Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Friday - September 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:222 :471 :593     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CANDY KICK 2 2 53 3½   11 1 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 12% 7.10 0.89 W
OPEN SAYS ME 4 4 31 1½   21 2 (williamson bri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 6.00 5.54  
1A  TIAN'AI ROAD 6 6 6 57   5 3 (williamson brian)RIQUELME J 121 6.00 5.54  
JUNELLIA 5 1 21 2½   45 410½ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.50 61% 0.60 2.40  
OUR LADY NELSON 3 3 11 68   614½ 530¾ (fletcher kevi)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 6.00 24.45  
BACKSTREET AFFAIR 1 5 4 42   32 6100 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 3.50 4.01  
SCR  LANDED GENTRY               (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
 
CD-2   09/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($60K) 3 ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:231 :46 1:102     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ZIPPIN GIGI 5 2 2nk 1nk   1nk 1hd (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.00 1.13  
MALIBU S S 1 5 31 3   3 2hd (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 30% 2.40 3.40 P
DOCTOR NASH 2 3 1nk 2nk   2nk 3¼ (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 118 12.00 8% 11.50 6.23 S
BLUE KENTUCKY 4 1 6 6   45 45 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 4.50 2.89  
READY PURSUIT 6 6 5 5   6 510¼ (antonuik jer)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00 25.04  
WAITA MINUTE HAYES 3 4 4 4   59 610¼ (courville r)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 11.08  
SCR  PRAYFORPEACE               (simms jr)COHEN DAVID 118 2.50 32% 2.10    
 
CD-3   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:221 :454 :572     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AIR COMBAT 2 3 1½ 1nk   1 1 (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 118 2.00 1.46  
DR. PERRY 1 4 3 32   34 2 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60 43% 1.30 2.04 P
NEW YEAR'S FEVER 5 2 2½ 2nk   2 3 (steele brandi)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 8% 11.40 28.92 S
SEAL BEACH 4 6 5 65   57 4 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 3.37  
TRASHTALKINYANKEE 6 1 6 5   4 5 (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00 18% 4.60 5.27  
YOU VEE CEE 3 5 42 4   69 613½ (deville j)COHEN DAVID 121 6.00 16.38  
 
CD-4   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:222 :462 :582     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOREVER HOME 8 6 6 2½   1½ 12 (williamson bri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 3.00 10% 8.90 2.64 W
LOUELLA STREET 7 1 5 31   2½ 22 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 3.25  
ECLIPSED 5 2 4 54   35 3 (fletcher ke)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 24% 3.20 5.35 S
SWEET ANNABELLA 4 5 77 711   611 412½ (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 118 3.50 11% 7.90 2.76  
GREEN BANANAS 2 8 810 813   814 513 (manley stev)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 5.74  
SIS BOOM BOB 1 3 1½ 1½   4 613 (gonzalez rein)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 4.50 25% 3.10 12.91  
PAPPYSAYSYES 6 7 3 68   712½ 716¾ (catalano m)COHEN DAVID 113 8.00 25.97  
SWEET GINGER 3 4 2½ 4   58 817 (hancock dana)BAYS BROOKE 111 20.00 44.78  
 
CD-5   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:221 :461 :584     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TELL ME WHEN 8 1 2½ 1nk   2nk 1nk (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 17% 4.90 10.38 W
MALIBU TOAST 1 6 32 31   1nk 2nk (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 4.97 P
VALIANT PRAISE 5 3 5 5   4 3¼ (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 4.50 4.69 S
ROCKET CITY 3 5 43 45   5 4 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 15.38  
BLACK FOREST 2 2 1½ 2nk   3.2 52 (gutierrez faust)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 34% 2.00 1.83  
NOMADIC PRIDE 6 4 7 6   6 6 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 26% 2.90 2.13  
RYE MUNNY 7 8 810½ 714½   717¾ 723½ (wilkes ian)SANTANA JR 119 15.00 29.90  
OPTIMIZME 4 7 66 815½   820¾ 837 (pinzon maria)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 20.00 63.84  
 
CD-6   09/30/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:231 :48 1:124 1:372   1:50   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ELEVEN CENTRAL 7 3 1 1½ 1nk 2nk 1nk (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 19% 4.20 2.83 W
DIGITAL 2 1 4 42 32 1nk 2nk (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 3.00 14% 6.30 3.95 P
MAJOR GENERAL 1 5 5 5 5 45 3 (brisset ro)SANTANA JR 118 6.00 25% 3.00 6.72 S
CLAYTNTHELIONHEART 4 6 6 7 6 6 48 (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 122 4.00 2.99  
RODERICK 5 2 2 2½ 2nk 33 511 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 8% 11.80 3.20  
PEEKACHO 6 4 3 3 4 58 611¼ (vance david )HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 10.39  
PALAZZI 3 7 7 6 7 711½ 717½ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 8.00 21.71  
 
CD-7   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:213 :454 :581     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TWO MINUTE DRILL 7 1 3 22   1 1 (barkley jas)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 38% 1.70 4.85 W
JUSTIFYING 4 4 2 3   2 2 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 25% 3.00 2.35 P
TAKE SHAPE 5 3 68 6   4 3 (arnold george )LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 15.34  
STELLAR LILY 3 6 1 12   3 46 (moquett ro)SANTANA JR 119 15.00 2.82  
QUEEN OF CHILL 8 5 5 47   57 510¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 12% 7.20 3.72  
MISS QUEST 6 2 45 5   613 619¾ (morey e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 9.70  
AMERICAN ODALISQUE 2 8 812½ 715½   719 720 (caramori caio)ACHARD ALEX 119 8.00 20.35  
GAVINERA 1 7 711 823½   828 832¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 13.68  
SCR  SAUCY SECRET               (hobby steve)ROCCO S 119 5.00    
 
CD-8   09/30/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:234 :49 1:133 1:374   1:494   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DECISION MAKER 4 6 6 5 5 2 12 (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 12% 7.40 2.68 W
SEARCH ENGINE 5 3 3 3 31 3 22 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 3.76  
SCARLET FUSION 2 4 21 2½ 1½ 1 3 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 23% 3.40 2.75 S
COMMON BOND 6 7 7 7 74 44 4 (reed r)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 13.94  
ALEJANDRO 3 5 43 4 4 5 5 (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 27% 2.70 3.39  
UNINVITED GUEST 1 2 11 1½ 2½ 6 68 (margolis stephen)ROCCO S 118 6.00 9% 9.70 10.23  
AMERICAN HERO 7 1 5 63 6 710¾ 718½ (flint s)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00 11.38  
 
CD-9   09/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:231 :473 1:122     1:25   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOW DID HE DO THAT 3 2 2½ 1nk   1 1 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 4.16  
BOUDIN 1 6 5 5   34 2 (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 10.00 9.42  
FIGHT FIERCELY 5 8 8 8   46 3 (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 45% 1.20 2.77 S
YACHT ROCK (IRE) 6 3 31 2nk   2 4 (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 11.92  
10  MAMBA FOREVER 9 9 7 7   5 5 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 14.50  
DAY TRADE 7 5 6 6   6 611¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 33% 2.00 4.25  
DON'T LET GO 4 7 912½ 9   812 712¾ (lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 28.83  
BOLT ABOVE 8 1 42 4   710½ 818½ (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 3.17  
KING ME 2 4 1½ 3.2   916 925¼ (catalano wayn)PETERSON FERRIN 119 8.00 18.19  
SCR  ARROGANT RIDER               (morey e)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.