Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 16, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:232 :462 1:112 1:243   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHAT A COUNTRY 2 1 4 43 32 1½ 1 (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 121 2.00 29% 2.40 1.41 W
MOTAGALLY 5 2 2nk 11 1 2½ 2 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.00 19% 4.30 3.85 P
CELERITY 1 4 67 6 6 45 3 (cundiff waylon)CANNON DECLAN 111 5.00 8.37  
MAKE NOISE 4 6 3½ 32 2 33 45 (van tho)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 2.50 15% 5.70 1.62  
SUBDUED 6 3 1nk 21 45 5 515½ (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 121 10.00 11% 7.90 10.99  
BOLD ADVENTURE 3 5 54 56 56 69 615½ (peterson annette)AYALA ISAIAS 121 15.00 46.76  
SCR  KING CAIRO               (alvarado diane)LEON SONNY 121 6.00    
 
CD-2   11/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:214 :453 :574     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CATCHUSIFYOUCAN 4 2 1½ 1   13 1 (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 1.66  
ZMUDA 2 1 3 43   4 2 (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.50 20% 4.00 4.24 P
WHY BEHAVE 5 4 42 2   33 3 (calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 23% 3.30 2.43 S
FOREVER HOME 7 6 7 32   23 4 (shifflett cheryl)AYALA ISAIAS 120 3.50 3.23  
SUPORB 6 5 2½ 5   5 513¼ (edwards william)CANUTO THIAGO 118 20.00 56.68  
SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI 3 3 64 78   6 614½ (mckeever andr)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 6.00 13.75  
LUCKY LAUREN 1 7 54 68   711¾ 726½ (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 120 20.00 7% 12.70 28.85  
SCR  DANCE ON OVER               (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00 15% 5.70    
 
CD-3   11/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:233 :464 1:104     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUMMER SPLASH 5 2 21 2nk   13 1 (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.00 11% 8.40 1.30 W
COST BASIS 1 4 3 31   34 2 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 19% 4.40 1.95 P
BELFAST BOY 4 3 43 5   44 3 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 120 10.00 7.60  
THAT KHENNY 2 1 11 1nk   23 4 (becker scot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 21% 3.80 3.27  
BOLDISH 3 5 54 4   5 510¾ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 10.08  
SCR  AIN'T WASTING TIME               (alvarado diane)LEON SONNY 120 4.00    
SCR  EMERALD EXPRESS               (cano mu)CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.50 18% 4.70    
 
CD-4   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:23 :46 1:104 1:234   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BIG BAD DIVA 5 7 43 42 4 2 1 (simms jr)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 20% 4.00 2.97 W
GIANNA'S GIFT 4 1 1nk 1½ 12 1 2 (diodoro ro)SANTANA JR 121 5.00 2.54 P
TILTINGATWINDMILLS 2 6 7 7 6 6 3 (gerteisen adam)BEJARANO R 121 8.00 46% 1.20 9.79 S
GOOD PENNY 7 4 5 6 5 3 4 (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 121 3.50 4.19  
XTREMA 3 5 6 5 7 7 5 (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 121 6.00 9.48  
WATERS OF MEROM 6 3 3½ 32 32 4 65 (vasquez german )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 14.58  
ENCHANTED NILE 1 2 2nk 2½ 22 5 7 (reed r)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00 3.26  
 
CD-5   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:23 :452 1:101 1:224   1:354   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRITAIN'S KITTEN 7 7 43 4 3.2 12 1 (williamson )LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 4.20  
SLIM MAN 3 3 54 5 4¾ 3 2 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 44% 1.30 2.61 P
IGNITIS 4 1 2nk 1nk 1nk 22 38 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 5.58  
BUTTON BOY 1 5 7 7 7 6 49 (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 3.00 2.19  
AMERICAN ICON 2 4 65 6 6 5 59 (vasquez german )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 29% 2.40 7.97  
ARABIAN PRINCE 5 2 32 3 5 44 6 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00 9.85  
SCHMOOZIN 6 6 1nk 2nk 2nk 7 734½ (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 8.00 12.33  
 
