The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 
Churchill Downs
Saturday - September 17, 2022
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CD-1   09/17/2022 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
:23 :461 1:114     1:251   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  EDGE OF GLORY 2 1 41½ 52¾   21½ 1½ (ennis john)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.00 22% 3.50 2.20 W
6  PUDGE BOY PALACE 6 5 52 42½   32 2½ (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 15.00 18.98  
8  STAR ENTERTAINER 8 10 96¾ 96¾   54½ 31 (ortiz alexander)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 8.00 6.56  
4  CONSPIRACY FACT 4 2 1nk 11   11½ 43½ (stall m)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00 4.34  
3  SOUTHERN SENSE 3 7 73¼ 74¼   65½ 54¾ (mcgee paul)GARCIA MARTIN 121 5.00 6.83  
1  ANGEL OF THE NORTH 1 9 85¾ 86¾   76½ 65 (mckeever andrew)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00 16.99  
7  ALPHA WHISKEY 7 6 31 21   42½ 76 (morse l)COURT K 121 4.50 10% 8.60 13.80  
9  PISTOL OR SHOTGUN 9 8 107¾ 108¾   97½ 86¼ (diodoro robertino)SANTANA JR 121 4.50 6% 15.00 7.07  
10  LOCO 10 4 63 63¾   87 910½ (cano munoz)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00 5% 18.30 10.74  
5  BIG WOO 5 3 2nk 31   1019½ 1041½ (catalano m)COHEN DAVID 121 6.00 21% 3.70 13.07  
 
CD-2   09/17/2022 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:14
:224 :461 1:112 1:241   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  PEACOCK LASS 7 3 1½ 11 11½ 13½ 14 (brisset rodolphe)ROSARIO JOEL 119 12.00 6.23  
5  TINY TEMPER 5 11 106½ 105¾ 75 34 24 (stewart dallas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 25% 3.00 2.19 P
1  COMPARATIVE 2 1 42 42 32½ 23½ 36 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 48% 1.10 3.22 S
3  BOLT FOR ALLISON 3 2 52¼ 31½ 43 45 49½ (hartman chris)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 25.82  
9  KEY TO SUCCESS 9 9 116½ 116¼ 95¾ 78½ 510 (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 28.78  
6  ADIVA 6 7 2½ 21 21½ 56½ 612¼ (puhich mike)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 ★ 10.90  
10  SWEET SWEETFANTASY 10 12 84¾ 84¼ 106¾ 810½ 713¼ (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00 26.47  
11  ALWAYS LAUGHING 11 6 62¼ 63½ 53 68 814 (walsh p)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 4.94  
8  MALAWNIA 8 4 3½ 52 64 912½ 922¼ (tomlinson a)ROCCO S 119 12.00 ★ 22.67  
12  EVERYLITTLETHING 12 10 72¾ 74 85½ 1014 1023 (stall m)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 29.50  
2  DAGMAR 1 8 95 94¾ 117¼ 1114 1124¾ (catalano m)DIAZ RENE 114 15.00 53.91  
4  RIGHT NOW 4 5 127½ 127¾ 1212¾ 1221 1239¾ (mcpeek g)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 5% 19.00 12.97  
SCR  MIDVALE               (walsh p)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 2.50    
 
CD-3   09/17/2022 5280ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
:223 :451 1:093 1:221   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  WINTERWOOD 6 4 2nk 21 1½ 13 11¾ (brennan terry)SANTANA JR 118 12.00 30.48  
6  STELLAR TAP 5 6 53½ 53 42½ 23 21¾ (hawley wesley)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00 15% 5.70 6.86 P
5  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE 4 3 42½ 42 53 55½ 32¼ (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50 2.35  
4  COUSIN LARRY 3 7 98½ 88½ 76 66 45½ (lovell michelle)GILLIGAN JACK 122 10.00 9.94  
10  QUICK TO BLAME 9 9 64½ 66½ 65½ 44½ 55½ (barkley jason)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 11% 8.00 5.71  
9  ENDLESS SUNSET 8 8 77 78½ 89 88 65¾ (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 117 5.00 ★ 14.22  
8  MIACOMET 7 5 31 31½ 2½ 34 78½ (moquett e)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 ★ 3.58  
1  NEPOTISM 1 2 1nk 11 31½ 76 814½ (scherer marianne)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 49% 1.00 3.58  
2  EL AHIJADO 2 1 87½ 911 916 914 922½ (guerrero sal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 30.00 76.08  
SCR  MEGA CHARLIE               (morse l)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 20.00    
SCR  WRITEITONTHEICE               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
 
