Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 12, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($8K) Purse ($26K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHEREWEGOIN Oct25 Sep09 Jul13 Jun22 Jun08 (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 ★    
2  JUSTIN'S QUEST Oct02 Aug30 Aug09 Jun25 Apr29 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.00 53% 0.90    
3  RYE HUMOR Sep21 Aug28 Jun23 Jun10 Mar17 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 5.00    
4  MONEY FOR MISCHIEF Oct15 Sep21 Aug05 Jun30 May27 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 ★    
5  DR. FORMAN Oct14 Oct07 Sep13 Aug30 May15 (schlenk k)HUGHES CARLY 121 3.50 17% 4.90    
6  IMPROBABLE STORY Sep30 Sep21 Aug11 Jul22 Jun21 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 5.00 ★    
7  MASON A. P. Oct27 Oct05 Sep08 Aug05 Jul22 (hill f)CANUTO THIAGO 121 10.00    
 
CD-2   11/12/2022 4290ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPANKSTER Oct16 Sep25 Aug14 Jul02 Jun12 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 9% 10.30    
2  STEINBECK Oct29 Oct20 Oct08 Sep22 Aug20 (cash l)CANNON DECLAN 120 12.00    
3  MOWINS Oct05 Sep13 Aug24 Aug03 Jul09 (lauer mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  KNOCKER DOWN Oct28 Oct14 Sep09 Aug14 Jul29 (garcia genar)JORDAN R 118 6.00    
5  HIGHER STANDARD Sep25 Sep03 Aug10 Jun26 Apr02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 25% 3.00    
6  STROBE Oct14 May07       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 0.60 42% 1.40    
7  SURFER DUDE Oct14 Jul31 Jun03 May07 Apr08 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 ★    
8  TEXAS RED HOT Sep21 Jul02 Feb26     (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
 
CD-3   11/12/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO DIVINE Oct16         (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
SCR  BOLT FOR ALLISON Oct14 Sep17 Jul30     (hartman ch)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
3  MISS PEABODY Oct16 Sep01       (newton troy)PARKER L 119 4.00 27% 2.80    
4  GHOSTLY GIRL Oct16 Sep23       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 49% 1.00    
5  VOGELSANG Oct16         (ewing michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 30.00    
6  HER LADYSHIP Oct12         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
7  ALEXA LOU Oct08         (stewart dall)LOPEZ PASCACIO 119 10.00 ★    
8  AISHA R N         (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
SCR  MADLY DANCING         (ortiz alexand)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 ★    
10  INSIDE GIRL         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
11  GUNS N' LILIES Oct12 Aug14 Jul22     (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
12  UNDOUBTEDLY         (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
SCR  GRACEFUL UNION Sep18         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 20.00    
14  LEXA (FR)         (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 15.00    
SCR  MEDAGLIA FOREVER         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
 
CD-4   11/12/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($150K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPYCRAFT Sep24 Aug05 Jun22 May24 Apr23 (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 126 5.00 9% 9.70    
SCR  BAD BEAT BRIAN Oct08 Sep13 Aug07 Jul23 May30 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 2.50 38% 1.70    
SCR  MY PAL MATTIE Oct14 Sep21 Aug05 Jun17 Jun06 (thomas lee)MORA GERARDO 124 8.00    
SCR  CREATIVE CREDIT Oct16 Sep24 Sep10 Aug07 Jul13 (haehn r)OUZTS W 123 15.00    
5  C C'S KITTEN Sep28 Sep12 Aug30 Aug09 Jul04 (meah m)SANJUR SANTO 118 30.00    
6  PETIT VERDOT Oct13 Sep19 Aug31 Aug08 Jul20 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 124 20.00 5% 18.50    
SCR  BOAT'S A ROCKIN Oct09 Sep24 Aug25 Aug13 Jul22 (kulp l)CONNER TYLER 122 5.00 25% 3.00    
SCR  SHELLY ISLAND Sep25 Aug15 Jul20 May29   (cooney susan )ALVELO C 120 30.00    
9  SEVEN SCENTS Oct27 Oct01 Aug31 Aug07 Jun22 (morley thomas)SAEZ LUIS 126 5.00    
SCR  CHASING ARTIE Sep10 Jul03 Jun11 May06 Apr01 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 4.00 ★    
11  TOWING Oct19         (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 120 30.00    
 
CD-5   11/12/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOREIGN EXCHANGE Oct14 Sep28 Jul11 Jun25 May23 (ares paul)PETERSON FERRIN 120 10.00    
2  TELLER TO SING Oct26 Oct09 Aug22 Jul27 Jul05 (brownfield claud)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
3  NO MORE MASK Oct21 Sep25 Sep10 Aug19 Jul31 (shankle joan)LOPEZ PASCACIO 122 15.00    
4  LONGLEGGEDLAVERNE Nov01 Oct05 Sep07 Aug10 Jul14 (richardville)RAMOS D 120 4.50    
5  MAOILIN Oct21 Sep27 Aug24 Aug06 Jul19 (blankenship do)JURADO EDDIE 124 6.00 ★    
6  SHES ALL WOMAN Oct09 Aug12 Jul15 May19 Mar31 (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 124 1.80 59% 0.70    
7  DESTINY'S DARLING Nov02 Oct22 Oct12 Sep12 Sep02 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 120 10.00 ★    
8  HASHTAG LUCKY Oct20 Sep17 Sep06 Aug23 Jul01 (sanchez-salom)ALVELO C 124 8.00 ★    
9  INVALUABLE Oct14 Sep01 Jul15 Jun17 May26 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 11% 8.50    
 
