Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 20, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/20/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIN'T SHE A PISTOL Oct13 Sep22 Aug29 Aug08 Jul20 (danner doug)ELLIOTT JANE 118 8.00 7% 12.50    
2  COACH JER'S JOY Sep16         (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 32% 2.10    
3  NANA'S GRAY Oct13 Sep21 Sep05 Jul24 Jun22 (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 4.00 19% 4.30    
4  NOSTALGIA         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 ★    
5  MOHAYLADY Nov03 Oct13 Sep28 Sep18 Jul24 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 4.00    
SCR  UNDECODED Oct26 Oct01 Jul23 Jul08 Jun11 (combs bentley)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 13% 6.80    
7  SOUTHERN SKY Nov09 Oct10 Sep13 Aug30 Aug12 (royal madelyn)LEZCANO ABEL 118 10.00    
 
CD-2   11/20/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIMELY SECRET Aug10 Jul19       (corrigan jim)ELLIOTT JANE 119 6.00    
2  WILD ROSEY Jul17         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00 ★    
3  PROUD PERFORMER         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 43% 1.30    
4  SMOOTH LIKE ICE Nov10 Oct13 Sep05     (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 ★    
5  ICY STARE         (hancock a)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 12% 7.30    
6  THREE SPORT COATS Jul31         (hancock a)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
7  LADY OCEAN Nov10 Oct30 Jul15     (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
8  MIDSUMMER SOIREE Oct30         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 2.50 17% 5.00    
 
CD-3   11/20/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BIG BEEMSTER Nov09 Oct02 Sep24     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 54% 0.90    
2  SPECIAL OPERATOR Jul10         (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 115 6.00 20% 3.90    
3  BACK BEAT Nov02 Sep29 Aug29 Jun25   (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 ★    
4  TAKE THE CHARGE Oct20 Sep07 Aug24     (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 120 6.00 ★    
5  OVERLY D'ORO Oct11 Sep28 Sep07 Aug09 Jul24 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 10.00 ★    
6  I'M WIDE AWAKE Nov02 Sep16 Aug26 Jul16 Jun24 (courville ricky)LANERIE J 120 3.50    
7  STEELE MONEY Oct29 Aug01 Jun22     (holsapple hutc)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00    
 
CD-4   11/20/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIDOFHONEY Oct01         (catalano m)MCKEE J 122 5.00 7% 14.30    
2  GIN N SIN Nov11 Oct17 Sep30 Sep18 Jul03 (roberson denn)LEBRON VICTOR 122 4.00 7% 14.20    
3  PEYTON'S COLLEGE Mar10         (cook b)BEJARANO R 124 3.00 22% 3.50    
4  UNDERCOVER LADY Oct17         (shirer a)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00    
5  LIL RED CLOUD Nov03 Oct11 Sep30 Sep07   (forston roy)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 15.00    
6  PISTOLPACKINPOLLY Jun11         (martinez matth)AYALA ISAIAS 122 8.00    
7  DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE Oct19 Sep16 Aug27     (taylor brent)COURT K 122 10.00    
8  LOLLYGAG Sep26 Sep03 Aug12 Jul23 Jun26 (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.50 41% 1.40    
9  PACIFIC GROVE (GB) Oct29 Oct06 Sep22 Jul22 Feb27 (gonz)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 20.00 ★    
 
CD-5   11/20/2022 6600ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INVENTING Oct15 Sep23 Jul28 Jun11 May06 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 37% 1.70    
2  TAKE CARE Oct23 Sep18 Aug07 Jul10   (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 16% 5.50    
3  HIGH FASHION Oct23 Oct02 Aug20 Jun24 May26 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 ★    
4  MUSIC STREET Oct23 Sep25 Jun23 May27 Apr23 (beckman d)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
5  SHE'S KEEN Oct02 Aug20 Jul28 Jun23 May27 (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50    
SCR  UNDER ONE SKY Oct27 Sep03 Jul23 May29 Apr27 (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00 ★    
SCR  PARK ON THE NILE Oct23 Oct02 Sep13 May21 May06 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 2.50 18% 4.40    
 
