Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 27, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/27/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:114     1:253   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  SHELL SHOCK 5 2 52 42   11½ 15¾ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 16% 5.20 2.20 W
8  SASSY SAGEY 6 1 1½ 1nk   21½ 25¾ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 12% 7.20 2.50 P
3  SOCIAL MANDATE 3 5 41 52½   56 312 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 9.66  
4  AFLEET ARLENE 4 3 2½ 2nk   33½ 412 (shorter aaron)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 15% 5.80 1.67  
2  MRS. NUSHI 2 6 3½ 3½   46 515¼ (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 10.67  
1  GATHER IN BALI 1 4 64 67   618½ 640¾ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 10.00 15.40  
SCR  ROMANCE NOVEL               (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 34% 1.90    
SCR  SWEET BEAUTY               (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 10.00 ★    
 
CD-2   11/27/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:242 :49 1:141 1:412   1:481   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  BRITTLE AND YOO 5 2 54 53 42½ 1nk 12¾ (wong jonat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 ★ 1.20  
3  WORLD OF WONDER 2 3 11 11 1½ 2nk 22¾ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 46% 1.20 1.45 P
5  DANCE RHYTHMS 4 4 42 42 2½ 32½ 314 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 9.44  
4  MAGICAL PEAPOD 3 1 21 21 31 46 416½ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 10.00 17% 4.80 7.92  
1  KIMBERLEY DREAM 1 5 31½ 31½ 56 516 531 (winston f)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 15.00 5.91  
SCR  CHARGE ACCOUNT               (gutierre)SANTANA JR 121 2.50 ★    
SCR  STANLEY MARKET               (morse l)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00 9% 9.70    
 
CD-3   11/27/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:59
See original race card.
:232 :464 1:114     1:182   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  REAL NEWS 6 3 3½ 31   2½ 1¼ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 56% 0.80 2.57 W
9  HEMP HEAVEN 8 4 2nk 1nk   1½ 2¼ (wittek karyn)COURT K 120 8.00 11.07  
8  VIOLENT GIGI 7 2 42½ 42½   32 32 (miller kenny)RAMOS D 120 8.00 ★ 6.94 S
1  HONORARY DEGREE 1 8 86¼ 73¾   42½ 43¼ (sherman justin)MUSARRO JOE 120 6.00 6.31  
6  JINGLE 5 7 63¾ 52¾   63½ 53¼ (lauer michael)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 7.77  
5  ROCK N JUNE BUG 4 1 1nk 2nk   53 66¾ (matthews )ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 4.00 15% 5.80 3.29  
2  CALIFORNIA STREET 2 6 75¾ 85¼   87½ 78 (barkley jason)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 8% 11.70 4.62  
3  WITH VERVE 3 5 52¾ 63¼   77 88¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 15.00 ★ 14.92  
SCR  MARKET DEVELOPMENT               (edwards willi)CANUTO THIAGO 120 20.00    
 
CD-4   11/27/2022 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:28
See original race card.
:242 :491 1:141 1:42   1:553   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  HEY BOSS 5 8 66½ 78¾ 66 1½ 13 (werre danny)MCKEE J 118 3.00 2.21  
4  RIGHT OF RUSH 2 5 32 43½ 43 2½ 23 (jazdzewski jo)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00 18.05  
8  FATHER PATRICK 6 7 78½ 810¼ 89½ 73¾ 37 (newton troy)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 20% 3.90 5.12 S
10  JACKS FIRE BALLS 7 3 816½ 53¾ 53½ 52¼ 48 (van thomas)DIAZ RENE 116 10.00 7% 12.90 3.19  
5  MARK THE MOOSE 3 1 2½ 2nk 2nk 3½ 510 (radosevich)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 9% 9.70 5.47  
11  KEEN MIND 8 4 42½ 3½ 3½ 42 611¼ (helmbrech)BETANCOURT RONNEY 118 12.00 5% 19.00 10.87  
6  MONEY PIT 4 6 53½ 67¼ 76½ 86¼ 714¼ (hill f)CANUTO THIAGO 121 15.00 36.71  
2  ASHWINS ORB 1 2 1½ 1nk 1nk 62¼ 817 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 4.51  
SCR  CONSIDER               (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 121 30.00    
SCR  VASILEVSKIY (IRE)               (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 12.00    
SCR  YONO               (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 2.00 37% 1.70    
 
