Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 19, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:104     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  LOOT THE MOON 6 2 1½ 1nk   12½ 12½ (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 124 4.50 8.26  
1  SCOTCH NO ROCKS 1 7 75½ 64¾   43 22½ (roberson denn)LEBRON VICTOR 122 6.00 15.24  
12  MYUDDERMAMASAPAINT 11 6 41½ 3.2   22½ 35½ (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 124 12.00 5% 19.00 23.43 S
11  SPUNS SON 10 10 129¼ 1211½   119¾ 46¾ (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 23.75  
14  TIMEHASCOME 12 1 3½ 2nk   32½ 56¾ (romans dal)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00 5.97  
9  BRODY'S FLY 8 9 118¼ 1010½   88¼ 67 (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 12.00 16.85  
10  RA'S AL GHUL 9 3 64 75   76¾ 77 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00 30.07  
6  SUPE 5 4 53 52¾   54½ 87¼ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 5.00 8% 12.00 3.19  
3  THE BIG MOZZ 3 5 2½ 4¼   64¾ 97¾ (trujillo el)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 5.00 51% 0.90 7.51  
2  SUMMER LOVER 2 8 108¼ 99½   99¼ 108½ (williamson br)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00 5% 19.00 40.77  
8  NICHOLAS JONES 7 12 98 1111   1212¼ 119¾ (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 10% 9.20 5.17  
4  SOUTHERN SENSE 4 11 87½ 87   109¾ 1211 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 4.00 4.33  
SCR  BIG PETE               (barrett rod)PETERSON FERRIN 122 6.00    
SCR  GIRO D'ORO               (pincins rober)CANNON DECLAN 124 20.00    
 
CD-2   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:212 :443 :564     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDASWELLRUN 1 5 52 51¾   31½ 12¼ (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 ★ 6.07  
3  STEELY DANZA 3 2 31 2nk   1nk 22¼ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 ★ 1.08 P
6  LANSDOWNE (GB) 6 1 11 1nk   2nk 33 (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL null   6.61  
2  HOLIDAY HOUSE 2 3 21 31½   42½ 45 (morrison m)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 ★ 4.78  
5  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE 5 4 41½ 41¾   53½ 56¼ (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 68% 0.50 13.12  
4  ROMANCER 4 6 62½ 66¾   611½ 620 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 ★ 3.60  
 
CD-3   11/19/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:231 :461 1:11     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  SUITABLE 2 6 41½ 41¼   2nk 1¾ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 26% 2.80 1.60 W
9  YACHT ROCK (IRE) 9 5 31 3.2   1nk 2¾ (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 26% 2.80 4.00 P
6  BORN FLAWLESS 6 4 2nk 2nk   32 34¼ (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00 61.41  
7  LED TASSO 7 7 52 51¼   42¼ 44¾ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 6.34  
5  COLLECTORATE 5 2 62½ 73   54¼ 56½ (cook b)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 10.57  
8  DUPLANTIS 8 10 84¾ 83½   65¾ 612 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 15% 5.80 3.36  
1  COACH ROGERS 1 3 1nk 1nk   75¾ 714¾ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 14.00  
10  LET'S GO RANDOM 10 9 72¾ 61½   87¾ 815¾ (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00 17.39  
4  KING SHAMAN 4 1 97¼ 1010½   917¾ 924¼ (navarrete )CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00 67.26  
3  WINNING DANCE 3 8 107¼ 910½   1018 1025½ (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 114 15.00 7% 13.50 38.02  
 
CD-4   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:213 :444 :571     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  CONDENSATION 4 2 2nk 1nk   11 1½ (cano muno)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 26% 2.90 5.68 W
2  FRIGID LADY 2 5 51¼ 51¼   31 2½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 29% 2.50 1.64 P
7  HAPPY CLOUDS 6 1 4¾ 2nk   21 35 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 33.90  
3  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY 3 6 62¼ 4¾   43 46 (danner doug)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 6.00 ★ 9.95  
6  GIRL AFRAID 5 3 3½ 63¾   65¾ 511¼ (kintz ma)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 3.96  
1  SAENZ 1 4 1nk 3.2   55½ 612 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.00 13% 6.90 1.75  
SCR  CUPIDS PAYDAY               (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 12.00 10% 8.90    
 
