Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 12, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($8K) Purse ($26K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:243 :49 1:143 1:412   1:483   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUSTIN'S QUEST 2 5 4 5 2 2½ 1 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.00 53% 0.90 1.33 W
IMPROBABLE STORY 6 1 12 1 1 1½ 2 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 5.00 6.17 P
MONEY FOR MISCHIEF 4 7 67 65 4 32 3 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 2.29 S
MASON A. P. 7 2 7 7 6 45 4 (hill f)CANUTO THIAGO 121 10.00 21.79  
RYE HUMOR 3 6 55 43 5 612½ 517¾ (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 5.00 6.50  
DR. FORMAN 5 4 22 33 3 5 619 (schlenk k)HUGHES CARLY 121 3.50 17% 4.90 6.28  
WHEREWEGOIN 1 3 33 2 7 716½ 728¼ (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 36.65  
 
CD-2   11/12/2022 4290ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:223 :454 1:102     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KNOCKER DOWN 4 2 11 1nk   14 1 (garcia genaro)JORDAN R 118 6.00 8.15  
STROBE 6 1 21 2nk   24 2 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 0.60 42% 1.40 0.23 P
SURFER DUDE 7 6 7 67   4 39 (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 13.98 S
SPANKSTER 1 5 31 3   36 4 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 9% 10.30 12.82  
TEXAS RED HOT 8 8 8 812   713½ 512¼ (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00 39.58  
MOWINS 3 4 54 710   813½ 613½ (lauer michae)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00 5% 19.00 54.48  
HIGHER STANDARD 5 3 6 54   5 714¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 25% 3.00 10.67  
STEINBECK 2 7 42 4   612½ 819½ (cash l)CANNON DECLAN 120 12.00 42.93  
 
CD-3   11/12/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:133 1:271   1:411   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ALEXA LOU 6 3 3½ 3 6 22 1¼ (stewart dallas)LOPEZ PASCACIO 119 10.00 7.14  
MISS PEABODY 2 8 95 85 2nk 12 2¼ (newton troy)PARKER L 119 4.00 27% 2.80 7.79 P
11  GUNS N' LILIES 9 6 2nk 2nk 1nk 3 37 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 11.90  
HER LADYSHIP 5 2 52 42 41 5 49 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 8.71  
GHOSTLY GIRL 3 5 6 6 5 4 510 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 49% 1.00 2.68  
MO DIVINE 1 7 10 7 74 67 616 (hamilton sarah)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00 73.48  
AISHA R N 7 4 1nk 1nk 3½ 7 724½ (asmussen m)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 17.46  
VOGELSANG 4 1 4 53 87 810½ 828¼ (ewing a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 30.00 58.60  
14  LEXA (FR) 11 9 74 10 1014 920½ 934½ (beckman wh)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 15.00 17.07  
12  UNDOUBTEDLY 10 11 8 98 913 1021½ 1037 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 2.30  
10  INSIDE GIRL 8 10 11 1113¼ 1122 1129½ 1149¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 5% 19.00 11.27  
SCR  BOLT FOR ALLISON               (hartman chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
SCR  GRACEFUL UNION               (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 20.00    
SCR  MADLY DANCING               (ortiz alexander)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
SCR  MEDAGLIA FOREVER               (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
 
CD-4   11/12/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($150K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:222 :461 :584     1:053   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PETIT VERDOT 3 3 43 3   1nk 1nk (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 124 20.00 5% 18.50 2.21 W
11  TOWING 5 4 21 2½   2nk 2nk (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 120 30.00 6.45  
SEVEN SCENTS 4 2 5 43   4 3 (morley thomas)SAEZ LUIS 126 5.00 1.82  
SPYCRAFT 1 5 11 1½   3 4 (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 126 5.00 9% 9.70 1.79  
C C'S KITTEN 2 1 3 56   510½ 518 (meah m)SANJUR SANTO 118 30.00 17.20  
SCR  MY PAL MATTIE               (thomas lee)MORA GERARDO 124 8.00    
SCR  CREATIVE CREDIT               (haehn r)OUZTS W 123 15.00    
SCR  CHASING ARTIE               (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 4.00    
SCR  BOAT'S A ROCKIN               (kulp l)CONNER TYLER 122 5.00 25% 3.00    
SCR  SHELLY ISLAND               (cooney s)ALVELO C 120 30.00    
SCR  BAD BEAT BRIAN               (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 124 2.50 38% 1.70    
 
