15.00    
  (by CURLIN out of TAKE CHARGE TRESSA by WAR FRONT)
10  DEFINING PURPOSE Nov17 Oct20       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of DEFINING HOPE by STRONG HOPE)
 
CD-11   11/26/2022 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade II Stake/Handicap Purse ($400K) 2 ALL PT- 5:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CURLY JACK Nov04 Sep17 Aug14 Jul16 Jun02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 20% 4.10    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of CONNIE AND MICHAEL by ROMAN RULER)
2  WESTERN GHENT Oct30 Oct08 Sep05 Aug25 Aug06 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 20.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of LUZMIMI PRINCESS by MALIBU MOON)
3  DENINGTON Oct30 Oct01 Aug28 Aug05   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of STRONGER THAN EVER by CONGRATS)
4  GIGANTE Oct09 Sep06 Aug10 Jul18   (asmussen steven)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SUMMERTIME GREEN by EMPIRE MAKER)
5  RED ROUTE ONE Oct30 Oct08 Sep05 Aug06   (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 7% 12.60    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of RED HOUSE by RED RYDER)
6  FREEDOM TRAIL Oct29 Sep25       (terranova jo)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 13% 6.80    
  (by COLLECTED out of FREEDOM by WAR FRONT)
7  HAYES STRIKE Oct30 Oct12 Sep17 Aug20 Jul22 (mcpeek g)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
  (by CONNECT out of PLAID by DEPUTY COMMANDER)
8  INSTANT COFFEE Oct08 Sep03       (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 39% 1.60    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of FOLLOW NO ONE by UNCLE MO)
9  CYCLONE MISCHIEF Oct19 Sep16       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of AREYOUCOMINGHERE by BERNARDINI)
 
CD-12   11/26/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GLOBAL PRIDE Oct30         (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
2  KING D'ORO Oct19 Sep21       (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 ★    
3  TALLADEGA Oct30         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 13% 6.60    
4  BACKSIDE BUZZ Oct30 Oct09 Jul17 Jun25 May20 (vance d)LANERIE J 119 8.00    
5  MIDNIGHT PRANKS Oct30         (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  ITZOS         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 28% 2.50    
7  PINFIRE         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 12.00    
SCR  MR MIDWAY Oct19 Sep15       (courville ric)GILLIGAN JACK 119 30.00    
9  WINGER         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
10  ALL ABOUT CROGE Nov11         (hernandez ja)SERRANO KEIVAN 119 30.00    
11  MOBSTER Oct07         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 33% 2.00    
12  GUN PILOT         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
13  HALLOW POINT Sep15 Aug05 Jul02     (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.