Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:221 :454 :58     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOT PASTRAMI 6 2 4 3   3½ 1 (mejia dela)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.50 2.90  
WEST WARPATH 3 3 2½ 1nk   1nk 2 (cano munoz)CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00 32.94  
LAKE TAHOE 2 4 1½ 2nk   2nk 3 (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 29% 2.50 3.68 S
PLEMMONSTON 4 5 3 43   4 4 (leonard geo)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 15.04  
DESOTO'S WAR 1 7 64 54   5 5 (forster t)GILLIGAN JACK 120 1.80 20% 4.00 0.95  
CHASIN CHARLIE 5 6 75 6   6 6 (richardson ti)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00 7% 13.20 33.52  
DUDLEY 7 1 54 7   7 714¼ (douaihy michel)AYALA ISAIAS 118 12.00 20% 4.10 8.02  
SCR  Z U AT THE RACES               (vaughn terry)CANUTO THIAGO 120 15.00    
 
CD-2   11/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:114 1:25   1:383   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SEIVER 6 7 8 3 21 11 1¾ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 58% 0.70 2.81 W
JACKIE'S LOVE 2 6 9 9 6 42 2¾ (olivo daisy)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 13.84 P
SWEET TRUFFLES 3 2 7 4 33 31 3 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 124 2.50 8% 12.00 2.40 S
VERDANDI 1 3 3½ 2nk 11 21 4 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.00 9% 10.60 1.50  
LA CHAPEAU 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 (williamson bri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00 12.72  
SWEET VALERIA 9 9 6 6 76 6 6 (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 12.00 13.12  
ISABEL DE CLARE 4 5 1nk 1nk 44 76 712¾ (wojczynski j)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00 50.41  
DOGWOODS BECCA 7 1 4 7 810½ 810 818¼ (scott l)CANUTO THIAGO 121 20.00 ######  
JAMS TOP SHELF 5 4 2nk 8 922½ 927 945 (jennings joseph)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 30.00 58.31  
 
CD-3   11/17/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:23 :454 1:11     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
H. T. XENA 1 3 1 1nk   2½ 1hd (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50 3.98  
ARGUMENTAL 6 5 2 2nk   1½ 2hd (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.80 28% 2.60 1.81 P
MY MY MUNNY 2 6 54 5   3 3 (garcia genar)CORRALES GERARDO 120 5.00 27% 2.70 8.28 S
LOVE OF MY LIFE 5 2 3 4   42 4 (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00 6.86  
SHANIAH 3 1 42 3   5 55 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 120 2.00 1.76  
MY DAMS ATITUDE 4 4 69 611¼   616 621¾ (hernandez r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00 15% 5.70 15.57  
 
CD-4   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:214 :454 :583     1:12   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GETTIN PAID 6 6 2 32   1½ 1 (morey willia)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 9.08  
RATE CONFIRMATION 4 1 4 1nk   2½ 2 (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00 6.75  
BOUDIN 3 2 5 44   5 33 (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 3.00 27% 2.70 3.18 S
VIOLENT RIVER 5 8 811¾ 5   4 43 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 4.30  
BRILLIANT COLORS 8 3 3 2nk   31 5 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 7.52  
FEELING 7 4 6 710   6 613¾ (delgado gusta)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 19.35  
WHOOP GONE 1 5 1 68   7 724¼ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 1.99  
GOLDEN SIMMS 2 7 710¼ 818   822 848 (medina robe)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 16.75  
SCR  RETAINED               (west w)MACHADO LUAN 119 1.60 49% 1.00    
 
CD-5   11/17/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:23 :464 1:111     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CAMP DAVID 6 1 2nk 1nk   1 1nk (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 2.46  
IBERVILLE 3 6 6 68   4 2nk (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 118 3.50 11% 8.50 1.65 P
GORMLEYS GOT GAME 4 3 3.2 42   3 3 (forster grant)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 3.76  
CAMINERO 5 2 4 3½   2 47 (gutierrez faus)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50 38% 1.60 4.33  
LIGHTNING STRUCK 1 5 5 5   58 5 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00 12.52  
ATTA BOY ANTHONY 2 4 1nk 2nk   610½ 615½ (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 118 8.00 12.25  
SCR  CLASSIC KING               (claire alexis)LANERIE J 118 4.00 15% 5.60    
SCR  DOUBLE THUNDER               (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 118 12.00 10% 9.00    
 
