Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 20, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/20/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:233 :47 1:114 1:242   1:372   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COACH JER'S JOY 2 5 3 31 2½ 12 11 (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 32% 2.10 0.86 W
MOHAYLADY 5 1 4 5 3 22 21 (lukas wayn)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 4.00 5.48  
SOUTHERN SKY 6 6 6 6 5 45 3 (royal madelyn)LEZCANO ABEL 118 10.00 14.15  
NANA'S GRAY 3 4 5 4 45 56 4 (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 4.00 19% 4.30 4.20  
NOSTALGIA 4 2 2½ 2nk 1½ 33 514 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 3.37  
AIN'T SHE A PISTOL 1 3 1½ 1nk 6 612½ 623¾ (danner doug)ELLIOTT JANE 118 8.00 7% 12.50 26.65  
SCR  UNDECODED               (combs bentley)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 13% 6.80    
 
CD-2   11/20/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:224 :46       :582   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LADY OCEAN 7 7 1nk 11   2nk 1¼ (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 8.39  
MIDSUMMER SOIREE 8 8 31 21   1nk 2¼ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 2.50 17% 5.00 1.31 P
THREE SPORT COATS 6 6 2nk 3   3 3 (hancock a)LANERIE J 119 12.00 11.57  
ICY STARE 5 1 42 4   4 4 (hancock a)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 12% 7.30 9.83  
SMOOTH LIKE ICE 4 4 5 55   5 5 (hamilton sarah)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 14.22  
TIMELY SECRET 1 2 6 6   6 6 (corrigan jim)ELLIOTT JANE 119 6.00 28.19  
PROUD PERFORMER 3 5 8 7   7 7 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 43% 1.30 2.36  
WILD ROSEY 2 3 7 8   8 814 (calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00 8.53  
 
CD-3   11/20/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:231 :46 1:111     1:242   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAKE THE CHARGE 3 4 2nk 2nk   2½ 1½ (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 120 6.00 5.57  
OVERLY D'ORO 4 1 3 3½   1½ 2½ (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 10.00 13.48 P
BACK BEAT 2 5 4 5   53 3 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 1.98 S
STEELE MONEY 6 3 53 4   4 4 (holsapple hutch)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00 10.77  
I'M WIDE AWAKE 5 2 1nk 1nk   31 55 (courville ricky)LANERIE J 120 3.50 2.23  
SPECIAL OPERATOR 1 6 6 6   63 66 (desormeaux keith)DIAZ RENE 115 6.00 20% 3.90 2.80  
SCR  BIG BEEMSTER               (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 54% 0.90    
 
CD-4   11/20/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:23 :462 1:113     1:182   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PISTOLPACKINPOLLY 6 1 21 2nk   11 11 (martinez matthew)AYALA ISAIAS 122 8.00 12.78  
PEYTON'S COLLEGE 3 7 6 4   3 21 (cook b)BEJARANO R 124 3.00 22% 3.50 1.85 P
LOLLYGAG 8 3 42 3.2   21 32 (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.50 41% 1.40 3.03 S
BIDOFHONEY 1 6 5 6   6 4 (catalano m)MCKEE J 122 5.00 7% 14.30 4.70  
DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE 7 9 7 5   5 5 (taylor brent)COURT K 122 10.00 10.73  
UNDERCOVER LADY 4 4 11 1nk   4 68 (shirer a)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00 6.30  
GIN N SIN 2 2 32 7   79 711½ (roberson dennis)LEBRON VICTOR 122 4.00 7% 14.20 8.02  
LIL RED CLOUD 5 8 9 87   811½ 814½ (forston roy)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 15.00 45.76  
PACIFIC GROVE (GB) 9 5 8 97   914½ 918½ (gonzal)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 20.00 83.66  
 
CD-5   11/20/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:241 :482 1:124 1:372   2:024   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MUSIC STREET 4 41 5 53 3 12 14 (beckman w)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 4.11  
INVENTING 1 2½ 2 2½ 2½ 33 24 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 37% 1.70 0.82 P
HIGH FASHION 3 31 4 4 4 4 3 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 5.97 S
SHE'S KEEN 5 1½ 1 1½ 1½ 22 4 (arnold r)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 4.70  
TAKE CARE 2 5 32 3 52 510 520¼ (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 16% 5.50 5.68  
SCR  PARK ON THE NILE               (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 118 2.50 18% 4.40    
SCR  UNDER ONE SKY               (kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
 