CD-6   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($8K) Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLESS THE KITTEN Oct13 Sep02 Aug17 Aug05 Jul06 (grubbs l)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50    
2  MOMENT Oct28 Sep26 Sep13 Aug31 Aug25 (lopez elias)GEROUX FLORENT 120 6.00    
SCR  BLUE STEEL         (leonard ge)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 6.00 6% 16.20    
4  PEEKACHO Oct21 Sep30 Aug20 Jul15 Jun30 (vance r)LANERIE J 122 15.00    
5  MALIBU STAR Sep24 Jul25 Jul12 Jun25 Jun14 (padilla-precia)ADORNO ABNER 124 4.50 17% 4.90    
SCR  HE TAKES CHARGE Oct27 Sep26 Aug31 Aug02 Jul13 (klopp randy)RAMOS D 120 8.00    
7  SOUPER CATCH Oct01 Aug19 Jul29 Jun30 Jun08 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00 16% 5.10    
8  TIME FOR TROUBLE Oct27 Sep28 Sep05 Jul06   (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 8.00 ★    
9  MOTI Oct25 Oct06 Sep14 Aug19 Jul29 (o'callahan )SALGADO ANTHONY 122 20.00    
10  IYWAAN Oct14 Sep01 Aug19 Apr07 Mar11 (salvaggio mark)CONNER TYLER 122 4.00 35% 1.90    
 
CD-7   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($150K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISTY VEIL Sep29 Aug19 Jul09 Jun12 May06 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 6.00    
2  CHEROKEE SONG Oct13 Sep13 Aug18 Aug06 Jun08 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 122 50.00    
3  GOOD FIGHT Jan15         (hiles jeff)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
SCR  SUNNY ONE Oct21 Sep10 Aug16 May19 Apr24 (murphy conor)GRAHAM J 122 2.00 45% 1.20    
5  JUDY'S WAY Oct09 Sep25 Aug10 Jul27 Jul07 (silva h)BEJARANO R 120 50.00    
SCR  PEACE WITH HONOR Oct20 Aug19 Aug05 Jun02   (mcmahon hu)CORRALES GERARDO 124 15.00    
SCR  STARSHIP MALLOMAR Oct20 Sep05 Aug06 Jun24 Jun02 (abrams ron)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
8  OUT OF SORTS Oct04 Jul30 Jul18 Jun14 May21 (mosco robert)LOPEZ PASCACIO 124 12.00 ★    
9  BYE BYE BERTIE Oct29 Sep17 Sep05 Jul23 Jun18 (powell le)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00 ★    
10  CANDY RAID Jul09 Jun04 May06 Apr02 Feb19 (desormeaux ke)LANERIE J 124 12.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT BELLA Aug12 Jul30 Jun02 May21 Apr23 (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 122 12.00    
SCR  WICKED GROOVE Oct20 Sep22 Aug27 Jul30 Jun14 (atras rob)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 4.00 6% 16.20    
SCR  KIMBERLEY DREAM Oct31 Oct09 Sep28 Sep12 Aug22 (winston f)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 30.00    
14  WORLD OF WONDER Sep29 Aug23 Jul24 Jun24 Jun09 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 25% 3.00    
 
CD-8   11/12/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($8K) Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SILVER MOON ROAD Nov01 Oct11 Sep01 Aug09 Jul19 (klopp ran)BERMUDEZ E 120 4.00 ★    
2  THE WOLFMAN Oct22 Oct02 Sep10 Aug26 Aug05 (shankle joann)ALVELO C 126 6.00 ★    
3  GAME BOY BENNY Oct23 Oct01 Aug28 Jul06 Apr27 (winebau)DE CRUZ 124 20.00    
4  JOYFUL HEART Oct13 Sep13 Aug12 Jul15 Jun28 (bush s)LEBRON VICTOR 124 8.00    
5  HONORARY DEGREE Oct13 Sep23 Sep15 Aug12 Jul22 (sherman justin)MUSARRO JOE 120 15.00    
6  NIMBLE BEAST Oct20 Oct01 Aug24 Jul27 Jul05 (soto- marti)SALGADO ANTHONY 124 20.00    
7  BEVERLY PARK Nov03 Oct15 Sep21 Aug26 Aug17 (cash l)BEJARANO R 124 3.50 53% 0.90    
8  HERO TIGER Oct17 Oct05 Sep04 Jul31 Jul17 (kirby t)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
9  THIRSTY BETRAYAL Oct13 Sep15 Jul31 Jul08 Jun18 (shirer a)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 10.00 ★    
SCR  POWERFULLY BUILT Sep28 Sep05 Aug19 Jul31 Jul10 (abrams ron)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.00 23% 3.40    
11  CRAZY LEGS HIRSCH Oct12 Sep29 Sep08 Apr09 Mar19 (davidson sarah )LANERIE J 122 20.00    
12  DON'T FORGET Oct15 Sep21 Aug26 Jul24 Jun22 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00    
13  ELLE'SBIGSEACRET Oct22 Sep30 Sep14 Aug22 Aug02 (shifflett cher)AYALA ISAIAS 120 20.00    
 
