Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 29, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/29/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEQUILA EMPIRE Jul23 Jul02       (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.00 56% 0.80    
2  REINA BELLA Aug26         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 ★    
3  DRE ME LESS Aug13         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 2.50 ★    
4  FROSTY DIVA Aug07         (forster gran)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00    
5  TRUISM Jul14         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 17% 4.90    
6  PERFECT ROSE Sep16 Sep08 Aug13 Aug07 Jul31 (vasquez sr)COURT K 119 10.00 ★    
 
CD-2   09/29/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PALACE COUP Sep01 Jul21 Jun18 Mar19 Jan29 (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 ★    
2  SPA CITY Sep01 Jul09 Jun23 Apr22 Mar05 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 15% 5.60    
SCR  GALERIO Apr21 Mar19 Feb19 Jan29   (cash l)BEJARANO R 122 2.00 47% 1.10    
4  MY SIXTH SENSE Aug21 Jun23 May13 Apr02 Mar13 (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00 ★    
5  SUGOI Feb19         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 6.00 10% 8.70    
 
CD-3   09/29/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG DIG Jul31         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 20% 4.10    
2  JANIS JOPLIN Sep03 Aug07 Jul14 Jun29   (casse mar)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 0.80 27% 2.70    
SCR  STAGE BELL Sep22         (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00 ★    
4  BASILICA D ORO Sep05 Aug14 Jul17     (orantes r)DIAZ RENE 114 20.00    
5  STEEL RACER         (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 119 15.00    
6  AMARYLLIS Aug21         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 27% 2.70    
7  COTTON CANDY ANNIE Sep03 Jul31 Jun29 Jun08   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 ★    
 
CD-4   09/29/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOUDARI Sep10 Aug27 Jul09 Jun24 May15 (schlenk k)GRAHAM J 120 8.00    
2  SUPER CAT LADY Aug29         (tomlinson micha)LANERIE J 121 4.00 ★    
3  FANTAIL (GB) Sep13 Aug14       (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00 41% 1.40    
4  PONTIFFANY Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 Jul09 May30 (barrett roddi)BAILEY CHEL-C 118 10.00    
5  MONOCACY Sep16 Aug06 Jul17 Jun17 May27 (kin)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 8.00    
6  MORE ROMANCE Sep16 Aug03 Jul14 May13   (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.50 19% 4.30    
SCR  BEACH KITTEN Sep22 Jun24 Jun08 May19 May09 (scherer marianne)RIQUELME J 118 8.00 ★    
8  VERKLIMT Jun17 May19 Apr27 Mar27   (divito jam)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 18% 4.70    
 
CD-5   09/29/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WORLD OF WONDER Aug23 Jul24 Jun24 Jun09 May26 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.50 26% 2.90    
2  DIAMOND LYDIAMARIE Sep02 Aug22 Aug08 Jul11 Jun11 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
3  CLEVER TALE Aug22 Aug09 Jul05 Jun23 Jun08 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 121 8.00 20% 4.00    
4  KITTY'S PROMISE Sep12 Aug19 Jul15 Jun21 May27 (faircloth ave)GILLIGAN JACK 121 20.00    
5  SUPER WONDER GIRL Aug29 Aug06 Jun23 May27 May03 (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.50    
6  MY MY MUNNY Sep16 Aug19 Jul31 Jul17 Jul03 (stuart shea)BAILEY CHEL-C 116 5.00 12% 7.60    
7  GIRLS A BULLET Sep05 Aug08 Jul13 Jun24 Jun02 (vance tho)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 7% 13.50    
8  EVERYOTHERWON Aug03 Jun29 May26     (lau)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00    
9  BEACHSIDE BUNNY Aug15 Jul12 Jun09 May12 Apr08 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 9% 10.80    
 
CD-6   09/29/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MOBSTER         (casse mar)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 10.00    
2  DEVILS RED         (o'neill do)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 ★    
3  ACCIDENT Sep08 Aug26 Aug13 Jul16 Jul08 (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 8.00 18% 4.60    
4  TAPPING OUT A TUNE         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
5  TRES SOLES         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 26% 2.90    
6  CREPE YARNS         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
7  MAJOR BLUE         (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
SCR  DOUBLE BARREL         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
9  REAGAN         (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 119 10.00    
10  WESTERN COMMAND         (foley greg)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
11  MACKMAN         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
12  SIR ROCK         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 ★    
SCR  BE RUTHLESS Aug30         (jazdzewski)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 20.00    
SCR  BIG HAT WILLIE         (mor)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 15.00    
 
CD-7   09/29/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MICROCAP Jul09 Jun25 Jun04 May06 Apr09 (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 ★    
2  MISTY VEIL Aug19 Jul09 Jun12 May06 Feb27 (amoss tho)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.00 31% 2.20    
3  SMARMY Sep15 Jul12 Jun23 May07 Mar23 (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00 18% 4.70    
4  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) Aug21 Aug07 Jun11 May29 May03 (meah m)DIAZ RENE 117 10.00 ★    
5  SALUTE THE FLAG Aug14 Jun11 May21 Mar31 Feb13 (jones la)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 23% 3.30    
6  DESIGNER READY Sep01 Jun24 May26 Apr23   (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 122 5.00    
 
CD-8   09/29/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEYBLADER Aug27 Jun26 Jun09 May05 Mar26 (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 121 12.00    
2  TEBOW Aug07 Jul24 Jun12     (vaccarezza)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00    
3  SLIM MAN Jul31 Mar13 Jan29     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 18% 4.50    
4  DERIVATIVE Sep03 Jul22       (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 6.00 14% 6.30    
5  RUMBLE READY Feb11         (mar)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00 ★    
6  TRIPLE OPTION Sep13 Aug21 Jul31     (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 10.00    
7  VALE Aug13 Jul15       (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 10.00    
8  ROUGH SKETCH         (colebrook ben)GARCIA MARTIN 124 10.00    
9  STREET FIGHT Aug01 Jul11 May29 May01   (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 8.00 ★    
10  KENRIC Sep12 Aug24 Aug11 May20 Apr20 (huffman pa)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 20.00    
11  MAHONEY ROAD Apr16 Mar17       (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 46% 1.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.