Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 19, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Nov09 Oct26 Oct12 Aug30 Aug05 (roberson denn)LEBRON VICTOR 122 6.00    
2  SUMMER LOVER         (williamson br)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  THE BIG MOZZ         (trujillo el)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 5.00 51% 0.90    
4  SOUTHERN SENSE Oct14 Sep17 Jul31 Jun29 Jun05 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 4.00    
SCR  GIRO D'ORO Sep05 Aug15 Aug02     (pincins rober)CANNON DECLAN 124 20.00    
6  SUPE Oct28 Oct05       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 5.00 8% 12.00    
7  LOOT THE MOON Feb11         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 124 4.50    
8  NICHOLAS JONES         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 10% 9.20    
9  BRODY'S FLY Apr13 Mar12       (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
10  RA'S AL GHUL Oct16 Aug16       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00    
11  SPUNS SON Oct12 Sep05 Aug12 Jul23 May15 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
12  MYUDDERMAMASAPAINT         (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BIG PETE Nov02 Oct01 Sep15 Aug25 Jul16 (barrett rod)PETERSON FERRIN 122 6.00    
14  TIMEHASCOME May07 Mar05 Jan22     (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 6.00    
 
CD-2   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDASWELLRUN Oct19 Sep01 Apr28 Apr10 Feb27 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 ★    
2  HOLIDAY HOUSE Oct20 Oct05 Sep15 Aug22 Jul29 (morrison m)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 ★    
3  STEELY DANZA Oct19 Mar13 Feb11 Jan10   (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 ★    
4  ROMANCER Nov02 Sep11 Sep03     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 ★    
5  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE Jan15         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 68% 0.50    
6  LANSDOWNE (GB) Oct28 Sep22 Jul22 Jun30 May30 (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL null      
 
CD-3   11/19/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COACH ROGERS Jul22 Jun10       (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
2  SUITABLE Oct14 Aug27       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 26% 2.80    
3  WINNING DANCE         (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 114 15.00 7% 13.50    
4  KING SHAMAN Sep10 Aug24       (navarrete )CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
5  COLLECTORATE Sep18 Aug27 Aug06 Jul08   (cook b)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
6  BORN FLAWLESS Oct13 Sep23       (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
7  LED TASSO Oct22 Sep22 Aug28 Jul30   (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
8  DUPLANTIS Sep22 Aug05 Jun10     (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 15% 5.80    
9  YACHT ROCK (IRE) Oct23 Sep30       (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 26% 2.80    
10  LET'S GO RANDOM         (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAENZ Oct13 Sep18       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.00 13% 6.90    
2  FRIGID LADY Oct22 Sep18 Aug26 Jul22 Jul01 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 29% 2.50    
3  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Oct26 Sep16 Aug06 Jul04 May20 (danner doug)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 6.00 ★    
4  CONDENSATION Nov03 Sep16       (cano muno)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 26% 2.90    
SCR  CUPIDS PAYDAY Nov03 Oct01       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 12.00 10% 8.90    
6  GIRL AFRAID Nov02 Oct24 Oct05 Sep20 Aug31 (kintz ma)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50    
7  HAPPY CLOUDS Nov03 Sep15 Jul16 Jun23   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00    
 
CD-5   11/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOWN BRANCH Nov03 Sep18 Jul03 Jun02 Apr09 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 8.00 ★    
2  MY ROAD Sep20 Aug21       (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
3  YODASON         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
4  WITHOUT A SONG         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 8.00 ★    
5  CAPE TRAFALGAR (IRE) Oct08 Apr14 Mar12     (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 55% 0.80    
6  F FIVE         (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00    
7  YOLO SANTIAGO Oct22         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00    
8  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Oct11 Sep28 Aug30 Aug08 Jun19 (barnett c)COURT K 122 4.00 ★    
9  WOODLINE Jul19 Jun19 May28 Apr29   (reed eric )GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 22% 3.50    
 
CD-6   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EASY ACTION Sep17         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 38% 1.60    
2  SHAKE UP Sep24         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
3  REAGAN Sep29         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 22% 3.50    
4  KENTUCKY JOKER         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
5  CHICAGO'S GRAY         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00    
SCR  MO HOPE         (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
7  BROMLEY         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 ★    
8  DREAM FORCE Jul22         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 17% 5.00    
9  EDDIE M Oct21         (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
10  LIBERTANGO         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 12.00    
11  LARK'S MISCHIEF         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 ★    
 
CD-7   11/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BONUS APPRECIATION Nov02 Oct12 Sep11 Sep01 Jul23 (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
2  PURE PANIC Oct23 Sep18 Jun21 May29 May07 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
3  EXPLOSIVE Oct02 Aug19 Jul02 Jun03 May21 (o'neill do)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 30% 2.30    
4  AMPERSAND Oct20 Sep04 Jul24 May27 May08 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 6.00 12% 7.10    
5  LITTLE ALEX Sep29 Sep12 Aug16 Jul22 May23 (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 121 15.00    
6  ARTHURIAN Nov03 Oct12 Sep15 Aug21 Aug03 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00 10% 8.90    
7  CARTIER CAT Oct14 Jul21 Jun23 May31 May18 (silva h)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
8  MULBERRY STREET Nov06 Oct12 Sep01 Aug09 Jul03 (hartman chris)CANNON DECLAN 123 12.00    
9  JUANITA'S EXPRESS Mar04 Feb18       (deegan jose)STERRITT KENDAL 121 15.00 5% 18.50    
10  CRIMINAL DEFENSE Sep28 Aug25 Jul30 Jun18 Apr24 (barnett bobby)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 20.00    
11  BLUE KENTUCKY Oct14 Sep30 Sep08 Jul17 Jun19 (wong jon)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 13% 6.50    
12  PRIMER DIMER Oct23 Sep04 Aug06 May13 Apr17 (dio)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00    
SCR  KIDYOUNOT Nov03 Oct13 Aug31 Aug02 Jul07 (barnett c)COURT K 121 20.00    
 
