Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 28, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/28/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOUTH GEORGIA Sep05 Aug10 Jun23 May26 May06 (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00 ★    
2  ROLLESTON Aug07 Jul10       (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 6% 16.40    
3  SOMEBODY LOVES ME Aug06 Jul10 May05 Apr14 Mar13 (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.50 34% 2.00    
4  LITERARY         (colebrook)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
5  LITTLE SISTER SUE         (reed r)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00    
6  BRAGANZA         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 ★    
7  PLEASE BE KIND Sep17 Aug07 Jul02 Jun04 Apr23 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 1.20 35% 1.90    
 
CD-2   09/28/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  CENTURION Aug15 Jul23 Apr30 Apr08 Mar04 (schultz linds)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00 25% 3.10    
SCR  NOTABLE EXCEPTION Jul03 Jun12 May21 Apr20 Jan07 (shirer m)SANTANA JR 122 4.00    
2  SONO GRATO Aug20 Jun30 Jan07     (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 ★    
3  DECLARE THE MOON Jul24 Jun22 Jun03 Apr07 Mar17 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
4  ICARUS Aug25 Jun18 Apr29 Mar05 Feb10 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00 48% 1.10    
5  KEEPCALMCARRYON Jul04 May29       (margolis step)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.00 ★    
6  DEEP STATE Sep08 Aug06 Jul09 May21 Apr03 (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 2.50 ★    
 
CD-3   09/28/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCELY Sep15         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 1.80 18% 4.40    
2  WICKED SECRET Aug31         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50    
3  LET ME LOVE YOU Sep05 Aug10       (mcpeek ke)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 3.00 27% 2.80    
SCR  MOTOWN COLLECTION Aug23         (rone mike)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 27% 2.60    
5  OVERLY D'ORO Sep07 Aug09 Jul24 Jul02 May29 (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 7% 13.40    
6  CAMBIASO Sep22 Aug27 Jul24 Jul10   (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
7  GHOSTSTRYDER Aug28         (morey william)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 ★    
 
CD-4   09/28/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ATRAS Aug26 Jul04 Apr23 Mar18   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 24% 3.20    
2  PRESTONSBIRD Sep06 Aug20       (richardson tim)GRAHAM J 121 20.00    
3  ONCOMING TRAIN Jul03 Jun05 Apr23 Feb11 Jan17 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00 9% 9.70    
4  OUT WORK'N Sep20 Sep06 Aug22 Jul29 Jun19 (calvo kels)VILLASANA CARLOS 121 10.00    
5  GOLD HERITAGE Aug29 Jul28 Jun20 May15   (mckeever a)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 ★    
6  FRISCO LINE Jul31 Feb12 Jan02     (vanden br)ROCCO S 118 10.00 8% 10.90    
7  MALIBU TIME Aug07 Jul03 Jun10 May13 Apr03 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
8  JESUIT Feb28 Feb12 Jan27     (baker james)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
9  TRAINER PLEASE Aug23 Jun19 May20 Apr10 Mar20 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 1.60 30% 2.30    
 
CD-5   09/28/2022 4950ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AWESOME INDRA Aug21 Jul23 Jun19 Apr23 Mar26 (joseph s)SANTANA JR 121 2.00 46% 1.20    
2  MOHAYLADY Sep18 Jul24 Jun22 May21 May03 (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00    
3  ENCHANTED NILE Jul07 Jun01 May03 Mar26   (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 121 12.00 ★    
4  ABSOLUTE LOVE Jun29 Jun05 Apr22 Jan28   (sharp joe)LEPAROUX R 121 1.80 24% 3.20    
5  KIMBERLEY DREAM Sep12 Aug22 Aug09 Jun10 May20 (winston d)CASTANON L 123 15.00 ★    
6  MAGICAL PEAPOD Feb13 Jan15       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 4.00 6% 15.80    
7  NORTHERN DIAMOND Sep02 Aug14 Jun29 May07 Mar20 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 123 5.00    
 