CD-6   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:212 :444 :57     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ASH FLAT 1 5 1nk 1   11 1nk (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 5.00 1.66  
TANGO CHARLIE 6 1 6 32   3 2nk (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.00 18% 4.50 2.60 P
GRAY ATTEMPT 7 2 5 53   5 3 (corrigan jim)LANERIE J 120 4.00 43% 1.30 5.66 S
SPANKHURST 5 3 4 2   21 4 (garcia gena)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.50 4.59  
SHADOW MATTER 3 6 3 43   4 5 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.50 5.22  
POWELL 4 4 7 6   67 610 (sherman jus)SHERMAN ALEXANDRA 110 30.00 9% 9.80 44.33  
HOOPERDRIVESTHBOAT 2 7 2nk 7   710½ 723¼ (habeeb j)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 19.70  
 
CD-7   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:212 :444 :573     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RELEASE MCCRAKEN 1 4 2½ 1½   1 1 (calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.50 18% 4.50 2.63 W
GLOBAL SURPRISE 4 3 44 34   3 2 (delgado gusta)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 2.50 33% 2.00 2.00 P
10  SIR 9 1 911½ 78   78 3 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 20.51 S
FIRST CLASS HARLOW 8 8 76 55   56 4 (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 10.00 30.39  
SEAS OF NORMANDY 3 2 1½ 2½   2 55 (jones larr)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 5% 19.00 5.69  
FIGHT FIERCELY 5 7 66 66   4 6 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 25% 3.10 4.74  
PAYNTED BLUE 2 9 8 8   8 7 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 37.92  
WESTERN COMMAND 6 6 55 9   9 811½ (foley greg)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 39.64  
TAP DANCE TANGO 7 5 33 44   66 912¼ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 5.59  
SCR  CHLOE'S DREAM               (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/17/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:24 :47 1:112 1:371   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PIONEER OF MEDINA 2 5 5 45 4 2½ 1½ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 43% 1.30 2.94 W
WARRIOR JOHNY 5 4 4 3 3.2 1½ 2½ (bauer a)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 1.40 0.47  
DROPPIN G'S 3 3 3 23 1nk 33 3 (antonuik jerry)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 7.37 S
AWESOME AARON 1 1 1 13 2nk 43 4 (green troy)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 9% 9.90 8.34  
MIDNIGHT J J 4 2 2 55 527¼ 547 5100 (brownfield claude)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 5% 19.00 17.76  
SCR  GUNTON ROE               (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
SCR  MAJOR GENERAL               (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00 10% 8.90    
 
CD-9   11/17/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:22 :45       :571   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WILLTORUN 4 9 55 33   2 1 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 28.92  
SKELLY 5 2 1 1   1 2 (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 120 1.60 44% 1.30 0.61 P
B SUDD 9 1 45 5   3 3 (stewart dal)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 31% 2.20 5.18 S
IMPROBABLE JOURNEY 2 10 8 4   4 44 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 8.72  
SEIZE THE NIGHT 1 8 6 8   66 5 (lukas wayne)COURT K 118 20.00 14.51  
SPARTY SENSE 7 6 7 7   7 6 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00 25.25  
LET MY PEOPLE GO 3 11 10 9   8 7 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 11.14  
BACK TO NORMAL 8 7 9 1010½   9 8 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 23.14  
11  YOU MAKE ME HAPPY 11 4 2 2   55 9 (veinot trudy)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 57.46  
DARK TIMBER 6 3 33 64   10 1010 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 120 10.00 24.05  
10  FIRST CROWNED 10 5 11 1122½   1132¼ 1144¾ (sanchez ji)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00 90.66  
 
CD-10   11/17/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:24 :47 1:131 1:384   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DEFINING PURPOSE 1 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 1 16 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 19% 4.10 1.33 W
BIG DIG 7 7 66 6 5 4 26 (drury thomas)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 6% 15.80 4.09 P
GONNA CUT IT 5 6 78 7 6 3 3 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 5.00 11.49  
THESTRAL 4 3 2½ 2½ 2nk 2 4 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 8% 11.00 3.71  
PERFECT ROSE 3 4 810 810¾ 8 6 510¾ (vasquez sr)COURT K 119 15.00 36.48  
LADAN 6 5 32 32 3 5 617¼ (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 37.68  
TEQUILA EMPIRE 2 2 55 55 7 7 720 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 38% 1.60 4.60  
ROCKABILLIE 8 8 4 42 43 811¼ 829½ (ortiz al)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 14.67  
SCR  STAGE BELL               (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.