Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 28, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/28/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:231 :462 1:111     1:233   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRAGANZA 6 6 4 2nk   16 112¼ (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 1.52  
PLEASE BE KIND 7 1 32 4¾   26 212¼ (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 1.20 35% 1.90 1.54 P
LITTLE SISTER SUE 5 5 76 5   510 314 (reed r)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00 14.22  
SOMEBODY LOVES ME 3 2 2 1nk   38 415½ (walsh p)GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.50 34% 2.00 6.14  
ROLLESTON 2 4 1 3½   48 516¼ (colebrook be)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 6% 16.40 8.21  
SOUTH GEORGIA 1 3 65 7   612½ 622¾ (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00 18.08  
LITERARY 4 7 54 6   715 724 (colebrook b)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 16.35  
 
CD-2   09/28/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:243 :491 1:134 1:381   1:442   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ICARUS 3 3 11 1 1 13 1 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00 48% 1.10 1.41 W
1A  CENTURION 4 2 5 53 43 23 2 (schultz lindsay)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00 25% 3.10 3.02 P
DECLARE THE MOON 2 4 3 4 53 3 34 (hawley wesle)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 10.65  
DEEP STATE 6 5 4 3 2 54 4 (lynch brian)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 2.50 2.85  
SONO GRATO 1 6 65 6 6 44 5 (williamson bri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 14.98  
KEEPCALMCARRYON 5 1 21 2 32 6 67 (margolis stephe)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.00 6.04  
SCR  NOTABLE EXCEPTION               (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 122 4.00    
 
CD-3   09/28/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:234 :474 1:132 1:254   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRINCELY 1 4 42 32 4 12 1½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 1.80 18% 4.40 0.89 W
LET ME LOVE YOU 3 6 53 5 5 3 2½ (mcpeek kenn)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 3.00 27% 2.80 4.69 P
CAMBIASO 5 2 21 21 3½ 22 33 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 28.79  
WICKED SECRET 2 5 6 6 64 5 43 (stewart dal)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50 1.78  
GHOSTSTRYDER 6 3 31 4 2nk 4 5 (morey e)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 14.44  
OVERLY D'ORO 4 1 11 11 1nk 65 610 (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 7% 13.40 18.28  
SCR  MOTOWN COLLECTION               (rone mike)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 27% 2.60    
 
CD-4   09/28/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:22 :452 :573     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ATRAS 1 4 1½ 1   13 15 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 24% 3.20 3.80 W
ONCOMING TRAIN 3 1 2½ 2   23 25 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00 9% 9.70 5.06 P
GOLD HERITAGE 5 5 5 44   4 3 (mckeever and)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 7.63 S
TRAINER PLEASE 9 7 41 32   3 4 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 1.60 30% 2.30 1.82  
MALIBU TIME 7 9 89 610½   5 58 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00 25.08  
JESUIT 8 8 78 59   610 614 (baker james)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00 23.42  
FRISCO LINE 6 6 31 711   716 727¼ (vanden brit)ROCCO S 118 10.00 8% 10.90 4.16  
PRESTONSBIRD 2 2 65 816   819½ 830¾ (richardson tim)GRAHAM J 121 20.00 72.24  
OUT WORK'N 4 3 9100 9100   9100 9100 (calvo kelsie)DIAZ RENE 121 10.00 10.99  
 
CD-5   09/28/2022 4950ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:23 :462 1:114     1:314   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ENCHANTED NILE 3 5 2½ 2nk   1 1 (reed r)CORRALES GERARDO 121 12.00 19.07  
AWESOME INDRA 1 4 31 32   2 2 (joseph saf)SANTANA JR 121 2.00 46% 1.20 2.18 P
ABSOLUTE LOVE 4 2 42 4   45 3 (sharp joe)LEPAROUX R 121 1.80 24% 3.20 1.18 S
NORTHERN DIAMOND 7 3 1½ 1nk   33 4 (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 123 5.00 4.17  
MOHAYLADY 2 1 75 7   5 5 (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00 9.72  
MAGICAL PEAPOD 6 6 6 6   6 6 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 4.00 6% 15.80 12.07  
KIMBERLEY DREAM 5 7 54 55   7 7 (winston d)CASTANON L 123 15.00 35.57  
 