CD-5   11/27/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:58
See original race card.
:222 :451 1:112     1:253   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  SONO GRATO 6 6 79½ 59½   33 1¾ (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 4.00  
2  AZZURRO 2 4 44½ 45   21 2¾ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 4.00 5.16  
9  FILIPPO 7 7 3½ 3½   11 31½ (thornbury jeff)MCKEE J 120 20.00 5% 19.00 12.69 S
6  CHROME'S RIGHT 4 1 57 712   46½ 45 (howard mar)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 44% 1.20 7.51  
7  ONE MORE BABY 5 2 69 610½   710½ 511¾ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 12.00 6.83  
1  BIG BOSS BEN 1 5 2½ 2nk   67 617¾ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 15% 5.70 3.27  
5  GOLDEN LUNA 3 3 1½ 1nk   57 717¾ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 ★ 2.35  
SCR  HOLIDAY HOUSE               (estvanko richard)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
SCR  MR. BOUMA               (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 12% 7.10    
SCR  PRESTONSBIRD               (richardson )MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 50.00    
 
CD-6   11/27/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 3:27
See original race card.
:224 :463 1:121     1:191   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  JOEY FRESHWATER 11 1 42½ 1½   16½ 15 (shirer mat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 46% 1.20 3.94 W
9  NO EASY DAYS 9 4 53 55½   26½ 25 (mccarthy mich)GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00 9.21  
4  INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER 4 11 119½ 1010   812¾ 313¼ (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 24% 3.20 3.49 S
2  HILL OF TARA 2 9 32 44½   37½ 413¾ (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 ★ 4.36  
10  O'CONNER SUNSET 10 5 63 31   47½ 514¼ (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 5% 19.00 5.41  
3  COLOR FIELD 3 10 107 76   712¼ 614¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 12.95  
6  WILDERZAR 6 8 74½ 65½   511½ 716¾ (cash l)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 22.94  
7  BORDER SPIN 7 12 1212½ 1212½   915¼ 817¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 15.00 7.02  
13  FEELING 12 7 85 99   1015¼ 917¾ (delgado gusta)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00 45.35  
1  RECON 1 2 11 2½   612 1027¼ (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 114 20.00 28.41  
8  NORTHERN RUNNER 8 6 96 1112   1124¾ 1131¾ (demeritte l)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 50.00 75.74  
5  VELOCIMO 5 3 21 87   1225¾ 1246½ (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 23.41  
SCR  BOUDIN               (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BRILLIANT COLORS               (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00    
SCR  DREAMFACTOR               (stinson)DE CRUZ 119 30.00    
SCR  FASHION MUNNY               (medina rob)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
 
CD-7   11/27/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 3:57
See original race card.
:223 :454 1:111 1:252   1:401   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  COTTON CANDY ANNIE 7 1 53¾ 43½ 34 32½ 1¾ (hernandez )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00 24.98  
5  MUSTANG LADY 5 7 85¼ 86¼ 77 43 2¾ (newton troy)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 5% 19.00 5.31 P
3  BLUELIGHTSPECIAL 3 4 31 33 45½ 53½ 32¼ (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 5.00 41% 1.50 8.26 S
8  BLACK FOREST 8 8 1nk 2nk 1½ 11½ 44½ (gutierrez faustio)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 23% 3.30 2.76  
1  JUST LIKE MAGIC 1 3 43½ 55 911 810 56¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 ★ 10.36  
9  WILLOW BEND 9 5 74¾ 75¼ 56½ 65½ 69 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00 27.26  
6  EAST SHORE 6 6 95½ 96¾ 67 78 710½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00 21.92  
4  PEACOCK LASS 4 2 2nk 1nk 2½ 21½ 815¾ (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 9% 10.40 2.89  
2  BOSS LADY BAILEY 2 9 64¾ 65¼ 88 911½ 920½ (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00 3.59  
 
