Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 18, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:242 :474 1:122 1:383   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REWIRE 1 3 31½ 21 2nk 2½ 1½ (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 1.40 58% 0.70 0.86 W
5  ABSOLUTE COURAGE 4 2 1nk 11 1nk 1½ 2½ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.60 16% 5.30 1.25 P
3  AWAY FROM HOME 2 1 2nk 31 32 33 34¼ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.00 ★ 4.23 S
4  WORKINFROMHOME 3 4 43½ 43½ 43½ 48½ 418¾ (guerrero sal)MILLER CHASE 124 15.00 ★ 23.55  
SCR  BRIGHT SPARK               (flint bernard)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 3.50 ★    
 
CD-2   11/18/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:234 :471 1:113 1:234   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  NEED SOME MONEY 5 5 43 42 1nk 11½ 13½ (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 3.91  
3  BEST SELLER 2 4 21 2½ 2nk 21½ 23½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 ★ 1.69 P
4  KEY TO SUCCESS 3 6 65½ 53½ 32½ 34½ 37 (holsapple hutc)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 21% 3.80 2.30 S
1  HIGH FASHION LADY 1 1 32½ 32 55 48½ 415 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 4.62  
5  FAIR FOLLY 4 3 54½ 64 69 612 521 (wilkes ian)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 12.00 8% 11.10 31.40  
7  FABULOSITY 6 2 11 1½ 43 511½ 635 (sharp joe)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.00 27% 2.70 6.88  
SCR  JULIA'S CHARDONNAY               (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 113 6.00 16% 5.30    
 
CD-3   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:241 :481 1:123 1:383   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  WAITA MINUTE HAYES 6 5 31½ 3½ 31½ 1nk 11½ (courville ricky)LANERIE J 118 10.00 17% 4.90 17.87 W
1  SIMOVITCH 1 3 1½ 1nk 11 2nk 21½ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 ★ 2.59 P
5  SAQEEL 5 4 55 52¾ 65 32½ 33½ (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 15% 5.60 6.54 S
3  MUGSY MALONE 3 2 2½ 2nk 21 44 48¼ (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 32% 2.10 3.27  
4  NEVER CHANGE 4 6 66 42½ 43½ 54½ 58¼ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.60 1.60  
2  ENDLESS SUNSET 2 1 44 62¾ 53½ 65½ 611¼ (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 116 4.00 ★ 6.65  
 
CD-4   11/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:214 :452 :574     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  FANTAIL (GB) 3 6 2½ 1nk   12½ 16¼ (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 1.60 27% 2.70 2.04 W
9  MONOCACY 9 1 73½ 42¼   34 26¼ (king l)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00 8.69  
2  JOAN'S WAY 2 5 1½ 2nk   22½ 36¼ (silva h)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 31% 2.30 1.87 S
5  MRS. NUSHI 5 9 95½ 53¼   44½ 47 (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 19.00 5.85  
6  ECLIPSED 6 2 63 75¼   65½ 57¾ (fletcher )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 7% 12.90 11.31  
1  SWEET FRAULEIN 1 7 52 63¾   54½ 68 (hernandez javier)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 40.00  
4  FRIEND 4 8 85 96¾   78 710 (hernandez jav)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 50.03  
8  JUMAKAN BOURBON 8 4 42 32   89½ 817¼ (minnock way)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 10.00 10% 9.20 11.57  
7  BROOKLYNN'S DABOMB 7 3 31½ 86¾   912 921 (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 10.00 11.15  
 
CD-5   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:242 :483 1:131 1:38   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALLINONABUDJET 1 1 75 74¼ 52½ 11½ 17½ (lovell mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 ★ 2.02  
2  MEAN MACHINE 2 2 88 86¾ 85¾ 43 27½ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 4.50 ★ 3.16 P
4  KING'S MISCHIEF 4 3 31½ 31½ 3½ 21½ 312¼ (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00 5.04  
3  PATRIOT DRIVE 3 6 53 52½ 62¾ 65 412¼ (radosevich)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 55% 0.80 5.81  
8  EAGLE PASS 8 8 42½ 41½ 2½ 33 513 (vance r)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00 ★ 23.40  
5  MAKABIM 5 7 64 62¾ 75¼ 87½ 614½ (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 121 8.00 25.23  
7  ON A SPREE 7 4 2½ 2½ 1½ 53½ 714¾ (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 5.00 18% 4.40 5.33  
6  JOHN'S ROCK 6 5 1½ 1½ 41½ 76½ 815 (brafford miche)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 9.86  
 
CD-6   11/18/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:232 :47 1:12     1:182   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  ROYAL SPA 7 7 73¼ 43   22½ 1½ (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 18% 4.70 3.28 W
1  A. P. LADY 1 3 11 11½   12½ 2½ (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 ★ 2.08 P
2  NANCY SPAIN 2 6 31 21½   32½ 35¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 4.29  
7  JENNY LIND 6 2 63¼ 75½   45½ 47¼ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 ★ 3.31  
5  TABOR TIME 5 1 41½ 53½   58 512¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★ 5.59  
4  BRYLEE 4 4 21 31½   68¼ 614¼ (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 33.01  
3  LEIPZIG 3 5 53 64   78¼ 714¼ (mott willia)PETERSON FERRIN 119 12.00 17.93  
SCR  KLASSY BRIDGETTE               (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 1.60 59% 0.70    
 
