Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 11, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:222 :47 :593     1:123   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  LUCY JANE 2 3 11 1nk   13 19 (vanden be)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00 ★ 2.17  
4  YOU'RE AVOIDING ME 4 4 21 2nk   23 29 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 15.00 27.47  
3  TIME FOR CUPID 3 2 32 32   35½ 310¾ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.00 73% 0.40 0.69 S
9  SHRIMPIE 8 5 78 65¾   58½ 412¾ (luce nichole)LANERIE J 122 6.00 ★ 8.65  
8  GIN N SIN 7 1 42½ 42¼   47 513 (roberson dennis)COURT K 122 5.00 ★ 10.30  
5  BODIEFUL 5 7 67½ 55¼   611 617 (wittek kary)PETERSON FERRIN 122 10.00 ★ 39.61  
1  TIAN'AI ROAD 1 8 54 76¼   712 718½ (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 24.68  
7  SUMMER AUTUMN ROSE 6 6 814 814¼   824 838¾ (scott anthony )MILLER CHASE 122 30.00 63.62  
SCR  MISS BOOTSY               (gorder kellyn)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
 
CD-2   11/11/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:23 :47 1:124     1:193   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALSANAH 1 3 32½ 34   11 13 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 ★ 2.74  
6  SHEZAPISTOL 5 1 12 12   21 23 (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00 3.75  
5  KLIMT'S MUSE 4 5 43 22   33½ 310 (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 19% 4.40 3.92 S
2  GIRLS HOUSE 2 4 22 45   46½ 416 (shirer a)CANNON DECLAN 122 4.00 14% 6.10 0.96  
3  CORTADO 3 2 54 58   511 520 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 15.00 40.59  
SCR  ROLLESTON               (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.00 20% 4.10    
SCR  STORM HAVEN               (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 27% 2.70    
 
CD-3   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:22 :461 :59     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIXIE FURY 1 4 1nk 1½   13 16¾ (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 119 1.20 32% 2.10 1.85 W
3  SHORTLY 3 5 33 33½   34 26¾ (morse l)COURT K 119 6.00 19% 4.20 5.91 P
6  HENDRIX 5 1 2nk 2½   23 38¾ (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 ★ 2.30 S
2  MIDNIGHT DREAMING 2 7 55 510½   411 419¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 8.81  
5  M B'S MUNNING 4 6 65½ 610½   615 526½ (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 8% 11.80 3.92  
8  SMALL SAILOR 7 3 43½ 48½   512½ 626½ (garcia ge)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 10.00 28.25  
7  UTOPIAN TREASURE 6 2 720½ 735½   745 765¾ (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 18% 4.50 12.15  
SCR  WICKED REVIEW               (hancock a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
 
CD-4   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:223 :463 :584     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  GRAPNEL 2 2 11½ 13   13 14 (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 120 3.00 5% 19.00 1.13 W
1  HOLY CROSS 1 4 32 23   23 24 (galindo-to)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00 ★ 7.71 P
7  DROP ANCHOR 5 3 63½ 45½   34 34½ (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 120 8.00 ★ 3.76 S
9  BRONZE BEAST 6 1 42½ 56½   59 410¾ (rouck l)RIQUELME J 120 12.00 24.52  
3  WE THANK YOU 3 5 21½ 35   48 511¾ (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 118 30.00 45.75  
10  JESUIT 7 6 75½ 711   713½ 619 (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 3.70  
6  MALIBU TIME 4 7 53½ 68   612½ 719 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 5.83  
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE               (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 74% 0.30    
SCR  MR. PETERKIN               (norris mik)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 20.00    
SCR  STEELY DANZA               (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 ★    
 
CD-5   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:221 :471 1:001     1:134   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  LUCKSME 4 5 1nk 12   15½ 18 (diodoro robe)JORDAN R 119 3.50 46% 1.20 8.41 W
7  SWEET SLEW 7 4 32 22   25½ 28 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.50 8.05  
5  SURE ENOUGH 5 2 63¾ 54¾   510 312¾ (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 17.78  
3  DOOIT 3 6 74 66¼   611½ 412¾ (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 ★ 4.27  
2  WILDCAT GIRL 2 8 42¼ 44½   48 513 (figgins olli)TROTMAN KEIMAR 119 8.00 ★ 8.26  
9  XTRASAUCEWELLDONE 9 9 1012 912¾   813 613¾ (nihei michell)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 37.52  
8  QUEEN OF CHILL 8 10 86 76¾   712½ 715½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 16% 5.20 1.05  
6  MIDNIGHT SOCIETY 6 3 2nk 32   38 817½ (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 14% 6.30 9.64  
10  RAG TOWN 10 1 912 1015¼   917 919 (sherman alan)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00 51.61  
1  LADY BRETT ASHLEY 1 7 52¼ 811¾   1020 1031¾ (heitzman er)HERRFORTH ERICA 109 15.00 49.38  
 
