Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OPEN SAYS ME Sep08 Aug05 Jun29     (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 6.00    
1A  TIAN'AI ROAD Sep08         (williamson brian)RIQUELME J 121 6.00    
2  BACKSTREET AFFAIR Sep05 Jul29 Jul08 Jun11   (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 3.50 ★    
3  CANDY KICK Aug14 Jun19       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 12% 7.10    
SCR  LANDED GENTRY Sep16 Jul17 Jun18     (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 ★    
5  OUR LADY NELSON Sep14 Aug30       (fletcher kev)WISEMAN ISAIAH 121 6.00 ★    
6  JUNELLIA Aug27 Aug15 Jun23 May16   (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.50 61% 0.60    
 
CD-2   09/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($60K) 3 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALIBU S S Aug20 May31 May07 Mar26   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 30% 2.40    
2  DOCTOR NASH Jun19 Jan19       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 12.00 8% 11.50    
SCR  PRAYFORPEACE Aug20 Aug01 Jul11 Jul02 Jun19 (simms jr)COHEN DAVID 118 2.50 32% 2.10    
4  WAITA MINUTE HAYES Aug25         (courville)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  BLUE KENTUCKY Sep08 Jul17 Jun19 May29 Apr14 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 4.50 ★    
6  ZIPPIN GIGI Sep03 Jun30 Jun12 Apr14 Mar19 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.00    
7  READY PURSUIT Sep06 Aug22 Aug09 Jul12 Jun30 (antonuik jerr)CANUTO THIAGO 120 15.00    
 
CD-3   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DR. PERRY Aug20         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60 43% 1.30    
2  AIR COMBAT Aug14 Jul15       (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 118 2.00 ★    
3  YOU VEE CEE May08 Apr23 Apr02 Mar20 Feb26 (deville j)COHEN DAVID 121 6.00 ★    
4  SEAL BEACH Sep03 Aug17 Jul03 Jun12   (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00    
5  NEW YEAR'S FEVER Sep08 Aug22 Aug03 Jul09 Jun16 (steele brandi)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 8% 11.40    
6  TRASHTALKINYANKEE Sep06 Aug08 Jul10     (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00 18% 4.60    
 
CD-4   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIS BOOM BOB Sep06 Aug17 Jul19 Jul09 Jun17 (gonzalez re)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 4.50 25% 3.10    
2  GREEN BANANAS Sep16         (manley st)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 ★    
3  SWEET GINGER Sep15 Aug09 May12 Apr20 Mar02 (hancock dana)BAYS BROOKE 111 20.00    
4  SWEET ANNABELLA Aug08 Jul19 Jun24     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 3.50 11% 7.90    
5  ECLIPSED Sep15 Aug23 Jun23 May15 Apr10 (fletcher )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 24% 3.20    
6  PAPPYSAYSYES Sep15 Apr10 Feb11     (catalano m)DIAZ RENE 113 8.00    
7  LOUELLA STREET Aug05 Jul23 Jun26 May26 Jan01 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
8  FOREVER HOME Sep16 Aug29 Jun09 May14 Apr23 (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 3.00 10% 8.90    
 
CD-5   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALIBU TOAST         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 ★    
2  BLACK FOREST Aug13 Jun19 Jun03     (gutierrez fau)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 34% 2.00    
3  ROCKET CITY Aug25         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
4  OPTIMIZME         (pinzon mar)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 20.00    
5  VALIANT PRAISE Sep03 Aug13       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 4.50 ★    
6  NOMADIC PRIDE         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 26% 2.90    
7  RYE MUNNY         (wilkes i)SANTANA JR 119 15.00    
8  TELL ME WHEN Sep01 Jul21 Jun23     (hamm timot)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 17% 4.90    
 
CD-6   09/30/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAJOR GENERAL Jul09 Jun04 May07 Apr16 Mar12 (brisset )SANTANA JR 118 6.00 25% 3.00    
2  DIGITAL Sep16 Aug13 Jun22 May06 Mar18 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 3.00 14% 6.30    
3  PALAZZI Sep05 Jul24 Jun19 Apr27 Feb10 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 8.00    
4  CLAYTNTHELIONHEART Aug11 Jun30 Jun05     (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 122 4.00 ★    
5  RODERICK Aug24 Jul28 Jul04 Jun17 May20 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 8% 11.80    
6  PEEKACHO Aug20 Jul15 Jun30 Jun18 Apr29 (vance davi)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00    
7  ELEVEN CENTRAL Aug13 Jul09 May28 May07 Mar25 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 19% 4.20    
 
CD-7   09/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GAVINERA         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
2  AMERICAN ODALISQUE         (caramori caio)ACHARD ALEX 119 8.00 ★    
3  STELLAR LILY         (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 15.00    
4  JUSTIFYING Aug17         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
5  TAKE SHAPE         (arnold georg)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
6  MISS QUEST         (morey e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
SCR  SAUCY SECRET         (hobby steve)ROCCO S 119 5.00 ★    
8  TWO MINUTE DRILL Aug26 Jul14       (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 38% 1.70    
9  QUEEN OF CHILL         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 12% 7.20    
 
CD-8   09/30/2022 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNINVITED GUEST Aug05 Jul09 Jun09 May13 Mar23 (margolis steph)ROCCO S 118 6.00 9% 9.70    
2  SCARLET FUSION Aug13 Jul01 Jun05 Feb25 Jan08 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 23% 3.40    
3  ALEJANDRO Sep10 Aug19 Jul02 Jun09 May12 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 27% 2.70    
4  DECISION MAKER Sep10 Jul01 Jun05 May08 Mar26 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 12% 7.40    
5  SEARCH ENGINE Aug20 Jul02 May28 Apr16 Feb18 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
6  COMMON BOND Jul17 May22 Apr24 Mar17   (reed r)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 ★    
7  AMERICAN HERO Sep05 Aug22 Jul30 Jul15 Jun30 (flint bernard)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
 
CD-9   09/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOUDIN         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
2  KING ME         (catalano wa)PETERSON FERRIN 119 8.00 ★    
3  HOW DID HE DO THAT Aug28 Jun23       (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.00    
4  DON'T LET GO         (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 ★    
5  FIGHT FIERCELY Aug28 Jul22 Jun23     (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  ARROGANT RIDER         (morey william)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
7  YACHT ROCK (IRE)         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 ★    
8  DAY TRADE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 33% 2.00    
9  BOLT ABOVE Sep01         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
10  MAMBA FOREVER Aug28 Jul24       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.