The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 17, 2022
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Always check Track, Date, Race Number, Program Number and Horse Name before the race.
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CD-1   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
:221 :454 :58     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  HOT PASTRAMI 6 2 43½ 31½   3½ 11¼ (mejia delacruz)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.50 ★ 2.90  
3  WEST WARPATH 3 3 2½ 1nk   1nk 21¼ (cano munoz)CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00 32.94  
2  LAKE TAHOE 2 4 1½ 2nk   2nk 32½ (moquett e)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 29% 2.50 3.68 S
4  PLEMMONSTON 4 5 32½ 43   43½ 43¼ (leonard iii)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 15.04  
1  DESOTO'S WAR 1 7 64 54   53¾ 55¾ (forster t)GILLIGAN JACK 120 1.80 20% 4.00 0.95  
5  CHASIN CHARLIE 5 6 75 65½   65¾ 68¼ (richardson tim)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00 7% 13.20 33.52  
7  DUDLEY 7 1 54 76½   78¼ 714¼ (douaihy michel)AYALA ISAIAS 118 12.00 20% 4.10 8.02  
SCR  Z U AT THE RACES               (vaughn terry)CANUTO THIAGO 120 15.00    
 
CD-2   11/17/2022 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
:224 :46 1:114 1:25   1:383   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  SEIVER 6 7 84¼ 31½ 21 11 1¾ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 58% 0.70 2.81 W
2  JACKIE'S LOVE 2 6 97¼ 96¾ 64½ 42 2¾ (olivo k)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 ★ 13.84 P
3  SWEET TRUFFLES 3 2 73¾ 41¾ 33 31 31¾ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 124 2.50 8% 12.00 2.40 S
1  VERDANDI 1 3 3½ 2nk 11 21 46½ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.00 9% 10.60 1.50  
8  LA CHAPEAU 8 8 52½ 52¾ 54½ 53½ 58¼ (williamson brian)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00 12.72  
9  SWEET VALERIA 9 9 62¾ 64¼ 76 64½ 68¾ (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 12.00 ★ 13.12  
4  ISABEL DE CLARE 4 5 1nk 1nk 44 76 712¾ (wojczynski justin)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00 50.41  
7  DOGWOODS BECCA 7 1 41½ 74¾ 810½ 810 818¼ (scott l)CANUTO THIAGO 121 20.00 ######  
5  JAMS TOP SHELF 5 4 2nk 84¾ 922½ 927 945 (jennings joseph)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 30.00 58.31  
 
CD-3   11/17/2022 4290ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
:23 :454 1:11     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  H. T. XENA 1 3 11½ 1nk   2½ 1hd (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50 ★ 3.98  
6  ARGUMENTAL 6 5 21½ 2nk   1½ 2hd (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.80 28% 2.60 1.81 P
2  MY MY MUNNY 2 6 54 52¾   31½ 31¼ (garcia genaro)CORRALES GERARDO 120 5.00 27% 2.70 8.28 S
5  LOVE OF MY LIFE 5 2 31½ 41¾   42 41¾ (correas iv)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00 6.86  
3  SHANIAH 3 1 42 31½   53½ 55 (tomlinson a)ROCCO S 120 2.00 ★ 1.76  
4  MY DAMS ATITUDE 4 4 69 611¼   616 621¾ (hernandez rey)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00 15% 5.70 15.57  
 
CD-4   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:30
:214 :454 :583     1:12   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  GETTIN PAID 6 6 21½ 32   1½ 11¼ (morey e)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 9.08  
4  RATE CONFIRMATION 4 1 41¾ 1nk   2½ 21¼ (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00 6.75  
3  BOUDIN 3 2 54¼ 44   52½ 33 (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 3.00 27% 2.70 3.18 S
5  VIOLENT RIVER 5 8 811¾ 55½   42½ 43 (hartman chris)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 ★ 4.30  
8  BRILLIANT COLORS 8 3 31½ 2nk   31 53½ (asmussen m)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 ★ 7.52  
7  FEELING 7 4 64¾ 710   68½ 613¾ (delgado gustavo)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 19.35  
1  WHOOP GONE 1 5 11½ 68   79½ 724¼ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 ★ 1.99  
2  GOLDEN SIMMS 2 7 710¼ 818   822 848 (medina robert)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 16.75  
SCR  RETAINED               (west w)MACHADO LUAN 119 1.60 49% 1.00    
 
CD-5   11/17/2022 4620ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
:23 :464 1:111     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  CAMP DAVID 6 1 2nk 1nk   11½ 1nk (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 2.46  
4  IBERVILLE 3 6 65¼ 68   42½ 2nk (tomlinson a)ROCCO S 118 3.50 11% 8.50 1.65 P
5  GORMLEYS GOT GAME 4 3 3.2 42   31½ 34¼ (forster t)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00 3.76  
7  CAMINERO 5 2 41¾ 3½   21½ 47 (gutierrez faustio)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50 38% 1.60 4.33  
1  LIGHTNING STRUCK 1 5 53¼ 55½   58 59¼ (asmussen m)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00 12.52  
3  ATTA BOY ANTHONY 2 4 1nk 2nk   610½ 615½ (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 118 8.00 ★ 12.25  
SCR  CLASSIC KING               (claire alexis)LANERIE J 118 4.00 15% 5.60    
SCR  DOUBLE THUNDER               (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 118 12.00 10% 9.00    
 
