The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/5/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 0 $7.18 $0.00 -8.00
    Exacta (1/5/7/8)-(1/5/7/8) 12 $2.00 $24.00 4-8 2 0 $29.22 $0.00 -24.00
    Trifecta (1/5/7/8)-(1/5/7/8)-(1/5/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 4-8-2 3 0 $72.12 $0.00 -12.00
CD-2   Win (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $10.12 $0.00 -6.00
    Exacta (1/4/6)-(1/2/4/6) 9 $2.00 $18.00 2-1 2 0 $28.78 $0.00 -18.00
    Trifecta (1/4/6)-(1/2/4/6)-(1/2/4/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 2-1-3 3 0 $49.17 $0.00 -9.00
    Daily Double (1/5/7/8)-(1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 4-2 2 0 $17.50 $0.00 -12.00
CD-3   Win (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 2 1 1 $4.38 $4.38 0.38
    Exacta (2/5)-(1/2/4/5) 6 $2.00 $12.00 2-4 2 1 $26.34 $26.34 14.34
    Trifecta (2/5)-(1/2/4/5)-(1/2/4/5) 12 $0.50 $6.00 2-4-5 3 1 $15.18 $15.18 9.18
    Daily Double (1/4/6)-(2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 2-2 2 0 $9.65 $0.00 -6.00
    Pick Three (1/5/7/8)-(1/4/6)-(2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 4-2-2 3 0 $23.88 $0.00 -12.00
CD-4   Win (3/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $9.56 $9.56 3.56
    Exacta (3/4/7)-(3/4/6/7/11) 12 $2.00 $24.00 3-7 2 1 $33.86 $33.86 9.86
    Trifecta (3/4/7)-(3/4/6/7/11)-(3/4/6/7/11) 36 $0.50 $18.00 3-7-10 3 0 $87.32 $0.00 -18.00
    Daily Double (2/5)-(3/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 2-3 2 1 $11.96 $11.96 5.96
    Pick Three (1/4/6)-(2/5)-(3/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 2-2-3 3 0 $39.79 $0.00 -9.00
CD-5   Win (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 6 1 0 $8.44 $0.00 -4.00
    Exacta (2/4)-(2/3/4/5/6) 8 $2.00 $16.00 6-4 2 0 $25.80 $0.00 -16.00
    Trifecta (2/4)-(2/3/4/5/6)-(2/3/4/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 6-4-5 3 0 $53.13 $0.00 -12.00
    Daily Double (3/4/7)-(2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 3-6 2 0 $23.92 $0.00 -6.00
    Pick Three (2/5)-(3/4/7)-(2/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 2-3-6 3 0 $31.82 $0.00 -6.00
CD-6   Win (7/11/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00 8 1 0 $8.14 $0.00 -6.00
    Exacta (7/11/12)-(5/7/8/11/12) 12 $2.00 $24.00 8-1 2 0 $179.26 $0.00 -24.00
    Trifecta (7/11/12)-(5/7/8/11/12)-(5/7/8/11/12) 36 $0.50 $18.00 8-1-6 3 0 $406.28 $0.00 -18.00
    Daily Double (2/4)-(7/11/12) 6 $1.00 $6.00 6-8 2 0 $17.87 $0.00 -6.00
    Pick Three (3/4/7)-(2/4)-(7/11/12) 18 $0.50 $9.00 3-6-8 3 0 $49.43 $0.00 -9.00
CD-7   Win (2/4/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $9.62 $9.62 1.62
    Exacta (2/4/6/7)-(2/4/6/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 2-3 2 0 $71.08 $0.00 -24.00
    Trifecta (2/4/6/7)-(2/4/6/7)-(2/4/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 2-3-6 3 0 $159.07 $0.00 -12.00
    Daily Double (7/11/12)-(2/4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 8-2 2 0 $15.94 $0.00 -12.00
    Pick Three (2/4)-(7/11/12)-(2/4/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 6-8-2 3 0 $34.83 $0.00 -12.00
CD-8   Win (2/5/13) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $5.94 $0.00 -6.00
    Exacta (2/5/13)-(2/4/5/11/13) 12 $2.00 $24.00 4-6 2 0 $51.82 $0.00 -24.00
    Trifecta (2/5/13)-(2/4/5/11/13)-(2/4/5/11/13) 36 $0.50 $18.00 4-6-13 3 0 $74.10 $0.00 -18.00
    Daily Double (2/4/6/7)-(2/5/13) 12 $1.00 $12.00 2-4 2 0 $14.14 $0.00 -12.00
    Pick Three (7/11/12)-(2/4/6/7)-(2/5/13) 36 $0.50 $18.00 8-2-4 3 0 $42.15 $0.00 -18.00
CD-9   Win (2/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $19.64 $0.00 -6.00
    Exacta (2/3/7)-(2/3/7/8/11) 12 $2.00 $24.00 4-5 2 0 $204.16 $0.00 -24.00
    Trifecta (2/3/7)-(2/3/7/8/11)-(2/3/7/8/11) 36 $0.50 $18.00 4-5-7 3 0 $402.48 $0.00 -18.00
    Daily Double (2/5/13)-(2/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 4-4 2 0 $30.94 $0.00 -9.00
    Pick Three (2/4/6/7)-(2/5/13)-(2/3/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 2-4-4 3 0 $86.78 $0.00 -18.00
CD-10   Win (1/2/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $36.86 $36.86 30.86
    Exacta (1/2/9)-(1/2/7/9/12) 12 $2.00 $24.00 2-6 2 0 $774.98 $0.00 -24.00
    Trifecta (1/2/9)-(1/2/7/9/12)-(1/2/7/9/12) 36 $0.50 $18.00 2-6-10 3 0 $5105.31 $0.00 -18.00
    Daily Double (2/3/7)-(1/2/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 4-3 2 0 $8.04 $0.00 -9.00
    Pick Three (2/5/13)-(2/3/7)-(1/2/9) 27 $0.50 $13.50 4-4-3 3 0 $14.35 $0.00 -13.50

