Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 16, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CELERITY Oct09 Sep28 Sep10 Aug06 Jul16 (cundiff way)HERRFORTH ERICA 111 5.00    
2  WHAT A COUNTRY Sep25 Jul17 Jun30 Jun10 May06 (walden willia)GILLIGAN JACK 121 2.00 29% 2.40    
3  BOLD ADVENTURE Oct27 Oct10 Aug28     (peterson annet)AYALA ISAIAS 121 15.00    
4  MAKE NOISE Oct07 May28 Apr16 Mar17 Feb19 (van t)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 2.50 15% 5.70    
5  MOTAGALLY Oct13         (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.00 19% 4.30    
SCR  KING CAIRO Oct22 Jul02 Jun10 May07 Apr24 (alvarado diane)LEON SONNY 121 6.00 ★    
7  SUBDUED Oct24 Oct12 Sep28 Sep14 Sep07 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 121 10.00 11% 7.90    
 
CD-2   11/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY LAUREN Oct06 Aug18 Jul22 Jun10 May20 (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 120 20.00 7% 12.70    
2  ZMUDA Oct20 Sep16 Jul09 Jun24 May30 (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.50 20% 4.00    
3  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Oct15 Sep15 Aug25 Jun23 May03 (mckeever an)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 6.00    
SCR  DANCE ON OVER Oct25 Oct06 Sep22 Sep09 Aug25 (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00 15% 5.70    
5  CATCHUSIFYOUCAN Oct24 Oct04 Sep24 Aug29 Aug06 (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
6  WHY BEHAVE Oct14 Sep15 Aug26 May01 Mar19 (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 23% 3.30    
7  SUPORB Oct11 Sep29 Sep22 Aug31 Aug16 (edwards wil)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00    
8  FOREVER HOME Oct26 Oct15 Sep30 Sep16 Aug29 (shifflett cher)AYALA ISAIAS 120 3.50 ★    
 
CD-3   11/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COST BASIS Oct15 Sep03 Aug14 Apr21 Feb19 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 19% 4.40    
2  THAT KHENNY Sep20 Sep02 Aug16 Jul29 Jul16 (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 21% 3.80    
3  BOLDISH Nov02 Sep25 Aug24 Jan17   (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
SCR  EMERALD EXPRESS Nov02 Oct15 Sep18 Jul24 Jun08 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.50 18% 4.70    
5  BELFAST BOY Oct12 Sep18 Aug20 Jul10 Jun08 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 120 10.00    
SCR  AIN'T WASTING TIME Sep30 Aug27 Jul29 Jun26 Apr13 (alvarado diane)LEON SONNY 120 4.00 ★    
7  SUMMER SPLASH Oct15 Sep17 Aug13     (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 3.00 11% 8.40    
 
CD-4   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENCHANTED NILE Sep28 Jul07 Jun01 May03 Mar26 (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00    
2  TILTINGATWINDMILLS Oct23 Sep07 Aug02 Jun10 May17 (gerteisen adam)BEJARANO R 121 8.00 46% 1.20    
3  XTREMA Oct28 Sep14 Aug14 Jul10 Jun09 (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 121 6.00 ★    
4  GIANNA'S GIFT Oct23 Aug27 Jul07 Jun10 May29 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 121 5.00 ★    
5  BIG BAD DIVA Oct28 Sep21 Jul23 Apr22 Apr07 (simms j)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 20% 4.00    
6  WATERS OF MEROM Nov03 Oct21 Jul17 Jun12 May22 (vasquez germa)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
7  GOOD PENNY Jul07 Jun04 Apr09 Jan29   (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 121 3.50 ★    
 
CD-5   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUTTON BOY Oct08 Sep03 Aug15     (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 3.00 ★    
2  AMERICAN ICON Nov09 Oct14 Sep17 Feb04   (vasquez germa)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 29% 2.40    
3  SLIM MAN Sep29 Jul31 Mar13 Jan29   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 44% 1.30    
4  IGNITIS Oct14 Sep17 Jul29 Jun25 Jun12 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
5  ARABIAN PRINCE Oct05 Sep05 Jun18 May28 May06 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00 ★    
6  SCHMOOZIN Sep22 Jun25 May30 May04 Mar18 (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 8.00    
7  BRITAIN'S KITTEN Oct12 Aug26 Aug05 Jul04 Jun12 (williamso)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 ★    
 