CD-6   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
:212 :444 :57     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ASH FLAT 1 5 1nk 11½   11 1nk (hartman chris)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 5.00 ★ 1.66  
6  TANGO CHARLIE 6 1 63¼ 32   31½ 2nk (maker j)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.00 18% 4.50 2.60 P
7  GRAY ATTEMPT 7 2 52¾ 53   52½ 31½ (corrigan jim)LANERIE J 120 4.00 43% 1.30 5.66 S
5  SPANKHURST 5 3 42¾ 21½   21 41¾ (garcia genaro)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.50 4.59  
3  SHADOW MATTER 3 6 32½ 43   41½ 52¾ (asmussen m)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.50 ★ 5.22  
4  POWELL 4 4 75¾ 65½   67 610 (sherman justin)SHERMAN ALEXANDRA 110 30.00 9% 9.80 44.33  
2  HOOPERDRIVESTHBOAT 2 7 2nk 77½   710½ 723¼ (habeeb j)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 19.70  
 
CD-7   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
:212 :444 :573     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RELEASE MCCRAKEN 1 4 2½ 1½   11½ 11½ (calhoun bret)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.50 18% 4.50 2.63 W
4  GLOBAL SURPRISE 4 3 44 34   33½ 21½ (delgado gustavo)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 2.50 33% 2.00 2.00 P
10  SIR 9 1 911½ 78   78 34¾ (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 ★ 20.51 S
9  FIRST CLASS HARLOW 8 8 76 55   56 44¾ (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 10.00 30.39  
3  SEAS OF NORMANDY 3 2 1½ 2½   21½ 55 (jones larry)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 5% 19.00 5.69  
5  FIGHT FIERCELY 5 7 66 66   45½ 65½ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 25% 3.10 4.74  
2  PAYNTED BLUE 2 9 88½ 88¼   88½ 79¼ (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 37.92  
6  WESTERN COMMAND 6 6 55 99¾   99½ 811½ (foley greg)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 39.64  
7  TAP DANCE TANGO 7 5 33 44   66 912¼ (asmussen m)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 5.59  
SCR  CHLOE'S DREAM               (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/17/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:33
:24 :47 1:112 1:371   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  PIONEER OF MEDINA 2 5 54½ 45 42¼ 2½ 1½ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 43% 1.30 2.94 W
6  WARRIOR JOHNY 5 4 43½ 33½ 3.2 1½ 2½ (bauer a)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 1.40 0.47  
4  DROPPIN G'S 3 3 32½ 23 1nk 33 37½ (antonuik jerry)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 ★ 7.37 S
1  AWESOME AARON 1 1 12½ 13 2nk 43 49¼ (green troy)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 9% 9.90 8.34  
5  MIDNIGHT J J 4 2 22½ 55 527¼ 547 5100 (brownfield claude)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 5% 19.00 17.76  
SCR  GUNTON ROE               (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
SCR  MAJOR GENERAL               (brisset rodolphe)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00 10% 8.90    
 
CD-9   11/17/2022 3300ft DIRT FAST Allowance   Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
:22 :45       :571   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  WILLTORUN 4 9 55 33   21½ 11¼ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 28.92  
5  SKELLY 5 2 11½ 11½   11½ 21¼ (asmussen m)HERNANDEZ J 120 1.60 44% 1.30 0.61 P
9  B SUDD 9 1 45 53½   33½ 33½ (stewart dallas)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 31% 2.20 5.18 S
2  IMPROBABLE JOURNEY 2 10 86¾ 43½   43½ 44 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 ★ 8.72  
1  SEIZE THE NIGHT 1 8 65½ 86½   66 55¾ (lukas wayne)COURT K 118 20.00 14.51  
7  SPARTY SENSE 7 6 75¾ 75½   76½ 66½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00 25.25  
3  LET MY PEOPLE GO 3 11 109¼ 98½   86¾ 76½ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 ★ 11.14  
8  BACK TO NORMAL 8 7 98¾ 1010½   96¾ 86½ (maker j)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 ★ 23.14  
11  YOU MAKE ME HAPPY 11 4 21½ 21½   55 98¼ (veinot trudy)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 57.46  
6  DARK TIMBER 6 3 33 64   107¼ 1010 (casse w)SANTANA JR 120 10.00 24.05  
10  FIRST CROWNED 10 5 119¼ 1122½   1132¼ 1144¾ (sanchez jimenez)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00 90.66  
 
CD-10   11/17/2022 5610ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt   Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:35
:24 :47 1:131 1:384   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEFINING PURPOSE 1 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 12½ 16 (mcpeek g)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 19% 4.10 1.33 W
7  BIG DIG 7 7 66 65¼ 53¼ 42¾ 26 (drury jr)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 6% 15.80 4.09 P
5  GONNA CUT IT 5 6 78 78¼ 63¾ 32½ 37¼ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 5.00 11.49  
4  THESTRAL 4 3 2½ 2½ 2nk 22½ 48½ (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 8% 11.00 3.71  
3  PERFECT ROSE 3 4 810 810¾ 88¾ 66¾ 510¾ (vasquez sr)COURT K 119 15.00 36.48  
6  LADAN 6 5 32 32 31½ 56¼ 617¼ (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 37.68  
2  TEQUILA EMPIRE 2 2 55 55 76¾ 79¼ 720 (diodoro robertino)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 38% 1.60 4.60  
9  ROCKABILLIE 8 8 42½ 42 43 811¼ 829½ (ortiz alexander)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 14.67  
SCR  STAGE BELL               (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.