Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 11, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIAN'AI ROAD Oct20 Sep30 Sep08     (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00    
2  LUCY JANE Oct01 Feb11 Jan14     (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 5.00 ★    
3  TIME FOR CUPID Sep16 Aug27 Aug06     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.00 73% 0.40    
4  YOU'RE AVOIDING ME Oct13         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 15.00    
5  BODIEFUL Oct14 Sep26 Sep03 Aug15   (wittek kary)PETERSON FERRIN 122 10.00 ★    
SCR  MISS BOOTSY         (gorder kellyn)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
7  SUMMER AUTUMN ROSE Oct06 Sep28 Sep16 Aug16 Jul21 (scott anthony )MILLER CHASE 122 30.00    
8  GIN N SIN Oct17 Sep30 Sep18 Jul03 Jun19 (roberson dennis)COURT K 122 5.00 ★    
9  SHRIMPIE Sep08 Aug11 Jul21 Jun17 May20 (luce nichole)LANERIE J 122 6.00 ★    
 
CD-2   11/11/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALSANAH Oct29 Sep24 Aug26     (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 ★    
2  GIRLS HOUSE Jan15         (shirer a)CANNON DECLAN 122 4.00 14% 6.10    
3  CORTADO Apr24 Apr16 Feb27     (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 15.00    
SCR  STORM HAVEN Oct26 Sep16       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 27% 2.70    
5  KLIMT'S MUSE Oct13 Aug25 Aug09 Jul03   (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 19% 4.40    
6  SHEZAPISTOL Sep25 Aug10 May19 Apr07   (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00    
SCR  ROLLESTON Nov09 Sep28 Aug07 Jul10   (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.00 20% 4.10    
 
CD-3   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIXIE FURY Sep24 Sep18       (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 119 1.20 32% 2.10    
2  MIDNIGHT DREAMING Sep22 Jul30 Jun26 Jun08   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
3  SHORTLY         (morse l)COURT K 119 6.00 19% 4.20    
SCR  WICKED REVIEW Aug26         (hancock a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
5  M B'S MUNNING         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 8% 11.80    
6  HENDRIX Oct14         (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 ★    
7  UTOPIAN TREASURE         (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 18% 4.50    
8  SMALL SAILOR Oct13 Sep26 Sep06 Aug26   (garcia ge)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 10.00    
 
CD-4   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOLY CROSS Oct04 Sep22 Sep12 Aug30 Aug16 (galindo-to)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00 ★    
2  GRAPNEL Oct05 Aug11 May14 Apr23 Feb12 (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 120 3.00 5% 19.00    
3  WE THANK YOU Oct04 Sep23 Sep01 Aug19 Aug03 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 118 30.00    
SCR  MR. PETERKIN Jul07 Jun23 Mar13 Feb20 Jan28 (norris mik)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 20.00    
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE Jan15         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 74% 0.30    
6  MALIBU TIME Oct12 Sep28 Aug07 Jul03 Jun10 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
7  DROP ANCHOR Oct02 Sep16 Aug23 Jul21 Jun11 (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 120 8.00 ★    
SCR  STEELY DANZA Oct19 Mar13 Feb11 Jan10   (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 ★    
9  BRONZE BEAST Oct02 Sep16 Jun11 May22 Mar25 (rouck l)RIQUELME J 120 12.00    
10  JESUIT Sep28 Feb28 Feb12 Jan27   (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
 
CD-5   11/11/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY BRETT ASHLEY Sep22 Aug23       (heitzman er)HERRFORTH ERICA 109 15.00    
2  WILDCAT GIRL Oct21 Oct05 Jul08     (figgins olli)TROTMAN KEIMAR 119 8.00 ★    
3  DOOIT Oct22 Sep24       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 ★    
4  LUCKSME         (diodoro robe)JORDAN R 119 3.50 46% 1.20    
5  SURE ENOUGH Oct21 Sep02 Aug14     (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
6  MIDNIGHT SOCIETY         (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 14% 6.30    
7  SWEET SLEW Sep23         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.50    
8  QUEEN OF CHILL Sep30         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 16% 5.20    
9  XTRASAUCEWELLDONE Oct21 Jul16       (nihei michell)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
10  RAG TOWN Oct11         (sherman alan)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
 