CD-7   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:241 :481 1:123 1:382   1:451   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LET'S DUET 3 4 43 41½ 51¾ 32½ 1nk (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 1.95  
5  COASTAL CHARM 5 3 32 31 3.2 11½ 2nk (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50 ★ 5.56 P
4  MY GOOD FORTUNE 4 6 76½ 76 64¾ 54 31¾ (sims a)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 8% 11.60 10.24 S
6  MEJTHAAM 6 5 65 65 76¼ 64¼ 42 (corrigan jim)LANERIE J 123 2.50 42% 1.40 4.21  
2  PARIS KENTUCKY 2 1 21½ 21 2nk 21½ 52¾ (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 4.00 16% 5.30 3.33  
7  WAYWARDNESS 7 7 54½ 52½ 41¾ 44 64¾ (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 8.00 7% 12.70 7.10  
1  CONDIMENT GIRL 1 2 11½ 11 1nk 75¼ 78¾ (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 10.58  
 
CD-8   11/18/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:224 :461 1:104     1:17   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  POSITANO SUNSET 9 2 32 31   11 11¾ (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 3.00 49% 1.00 0.80 W
8  KID'S LAST LAUGH 8 6 54½ 62¾   31 21¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 12.31  
2  ROMAN GODDESS 2 1 2½ 2nk   21 35 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 ★ 4.99 S
6  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY 6 3 43 42½   42½ 45½ (stall albert )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00 7.07  
3  WISH IT 3 8 76½ 52¾   52¾ 56½ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 ★ 9.47  
1  HUGHES CLUES 1 4 1½ 1nk   63¾ 69½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 ★ 12.54  
4  ORIGAMI GIRL 4 5 65½ 84   76¾ 712¼ (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 15.00 23.86  
7  BROKEN HEARTS BAY 7 9 87 73¾   88¼ 816¾ (arnett jo)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00 29% 2.40 13.43  
5  HIGH END VIXEN 5 7 98 98   915¾ 922½ (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00 67.13  
 
CD-9   11/18/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:24 :492 1:141 1:391   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  BAY STREET MONEY 9 4 52½ 63¼ 72¾ 1nk 11¼ (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 123 8.00 7.30  
10  POINT ME BY 7 6 62¾ 53 62¾ 31 21¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00 12% 7.40 8.47 P
13  BULLSEYE BUN 10 7 42½ 42 41½ 2nk 31½ (green troy)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 31.31  
8  ALEX JOON 5 10 106¾ 106¾ 105¾ 83¼ 41½ (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00 4.66  
9  RISK MANAGER 6 9 73¾ 73¼ 52½ 41½ 52½ (gutierrez fau)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 8.00 9.74  
6  STRAIGHT ANSWER (GB) 3 8 85¼ 84¾ 83¾ 72¼ 63½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 28% 2.60 1.98  
2  BIZZEE CHANNEL 2 2 31½ 32 31½ 51¾ 75 (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 8% 11.80 12.43  
1  CURRENT 1 5 95¾ 95¾ 95¼ 93½ 85¼ (vanden berg )LANDEROS CHRIS 121 4.00 5.77  
11  MONITION 8 3 21 2½ 2½ 61¾ 96 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00 5% 19.00 8.00  
7  SUPER DESIGN 4 1 11 1½ 1½ 107½ 1018¾ (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 55.46  
SCR  BE HERE               (scherer mariann)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
SCR  BIG BLUE LINE               (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.00 26% 2.80    
SCR  CARMICHAEL               (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 5.00    
SCR  MAILMAN MONEY               (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 4.00    
SCR  MILITARIST               (vaccarezza )ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 4.50    
SCR  RUPP N READY               (pitts helen)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
SCR  SUGOI               (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 12.00    
 
CD-10   11/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:21 :45 :58     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  PARENTS PRIDE 3 5 21½ 12   12½ 1½ (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 51% 1.00 0.73 W
8  TALES OF HOME 8 2 66½ 44½   33 2½ (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 ★ 7.17 P
7  WAITING ON WENDY 7 1 33 22   22½ 34¼ (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 9.81  
2  BAINBRIDGE DANCER 2 9 910 79   57 48 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 122 12.00 46.99  
1  CRIMALDI 1 6 56 34½   45 58½ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 122 6.00 ★ 9.19  
6  AMARYLLIS KISS 6 7 88 68½   67 612¼ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 3.50 26% 2.80 4.47  
9  SWEETS MAKER 9 8 78 89¼   89 712¾ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 ★ 23.69  
5  TERRANOVA 5 4 11½ 56   78½ 820 (williamson br)MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00 14.92  
4  SWEET BABY RAY 4 3 44 914¼   918 932¼ (horn jr)CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00 64.69  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.