CD-6   11/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:22 :454 :582     1:12   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  GOLDBLOODED 9 1 3 2nk   1 1 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 3.37  
BLAME DAY 7 8 6 45   5 2 (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 7.08  
VALIANT PRAISE 2 5 5 5   33 34 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 119 3.50 35% 1.80 1.99 S
GRAPES FOR ELOISE 5 6 42 3   4 46 (de cruz)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 3.41  
INDIAN IRISH 3 3 11 1nk   2 5 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 7.63  
SINGING EMMA 1 9 8 712½   610½ 613½ (stall alber)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 8.49  
ALL THE ENVY 4 2 21 6   711½ 720¼ (catalano wayne )CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 34.64  
ENGLISH CHARM 8 7 910½ 915¾   814 821 (wilkes r)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 36.51  
STORY CHANNEL 6 4 7 815½   917 931¼ (pinzon maria)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 41.05  
SCR  LADY BARON               (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 42% 1.40    
 
CD-7   11/16/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:223 :451 1:101     1:164   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MUMAYAZ 6 4 44 4   3½ 1nk (peitz c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 6.63  
CEES GET DEGREES 1 2 32 3   1nk 2nk (wong jonathan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 3.00 65% 0.50 2.31 P
MORNING CUP 4 3 2½ 2nk   2nk 33 (stall albert)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 11.15  
PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE 5 6 55 54   5 4 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.50 1.96  
COLD AS HELL 3 1 1½ 1nk   4¾ 55 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 2.77  
SPEND BENJAMINS 2 7 65 6   6 610¾ (gonzalez e)COHEN DAVID 120 8.00 19.09  
B D VALESKI 7 5 710 79   710¾ 719¼ (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 21.08  
 
CD-8   11/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:214 :454 :582     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DAZZLING BLUE 8 3 11 1   12 1 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 24% 3.20 0.74 W
WORK OF FICTION 6 1 21 3   22 2 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 46.23  
MOMENT TO SHINE 2 5 42 5   4 3 (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.50 4.03 S
FLYIN BESSIE 7 8 7 43   3 4 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 49% 1.00 4.12  
DAGMAR 5 2 6 6   6 511¾ (catalano wayne )CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 64.52  
10  CECILE (IRE) 9 6 32 2   54 613 (schultz lin)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00 37.52  
COLLECTED GLORY 3 4 8 88   7 715¼ (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 14.93  
CORNER KICK 1 9 9 7   89 819 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 9.78  
JU JU VIP 4 7 5 9   911½ 921¼ (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 12.00 37.48  
SCR  AUNT MISCHIEF               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
 
CD-9   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:223 :451 1:102 1:231   1:361   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TRAVERSE 3 3 5 5 31 1½ 12 (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 19% 4.30 11.35 W
CUSTOMER DRIVEN 1 4 6 31 4 2½ 22 (arnold georg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 15% 5.70 1.77 P
SUNNY ISLE BEACH 6 6 7 7 5 32 3 (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 121 5.00 8.42 S
BRAGANZA 7 7 31 4 2nk 43 47 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 6% 15.30 3.39  
PISTOL 4 2 2nk 2nk 1nk 53 5 (van thomas)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 9.99  
CASA DE GOAT 2 1 1nk 1nk 6 6 615½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.80 31% 2.30 3.34  
ROMANCE NOVEL 5 5 4 6 7 713½ 727½ (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 7.64  
 
CD-10   11/16/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:241 :49 1:144 1:401   1:464   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RECKER POINT 9 6 64 6 4 12 1 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 21% 3.80 2.48 W
WINTERS LION 6 5 4 32 2½ 22 2 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 31% 2.20 3.00 P
ACCIDENT 8 11 107 11 73 3 3 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 7.89  
HUNTER'S DRIVE 7 7 7 7 62 65 4 (desormeaux j)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 5% 18.30 6.00  
EIGHT STRAIGHT 4 1 21 21 1½ 4 5 (mcpeek kenne)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 11.78  
10  PERFECT UPSTART 10 9 9 9 11 7 611¾ (medina robe)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 13.45  
DR. HYDE 5 8 8 8 5 55 715 (stall m)ROCCO S 119 12.00 30.69  
RISKY CHOICE 1 2 32 5 8 810 815¾ (spicer james )PETERSON FERRIN 119 30.00 58.63  
11  KLIMTOMANIAC 11 10 11 10 10 912½ 918 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 26.46  
MOTOWN COLLECTION 3 3 5 4 9 1017½ 1028½ (rone mike)FRANKLIN MALCOM 119 10.00 19% 4.20 10.77  
RANSEUR 2 4 11 11 31 1124½ 1145¾ (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 8.67  
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.