Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 29, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/29/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 5:00
See original race card.
:242 :49 1:14 1:391   1:453   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DRE ME LESS 3 1 11 11 11 14 15 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 2.50 1.33  
TEQUILA EMPIRE 1 5 4 43 33 24 25 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.00 56% 0.80 3.54 P
TRUISM 5 3 21 21 21 35 3 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 17% 4.90 5.34 S
PERFECT ROSE 6 6 68 68 59 49 411¼ (vasquez sr)COURT K 119 10.00 13.44  
FROSTY DIVA 4 4 54 54 610½ 518 527½ (forster grant )BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 25.89  
REINA BELLA 2 2 3 3 45 618½ 632 (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 2.33  
 
CD-2   09/29/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
See original race card.
:24 :474 1:121 1:37   1:432   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PALACE COUP 1 2 1½ 1½ 1nk 13 1 (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 2.12  
SPA CITY 2 4 3 42 3 23 2 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 15% 5.60 1.04 P
SUGOI 4 1 2½ 2½ 2nk 34 3 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 122 6.00 10% 8.70 2.62 S
MY SIXTH SENSE 3 3 42 3 4 45 46 (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00 6.87  
SCR  GALERIO               (cash l)BEJARANO R 122 2.00 47% 1.10    
 
CD-3   09/29/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:58
See original race card.
:233 :473 1:132 1:261   1:39   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AMARYLLIS 5 5 3½ 3½ 1½ 11 1 (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 27% 2.70 2.33 W
BIG DIG 1 6 63 42 4 21 2 (drury thomas)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 20% 4.10 6.01 P
COTTON CANDY ANNIE 6 4 52 53 3½ 33 3 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 3.09 S
JANIS JOPLIN 2 2 2nk 1½ 2½ 43 4 (casse mark)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 0.80 27% 2.70 1.38  
STEEL RACER 4 3 1nk 2½ 5 515 522¾ (walden wil)SANTANA JR 119 15.00 12.55  
BASILICA D ORO 3 1 41 6 69 616½ 626½ (orantes r)BAILEY CHEL-C 114 20.00 29.58  
SCR  STAGE BELL               (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
 
CD-4   09/29/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
See original race card.
:233 :471 1:12     1:243   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUPER CAT LADY 2 2 2 2½   1 1 (tomlinson michael)LANERIE J 121 4.00 5.96  
FANTAIL (GB) 3 3 1 1½   2 2 (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00 41% 1.40 1.25 P
MONOCACY 5 5 5 5   3 3 (king )FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 8.00 22.23  
VERKLIMT 7 7 76 7   5 4 (divito james)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 18% 4.70 2.47  
PONTIFFANY 4 1 4 4   4 512 (barrett roddina)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 10.00 22.22  
MORE ROMANCE 6 4 64 32   610½ 618½ (scherer mariann)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.50 19% 4.30 4.15  
MOUDARI 1 6 33 6   712½ 718¾ (schlenk k)GRAHAM J 120 8.00 16.41  
SCR  BEACH KITTEN               (scherer marianne)RIQUELME J 118 8.00    
 
CD-5   09/29/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:56
See original race card.
:223 :462 :583     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUPER WONDER GIRL 5 5 32 4   2½ 1nk (williamson bri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.50 7.15  
MY MY MUNNY 6 7 6 3   1½ 2nk (stuart shea)BAILEY CHEL-C 116 5.00 12% 7.60 4.05 P
BEACHSIDE BUNNY 9 1 2½ 11   3½ 32 (blair jordan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 6.00 9% 10.80 5.36 S
WORLD OF WONDER 1 3 1½ 21   42 4 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.50 26% 2.90 2.21  
GIRLS A BULLET 7 2 74 65   54 5 (vance thoma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 7% 13.50 12.12  
CLEVER TALE 3 4 8 810   79 69 (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 121 8.00 20% 4.00 6.65  
EVERYOTHERWON 8 8 42 5   68 711½ (lauer)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00 13.38  
DIAMOND LYDIAMARIE 2 6 53 7   8 812½ (esquivel jes)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00 7.55  
KITTY'S PROMISE 4 9 9 911½   911 913½ (faircloth aveor)GILLIGAN JACK 121 20.00 32.29  
 
CD-6   09/29/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 7:25
See original race card.
:223 :461 :58     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TRES SOLES 4 1 11 2nk   1nk 1¼ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 26% 2.90 1.61 W
REAGAN 7 2 21 1nk   2nk 2¼ (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 119 10.00 11.11  
11  MACKMAN 9 7 7 5   5 3 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 12.41  
ACCIDENT 2 10 63 8   6 48 (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 8.00 18% 4.60 15.72  
12  SIR ROCK 10 3 3 4   4 510¼ (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 6.29  
MAJOR BLUE 6 6 42 33   36 613¾ (lukas wayn)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 20.15  
DEVILS RED 1 4 52 7   710¾ 715¼ (o'neill doug)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 2.60  
10  WESTERN COMMAND 8 9 8 6   812¾ 816½ (foley greg)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 21.14  
CREPE YARNS 5 5 1013¼ 1018¼   917¾ 916½ (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 119 20.00 20.33  
TAPPING OUT A TUNE 3 8 9 911¼   1019¼ 1024 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 15.75  
SCR  BE RUTHLESS               (jazdzewski j)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 20.00    
SCR  BIG HAT WILLIE               (morey)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 15.00    
SCR  DOUBLE BARREL               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
SCR  MOBSTER               (casse mark)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 10.00    
 
CD-7   09/29/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:54
See original race card.
:244 :491 1:133 1:382   1:511   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) 4 1 11 11 1 11 12 (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 117 10.00 14.87  
MICROCAP 1 4 4 4 32 21 22 (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 4.43 P
DESIGNER READY 6 6 3 21 2 33 3 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 6.87  
SMARMY 3 3 6 65 6 44 43 (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00 18% 4.70 6.36  
SALUTE THE FLAG 5 2 21 3 4 6 53 (jones larr)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 23% 3.30 1.92  
MISTY VEIL 2 5 5 5 5 54 6 (amoss thoma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.00 31% 2.20 1.77  
 
CD-8   09/29/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:113     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SLIM MAN 3 2 52 54   2nk 1¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 18% 4.50 2.33 W
DERIVATIVE 4 8 3½ 1½   1nk 2¾ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 6.00 14% 6.30 8.45 P
BEYBLADER 1 1 85 8   5 3 (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 8.33  
TRIPLE OPTION 6 4 2½ 2½   3 4 (medina rober)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00 10.45  
STREET FIGHT 9 5 7 7   4 5 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 121 8.00 6.76  
10  KENRIC 10 3 6 6   78 611 (huffman pat)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 20.00 43.49  
RUMBLE READY 5 9 1½ 32   67 711¾ (margo)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00 18.98  
VALE 7 7 9 910   911 812½ (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 10.00 26.64  
ROUGH SKETCH 8 11 1015½ 1015   1013½ 915½ (colebrook ben)GARCIA MARTIN 124 10.00 18.38  
11  MAHONEY ROAD 11 6 4 42   810 1015½ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 46% 1.20 2.36  
TEBOW 2 10 1122½ 1131½   1154½ 1181¾ (vaccarezza c)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00 38.54  
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.