CD-6   11/11/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVINE HOPE Oct08 Sep23 Aug20 Jul23 Jul03 (taylor brent)CASTANON L 118 8.00    
2  SHIP IT Jan14         (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 4.00 30% 2.30    
3  INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU Oct11 Aug25 Aug11     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00 6% 15.10    
4  LOUELLA STREET Sep30 Aug05 Jul23 Jun26 May26 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
5  BALLYKEEN Sep22 Jul29 May22 Apr02   (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 20% 4.10    
6  JE SUIS RAPIDE Sep22 Sep05 Aug09 Jun25   (radcliffe rober)JOHNSON M 118 10.00 13% 6.90    
7  IPSUM GRATUS Jun24 May26 Apr08 Feb20 Jan28 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 7% 12.70    
8  BEACH KITTEN Oct19 Sep22 Jun24 Jun08 May19 (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
9  SHELL SHOCK Oct21 Oct01 Jul31 Jul03 Apr22 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 5.00    
 
CD-7   11/11/2022 3300ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUNTY FINAL Oct08 Sep06 Aug02 Jul13 Jun25 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 ★    
2  MY MAN FLINTSTONE Oct01 Aug26 Jul15 Jun25 Jun08 (hernandez )CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00    
3  TEMPT FATE May07 Mar05 Feb13     (deville carl)GEROUX FLORENT 120 12.00 6% 15.60    
4  AIR COMBAT Sep30 Aug14 Jul15     (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 31% 2.20    
5  FORE LEFT Oct01 Sep08 Jul23 Jun12 May15 (dun)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 120 5.00    
6  EDGE TO EDGE Sep25 Apr02 Feb20 Jan23   (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.00 10% 8.90    
7  FRANCATELLI Oct28 Feb19       (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00 23% 3.40    
 
CD-8   11/11/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HERE MI SONG Oct19 Sep15 Aug26 Jul24 Jul08 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00 43% 1.30    
SCR  SILVER PROSPECTOR Oct01 Aug06 Jul09 May30 May01 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.00    
3  MR. WIRELESS Oct15 Aug13 Jul09 Jun05   (calhoun william )PARKER L 123 4.00 ★    
4  MYSTIC NIGHT Aug04 Apr15 Feb04     (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50 16% 5.40    
5  FIVE STAR GENERAL Oct20 Sep04 Aug14 Jul24 Jun26 (forster t)LANERIE J 121 5.00 ★    
6  SOUTH BEND Oct19 Sep23 Aug06 Jul09 Jun05 (mott i)GRAHAM J 121 5.00 10% 9.20    
7  CHESS CHIEF Oct01 Sep03 Aug04 Jun25 Mar26 (stewart dall)LOPEZ PASCACIO 121 10.00    
 
CD-9   11/11/2022 5940ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  KING CURLIN         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 15.00    
2  VINTAGE YEAR Sep10 Aug10 Jul14 May30 May05 (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
3  PUSH BUTTON Oct22 Sep10       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00 22% 3.60    
4  NASHOBA'S JOY Oct08 Sep03       (morey william)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 4.00 9% 10.20    
5  LOLAS BEAU Oct22 Sep01 Jul09 Jun22 May13 (guerrero sal)RIQUELME J 121 30.00    
6  HABITUS (GB) Sep12 Aug12 Jul24 May13 Apr29 (shifflett cher)AYALA ISAIAS 124 30.00    
7  QAADER Aug30 Aug25 Aug01 Jul03 Jun17 (trujillo elvis)MARIN SAMUEL 124 12.00    
8  INBOUND Oct22 Sep10 Jul24     (rodriguez ge)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 5.00    
SCR  BLUE DEVIL Sep01 Aug12 Jun05 Apr02   (hiles a)LANERIE J 121 3.50 31% 2.30    
SCR  HE'S A ANGEL Oct29 Oct06 Sep10 Aug21 Jul24 (macias adolfo)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
SCR  CAROOM Oct22         (catalano )LEPAROUX R 121 12.00    
12  GOOD SOLDIER Oct22 Sep05 Aug13 Jul14 May21 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
SCR  MIRACLE ON ICE Oct05 Sep01 Aug16 Jul12 Jun01 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 121 10.00 ★    
SCR  MUCHO MOJO Oct05 Aug12 Jul10 Jun26 Jun03 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00    
15  TEN GAUGE Sep23 Aug21 Jan29 Jan02   (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 17% 4.90    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.