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   05/14/2023 4290ft DIRT SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
:222 :46 1:112     1:183   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
A REAL JEWEL 4 1 21 1nk   12 1(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 2.59  
RACETOTHEFINISH 8 4 32 31   22 2(becker scot)TORRES A 118 4.50 14% 6.40 4.47 P
RELIANT 2 7 76 79   537 (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00 17.34  
LADY GOLDSTART 1 5 11 2nk   35 411¼ (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 118 4.00 39% 1.60 2.82  
HOLDONTOYOURTIARA 3 8 55 65   7513½ (cook b)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 14.53  
DOCS SEVEN 5 2 4 54   6614½ (manley stev)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 15% 5.80 6.93  
HIGH SPEED 6 6 65 4   4715 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 111 5.00 7.39  
TILTINGATWINDMILLS 7 3 88 810½   813¼ 829¾ (gerteisen adam)PARKER L 118 10.00 6% 16.40 6.94  
 
CD-2   05/14/2023 4620ft DIRT SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
:223 :46 1:111     1:243   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COMMANDER CARL 2 4 2½ 2½   11 14 (ortiz alexande)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50 4.06  
COLOR FIELD 1 2 1½ 1½   21 24 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 29% 2.50 3.75 P
RIGHT OF RUSH 3 5 53 54   33 3(brenklin emory)NAVAS YOEL 118 8.00 10.72  
BIG BOSS BEN 6 1 3 44   47 414 (garcia gena)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00 17% 4.80 7.85  
HASKELLED 7 6 43 33   5516 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 125 2.50 1.88  
MAJOR CONTENDER 4 3 6 66   611 624¾ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 26% 2.90 4.77  
RILEY BEE 5 7 7 7   714 727 (kordenbrock mat)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 15.00 10.52  
 