CD-9   11/12/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($16K) Purse ($125K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAGTIME BLUES Oct21 Sep01 Aug05 May15 Apr28 (breen kelly )LOPEZ PASCACIO 122 4.00    
2  DIVINE LEADER Oct15 Jun22 May29 May15 May05 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 11% 7.80    
3  FIRST GLIMPSE Oct13 Sep07 Aug16 Aug03 Jul09 (silva h)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
4  CAJUN BROTHER Oct13 Sep25 Aug28 Jan15   (hess b)HERNANDEZ J 124 12.00    
5  NO BURN Oct02 Sep03 Jul21 Jun16 May29 (barrera s)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 44% 1.30    
6  FAMILY MAN Oct02 Jul17 Jun29 May15 Apr14 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 13% 6.70    
SCR  POWELL Sep27 Sep02 Aug05 Jul19 Jul01 (sherman j)SHERMAN ALEXANDRA 110 50.00 5% 19.00    
8  SO DIALED IN Oct10 Sep27 Sep05 Aug06 Jul12 (skerrett jef)GONZALEZ EDWIN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  LT. JUNIOR GRADE Oct15 Sep22 Sep01 Jul20 Jun30 (van thomas)LANERIE J 124 6.00    
10  ALEXANDROS Oct15 Sep21 Jan07     (duncan tr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
SCR  SOARING BIRD Aug06 Jul16 Jun26 May12 Apr16 (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 122 20.00    
12  THE QUEENS JULES Oct15 Sep21 Aug29 Aug09 Jul19 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
 
CD-10   11/12/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($35K) Purse ($175K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BENEVENGO Sep24 Jul23 Jun24 May14 Mar26 (cruz jesus)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50 ★    
2  FROSTED GRACE Oct15 Sep25 Aug02 Jun18 May25 (diodoro robe)LANDEROS CHRIS 126 20.00    
3  CALIBRATOR Sep24 Jul16 Jun18     (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  KEYSTONE FIELD Oct21 Sep10 Jul04 Jun17 May07 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 124 10.00    
5  INTREPID HEART Sep28 Aug13 Jun23 Apr30 Mar24 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 71% 0.40    
6  DIGITAL Sep30 Sep16 Aug13 Jun22 May06 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 15.00    
7  TIZ RYE TIME Oct22 Oct01 Aug01 Jul02 Apr30 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
8  DECISION MAKER Oct23 Sep30 Sep10 Jul01 Jun05 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00    
9  TWELVE VOLT MAN Aug28 Apr02 Jan22     (joseph saffi)GONZALEZ EDWIN 124 8.00 ★    
SCR  OURNATIONONPARADE Oct22 Sep28 Aug02 Jun22 May15 (ness jamie)LOPEZ PASCACIO 126 4.50 ★    
 
CD-11   11/12/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($25K) Purse ($150K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED FLAG ALERT Oct19 Sep12 Aug23 Aug03 Jul14 (winebau)DE CRUZ 122 20.00    
2  ROGUE ELEMENT Sep29 Sep10 Jul17 Jul02 Jun09 (hiles a)LANERIE J 122 20.00    
SCR  DRIFTWOOD Oct04 Sep13 Aug23 Aug06 Jul14 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 124 8.00 5% 18.90    
4  ONENIGHTSTANDARDS Oct09 Sep08 Jan16     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50    
5  UNDERDRESSED Sep29 Sep01 Aug22 Jul14 Jun20 (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00    
6  BEAR OAK Oct27 Oct02 Sep08 Aug16 Jul06 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00    
7  SAMUI SUNSET Oct22 Oct01 Sep25 Sep07 Aug29 (sanchez-salom)ALVELO C 122 15.00    
SCR  MAJOR WAGER Oct19 Sep08 Aug27 Aug06 Jul13 (meah m)SANJUR SANTO 122 20.00    
9  BIG AGENDA Oct23 Sep18 Jul30 Jun25 Apr30 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 ★    
10  CAROM Oct15 Mar17 Feb10 Jan02   (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00    
SCR  FREEDOM MATTERS Sep14 Sep01 Jul20 Jun12 Apr22 (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 122 3.00 11% 8.30    
SCR  MARKITOFF Sep28 Aug19 Jul15 May16 May04 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
SCR  ON A SPREE Sep25 Aug26 Jul17 May21 May01 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
SCR  MAX K. O. Sep01 Jul18 Jun12 May05 Mar27 (joseph saffi)GONZALEZ EDWIN 122 3.00 56% 0.80    
15  SHADY MCGEE (IRE) Oct23 Sep18 Aug20 Jul30 May21 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00    
16  PALACE COUP Sep29 Sep01 Jul21 Jun18 Mar19 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 6% 15.80    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.