CD-5   11/12/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:223 :454 1:121 1:253   1:394   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INVALUABLE 9 1 2nk 2nk 12 1 1 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 11% 8.50 3.09 W
MAOILIN 5 6 6 53 54 2 2 (blankenship dona)JURADO EDDIE 124 6.00 12.88 P
TELLER TO SING 2 8 9 9 8 35 3 (brownfield claude)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 6.47  
LONGLEGGEDLAVERNE 4 9 8 8 7 5 4 (richardville t)RAMOS D 120 4.50 10.07  
FOREIGN EXCHANGE 1 3 7 7 65 69 514½ (ares paul)PETERSON FERRIN 120 10.00 29.39  
DESTINY'S DARLING 7 5 31 3 22 46 614½ (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 120 10.00 45.02  
NO MORE MASK 3 2 5 6 9 711 718¾ (shankle joanne)LOPEZ PASCACIO 122 15.00 22.85  
HASHTAG LUCKY 8 7 1nk 1nk 4 912½ 823½ (sanchez-salomon)ALVELO C 124 8.00 8.80  
SHES ALL WOMAN 6 4 42 42 32 812½ 927¾ (joseph saffie )ZAYAS J 124 1.80 59% 0.70 1.11  
 
CD-6   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($8K) Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:241 :48 1:123 1:393   1:464   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIME FOR TROUBLE 6 2 33 3 2nk 1½ 1 (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 8.00 8.04  
BLESS THE KITTEN 1 4 11 11 1nk 2½ 2 (grubbs l)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50 3.09  
MOMENT 2 3 21 21 3 34 3 (lopez elias)GEROUX FLORENT 120 6.00 4.95  
MALIBU STAR 4 1 75 7 5 4 410½ (padilla-preciado)ADORNO ABNER 124 4.50 17% 4.90 4.55  
10  IYWAAN 8 5 6 53 44 5 512¾ (salvaggio v)CONNER TYLER 122 4.00 35% 1.90 4.75  
MOTI 7 8 8 8 812¼ 612½ 613½ (o'callahan ca)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 20.00 14.30  
SOUPER CATCH 5 6 43 6 710¾ 718 741½ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00 16% 5.10 4.92  
PEEKACHO 3 7 5 43 610½ 818½ 845½ (vance r)LANERIE J 122 15.00 8.85  
SCR  BLUE STEEL               (leonard geor)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 6.00 6% 16.20    
SCR  HE TAKES CHARGE               (klopp randy)RAMOS D 120 8.00    
 
CD-7   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($150K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:243 :49 1:144 1:403   1:472   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUT OF SORTS 5 3 21 21 1nk 15 110 (mosco robert)LOPEZ PASCACIO 124 12.00 6.04  
MISTY VEIL 1 7 7 63 6 3 210 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 6.00 1.43  
14  WORLD OF WONDER 8 1 11 11 2nk 25 313 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 25% 3.00 5.41 S
CHEROKEE SONG 2 6 5 5 5 47 413¾ (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 122 50.00 43.18  
GOOD FIGHT 3 5 31 3 4 57 517 (hiles a)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 12.25  
BYE BYE BERTIE 6 4 4 42 3 610 623¾ (powell leon)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00 4.12  
10  CANDY RAID 7 8 8 87 8 814¼ 725¼ (desormeaux keit)LANERIE J 124 12.00 5.83  
JUDY'S WAY 4 2 6 74 7 714 830 (silva h)BEJARANO R 120 50.00 14.43  
SCR  KIMBERLEY DREAM               (winston fre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 30.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT BELLA               (joseph saffie )ZAYAS J 122 12.00    
SCR  PEACE WITH HONOR               (mcmahon hugh)CORRALES GERARDO 124 15.00    
SCR  STARSHIP MALLOMAR               (abrams ronal)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
SCR  SUNNY ONE               (murphy conor)GRAHAM J 122 2.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  WICKED GROOVE               (atras rob)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 4.00 6% 16.20    
 
CD-8   11/12/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($8K) Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:213 :453 :581     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HERO TIGER 7 5 52 3½   1nk 1 (kirby t)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00 4.16  
JOYFUL HEART 3 3 4 7   5 2 (bush s)LEBRON VICTOR 124 8.00 9.98  
13  ELLE'SBIGSEACRET 11 2 7 1½   2nk 3 (shifflett cheryl)AYALA ISAIAS 120 20.00 39.79  
BEVERLY PARK 6 6 3½ 2½   31 4 (cash l)BEJARANO R 124 3.50 53% 0.90 2.22  
12  DON'T FORGET 10 4 10 9   8 5 (shorter aar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00 9.14  
THE WOLFMAN 1 7 1½ 5   6 6 (shankle joanne)ALVELO C 126 6.00 3.18  
NIMBLE BEAST 5 1 2½ 4   7 7 (soto- martine)SALGADO ANTHONY 124 20.00 23.36  
HONORARY DEGREE 4 9 8 6   43 8 (sherman justin)MUSARRO JOE 120 15.00 36.09  
THIRSTY BETRAYAL 8 10 9 10   9 910¾ (shirer a)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 10.00 8.13  
11  CRAZY LEGS HIRSCH 9 11 1115¾ 1116¼   1112¼ 1012¾ (davidson ni)LANERIE J 122 20.00 19.01  
GAME BOY BENNY 2 8 6 8   10 1113¾ (winebaugh)DE CRUZ 124 20.00 33.89  
SCR  POWERFULLY BUILT               (abrams ronal)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  SILVER MOON ROAD               (klopp randy)BERMUDEZ E 120 4.00    
 
