Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 18, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REWIRE Oct08         (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 1.40 58% 0.70    
SCR  BRIGHT SPARK Oct16 Sep23 Aug05 Jul03 Jun24 (flint bernard)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 3.50 ★    
3  AWAY FROM HOME Oct16 Sep23 Aug13 Mar26   (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.00 ★    
4  WORKINFROMHOME Nov06 Oct06 Sep18 Aug12 Jul27 (guerrero sal)MILLER CHASE 124 15.00 ★    
5  ABSOLUTE COURAGE Sep18 Sep03       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.60 16% 5.30    
 
CD-2   11/18/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGH FASHION LADY Nov03 Oct01 Sep03 Aug03 Jul04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
SCR  JULIA'S CHARDONNAY Nov10 Oct12 Sep23 Sep14 Jun19 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 113 6.00 16% 5.30    
3  BEST SELLER Oct21 Sep22 Aug26 Aug06 Jul04 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 ★    
4  KEY TO SUCCESS Oct16 Sep17 Aug14     (holsapple hutc)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 21% 3.80    
5  FAIR FOLLY Oct29 Sep12 Aug09     (wilkes ian)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 12.00 8% 11.10    
6  NEED SOME MONEY Oct09 Sep17 Aug19 Jul31   (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
7  FABULOSITY Nov06 Oct01 Sep01 Jul31   (sharp joe)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.00 27% 2.70    
 
CD-3   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIMOVITCH Nov02 Sep16 Aug20 Feb19 Jan22 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 ★    
2  ENDLESS SUNSET Oct27 Oct17 Sep17 Sep07 Jul09 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 116 4.00 ★    
3  MUGSY MALONE Nov10 Oct15 Sep18 Aug21 Aug05 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 32% 2.10    
4  NEVER CHANGE Oct27 Sep25 Aug28 Jul16 May20 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.60    
5  SAQEEL Oct05 Sep23 Sep07 Jul17 Jun29 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 15% 5.60    
6  WAITA MINUTE HAYES Sep30 Aug25       (courville ricky)LANERIE J 118 10.00 17% 4.90    
 
CD-4   11/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET FRAULEIN Nov04 Oct15 Oct08 Sep16 Aug26 (hernandez javier)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
2  JOAN'S WAY Oct29 Oct01 Mar19 Feb18 Jan21 (silva h)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 31% 2.30    
3  FANTAIL (GB) Oct27 Sep29 Sep13 Aug14   (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 1.60 27% 2.70    
4  FRIEND Nov08 Oct23 Oct08 Sep24 Sep03 (hernandez jav)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
5  MRS. NUSHI Oct20 Oct08 Sep16 Sep08 Jul22 (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  ECLIPSED Oct20 Sep30 Sep15 Aug23 Jun23 (fletcher )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 7% 12.90    
7  BROOKLYNN'S DABOMB Feb12 Jan09       (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 10.00    
8  JUMAKAN BOURBON Oct08 Sep16 Aug24 Aug03 Jul15 (minnock way)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 10.00 10% 9.20    
9  MONOCACY Nov03 Oct20 Sep29 Sep16 Aug06 (king l)RIQUELME J 118 6.00    
 
CD-5   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALLINONABUDJET May21 Apr27 Mar27 Mar05 Feb05 (lovell mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 ★    
2  MEAN MACHINE Oct01 Aug30 Aug02 Jul18 May19 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 4.50 ★    
3  PATRIOT DRIVE Oct17 Sep29 Sep13 Aug23 Jun29 (radosevich)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 55% 0.80    
4  KING'S MISCHIEF Oct13 Sep25 Aug25 Aug11 Jul20 (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
5  MAKABIM Oct27 Oct02 Sep19 Aug26 Aug14 (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 121 8.00    
6  JOHN'S ROCK Oct13 May09 Apr11 Mar04 Feb17 (brafford miche)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00    
7  ON A SPREE Sep25 Aug26 Jul17 May21 May01 (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 5.00 18% 4.40    
8  EAGLE PASS Oct27 Oct02 Sep15 Jun29 Jun18 (vance r)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00 ★    
 