CD-4   09/17/2022 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
:224 :453 1:102 1:231   1:361   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  JAG WARRIOR 5 4 2nk 2½ 1nk 11 1nk (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 15.00 29.09  
13  SUNNY RIVER 12 5 41¼ 42 31 21 2nk (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.80 36% 1.80 0.89 P
1  SWEET LADY IVANKA 1 2 105¾ 94¾ 99½ 79 38 (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 6% 17.10 6.88 S
9  LUV DRAGON 9 10 83¼ 52 54 45 48½ (stall m)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50 20% 3.90 4.63  
4  PLEASE BE KIND 4 1 1nk 1½ 2nk 33½ 59¼ (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 18.83  
2  LADY COMMANDER 2 3 3.2 31 43½ 55½ 610¼ (fires h)COURT K 124 15.00 44.42  
7  TYRONA 7 7 72¾ 62½ 66 67½ 710½ (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 120 20.00 34.50  
12  GUN MOLL 11 11 61¾ 84½ 89 911½ 816½ (hamilton sarah)PETERSON FERRIN 120 20.00 ★ 34.38  
3  AMERICAN BAND 3 6 95¼ 115¾ 1011 1012½ 916½ (ortiz alexander)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00 38.51  
10  SINFILTRE 10 9 51¾ 73½ 77½ 811 1017 (pletcher a)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 16% 5.20 7.36  
6  BEYOND PERFECTION 6 8 116¼ 105¾ 1113 1116½ 1127 (walsh p)ROSARIO JOEL 120 12.00 14.82  
8  ISABEL DE CLARE 8 12 128¼ 126¼ 1223½ 1239½ 1259 (wojczynski justin)LEBRON VICTOR 120 30.00 ######  
SCR  MO HAPPY               (thompson boyd)STERRITT KENDAL 120 15.00    
SCR  ROLLESTON               (colebrook ben)CORRALES GERARDO 120 20.00    
 
CD-5   09/17/2022 4290ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
:23 :454 1:093     1:154   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  LOGGINS 4 2 31½ 2nk   14 18½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 22% 3.50 0.92 W
10  EASY ACTION 9 1 2nk 1nk   24 28½ (casse w)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 6.50  
2  COMMUNICATION MEMO 1 5 51¾ 43¼   46 39¾ (asmussen m)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00 23.93  
4  RELEASE MCCRAKEN 3 3 1nk 3.2   34½ 411 (calhoun bret)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.50 51% 1.00 7.59  
6  KUPP 5 6 84 66¼   512 516¾ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 ★ 10.19  
9  DARYL'S BOLT 8 11 1112 1113¾   816 617½ (hartman chris)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 45.75  
3  ARMY STAR 2 9 95½ 1013¼   715½ 718 (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 30.05  
7  RAISE CAIN 6 10 106 77¼   613½ 818 (colebrook ben)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 23.05  
8  TEXAS PRIDE 7 4 41¾ 55¾   1020 925 (lukas wayne)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 21.26  
11  SPEED INSTITUTE 10 7 62 88¾   919½ 1025½ (o'neill doug)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00 30.86  
12  CREATE TROUBLE 11 8 72 910¾   1128 1138¼ (walsh p)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 5% 19.00 6.01  
SCR  EGYPTIAN KING               (glyshaw tim)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
SCR  KING D'ORO               (pletcher a)ROSARIO JOEL 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KING ME               (catalano m)PETERSON FERRIN 119 12.00    
SCR  LUGAN KNIGHT               (mccarthy w)ROSARIO JOEL 119 8.00    
SCR  SEAS OF NORMANDY               (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
 