CD-6   11/20/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REVENUE TRAIN Sep14 Aug13       (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 15% 5.50    
2  LEXINGTON DIAMOND Nov02         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
3  AMBER CASCADE Oct22         (devaux c)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
SCR  KILMOREY         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 30.00    
5  SPUNK Nov06 Aug14 Jul24     (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 114 30.00    
6  LIGHTER KNOT Nov02 Oct13 Aug26 Aug07 Jul09 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 ★    
7  ELECTRIC SENSE Oct26 Sep14 Aug07     (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 26% 2.80    
SCR  JAYLA Sep05 Aug15 Jun28     (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
9  TAXED Oct20 Sep16       (shirer mat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 7% 13.00    
10  INSPECTOR PENNY Oct22         (pessin l)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
11  PSYCHEDELIC Oct16 Sep13 Aug03     (danner kelsey)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
SCR  CERCHI Sep27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 29% 2.50    
 
CD-7   11/20/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JET SETTING Sep17 Aug06       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 8.00 5% 18.10    
2  MORIARTY Oct21 Sep27 Aug23 Aug14 Jul31 (bogle fergu)PETERSON FERRIN 118 30.00    
3  FREYDIS THE RED (FR) Oct01 Sep04 Jul31     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 23% 3.40    
4  SAFEEN Oct27 Sep13       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 27% 2.70    
5  CHA CHA TAP Oct01 Sep05       (milosevic)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
6  UP TO SOMETHING Oct09 Sep08 Jul09     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
7  SOUTHLAWN Oct28 Sep17 Jul31 Jun03   (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00    
8  CHIQUITA MOSCA Oct30 Sep03 Aug14 Jul31 Jul04 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00    
9  SABALENKA Oct07 Sep13 Aug03     (beckman )SANTANA JR 122 3.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  PEACOCK LASS Oct30 Sep17 Aug07     (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.80 9% 9.90    
 
CD-8   11/20/2022 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANGITUDE Sep02 Jul14 Jun17 May06   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 47% 1.10    
2  FLATTER ME SILLY May19 Apr24 Mar12 Feb12 Jan06 (pessin l)LANERIE J 120 10.00    
3  HAZY COMMAND Oct04 Jul20 Jun26 May21 Apr10 (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
4  ROOKERY Sep24 Aug07 Jul23 Jun23 May21 (catalano wayn)CANNON DECLAN 120 20.00    
5  MAGIC QUEST Oct26 Sep25       (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GUANA CAY Oct31 Oct09 Sep15 Aug21 Jul18 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 12.00    
7  ZAINALARAB Oct26 Aug31 Jul10 Jun10 Apr15 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 5% 19.00    
8  ALTERED SHOT Nov10 Sep25 Jul02 Jun12 May21 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
9  FIRE ON TIME Jun09 Apr24 Jan13     (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00 7% 13.90    
10  REPEALING Aug21 Jul23 Jun18     (stall m)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 12% 7.00    
11  MISCHIEVOUS DIANE Sep02 Jul20 Jun10     (camejo jose )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
12  BOMBDIGGITY Oct26 Jun25 May21 Apr10 Feb18 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 15.00    
SCR  EDGEE ANGEL Nov09 Oct13 Sep21 Aug28 Jul06 (kin)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 120 20.00    
14  COMPELLING SMILE Oct26 Sep15 Aug07 May06   (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 30.00    
 
CD-9   11/20/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BACKYARD MONEY Sep23 Sep05 Aug11 Jul27   (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 4.00 ★    
2  ICY RIVER Nov02 Oct01 Sep07 Aug20 Aug06 (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 12.00    
3  COMEDY ACT Oct01 Jul30 Jun17 May19 Mar20 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 8% 11.90    
4  TOP GUN GIRL Sep14 Aug08       (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50 61% 0.60    
5  KANT BELIEVE IT Oct19 Sep23       (divito james)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  VACCINE OF HOPE May06 Mar31 Jan14     (ward wesle)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 5% 17.30    
SCR  ROCK STAR PARKING Nov02 May07 Apr10 Apr01 Feb12 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 8.00    
8  NO DRAMA MOMMA Feb26         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.