CD-5   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:212 :443 :57     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  F FIVE 6 4 75½ 67   54 1nk (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00 8.33  
1  TOWN BRANCH 1 6 64 44   31½ 2nk (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 8.00 ★ 9.42 P
5  CAPE TRAFALGAR (IRE) 5 8 21 2nk   1½ 3½ (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 55% 0.80 0.98 S
9  WOODLINE 9 2 53 32   42 44 (reed eric )GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 22% 3.50 3.38  
8  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN 8 1 11 1nk   2½ 54¼ (barnett c)COURT K 122 4.00 ★ 11.03  
3  YODASON 3 7 86½ 810½   67 68¼ (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 10.34  
2  MY ROAD 2 5 42 78   77½ 78½ (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00 64.27  
4  WITHOUT A SONG 4 9 98½ 910¾   910 814½ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 8.00 ★ 12.79  
7  YOLO SANTIAGO 7 3 31½ 55   89½ 916¾ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 56.77  
 
CD-6   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:221 :45 1:103     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  BROMLEY 6 4 21 21   21½ 11½ (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 ★ 23.05  
4  KENTUCKY JOKER 4 3 42 65½   43½ 21½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 34.54  
11  LARK'S MISCHIEF 10 1 11 11   11½ 32¼ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 ★ 3.80 S
1  EASY ACTION 1 2 52¼ 42½   31½ 43¾ (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 38% 1.60 2.24  
8  DREAM FORCE 7 6 32 32   66½ 510½ (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 17% 5.00 12.98  
10  LIBERTANGO 9 7 63¼ 53   55½ 611 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 12.00 20.33  
2  SHAKE UP 2 8 99¼ 912½   916 720¾ (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00 46.18  
3  REAGAN 3 5 74¾ 87   711 821½ (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 22% 3.50 2.04  
9  EDDIE M 8 9 86¼ 75½   813½ 946 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 17.27  
5  CHICAGO'S GRAY 5 10 10100 10100   10100 10100 (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 8.63  
SCR  MO HOPE               (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:221 :444 1:092 1:221   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  BLUE KENTUCKY 11 5 43 43 11 13 13½ (wong jon)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 13% 6.50 1.83 W
4  AMPERSAND 4 12 1111 85¾ 65 23 23½ (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00 12% 7.10 4.94 P
7  CARTIER CAT 7 8 75½ 53 32½ 33½ 35¾ (silva h)BEJARANO R 121 15.00 29.33  
6  ARTHURIAN 6 4 32 32 21 44½ 47¼ (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00 10% 8.90 23.51  
1  BONUS APPRECIATION 1 9 98½ 95¾ 77 56 57¼ (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00 9.23  
12  PRIMER DIMER 12 10 64½ 63¼ 88 68 611 (dio)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00 17.85  
8  MULBERRY STREET 8 7 108½ 117¾ 99 99½ 712½ (hartman chris)CANNON DECLAN 123 12.00 4.17  
2  PURE PANIC 2 2 1½ 1½ 53½ 89½ 813¼ (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 32.95  
3  EXPLOSIVE 3 1 2½ 2½ 43½ 79 913½ (o'neill do)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 30% 2.30 3.92  
9  JUANITA'S EXPRESS 9 6 86½ 106¾ 1011½ 1011 1014 (deegan jose)STERRITT KENDAL 121 15.00 5% 18.50 59.15  
10  CRIMINAL DEFENSE 10 11 1211¼ 1210¼ 1114 1115 1118½ (barnett bobby)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 20.00 95.54  
5  LITTLE ALEX 5 3 54 74¼ 1222 1225 1237 (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 121 15.00 71.06  
SCR  KIDYOUNOT               (barnett c)COURT K 121 20.00    
 
CD-8   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:101     1:162   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  CORONA BOLT 2 3 32 1nk   12 11 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 8% 12.10 2.30 W
7  COMMUNICATION MEMO 7 2 2½ 2nk   22 21 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 24% 3.20 2.64 P
5  CARCANO 5 4 77 78¾   56 35 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 42% 1.40 3.54 S
8  SURFACE TO AIR 8 8 65 53¾   33 45¼ (miller dar)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 5% 19.00 15.54  
1  COLLIER'S TIME 1 6 54½ 65¾   66 55½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 ★ 12.35  
3  EVENT DETAIL 3 5 43½ 43½   43½ 66½ (lobo h)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5.89  
6  COMMANDER REX 6 7 99½ 911¾   710 712¾ (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00 55.94  
11  MUTAAWID 10 10 109½ 1012¼   810¼ 812¾ (pletcher)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 12.86  
9  SECRET POCKET 9 9 88½ 810¼   912¾ 917¼ (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 29.33  
4  RIDGEPOINT ROAD 4 1 1½ 32½   1017¾ 1025¼ (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 78.10  
SCR  PINFIRE               (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
 