CD-6   09/17/2022 5280ft DIRT FAST Allowance   Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
:23 :46 1:10 1:222   1:35   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  UBER KIRK 3 6 74 52¼ 41½ 11 12¾ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 122 15.00 5% 19.00 9.60 W
12  GULFSTREAM WAY 11 3 2½ 2nk 2nk 31 22¾ (hartman chris)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 39% 1.50 3.28 P
1  FILM STAR 1 2 1½ 1nk 1nk 21 33¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.00 24% 3.10 10.78  
9  PRO OXIDANT 8 9 95¾ 94¾ 75¾ 76 45¾ (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 ★ 2.33  
3  UNBRIDLED HONOR 2 11 1210¾ 129¾ 1110¼ 97½ 57 (pletcher a)ROSARIO JOEL 122 4.50 8.00  
10  DRIVE FOR FUN 9 4 42½ 42 62¼ 64½ 68¼ (arnold r)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 19.97  
6  BRIGADIER GENERAL 5 7 84¼ 73¼ 51¾ 43 78½ (stewart dallas)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00 7.67  
8  POLICY OPTION 7 12 118¾ 117¼ 97¼ 87 89 (cano munoz)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 20.00 21.18  
13  AMERICAN ICON 12 5 31½ 31½ 3½ 54 99¼ (brisset rodolphe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 6% 15.90 7.68  
5  IGNITIS 4 1 53 62¾ 86¾ 108 1010½ (lukas wayne)DIAZ RENE 113 30.00 56.44  
7  SUNDAY BREEZE 6 10 106¾ 84¾ 1210¾ 1110 1112 (devaux cherie)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00 43.54  
11  OLLIEMEISTER 10 8 64 105¼ 107¼ 1211½ 1217 (stall m)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00 37.37  
SCR  AIR COMBAT               (ortiz alexander)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00 ★    
SCR  GO EMI               (gonzalez lilia)BERMUDEZ E 118 30.00    
SCR  TIZ RYE TIME               (van thomas)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00    
 
CD-7   09/17/2022 3960ft DIRT FAST nongraded Stake   Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
:221 :451 :57     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  BELL'S THE ONE 3 2 35 33½   32 11 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 1.20 ★ 0.54  
2  JOYFUL CADENCE 2 1 12 1nk   1½ 21 (ortiz alexander)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 3.50 ★ 2.72 P
1  SCONSIN 1 3 22 2nk   2½ 31¾ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 37% 1.70 2.37 S
SCR  CHEETARA (CHI)               (correas iv)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 15.00 8% 11.50    
SCR  CLUB CAR               (colebrook ben)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00 27% 2.70    
 
CD-8   09/17/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap   Purse ($400K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
:241 :481 1:122 1:37   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  PLAYED HARD 5 1 2½ 21½ 1½ 13 15¾ (bauer a)ROSARIO JOEL 121 2.00 45% 1.20 2.12 W
3  CRAZY BEAUTIFUL 3 4 1½ 11½ 31½ 33½ 25¾ (mcpeek g)LEPAROUX R 121 1.80 ★ 2.44 P
4  LI'L TOOTSIE 4 3 31½ 32 2½ 23 37¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 21% 3.80 6.89 S
1  GOLD SPIRIT (CHI) 1 2 52 42½ 43½ 46 411¾ (pletcher a)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00 6.64  
2  ENVOUTANTE 2 5 42 53½ 53½ 57 515¾ (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 ★ 1.90  
SCR  PRINCESS OF CAIRO               (puhich mike)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 20.00 8% 11.30    
 