CD-6   09/28/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:223 :451 1:10     1:23   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OURNATIONONPARADE 5 5 53 4   1½ 1 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.50 30% 2.30 1.85 W
SUPREMACY 3 1 31 3½   2½ 2 (cox h)SANTANA JR 121 1.60 23% 3.40 1.85 P
SONNEMAN 4 2 77 7   5 3 (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 10.58  
OUTLIER 6 6 42 52   43 4 (cash l)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 13.77  
WAYAKIN 2 4 2½ 2nk   3 5 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 9% 10.70 5.50  
TANGO CHARLIE 7 7 6 63   77 611 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00 22.82  
ASH FLAT 1 3 1½ 1nk   6 716 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 16% 5.10 5.18  
 
CD-7   09/28/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:223 :463 :584     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIME FOR CHAMPAGNE 4 2 2 2½   12 1hd (arnold georg)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 8.59  
JACKIE'S SPIRIT 2 6 32 32   22 2hd (vaccarezza c)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00 8.52  
CAMP AKEELA 3 4 1 1½   3 3 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 23% 3.40 4.71 S
ROYAL DAME 1 7 64 5   5 47 (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 6.67  
JOB'S NOT FINISHED 5 3 54 77   67 5 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 30% 2.30 1.23  
10  STAR POSE 8 1 4 43   4 611¼ (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00 4.66  
SUSIE'S SAVER 6 5 75 810½   711 712¾ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00 19.69  
RECOGNIZE ME 7 8 8 6   811½ 816½ (blair jordan)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 37.40  
SCR  BONANZA GRADE               (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 15% 5.70    
SCR  SHEWILLGHOSTU               (reed r)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 10% 9.00    
 
CD-8   09/28/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:241 :492 1:143 1:382   1:501   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WEST WILL POWER 1 2 11 1½ 11 1 1 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 1.80 1.14  
INTREPID HEART 2 4 5 6 7 54 2 (sharp joe)LEPAROUX R 122 2.00 60% 0.70 2.27 P
CUPID'S CLAWS 3 1 31 31 4 43 33 (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 26.13  
1A  KITTANSETT 6 7 7 5 52 3 4 (lobo paulo)SANTANA JR 122 10.00 3.16  
ETHICAL JUDGEMENT 7 3 4 42 21 2 5 (walsh p)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00 12.69  
VINTAGE PRINT 5 6 6 7 63 610 615 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 10.00 3.16  
HELIUM 4 5 21 2½ 31 715 733¾ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 4.00 13% 6.80 9.87  
SCR  KEYSTONE FIELD               (maker j)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00    
 
CD-9   09/28/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:241 :483 1:132 1:381   1:443   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
13  TONAL IMPACT 11 11 8 7 74 5 1½ (hartman chri)CORRALES GERARDO 124 8.00 15% 5.50 3.41 W
ICE BLAST 3 1 1 1½ 1nk 1nk 2½ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 3.33  
IBERVILLE 4 4 2 2½ 2nk 2nk 3½ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 6.79  
AKTULGALI 1 6 65 6 5 42 41 (pletcher a)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 17% 5.00 5.96  
10  TUANIS 9 3 4 4 31 31 5 (glyshaw tim)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00 6% 15.40 20.49  
12  HAIG POINT 10 10 5 55 63 65 64 (maker j)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00 9% 9.60 6.76 DH
GOOD CULTURE 5 8 10 1010½ 10 76 64 (shirer matt)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00 6.73 DH
FED MONEY 2 2 3 32 42 8 8 (davis christ)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 28.64  
VASARIANO 7 9 9 8 8 10 911 (cash l)COURT K 122 12.00 14.76  
OPTIMUS KAT 8 5 76 9 9 9 1013 (lukas wayn)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00 14.45  
CRIMINAL DEFENSE 6 7 1112¾ 1122½ 1126¾ 1127¼ 1137 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 122 20.00 58.19  
SCR  AMERICAN PURE               (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
SCR  ENDLESS SUNSET               (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 117 10.00    
SCR  SLICKED BACK               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 25% 3.10    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.