CD-9   11/12/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($16K) Purse ($125K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:112     1:251   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  THE QUEENS JULES 10 2 2nk 11   12 1hd (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00 8.57  
DIVINE LEADER 2 3 31 21   22 2hd (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 11% 7.80 6.14 P
FAMILY MAN 6 6 7 5   4 3 (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 13% 6.70 5.83 S
10  ALEXANDROS 9 7 5 3   35 4 (duncan tris)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00 22.25  
FIRST GLIMPSE 3 4 10 10   710 5 (silva h)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 11.77  
LT. JUNIOR GRADE 8 5 42 6   5 611½ (van thomas)LANERIE J 124 6.00 4.46  
SO DIALED IN 7 10 8 7   610 714 (skerrett jeffr)GONZALEZ EDWIN 124 15.00 5% 19.00 31.73  
CAJUN BROTHER 4 1 1nk 43   815 824 (hess b)HERNANDEZ J 124 12.00 21.54  
RAGTIME BLUES 1 9 6 85   923 935¾ (breen j)LOPEZ PASCACIO 122 4.00 7.37  
NO BURN 5 8 9 96   1023½ 1038¼ (barrera s)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 44% 1.30 2.09  
SCR  POWELL               (sherman jus)SHERMAN ALEXANDRA 110 50.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SOARING BIRD               (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 122 20.00    
 
CD-10   11/12/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($35K) Purse ($175K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:232 :48 1:131 1:392   1:531   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KEYSTONE FIELD 4 4 47 45 3 13 1½ (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 124 10.00 6.89  
INTREPID HEART 5 6 59 57 4 23 2½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 71% 0.40 2.36 P
BENEVENGO 1 5 12 11 1½ 34 3 (cruz jesus)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50 3.26 S
TIZ RYE TIME 7 8 814 811 8 68 410 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 5.20  
DIGITAL 6 2 611 68 54 57 516½ (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 15.00 10.33  
DECISION MAKER 8 9 916 911½ 9 812 616¾ (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00 6.30  
FROSTED GRACE 2 1 22 21 2½ 4 716¾ (diodoro robert)LANDEROS CHRIS 126 20.00 16.49  
TWELVE VOLT MAN 9 7 711 78 6 711½ 817½ (joseph saffie )GONZALEZ EDWIN 124 8.00 13.98  
CALIBRATOR 3 3 3 3 75 920 944½ (joseph saffie )ZAYAS J 120 15.00 5% 19.00 21.74  
SCR  OURNATIONONPARADE               (ness jamie)LOPEZ PASCACIO 126 4.50    
 
CD-11   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($150K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:05
See original race card.
:241 :482 1:134 1:393   1:462   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
16  PALACE COUP 10 1 2nk 2nk 1½ 12 12 (sharp joe)LOPEZ PASCACIO 122 2.50 6% 15.80 1.07 W
BIG AGENDA 7 9 811¼ 8 42 22 22 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 6.42 P
BEAR OAK 5 4 3 3 2½ 3 310¾ (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00 10.24  
UNDERDRESSED 4 5 54 42 31 46 411¼ (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00 19.98  
10  CAROM 8 3 42 54 6 512 518¼ (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00 25.44  
ROGUE ELEMENT 2 6 912¼ 913¼ 913½ 614½ 618¼ (hiles a)LANERIE J 122 20.00 38.76  
RED FLAG ALERT 1 2 1nk 1nk 5 715 724½ (winebaugh)DE CRUZ 122 20.00 11.75  
SAMUI SUNSET 6 7 7 6 7 817 825¼ (sanchez-salomon)ALVELO C 122 15.00 53.64  
15  SHADY MCGEE (IRE) 9 8 6 7 810½ 919½ 934¼ (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00 16.69  
ONENIGHTSTANDARDS 3 10 1017¼ 1020¼ 1028½ 1036½ 1061 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 3.12  
SCR  DRIFTWOOD               (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 124 8.00 5% 18.90    
SCR  FREEDOM MATTERS               (joseph saffie )ZAYAS J 122 3.00 11% 8.30    
SCR  MAJOR WAGER               (meah m)SANJUR SANTO 122 20.00    
SCR  MARKITOFF               (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
SCR  MAX K. O.               (joseph saffie )GONZALEZ EDWIN 122 3.00 56% 0.80    
SCR  ON A SPREE               (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.