CD-8   11/27/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:27
See original race card.
:244 :491 1:133 1:384   1:453   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  FLOKI'S FLIGHT 2 1 11½ 12½ 11½ 1½ 1nk (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 3.00 49% 1.00 2.19 W
5  MAHAAMEL (IRE) 4 2 21½ 22½ 21½ 2½ 2nk (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00 23% 3.40 3.68 P
7  AMERICAN ICON 6 6 32 33½ 33½ 38 39¼ (vasquez germa)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00 22.35 S
8  EXTRAVAGATE 7 8 85½ 77 77¾ 412 49½ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 ★ 2.57  
1  MIDNIGHT RAID 1 4 75½ 88 67½ 714 518½ (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 3.39  
6  GROUP EIGHTEEN 5 5 54 55½ 45½ 613½ 619 (williamso)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 24.66  
4  FREEZE POP 3 3 43 45 55½ 513 723¼ (londono genevi)ROCCO S 118 10.00 12.62  
9  TOUCH CODE 8 7 64½ 66 88¾ 824½ 846 (vance r)CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00 40.86  
SCR  COUSIN LARRY               (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 10.00    
SCR  TWO BIRDS               (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-9   11/27/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:57
See original race card.
:222 :452 1:112     1:252   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  NAPA CANDY 8 9 85¾ 54½   21½ 13 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 22.90  
12  CANCEL THIS 9 8 12 12   11½ 23 (romans dale)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 14.46  
8  SCARLET STRIPE 7 2 33 43½   34½ 33¾ (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 23% 3.30 1.44 S
1  AIN'T BROKE 1 10 65 66   66½ 44 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00 ★ 4.34  
14  FLASHY CHARGE 11 11 75½ 77   56½ 57½ (frazier matt)MACHADO LUAN 120 30.00 46.16  
2  DAME JOVIALE 2 1 43½ 22   77 68¾ (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00 36.74  
3  MERCY WARREN 3 3 22 33   45½ 711 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 9.91  
4  CODE NAME KATE 4 4 119¾ 97½   98½ 811½ (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 122 6.00 ★ 5.16  
7  SCENIC MASTERPIECE 6 7 109¼ 119¼   109½ 911¾ (wong jon)SANTANA JR 118 12.00 13.06  
5  RING ME DARLING 5 6 99¼ 107¾   88 1015 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00 21.18  
13  SHE'S ALL CLASS 10 5 55 87   1111 1117 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 9.83  
SCR  DUPLICITOUS               (hawley wesley)MORALES EDGAR 120 30.00    
SCR  GUNNING               (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 5.00 23% 3.30    
SCR  OLGA ISABEL               (delgado gustavo)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
 
CD-10   11/27/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:27
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:104 1:232   1:364   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  STRAVA 4 1 2½ 1nk 1½ 13 16½ (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 3.19  
12  BIG BLUE LINE 10 6 74 42 2½ 23 26½ (mcgee pau)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00 4.00  
7  TARTUFO 5 4 105½ 83¾ 43 46½ 37½ (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 11% 8.10 10.85 S
8  BRIEFCASE BULLY 6 12 1211½ 1210¼ 107¼ 58½ 48 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00 8.21  
13  NEPOTISM 11 2 31½ 31 31 36½ 511¾ (scherer mari)GEROUX FLORENT 125 6.00 13% 6.40 6.05  
5  RICOCHET 3 10 63½ 73¼ 84¾ 79½ 612½ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 7.03  
11  MAILMAN MONEY 9 8 42 62¼ 63¼ 69 713¼ (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00 6% 16.20 15.06  
10  MOHAAFETH 8 11 84½ 94¾ 96¼ 911¾ 814¾ (trujillo e)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00 36.12  
4  UBER KIRK 2 5 52½ 52¼ 53 89¾ 922 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 121 5.00 21% 3.70 8.55  
15  HAZEL RAH 12 7 1½ 2nk 73¾ 1015¼ 1023¾ (guida a)DE CRUZ 116 30.00 48.39  
9  TEXAS RED HOT 7 3 119½ 118¾ 1111¾ 1118¼ 1123¾ (morse l)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00 39.70  
1  SILK TRADE 1 9 95 106¾ 1212¼ 1223¼ 1237½ (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 8.00 12.15  
SCR  GAGETOWN               (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00    
SCR  JUNGLE WARFARE               (romans dale)BEJARANO R 121 20.00    
SCR  MAJOR GENERAL               (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00 14% 6.20    
 