CD-6   09/28/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ASH FLAT Aug18 Jul01 Jun08 May31 May04 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 16% 5.10    
2  WAYAKIN Sep08 Jul24 Jun19 Apr16 Mar18 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 9% 10.70    
3  SUPREMACY Aug21 Jul17 Jun10 Apr16 Apr02 (cox brad)SANTANA JR 121 1.60 23% 3.40    
4  SONNEMAN Sep01 Jul16 Jun16 Apr30 Apr02 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
5  OURNATIONONPARADE Aug02 Jun22 May15 Apr29 Mar01 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.50 30% 2.30    
6  OUTLIER Aug15 Aug08 Jul29 Jul10 Jul04 (cash l)BEJARANO R 121 12.00    
7  TANGO CHARLIE Aug25 Jul20 Jun19 May22 Apr09 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00 ★    
 
CD-7   09/28/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BONANZA GRADE Jul22         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 15% 5.70    
2  ROYAL DAME         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
3  JACKIE'S SPIRIT         (vaccarezza)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
SCR  SHEWILLGHOSTU Jun22         (reed eric)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 10% 9.00    
5  CAMP AKEELA Sep05 Jul15       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 23% 3.40    
6  TIME FOR CHAMPAGNE         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
7  JOB'S NOT FINISHED         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
8  SUSIE'S SAVER         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
9  RECOGNIZE ME         (blair jordan)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
10  STAR POSE Aug07 Jul09 Jun19     (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00 ★    
 
CD-8   09/28/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VINTAGE PRINT Aug26 Jul15       (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 124 10.00    
1A  KITTANSETT Aug07 Jun18 May07     (lobo pau)SANTANA JR 122 10.00 ★    
2  WEST WILL POWER Aug06         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 1.80 ★    
3  INTREPID HEART Aug13 Jun23 Apr30 Mar24 Mar01 (sharp joe)LEPAROUX R 122 2.00 60% 0.70    
4  CUPID'S CLAWS Sep01 Aug07 Apr02 Feb25 Jan01 (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
5  HELIUM Aug13 Jul09 May22 May01   (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 4.00 13% 6.80    
SCR  KEYSTONE FIELD Sep10 Jul04 Jun17 May07 Mar19 (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00    
7  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Jul24 Jul01       (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00 ★    
 
CD-9   09/28/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AKTULGALI May01 Apr09 Mar19 Feb16   (pletcher a)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 17% 5.00    
2  FED MONEY Sep14 Jul29 Jun23 May30 May12 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
3  ICE BLAST Sep14 Jul30 Jul09 Jun11 May19 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 3.00    
4  IBERVILLE Aug23 Jun12 May07 Mar23 Mar05 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
5  GOOD CULTURE Aug24 Jul24 Jun11 Apr22 Mar20 (shirer ma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
6  CRIMINAL DEFENSE Aug25 Jul30 Jun18 Apr24 Feb13 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 122 20.00    
SCR  SLICKED BACK Sep10 Jul01 May01     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 25% 3.10    
8  VASARIANO Aug25 Aug18 Jun24 Jun10   (cash l)COURT K 122 12.00    
9  OPTIMUS KAT Aug20 Jul09 May13 Apr21 Mar06 (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00    
10  TUANIS Aug27 Aug03 Jun09 Mar25   (glyshaw tim)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00 6% 15.40    
SCR  ENDLESS SUNSET Sep17 Sep07 Jul09 Jun26 Jun12 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 117 10.00    
12  HAIG POINT Sep01 Jul15 May20 Mar17 Jan08 (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 10.00 9% 9.60    
13  TONAL IMPACT Sep18 Aug10 Jul15 May29 Apr15 (hartman ch)CORRALES GERARDO 124 8.00 15% 5.50    
SCR  AMERICAN PURE Aug20 Jul15 May21 Apr20 Mar12 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.