Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 19, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:104     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LOOT THE MOON 6 2 1½ 1nk   1 1 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 124 4.50 8.26  
SCOTCH NO ROCKS 1 7 7 6   43 2 (roberson dennis)LEBRON VICTOR 122 6.00 15.24  
12  MYUDDERMAMASAPAINT 11 6 4 3.2   2 3 (barrett roddina )ELLIOTT JANE 124 12.00 5% 19.00 23.43 S
11  SPUNS SON 10 10 12 1211½   11 4 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 23.75  
14  TIMEHASCOME 12 1 3½ 2nk   3 5 (romans dale)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 5.97  
BRODY'S FLY 8 9 11 1010½   8 67 (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 12.00 16.85  
10  RA'S AL GHUL 9 3 64 75   7 77 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00 30.07  
SUPE 5 4 53 5   5 8 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 122 5.00 8% 12.00 3.19  
THE BIG MOZZ 3 5 2½ 4¼   6 9 (trujillo elvi)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 5.00 51% 0.90 7.51  
SUMMER LOVER 2 8 10 9   9 10 (williamson bria)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00 5% 19.00 40.77  
NICHOLAS JONES 7 12 98 1111   1212¼ 11 (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 10% 9.20 5.17  
SOUTHERN SENSE 4 11 8 87   10 1211 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 4.00 4.33  
SCR  BIG PETE               (barrett roddi)PETERSON FERRIN 122 6.00    
SCR  GIRO D'ORO               (pincins robert )CANNON DECLAN 124 20.00    
 
CD-2   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:212 :443 :564     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MIDASWELLRUN 1 5 52 5   3 1 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 6.07  
STEELY DANZA 3 2 31 2nk   1nk 2 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 1.08 P
LANSDOWNE (GB) 6 1 11 1nk   2nk 33 (lukas wayn)MURRILL MITCHELL null   6.61  
HOLIDAY HOUSE 2 3 21 3   4 45 (morrison mik)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 4.78  
MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE 5 4 4 4   5 5 (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 68% 0.50 13.12  
ROMANCER 4 6 6 6   611½ 620 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 3.60  
 
CD-3   11/19/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:231 :461 1:11     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUITABLE 2 6 4 4   2nk 1¾ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 26% 2.80 1.60 W
YACHT ROCK (IRE) 9 5 31 3.2   1nk 2¾ (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 26% 2.80 4.00 P
BORN FLAWLESS 6 4 2nk 2nk   32 3 (heitzman eri)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 61.41  
LED TASSO 7 7 52 5   4 4 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 6.34  
COLLECTORATE 5 2 6 73   5 5 (cook b)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 10.57  
DUPLANTIS 8 10 8 8   6 612 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 15% 5.80 3.36  
COACH ROGERS 1 3 1nk 1nk   7 714¾ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 14.00  
10  LET'S GO RANDOM 10 9 7 6   8 815¾ (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00 17.39  
KING SHAMAN 4 1 9 1010½   917¾ 924¼ (navarrete an)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00 67.26  
WINNING DANCE 3 8 10 910½   1018 1025½ (desormeaux keith)DIAZ RENE 114 15.00 7% 13.50 38.02  
 
CD-4   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:213 :444 :571     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CONDENSATION 4 2 2nk 1nk   11 1½ (cano munoz)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 26% 2.90 5.68 W
FRIGID LADY 2 5 5 5   31 2½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 29% 2.50 1.64 P
HAPPY CLOUDS 6 1 4¾ 2nk   21 35 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 33.90  
MOON MAGIC CHRISSY 3 6 6 4¾   43 46 (danner doug)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 6.00 9.95  
GIRL AFRAID 5 3 3½ 6   6 511¼ (kintz matt)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 3.96  
SAENZ 1 4 1nk 3.2   5 612 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.00 13% 6.90 1.75  
SCR  CUPIDS PAYDAY               (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 120 12.00 10% 8.90    
 
CD-5   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:212 :443 :57     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
F FIVE 6 4 7 67   54 1nk (lynch brian)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00 8.33  
TOWN BRANCH 1 6 64 44   3 2nk (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 8.00 9.42 P
CAPE TRAFALGAR (IRE) 5 8 21 2nk   1½ 3½ (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 55% 0.80 0.98 S
WOODLINE 9 2 53 32   42 44 (reed r)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 22% 3.50 3.38  
CLOUD WITHOUT REIN 8 1 11 1nk   2½ 5 (barnett c)COURT K 122 4.00 11.03  
YODASON 3 7 8 810½   67 6 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 10.34  
MY ROAD 2 5 42 78   7 7 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00 64.27  
WITHOUT A SONG 4 9 9 910¾   910 814½ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 122 8.00 12.79  
YOLO SANTIAGO 7 3 3 55   8 916¾ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 56.77  
 