CD-11   11/27/2022 5610ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3 ALL PT- 5:56
See original race card.
:233 :472 1:124 1:391   1:462   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  TRADEMARK 2 6 21 2½ 11½ 13 14 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00 3.56  
  (by UPSTART out of CREATIVE TRICK by CREATIVE CAUSE)
1  STOLEN BASE 1 1 44 42½ 21½ 23 24 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 123 8.00 6.16  
  (by BODEMEISTER out of RUNNING WILD by INDIAN CHARLIE)
10  RED DANGER 6 2 67½ 65 66 310½ 315¾ (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 6.51  
  (by ORB out of FORGET IT by DISTORTED HUMOR)
7  ACTUATOR 4 3 55½ 53 34½ 415½ 421½ (mccarthy m)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 0.95  
  (by BODEMEISTER out of INDIAN ROCKET (GB) by INDIAN RIDGE (IRE))
8  FIGHTER IN THE WIN 5 5 11 1½ 45 519 529½ (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 16.24  
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of FIGHT WITH PRIDE by PROUD CITIZEN)
4  PLAY ACTION PASS 3 4 32½ 32 55½ 620 634¼ (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 120 5.00 19% 4.30 5.66  
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of LIGHT OF A STAR by MUQTARIB)
SCR  BARBERINI               (delacour )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of FREETHINKER by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  MOUNT RUNDLE               (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
  (by JACK MILTON out of BEAUCOUP by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
SCR  PORTFOLIO COMPANY               (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 23% 3.40    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ITERATION by WILD AGAIN)
SCR  READY TO PURRFORM               (cox brad)SANTANA JR 123 3.50 29% 2.50    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ELEMENTAR by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  RUNNING BEE               (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 ★    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of OUR JOY by EL PRADO (IRE))
 
CD-12   11/27/2022 4950ft DIRT RC1 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:24
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:113     1:313   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
13  DEBATE 11 4 51¼ 41½   12 13½ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 5% 19.00 5.59 W
3  MOUNT CRAIG 2 10 1010¼ 99   56½ 23½ (mott william)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 14% 6.10 5.06 P
5  CANT BE DOIN THAT 4 6 1111¾ 1110½   46½ 33½ (toy)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 30.00 39.88  
10  EV'S SHERMAN 8 5 2½ 2½   22 45½ (villafr)DE CRUZ 122 10.00 7% 14.10 25.18  
11  PATOU ROAD 9 11 62¼ 53   35 57½ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 4.77  
9  MAMZOOJ 7 2 73¼ 75   68 610½ (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 9.35  
4  VICTORY MARCH 3 7 4¾ 1½   78½ 713½ (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.00 42% 1.40 2.36  
1  FLUTE MASTER 1 8 96¼ 1010   814½ 820¾ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 10.00 16.80  
12  MAGILLA 10 9 84¾ 88   920 926½ (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00 27.64  
8  ARROGATES SPIRIT 6 3 1½ 31   1022 1040¾ (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 9% 9.90 6.28  
6  ROMANICHAL 5 1 3½ 63½   1123 1159 (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 122 12.00 25.71  
SCR  NAPA VALLEY (BRZ)               (cash l)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00    
SCR  TRIPLE OPTION               (cook b)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
SCR  UNCLE BERLEY               (asmussen)SANTANA JR 122 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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