CD-3   05/14/2023 3960ft DIRT SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($63K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
:214 :453 :58     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MISREAD 2 3 3 3   11(drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 124 2.00 44% 1.30 1.19 W
ROYAL BLOOD 4 4 1 11   22(vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 7.65 P
THE PRINCESS SAYS 5 1 2 21   35 311½ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 24% 3.20 2.82 S
GOLDYS LOCK 6 5 6 67   58 411½ (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 9.21  
CRIMALDI 7 2 4 4   4513½ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 7.66  
HURRY UP HANNAH 1 6 5 56   6614¾ (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 7.15  
MY BLUE VALENTINE 3 7 7 712   715 725¼ (hill f)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 20.00 22.17  
 
CD-4   05/14/2023 5280ft DIRT SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
:224 :461 1:113 1:242   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MY UNCLE LEON 2 2 1nk 1½ 13 11(lukas way)TORRES A 118 5.00 10% 8.60 3.78 W
NOISES OFF 5 4 5 64 3 22(lobo paulo )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50 54% 0.90 2.18 P
10  PEEK 8 8 8 76 76 38 38 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00 16.44  
11  EARL OF DASSEL 9 9 9 10 8 64(pessin l)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 16.25  
PATROLMAN 6 10 107 9 6 59 510½ (esquivel jesus)BEJARANO R 125 15.00 19.74  
DREAM FORCE 4 5 6 4 55 711 618 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 20.21  
FIREBALL FUN 7 6 3.2 3 4 4718 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 4.43  
SIX MISSIONS 3 3 2nk 2½ 23 811½ 825½ (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 15% 5.70 4.40  
13  SATURDAY LONG LEGS 10 7 7 87 911½ 921½ 942¾ (frazier matt)LANERIE J 118 20.00 30.15  
GOLD FRANC (IRE) 1 1 4 5 1013 1022½ 1044½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 11.89  
 
CD-5   05/14/2023 4290ft DIRT SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:45
:23 :461 1:103     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LIKE A SALTSHAKER 6 5 3½ 1nk   12 1(contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 3.00 3.22  
CRAZY LEGS HIRSCH 4 6 6 6   46 2(maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 33% 2.00 2.39 P
HOT PASTRAMI 5 4 2nk 2nk   22 36 (amoss m)RIQUELME J 118 6.00 7.71 S
SANTA CRUISER 8 9 9 9   547 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 10.01  
DARK HEDGES 2 1 1nk 3½   35(vanden berg)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.50 42% 1.40 4.57  
BLACK STORM 9 2 7 4   78 610¾ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 17.83  
BRAVO BRAVO 7 3 8 7   89 712¼ (vance thoma)TORRES A 118 20.00 23.92  
FIRERY TALE 3 7 5 5   68 816½ (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 5.79  
MALIBU TIME 1 8 41 8   913 921 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00 16.99  
 
CD-6   05/14/2023 5610ft DIRT GOOD Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
:24 :481 1:14 1:393   1:461   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DUAL MONARCHY 8 11 1010 912 94 4¾ 1nk (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 3.07  
GLEN AIRY 1 8 7 79 6 1½ 2nk (sims philip )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 30.00 23.31  
MARTY'S MAGIC 6 3 43 4 52 531 (de hor)SANTANA JR 118 12.00 9.86  
12  FUJIN 11 7 6 6 41 2½ 4(devaux cher)TORRES A 118 5.00 8% 11.60 6.98  
MAD HUSTLE 4 2 55 5 8 75(mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 8.39  
11  ABSOLUTE COURAGE 10 5 32 3 3½ 3½ 6(asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.50 19% 4.20 3.38  
WASHINGTON'S UNION 5 1 8 1012½ 107 1076 (sims a)GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00 13.87  
COACH PETRO 7 6 1½ 1½ 1nk 687 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 51% 1.00 4.86  
REMASTERED 2 9 9 810 73 9911¾ (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 21.45  
10  RIO MOON 9 4 2½ 2½ 2nk 81013¾ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 14.26  
SCHMEAR 3 10 1132½ 1115 1112 1113¾ 1121¼ (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 118 20.00 37.81  
 
