Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 17, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DESOTO'S WAR Oct14 Sep23 Sep07 Aug11 Jul21 (forster grant)GILLIGAN JACK 120 1.80 20% 4.00    
2  LAKE TAHOE Sep16 Aug08 Jul09 May26 May01 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 29% 2.50    
3  WEST WARPATH Oct14 Oct01 Sep21 Jul22 Jul03 (cano mun)CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00    
4  PLEMMONSTON Oct02 Sep16 Aug23 Jun22 May30 (leonard g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00    
5  CHASIN CHARLIE Nov03 Oct14 Sep21 Sep08 Aug20 (richardson )MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00 7% 13.20    
6  HOT PASTRAMI Oct14 Sep23 Jul07 Apr08 Mar19 (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.50 ★    
7  DUDLEY Nov08 Oct19 Oct04 Sep27 Aug30 (douaihy michel)AYALA ISAIAS 118 12.00 20% 4.10    
SCR  Z U AT THE RACES Oct05 Sep02 Aug16 Aug05 Jul20 (vaughn terry)CANUTO THIAGO 120 15.00    
 
CD-2   11/17/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VERDANDI Nov03 Oct13 Jun22 Jun03 Apr26 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.00 9% 10.60    
2  JACKIE'S LOVE Oct06 Aug29 Jul14 Jun30   (olivo dai)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 ★    
3  SWEET TRUFFLES Oct19 Sep16 Aug12 Jul15 Jul03 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 124 2.50 8% 12.00    
4  ISABEL DE CLARE Oct20 Sep17 Aug14     (wojczynski)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00    
5  JAMS TOP SHELF Oct29         (jennings jose)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 30.00    
6  SEIVER Oct24 Sep08 Aug24 Jul23 Jun22 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 58% 0.70    
7  DOGWOODS BECCA Nov03 Sep16 Sep02 Aug11 Jul21 (scott anthony)CANUTO THIAGO 121 20.00    
8  LA CHAPEAU Oct13         (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00    
9  SWEET VALERIA Nov03 Oct03 Sep18 Mar19 Feb11 (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 12.00 ★    
 
CD-3   11/17/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  H. T. XENA Oct21 Aug11 Jun29 May21 Apr16 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50 ★    
2  MY MY MUNNY Nov02 Oct25 Oct12 Sep29 Sep16 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 120 5.00 27% 2.70    
3  SHANIAH Oct21 Oct01 Aug16 Jul27 Jun17 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 2.00 ★    
4  MY DAMS ATITUDE May06 Apr29 Apr08 Mar13 Feb21 (hernandez)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00 15% 5.70    
5  LOVE OF MY LIFE Oct21 Sep16 Jul12 Jun23 May05 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00    
6  ARGUMENTAL Oct26 Mar27 Feb18 Jan15   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.80 28% 2.60    
 
CD-4   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHOOP GONE         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 ★    
2  GOLDEN SIMMS         (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
3  BOUDIN Oct28 Sep30       (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 3.00 27% 2.70    
4  RATE CONFIRMATION Oct23 Sep23       (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
5  VIOLENT RIVER         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 ★    
6  GETTIN PAID         (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
7  FEELING         (delgado gus)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
8  BRILLIANT COLORS Oct02 Jul17       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  RETAINED Oct14 Sep11 Aug06 Jul08   (west w)MACHADO LUAN 119 1.60 49% 1.00    
 
CD-5   11/17/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIGHTNING STRUCK Nov02 Aug28 Jul10 Jun24 May21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00    
SCR  CLASSIC KING Nov02 Oct12 Sep13 Sep01 Aug25 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 118 4.00 15% 5.60    
3  ATTA BOY ANTHONY Oct19 Sep27 Sep04 Aug20 Jul02 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 118 8.00 ★    
4  IBERVILLE Sep28 Aug23 Jun12 May07 Mar23 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 3.50 11% 8.50    
5  GORMLEYS GOT GAME Oct26 Sep23 Sep01 Aug18 Jul21 (forster gra)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00    
SCR  DOUBLE THUNDER Nov04 Oct26 Sep24 Aug26   (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 118 12.00 10% 9.00    
7  CAMINERO Oct09 Aug13 Jul17 Jun09 Apr09 (gutierrez fa)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50 38% 1.60    
8  CAMP DAVID Oct27 Oct01 Sep14 Jun12 May17 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
 