CD-6   11/18/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  A. P. LADY Oct27         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 ★    
2  NANCY SPAIN         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
3  LEIPZIG         (mott willia)PETERSON FERRIN 119 12.00    
4  BRYLEE         (medina robert)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
5  TABOR TIME Sep23         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  KLASSY BRIDGETTE Nov04 Sep18       (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 1.60 59% 0.70    
7  JENNY LIND         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 ★    
8  ROYAL SPA         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 18% 4.70    
 
CD-7   11/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONDIMENT GIRL Oct21 Sep08 May22 Apr29   (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
2  PARIS KENTUCKY Oct20 Sep08 Aug18 Jul12 Apr22 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 4.00 16% 5.30    
3  LET'S DUET Oct27 Oct13 Sep05 Aug20 Jul29 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
4  MY GOOD FORTUNE Oct26 Aug15 May18 Apr28 Feb16 (sims a)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 8% 11.60    
5  COASTAL CHARM Oct23 Sep16 Jul29 Apr15   (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50 ★    
6  MEJTHAAM Oct07 Sep28 Sep06 Aug10 Jul23 (corrigan jim)LANERIE J 123 2.50 42% 1.40    
7  WAYWARDNESS Oct14 Sep25 Aug29 Aug02 Jul20 (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 8.00 7% 12.70    
 
CD-8   11/18/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HUGHES CLUES         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 ★    
2  ROMAN GODDESS Oct16 Sep25       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 ★    
3  WISH IT         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 ★    
4  ORIGAMI GIRL         (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
5  HIGH END VIXEN         (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
6  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY         (stall albert )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
7  BROKEN HEARTS BAY Oct14         (arnett jo)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00 29% 2.40    
8  KID'S LAST LAUGH         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
9  POSITANO SUNSET Oct16 Sep18       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 3.00 49% 1.00    
 
CD-9   11/18/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CURRENT Oct15 Sep10 Jul16 Jun25 May03 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 4.00    
2  BIZZEE CHANNEL Oct01 Sep10 Aug15 Jul19 Jun25 (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 8% 11.80    
SCR  SUGOI Oct21 Sep29 Feb19     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 121 12.00    
SCR  RUPP N READY Nov13 Oct19 Oct03     (pitts helen)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
SCR  MILITARIST Nov13 Oct09 Aug16 Jun04 May07 (vaccarezza )ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 4.50    
6  STRAIGHT ANSWER (GB)         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 28% 2.60    
7  SUPER DESIGN Oct27 Sep08 Jun02 Apr21 Mar23 (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
8  ALEX JOON Oct21 Sep08 Aug09 Jul11 Mar24 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00    
9  RISK MANAGER Aug21 Aug06 Jul15 May21 Apr23 (gutierrez fau)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 8.00    
10  POINT ME BY Oct09 Sep05 Jun23 May20 Apr27 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00 12% 7.40    
11  MONITION Sep03 May20 Apr27 Mar19   (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
12  BAY STREET MONEY Oct12 Jul30 Jul02 Jun16 May06 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 123 8.00    
13  BULLSEYE BUN Oct21 Oct03 Sep05 Aug21 Jul30 (green troy)BEJARANO R 121 12.00    
SCR  BE HERE Oct23 Oct07 Sep01 Aug14 Jun04 (scherer mariann)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
SCR  CARMICHAEL Oct27 Aug16 Jun19 May21 Feb11 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 5.00    
SCR  BIG BLUE LINE Oct20 Sep24 Aug20 Jul09 Jun09 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.00 26% 2.80    
SCR  MAILMAN MONEY Oct20 Aug06 Jun25     (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 4.00    
 
CD-10   11/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRIMALDI         (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 122 6.00 ★    
2  BAINBRIDGE DANCER         (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 122 12.00    
3  PARENTS PRIDE Oct28 Sep03 Aug14     (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 51% 1.00    
4  SWEET BABY RAY Apr23         (horn jr)CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00    
5  TERRANOVA Jan07         (williamson br)MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00    
6  AMARYLLIS KISS Oct01 Sep14 Aug19 Jul30 Jul02 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 3.50 26% 2.80    
7  WAITING ON WENDY Sep10 Jul22       (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00    
8  TALES OF HOME         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 ★    
9  SWEETS MAKER Apr10 Mar12       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.