CD-7   05/14/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:50
:231 :463 1:11     1:24   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ENCHANTED NILE 2 1 21 11   13 1(hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.50 14% 5.90 3.81 W
MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT 3 4 5 3   23 2(cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.00 4.91  
DONYA KNOW IT 6 2 42 4   36 3(amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 22% 3.60 8.71 S
MUSIC AMORE 1 8 31 5   4410½ (vasquez sr)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 7.21  
SUE ELLEN MISHKIN 7 3 11 21   5512¾ (shirer matt )GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 32% 2.20 2.61  
PISTOL 4 7 7 66   6613 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 11% 7.90 2.74  
KIMBERLEY DREAM 8 5 6 7   713½ 719 (winston d)CASTANON L 118 20.00 31.45  
GIN N SIN 5 6 8 810½   814½ 819½ (faircloth aveo)CALLEJA ANDRES 108 30.00 26.65  
 
CD-8   05/14/2023 5940ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
:233 :474 1:121 1:38   1:501   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SALUTE THE STARS 3 4 1nk 3 32 11 1¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00 1.97  
ESCAPOLOGIST 5 1 5 53 44 32¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 14.53  
13  REDEEMER 10 9 6 64 54 21 31 (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 7% 12.60 5.69 S
BASELINE BEATER 6 10 1012¼ 1014 1013½ 64(pessin l)LANERIE J 118 20.00 9.50  
REALLY GOOD 4 2 3½ 42 2 4511½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 21% 3.80 4.93  
BABY BILLY 1 6 8 75 7 5612½ (sisterson jack)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 50% 1.00 5.20  
OUR DREAM RYE'D 2 7 9 98 8 7713¼ (wilkes ian)SANTANA JR 118 8.00 15.51  
12  BLACK APPLE 9 8 7 86 9 8820½ (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00 40.83  
11  CLEAR THE AIR 8 5 2nk 11 1 911 933½ (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 118 15.00 8.03  
10  TIGER PAW (IRE) 7 3 4¾ 21 6 1014 1034¾ (meah m)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 22.56  
 
CD-9   05/14/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
:221 :453 :571     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HE'SMYHONEYBADGER 4 3 1nk 1½   12 11 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 5.00 8.82  
HAPPY JACK 5 10 95 87   521 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 6.92  
BRON AND BROW 7 2 3 2½   22 31 (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 24% 3.20 6.88 S
BOURBON HEIST 2 7 6 5   35 4(wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 116 4.50 29% 2.50 4.57  
11  MINNESOTA READY 10 1 7 75   65(pessin l)LANERIE J 121 6.00 4.63  
UNDER OATH 3 8 4 32   466 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00 24% 3.20 1.82  
TEXAS RED HOT 9 4 106 9   710 7(morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 20.00 39.06  
UNPREDICTABLE BAY 6 5 5 64   811 813 (hammond kim)PEDROZA MARCELINO 121 15.00 33.84  
TOP OF THE CHARTS 1 6 2nk 4   913½ 920 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00 14.17  
DRIVE FOR FUN 8 9 8 1010   1017½ 1027½ (delacruz mej)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 10.00 36.35  
 
CD-10   05/14/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
:23 :46 1:111 1:24   1:363   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOREAU 2 2 6 5 32 2½ 1(mckeever andrew)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 17% 4.90 17.43 W
CHIRON 5 4 3½ 3.2 11 1½ 2(bush s)ELLIOTT JANE 125 20.00 38.09  
10  SMILE MON 9 8 8 8 7 34 3(romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00 23.01  
TIZ WICKED STRONG 7 10 9 9 8 647 (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 39.86  
REDEMPTION TIME 4 5 7 6 4 55 5(calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 8.00 6.57  
TRUMPTASTIC 1 1 2nk 1nk 21 44 613¼ (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 125 3.50 39% 1.50 3.08  
SHERIFF RONNIE 6 9 10 10 107 7715½ (sanchez-salomon )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 35.22  
BRIGADE COMMANDER 8 6 4¾ 4 53 811¾ 821¾ (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 21% 3.80 3.11  
12  PURSUIT OF POWER 10 7 5¾ 7 64 911¾ 923¼ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 3.65  
GILDED CRAKEN 3 3 1nk 2nk 9 1015¾ 1033¾ (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 3.90  
SCR  ZAPHOD               (catalano way)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.