CD-6   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:221 :45 1:103     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BROMLEY 6 4 21 21   2 1 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 23.05  
KENTUCKY JOKER 4 3 42 6   4 2 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 34.54  
11  LARK'S MISCHIEF 10 1 11 11   1 3 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 3.80 S
EASY ACTION 1 2 5 4   3 4 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 38% 1.60 2.24  
DREAM FORCE 7 6 32 32   6 510½ (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 17% 5.00 12.98  
10  LIBERTANGO 9 7 6 53   5 611 (catalano m)LANERIE J 119 12.00 20.33  
SHAKE UP 2 8 9 912½   916 720¾ (calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00 46.18  
REAGAN 3 5 7 87   711 821½ (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 22% 3.50 2.04  
EDDIE M 8 9 8 7   813½ 946 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 17.27  
CHICAGO'S GRAY 5 10 10100 10100   10100 10100 (asmussen steve)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 8.63  
SCR  MO HOPE               (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:221 :444 1:092 1:221   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  BLUE KENTUCKY 11 5 43 43 11 13 1 (wong jonat)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 13% 6.50 1.83 W
AMPERSAND 4 12 1111 8 65 23 2 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00 12% 7.10 4.94 P
CARTIER CAT 7 8 7 53 3 3 3 (silva h)BEJARANO R 121 15.00 29.33  
ARTHURIAN 6 4 32 32 21 4 4 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00 10% 8.90 23.51  
BONUS APPRECIATION 1 9 9 9 77 56 5 (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00 9.23  
12  PRIMER DIMER 12 10 6 6 88 68 611 (diodo)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00 17.85  
MULBERRY STREET 8 7 10 11 99 9 712½ (hartman chris)CANNON DECLAN 123 12.00 4.17  
PURE PANIC 2 2 1½ 1½ 5 8 813¼ (cano mu)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 32.95  
EXPLOSIVE 3 1 2½ 2½ 4 79 913½ (o'neill doug)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 30% 2.30 3.92  
JUANITA'S EXPRESS 9 6 8 10 1011½ 1011 1014 (deegan joseph)STERRITT KENDAL 121 15.00 5% 18.50 59.15  
10  CRIMINAL DEFENSE 10 11 1211¼ 1210¼ 1114 1115 1118½ (barnett c)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 20.00 95.54  
LITTLE ALEX 5 3 54 7 1222 1225 1237 (torres ale)AYALA ISAIAS 121 15.00 71.06  
SCR  KIDYOUNOT               (barnett c)COURT K 121 20.00    
 
CD-8   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:101     1:162   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CORONA BOLT 2 3 32 1nk   12 11 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 8% 12.10 2.30 W
COMMUNICATION MEMO 7 2 2½ 2nk   22 21 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 24% 3.20 2.64 P
CARCANO 5 4 77 7   56 35 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 42% 1.40 3.54 S
SURFACE TO AIR 8 8 65 5   33 4 (miller darri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 5% 19.00 15.54  
COLLIER'S TIME 1 6 5 6   66 5 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 12.35  
EVENT DETAIL 3 5 4 4   4 6 (lobo h)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5.89  
COMMANDER REX 6 7 9 911¾   710 712¾ (ortiz a)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00 55.94  
11  MUTAAWID 10 10 10 1012¼   810¼ 812¾ (pletcher t)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 12.86  
SECRET POCKET 9 9 8 810¼   912¾ 917¼ (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 29.33  
RIDGEPOINT ROAD 4 1 1½ 3   1017¾ 1025¼ (catalano wayne )MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 78.10  
SCR  PINFIRE               (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
 
CD-9   11/19/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:242 :494 1:142 1:392   1:46   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUSTIFY MY LOVE (BRZ) 4 3 5 3 32 2½ 1¼ (lobo paulo )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 5.00 2.64  
NEW ROO 1 1 1½ 1½ 1 1½ 2¼ (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 18.27  
BARISTA 7 7 6 53 53 32 3 (baker james)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 4.25  
10  FAIRCHILD 8 8 7 8 6 54 4 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 3.94  
CALDEE 5 5 31 42 42 44 5 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 4.09  
11  FAIR GAME 9 4 4 6 7 76 610½ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 18.20  
LAURA'S CHARM 3 2 2½ 2½ 2 65 711½ (kerrick lacy)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 8.44  
ROUGHLY A DIAMOND 2 9 9 96 9 9 812 (nihei michelle)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 9.10  
UNDISTURBED 6 6 8 7 8 8 912½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 12.00 24.05  
13  CHEROKEE SONG 10 10 10 10 10 1011½ 1016 (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 121 20.00    
SCR  ILLIOGAMI               (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 10% 8.70    
SCR  JAG WARRIOR               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  WICKED GROOVE               (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 3.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  MICROCAP               (forster gran)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
SCR  MISTY VEIL               (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  POLKA POLENTA               (davis jos)DE CRUZ 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DREAMWORKER               (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
SCR  LADY FROSTED               (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
 
CD-10   11/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:224 :453 1:101 1:222   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHE CAN'T SING 5 3 1nk 2nk 1 1 1 (block chris)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 14% 6.30 3.52 W
ICE ORCHID 3 1 4 41 3 2 2 (ortiz a)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 8.68  
LIBERTY M D 6 6 3½ 3½ 2 33 36 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 121 8.00 7% 12.60 5.92 S
COACH 1 4 6 6 5 46 411¼ (cox h)SANTANA JR 121 1.80 38% 1.60 1.45  
EMPIRE HOUSE 4 2 2nk 1nk 6 611 525½ (wong jonathan)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00 26.26  
MARIAH'S PRINCESS 2 5 5 52 42 5 630 (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.00 2.34  
SCR  CENTER AISLE               (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00 12% 7.20    
 
CD-11   11/19/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:05
See original race card.
:241 :484 1:132 1:382   2:03   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WAR CAMPAIGN 5 31 4 42 2 21 1¼ (sims a)LANERIE J 118 2.50 15% 5.60 2.83 W
STRONG QUALITY 1 11 11 11 1 11 2¼ (casse mark)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 55% 0.80 1.36 P
GATE RUNNER 6 5 6 63 4 3 3 (pletcher todd )GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 2.34 S
TEN GAUGE 3 21 21 21 3 4 4 (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00 9.76  
O P FIRECRACKER 2 4 31 3 6 6 515¼ (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00 32.62  
COMPLETE AGENDA 4 6 5 52 55 5 615¼ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 8.40  
SCR  CHROME REPUBLIC               (biancone pa)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
SCR  DOCTOR NASH               (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 120 10.00 6% 15.00    
SCR  JR'S GIFT               (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 118 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.