CD-6   11/20/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:102 1:232   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAXED 7 5 1 11 1 12 1 (shirer matt )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 7% 13.00 2.78 W
AMBER CASCADE 3 2 32 3 3 22 2 (devaux che)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 10.06  
11  PSYCHEDELIC 9 7 7 68 714¼ 412 3 (danner kelsey)ROCCO S 119 15.00 23.71  
LIGHTER KNOT 5 1 2 21 2 3 410½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 4.39  
10  INSPECTOR PENNY 8 8 912 810 614¼ 512½ 515¾ (pessin l)LANERIE J 119 15.00 17.85  
LEXINGTON DIAMOND 2 3 54 56 514 613½ 616 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 25.54  
ELECTRIC SENSE 6 6 43 44 411 715½ 721¼ (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 26% 2.80 4.77  
REVENUE TRAIN 1 4 6 78 821¼ 820½ 825¾ (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 15% 5.50 1.89  
SPUNK 4 9 810 911½ 926¼ 928½ 941¼ (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 114 30.00 44.96  
SCR  CERCHI               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  JAYLA               (lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
SCR  KILMOREY               (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 30.00    
 
CD-7   11/20/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:242 :493 1:143 1:264   1:391   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SABALENKA 9 4 11 11 1½ 1 1¾ (beckman d )SANTANA JR 122 3.00 16% 5.40 3.48 W
JET SETTING 1 3 4 32 41 3 2¾ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00 5% 18.10 9.24 P
SAFEEN 4 1 3 42 3½ 2 33 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 27% 2.70 1.67 S
CHA CHA TAP 5 9 9 8 6 5 4 (milosevic m)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00 24.32  
SOUTHLAWN 7 7 21 21 2½ 4 5 (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 10.21  
UP TO SOMETHING 6 8 64 5 53 65 6 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 7.67  
FREYDIS THE RED (FR) 3 5 5 6 75 7 7 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 23% 3.40 3.04  
CHIQUITA MOSCA 8 6 8 7 8 8 811½ (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00 63.28  
MORIARTY 2 2 7 9 919½ 920½ 926½ (bogle fergus)PETERSON FERRIN 118 30.00 92.22  
SCR  PEACOCK LASS               (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.80 9% 9.90    
 
CD-8   11/20/2022 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:222 :452 1:091     1:154   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FIRE ON TIME 8 3 3½ 2nk   1 1 (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00 7% 13.90 9.03 W
HAZY COMMAND 3 9 8 74   4 2 (mejia dela)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 22.00  
ZAINALARAB 6 4 5 4   54 3 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 5% 19.00 4.86 S
10  REPEALING 9 8 6 5   3 4 (stall m)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 12% 7.00 3.35 DH
ALTERED SHOT 7 1 2nk 1nk   2 4 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 11.12 DH
FLATTER ME SILLY 2 12 12 106   7 6 (pessin l)LANERIE J 120 10.00 10.87  
ROOKERY 4 11 9 11   8 7 (catalano wayne )CANNON DECLAN 120 20.00 62.56  
MAGIC QUEST 5 2 1nk 3.2   6 8 (arnold georg)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 5% 19.00 8.18  
12  BOMBDIGGITY 11 7 106 96   9 910 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 118 15.00 23.79  
ANGITUDE 1 5 41 6   10 1010¾ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 47% 1.10 2.98  
11  MISCHIEVOUS DIANE 10 6 7 8   119 1111¼ (camejo m)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 13.71  
14  COMPELLING SMILE 12 10 117 127   1212½ 1215¼ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 30.00 51.87  
SCR  EDGEE ANGEL               (king )FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 120 20.00    
SCR  GUANA CAY               (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 12.00    
 
CD-9   11/20/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:214 :443       :563   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TOP GUN GIRL 4 1 1nk 12   1 1 (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50 61% 0.60 1.13 W
KANT BELIEVE IT 5 2 2nk 22   2 2 (divito james)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 2.21 P
COMEDY ACT 3 4 4 32   3 3 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 8% 11.90 5.24 S
BACKYARD MONEY 1 3 3 44   44 4 (lukas wayn)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 4.00 4.33  
NO DRAMA MOMMA 6 5 53 5   5 5 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 17.29  
ICY RIVER 2 6 6 6   6 613 (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 12.00 30.97  
SCR  ROCK STAR PARKING               (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 8.00    
SCR  VACCINE OF HOPE               (ward wesley )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 5% 17.30    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.