CD-8   11/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLLIER'S TIME Oct07         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 ★    
2  CORONA BOLT         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 8% 12.10    
3  EVENT DETAIL         (lobo h)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
4  RIDGEPOINT ROAD Oct30         (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
5  CARCANO Oct21 Sep24       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 42% 1.40    
6  COMMANDER REX         (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
7  COMMUNICATION MEMO Oct21 Sep17       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 24% 3.20    
8  SURFACE TO AIR Oct21         (miller dar)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  SECRET POCKET         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
SCR  PINFIRE         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
11  MUTAAWID         (pletcher)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
 
CD-9   11/19/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEW ROO Aug21 Jun29 Jan15     (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
2  ROUGHLY A DIAMOND Oct07 Sep01 Jul23 Apr29 Mar12 (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00    
3  LAURA'S CHARM Oct13 Aug27 Jul17     (kerrick la)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
4  JUSTIFY MY LOVE (BRZ) Oct20 Sep14       (lobo paul)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 5.00    
SCR  MISTY VEIL Nov12 Sep29 Aug19 Jul09 Jun12 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  CALDEE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00    
7  UNDISTURBED Oct20 Sep13 Aug07 Jul17 May28 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 12.00    
8  BARISTA Oct20 Apr02 Jan30     (baker jame)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00    
SCR  DREAMWORKER Sep13 Jun22 May18 Mar12 Jan01 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
10  FAIRCHILD Oct07 Sep01 Jul16 May29   (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
11  FAIR GAME Sep13 Aug12 Jul17 May19 Apr24 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 10.00    
SCR  POLKA POLENTA Oct31 Oct13 Aug29 Aug16 Jul14 (davis j)DE CRUZ 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
13  CHEROKEE SONG Nov12 Oct13 Sep13 Aug18 Aug06 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 121 20.00    
SCR  WICKED GROOVE Oct20 Sep22 Aug27 Jul30 Jun14 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 3.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  MICROCAP Oct28 Sep29 Jul09 Jun25 Jun04 (forster gr)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
SCR  ILLIOGAMI May06 Apr09       (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 10% 8.70    
SCR  JAG WARRIOR Oct07 Sep17 Aug13 Jul30 Jun19 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  LADY FROSTED Sep13 Aug07 Jul09 Jun04 Apr26 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
 
CD-10   11/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COACH Oct01 Feb12 Jan08     (cox brad)SANTANA JR 121 1.80 38% 1.60    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of AND STAY OUT by EXCHANGE RATE)
2  MARIAH'S PRINCESS Oct29         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.00 ★    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of MAYA PRINCESS by STREET SENSE)
SCR  CENTER AISLE Oct09 May07 Apr09     (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00 12% 7.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SPECIFICATION by EMPIRE MAKER)
4  ICE ORCHID Oct23 Sep18 Feb26 Feb11 Jan14 (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of SINGLET by REAL QUIET)
5  EMPIRE HOUSE Oct02 Sep18 Aug28 Jul23 Jun17 (wong jonathan)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of MAMA YAY by MINESHAFT)
6  SHE CAN'T SING Sep10 Aug16 Jun22 May06 Mar26 (block chri)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 14% 6.30    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DISTORTED MUSIC by DISTORTED HUMOR)
7  LIBERTY M D Oct08 Sep16 Aug07 Jun11 May14 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 8.00 7% 12.60    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of DR. ZIC by MILWAUKEE BREW)
 
CD-11   11/19/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DOCTOR NASH Nov06 Sep30 Jun19 Jan19   (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 10.00 6% 15.00    
SCR  CHROME REPUBLIC Oct26 Sep09 Mar04 Jan05   (biancone )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
3  STRONG QUALITY Oct22 Oct01 Sep03 Mar19 Feb19 (casse ma)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 55% 0.80    
4  O P FIRECRACKER Oct01 Jul02 Jun09 May17 Apr09 (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
5  TEN GAUGE Nov11 Sep23 Aug21 Jan29 Jan02 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00 ★    
6  COMPLETE AGENDA Oct01 Aug18 Jul22 May14 Apr21 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
SCR  JR'S GIFT Oct27 Oct12 Aug26 Aug06 Jul02 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 118 20.00    
8  WAR CAMPAIGN Oct22 Sep24 Aug20 Jul04 May28 (sims a)LANERIE J 118 2.50 15% 5.60    
9  GATE RUNNER Oct22 Sep23 Jul29 May30 May03 (pletcher tod)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.