CD-6   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ASH FLAT Sep28 Aug18 Jul01 Jun08 May31 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 5.00 ★    
2  HOOPERDRIVESTHBOAT Oct15 Sep01 Jun26 May05 Mar10 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00    
3  SHADOW MATTER Oct15 Sep23 Sep03 Jul20 Jun26 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.50 ★    
4  POWELL Sep27 Sep02 Aug05 Jul19 Jul01 (sherman j)SHERMAN ALEXANDRA 110 30.00 9% 9.80    
5  SPANKHURST Oct27 Sep23 Sep06 Aug15 Jul27 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.50    
6  TANGO CHARLIE Nov02 Sep28 Aug25 Jul20 Jun19 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.00 18% 4.50    
7  GRAY ATTEMPT Oct27 Oct07 Aug23 Jul13 Jun21 (corrigan jim)LANERIE J 120 4.00 43% 1.30    
 
CD-7   11/17/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RELEASE MCCRAKEN Oct21 Sep17 Aug06     (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.50 18% 4.50    
2  PAYNTED BLUE         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
3  SEAS OF NORMANDY Oct21 Sep21       (jones la)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  GLOBAL SURPRISE Oct18 Sep24 Aug27     (delgado gus)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 2.50 33% 2.00    
5  FIGHT FIERCELY Sep30 Aug28 Jul22 Jun23   (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 25% 3.10    
6  WESTERN COMMAND Sep29         (foley greg)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
7  TAP DANCE TANGO         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
SCR  CHLOE'S DREAM         (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
9  FIRST CLASS HARLOW Oct23         (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 10.00    
10  SIR Oct28 Oct07 Sep08     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 ★    
 
CD-8   11/17/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AWESOME AARON Nov02 Aug27 Jul23 Jun04 Mar20 (green troy)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 9% 9.90    
SCR  MAJOR GENERAL Sep30 Jul09 Jun04 May07 Apr16 (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00 10% 8.90    
3  PIONEER OF MEDINA Oct20 Aug23 May07 Mar26 Feb19 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 43% 1.30    
4  DROPPIN G'S Nov04 Jun25 Jun12 May21 Apr29 (antonuik jerr)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 ★    
5  MIDNIGHT J J Oct13 Sep01 Aug11 Jul20 Jun07 (brownfield claud)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  WARRIOR JOHNY Sep24 Aug18 Jul04 Jun18 May07 (bauer philip )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 1.40    
SCR  GUNTON ROE Sep14 Aug14 Jul12 Jun01   (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
 
CD-9   11/17/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEIZE THE NIGHT         (lukas wayne)COURT K 118 20.00    
2  IMPROBABLE JOURNEY Sep22 Jun19 May28 May07 Apr16 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 ★    
3  LET MY PEOPLE GO Nov04 Oct14 Sep22 Jul30 Jul02 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 ★    
4  WILLTORUN Oct16 Aug21       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
5  SKELLY Oct02 Jul31       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 1.60 44% 1.30    
6  DARK TIMBER Sep24 Jul29 Jul14 Jun19 May22 (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 10.00    
7  SPARTY SENSE Oct14 Apr08 Mar17 Feb12   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
8  BACK TO NORMAL Feb11 Jan15       (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 ★    
9  B SUDD Apr23 Mar25       (stewart d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 31% 2.20    
10  FIRST CROWNED Nov01 Sep20 Aug08 Jul12 May04 (sanchez emma )CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
11  YOU MAKE ME HAPPY Oct22 Oct08 Sep11 Jul22 Jul03 (veinot trudy)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
 
CD-10   11/17/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEFINING PURPOSE Oct20         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 19% 4.10    
2  TEQUILA EMPIRE Sep29 Jul23 Jul02     (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 38% 1.60    
3  PERFECT ROSE Nov02 Oct13 Sep29 Sep16 Sep08 (vasquez ger)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 15.00    
4  THESTRAL Oct16 Sep07       (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 8% 11.00    
5  GONNA CUT IT Jun29 Jun08       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 5.00    
6  LADAN Nov10 Oct20 Sep24 Jul31 Jun29 (bogle fergus)CASTANON L 119 15.00    
7  BIG DIG Sep29 Jul31       (drury thom)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 6% 15.80    
SCR  STAGE BELL Sep22         (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  ROCKABILLIE         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.