CD-6   11/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SINGING EMMA         (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
2  VALIANT PRAISE Oct22 Sep30 Sep03 Aug13   (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 3.50 35% 1.80    
3  INDIAN IRISH         (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 ★    
4  ALL THE ENVY Sep13 Aug23       (catalano wayn)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 ★    
5  GRAPES FOR ELOISE         (de cruz)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
6  STORY CHANNEL         (pinzon maria)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 20.00    
SCR  LADY BARON Sep10         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 42% 1.40    
8  BLAME DAY         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
9  ENGLISH CHARM         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
10  GOLDBLOODED Oct04 Sep10       (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 ★    
 
CD-7   11/16/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CEES GET DEGREES Oct28 Sep18 Aug25 Aug13 Jul22 (wong jonath)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 3.00 65% 0.50    
2  SPEND BENJAMINS Oct20 Sep24 Aug12 Jul22 Jul04 (gonzalez reina )COHEN DAVID 120 8.00    
3  COLD AS HELL Oct20 Sep24 Aug13 Jul14 Jul04 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 ★    
4  MORNING CUP Oct08 Aug19       (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
5  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE Nov09 Oct20 Sep17 Jun30 May29 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 2.50 ★    
6  MUMAYAZ Oct16 Sep11 Aug12 Jul04 Jun11 (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 ★    
7  B D VALESKI Sep11 Jul16 Jun05 May04 Mar10 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 ★    
 
CD-8   11/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CORNER KICK         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 ★    
2  MOMENT TO SHINE         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.50 ★    
SCR  AUNT MISCHIEF Jul04         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
4  COLLECTED GLORY Aug20 Jul31 Jul01     (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
5  JU JU VIP         (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 12.00    
6  DAGMAR Sep17 Jul31       (catalano wayn)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
7  WORK OF FICTION Oct08 Aug05       (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
8  FLYIN BESSIE Sep06         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 49% 1.00    
9  DAZZLING BLUE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 24% 3.20    
10  CECILE (IRE)         (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00 ★    
 
CD-9   11/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CUSTOMER DRIVEN May06 Apr08 Feb05 Jan09   (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 15% 5.70    
2  CASA DE GOAT May21 Apr23       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.80 31% 2.30    
3  TRAVERSE Jun19 Apr02 Jan09     (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 19% 4.30    
4  PISTOL Oct12 Sep25 Sep08 Jul29 Jun29 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
5  ROMANCE NOVEL Sep23 Aug13 Jul02 Jun18   (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
6  SUNNY ISLE BEACH Nov06 Sep21 Jul01 Jun11 May21 (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 121 5.00 ★    
7  BRAGANZA Oct29 Sep28       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 6% 15.30    
 
CD-10   11/16/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RISKY CHOICE Aug09 Jul15       (spicer jame)PETERSON FERRIN 119 30.00    
2  RANSEUR Oct18 Sep21       (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
3  MOTOWN COLLECTION Aug23         (rone mike)FRANKLIN MALCOM 119 10.00 19% 4.20    
4  EIGHT STRAIGHT Nov03 Sep21       (mcpeek ken)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 ★    
5  DR. HYDE Oct12 Sep27 Sep12 Aug22 Aug02 (stall m)ROCCO S 119 12.00    
6  WINTERS LION Nov03 Sep21       (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 31% 2.20    
7  HUNTER'S DRIVE Oct30 Sep03 Aug19     (desormeaux)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 5% 18.30    
8  ACCIDENT Oct30 Oct09 Sep29 Sep08 Aug26 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
9  RECKER POINT Oct01 Sep16 Aug28     (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 21% 3.80    
10  PERFECT UPSTART Sep21         (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
11  KLIMTOMANIAC Oct22 Sep21       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.