CD-6   11/11/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:224 :463 1:13 1:263   1:41   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  IPSUM GRATUS 7 9 86 73¾ 66 35 11¾ (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 7% 12.70 7.60 W
9  SHELL SHOCK 9 1 3½ 31 13½ 12½ 21¾ (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 5.00 3.67  
1  DIVINE HOPE 1 8 98 95¼ 23½ 22½ 32¾ (taylor brent)CASTANON L 118 8.00 6.45  
2  SHIP IT 2 2 53 41½ 55 46½ 47 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 4.00 30% 2.30 3.73  
3  INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU 3 6 75½ 83¾ 76½ 612½ 517¾ (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00 6% 15.10 16.62  
4  LOUELLA STREET 4 5 42½ 51¾ 34½ 510½ 620¾ (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 6.31  
8  BEACH KITTEN 8 7 63½ 63¼ 45 715½ 731¼ (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00 18.57  
6  JE SUIS RAPIDE 6 4 2nk 2nk 87 817 831¼ (radcliffe rober)JOHNSON M 118 10.00 13% 6.90 25.58  
5  BALLYKEEN 5 3 1nk 1nk 913 924 953½ (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 20% 4.10 2.92  
 
CD-7   11/11/2022 3300ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:222 :454       :582   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUNTY FINAL 1 2 1nk 3½   2nk 1nk (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 ★ 3.01  
4  AIR COMBAT 4 3 41 2nk   1nk 2nk (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 31% 2.20 1.52 P
2  MY MAN FLINTSTONE 2 1 2nk 1nk   3½ 33¼ (hernandez )CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00 35.00  
6  EDGE TO EDGE 6 5 51¼ 41   42½ 44¼ (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.00 10% 8.90 3.90  
3  TEMPT FATE 3 4 3½ 51½   54 55½ (deville carl)GEROUX FLORENT 120 12.00 6% 15.60 31.44  
5  FORE LEFT 5 6 73¼ 63   64½ 66¾ (dun)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 120 5.00 9.81  
7  FRANCATELLI 7 7 62¼ 74   78 718½ (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00 23% 3.40 3.73  
 
CD-8   11/11/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:224 :453 1:102 1:23   1:362   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  MR. WIRELESS 2 4 44 44 31 21½ 1nk (calhoun william )PARKER L 123 4.00 ★ 2.55  
1  HERE MI SONG 1 3 32 22 11 11½ 2nk (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00 43% 1.30 2.68 P
6  SOUTH BEND 5 5 54 57½ 52½ 33½ 3.15 (mott i)GRAHAM J 121 5.00 10% 9.20 6.87 S
7  CHESS CHIEF 6 1 21½ 32½ 42 45 49¼ (stewart dall)LOPEZ PASCACIO 121 10.00 8.26  
5  FIVE STAR GENERAL 4 2 11½ 12 21 56½ 510¼ (forster t)LANERIE J 121 5.00 ★ 4.89  
4  MYSTIC NIGHT 3 6 67½ 68½ 67½ 612½ 623¼ (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50 16% 5.40 2.92  
SCR  SILVER PROSPECTOR               (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.00    
 
CD-9   11/11/2022 5940ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:241 :482 1:132 1:40   1:54   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
15  TEN GAUGE 9 3 21 21 2½ 12 11¼ (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 17% 4.90 0.72 W
3  PUSH BUTTON 2 2 11 11 1½ 22 21¼ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00 22% 3.60 3.79 P
7  QAADER 6 4 54½ 57 54 35½ 35¼ (trujillo elvis)MARIN SAMUEL 124 12.00 48.25  
4  NASHOBA'S JOY 3 5 42½ 43½ 32 57 49¾ (morey william)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 4.00 9% 10.20 11.90  
2  VINTAGE YEAR 1 6 32½ 33 42 47 511 (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 6.96  
12  GOOD SOLDIER 8 9 88 79½ 69 613 618¾ (joseph saffi)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00 7.10  
8  INBOUND 7 8 77 69½ 711½ 715½ 723½ (rodriguez ge)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 5.00 20.35  
6  HABITUS (GB) 5 7 910½ 913 814½ 819½ 829½ (shifflett cher)AYALA ISAIAS 124 30.00 58.47  
5  LOLAS BEAU 4 1 65½ 810 916½ 922½ 934¾ (guerrero sal)RIQUELME J 121 30.00 70.74  
SCR  BLUE DEVIL               (hiles a)LANERIE J 121 3.50 31% 2.30    
SCR  CAROOM               (catalano )LEPAROUX R 121 12.00    
SCR  HE'S A ANGEL               (macias adolfo)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
SCR  KING CURLIN               (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 15.00    
SCR  MIRACLE ON ICE               (hughes g)GRAHAM J 121 10.00 ★    
SCR  MUCHO MOJO               (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.