CD-9   11/19/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:242 :494 1:142 1:392   1:46   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  JUSTIFY MY LOVE (BRZ) 4 3 51½ 31½ 32 2½ 1¼ (lobo paul)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 5.00 2.64  
1  NEW ROO 1 1 1½ 1½ 11½ 1½ 2¼ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 18.27  
8  BARISTA 7 7 62½ 53 53 32 32¼ (baker jame)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 4.25  
10  FAIRCHILD 8 8 72¾ 84½ 65½ 54 43¼ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 3.94  
6  CALDEE 5 5 31 42 42 44 56¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 4.09  
11  FAIR GAME 9 4 41½ 63½ 75¾ 76 610½ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 18.20  
3  LAURA'S CHARM 3 2 2½ 2½ 21½ 65 711½ (kerrick la)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 8.44  
2  ROUGHLY A DIAMOND 2 9 95¾ 96 99¾ 99½ 812 (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 9.10  
7  UNDISTURBED 6 6 83¼ 74½ 87¾ 88½ 912½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 12.00 24.05  
13  CHEROKEE SONG 10 10 105¾ 106¼ 109¾ 1011½ 1016 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 121 20.00    
SCR  ILLIOGAMI               (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 10% 8.70    
SCR  JAG WARRIOR               (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  WICKED GROOVE               (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 3.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  MICROCAP               (forster gr)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
SCR  MISTY VEIL               (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  POLKA POLENTA               (davis j)DE CRUZ 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DREAMWORKER               (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
SCR  LADY FROSTED               (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
 
CD-10   11/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:224 :453 1:101 1:222   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  SHE CAN'T SING 5 3 1nk 2nk 11½ 12½ 13¾ (block chri)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 14% 6.30 3.52 W
  (by BERNARDINI out of DISTORTED MUSIC by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  ICE ORCHID 3 1 41½ 41 31½ 22½ 23¾ (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 8.68  
  (by SUPER SAVER out of SINGLET by REAL QUIET)
7  LIBERTY M D 6 6 3½ 3½ 21½ 33 36 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 8.00 7% 12.60 5.92 S
  (by CONSTITUTION out of DR. ZIC by MILWAUKEE BREW)
1  COACH 1 4 63½ 63½ 53½ 46 411¼ (cox brad)SANTANA JR 121 1.80 38% 1.60 1.45  
  (by COMMISSIONER out of AND STAY OUT by EXCHANGE RATE)
5  EMPIRE HOUSE 4 2 2nk 1nk 65½ 611 525½ (wong jonathan)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00 26.26  
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of MAMA YAY by MINESHAFT)
2  MARIAH'S PRINCESS 2 5 52½ 52 42 58½ 630 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.00 ★ 2.34  
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of MAYA PRINCESS by STREET SENSE)
SCR  CENTER AISLE               (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00 12% 7.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SPECIFICATION by EMPIRE MAKER)
 
CD-11   11/19/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:05
See original race card.
:241 :484 1:132 1:382   2:03   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  WAR CAMPAIGN 5 31 41½ 42 21½ 21 1¼ (sims a)LANERIE J 118 2.50 15% 5.60 2.83 W
3  STRONG QUALITY 1 11 11 11 11½ 11 2¼ (casse ma)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 55% 0.80 1.36 P
9  GATE RUNNER 6 54½ 63¾ 63 42½ 32½ 34¼ (pletcher tod)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 ★ 2.34 S
5  TEN GAUGE 3 21 21 21 31½ 42½ 45½ (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00 ★ 9.76  
4  O P FIRECRACKER 2 42½ 31 31½ 65½ 69½ 515¼ (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00 32.62  
6  COMPLETE AGENDA 4 66½ 53½ 52 55 57½ 615¼ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 8.40  
SCR  CHROME REPUBLIC               (biancone )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
SCR  DOCTOR NASH               (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 10.00 6% 15.00    
SCR  JR'S GIFT               (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 118 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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