CD-9   09/17/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap   Purse ($300K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
:233 :472 1:113 1:383   1:453   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  CURLY JACK 5 2 62¼ 62½ 64¾ 11 11 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 ★ 10.83  
7  HONED 7 9 97¾ 97¾ 78¾ 32 21 (mcpeek g)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00 54.18  
6  JACE'S ROAD 6 3 21 31½ 33½ 21 31½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 26% 2.90 4.85 S
1  HAYES STRIKE 1 6 31½ 42 54¼ 64 45½ (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 57.58  
8  CONFIDENCE GAME 8 8 72¾ 52 43¾ 75½ 510 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 12.00 ★ 29.85  
3  DAMON'S MOUND 3 5 11 1½ 2nk 42½ 610 (lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 2.50 33% 2.00 2.74  
9  ECHO AGAIN 9 1 52 2½ 1nk 54 714 (asmussen m)ROSARIO JOEL 122 2.00 19% 4.20 0.66  
4  JIN TONG 4 4 84¼ 84¾ 89¼ 811½ 819 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 122 15.00 77.20  
2  ZAICI 2 7 41½ 72¾ 910¾ 914 925¾ (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 122 30.00 ######  
 
CD-10   09/17/2022 3960ft DIRT FAST nongraded Stake   Purse ($275K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
:212 :441 :561     1:09   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  MILES AHEAD 5 7 42½ 33   22 1hd (mcgee paul)GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00 ★ 2.73  
6  ISOLATE 6 2 11 1nk   12 2hd (amoss m)ROSARIO JOEL 123 1.40 17% 5.00 1.61 P
4  NECKER ISLAND 4 4 65 53¾   43½ 3nk (hartman chris)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 44% 1.30 2.53 S
1  MANNY WAH 1 6 77 76¾   55 41¾ (catalano m)LANERIE J 121 10.00 ★ 26.65  
7  TOP GUNNER 7 1 21 2nk   32½ 54¼ (ortiz alexander)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 5.00 14% 6.10 8.87  
8  BAYTOWN BEAR 8 5 52½ 43¼   67 68¾ (mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 121 30.00 51.35  
3  ROBO MAN 3 3 32 64¼   77 79 (pierce lacy)GEROUX FLORENT 121 15.00 26.88  
2  A C EXPRESSWAY 2 8 87½ 811¼   812½ 814¾ (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 8.00 10.46  
 
CD-11   09/17/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap   Purse ($300K) 2 F PT- 5:58
:234 :48 1:124 1:39   1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  FUN AND FEISTY 10 11 119 119½ 68 1nk 13½ (mcpeek g)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00 6.23  
4  SHOPLIFTER 4 2 43½ 43½ 34 41 23½ (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 122 15.00 15% 5.80 14.73 P
5  GRAND LOVE 5 3 11 11½ 1½ 2nk 35¼ (asmussen m)ROSARIO JOEL 122 4.50 18% 4.70 1.06 S
1  BOSS LADY BAILEY 1 10 76 76 78½ 52½ 45¾ (ortiz alexander)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 18.40  
12  FRIENDLYPERSUASION 12 5 21 21½ 2½ 3½ 57¼ (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 122 8.00 13.86  
9  JET SETTING 9 4 107½ 109 911 710½ 612¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00 11.28  
7  SOUTHLAWN 7 7 65 65 46 67½ 713 (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 ★ 14.06  
6  OUTOFNOTHINGATALL 6 6 54½ 54½ 58 812 818½ (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 122 30.00 95.11  
8  NEED SOME MONEY 8 8 86½ 98 1114½ 915½ 921¼ (hamilton sarah)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 65.06  
2  KISS ME ON OCONEE 2 1 33 33 89½ 1016 1022¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 85.54  
11  JUSTA WARRIOR 11 9 96½ 87½ 1013½ 1120 1131¾ (ortiz alexander)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.00 40% 1.50 5.74  
3  NAUGHTY GAL 3 12 1217 1218½ 1226½ 1232 1247¼ (lukas wayne)SANTANA JR 122 5.00 ★ 12.52  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.