Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/5/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-2   Win (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-3   Win (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-4   Win (7/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-5   Win (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-6   Win (7/11/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-7   Win (7/6/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-8   Win (2/5/13) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-9   Win (2/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-10   Win (1/9/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   05/14/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LADY GOLDSTART Jan29 Dec09 Nov10 Oct19 Aug21 (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 118 4.00 39% 1.60    
RELIANT Feb19 Jan29 Jan15 Dec14 Dec01 (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00    
HOLDONTOYOURTIARA Apr22 Mar23 Feb25 Feb16 Jan25 (cook b)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
A REAL JEWEL Feb26 Jan29 Jan01 Aug24 Jul27 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
DOCS SEVEN Apr25 Apr09 Mar09 Feb08 Jan12 (manley stev)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 15% 5.80    
HIGH SPEED Apr22 Mar26 Feb04 Sep18 Aug23 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 111 5.00    
TILTINGATWINDMILLS Jan04 Dec15 Nov16 Oct23 Sep07 (gerteisen adam)PARKER L 118 10.00 6% 16.40    
RACETOTHEFINISH Apr29 Apr09 Sep03 Jul12 Jun28 (becker scot)TORRES A 118 4.50 14% 6.40    
 
CD-2   05/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COLOR FIELD May04 Apr12 Feb03 Jan06 Nov27 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 29% 2.50    
COMMANDER CARL Apr21 Mar23 Mar05 Feb04 Dec11 (ortiz alexande)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50    
RIGHT OF RUSH Apr29 Feb11 Dec28 Dec17 Nov27 (brenklin emory)NAVAS YOEL 118 8.00    
MAJOR CONTENDER Apr21 Mar25 Mar09 Feb17 Dec29 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 26% 2.90    
RILEY BEE Apr27 Mar17 Mar10 Nov09 Oct22 (kordenbrock mat)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 15.00    
BIG BOSS BEN Apr27 Apr01 Mar10 Feb24 Dec31 (garcia gena)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  RIVER BOY Apr13 Mar16 Jan29 Dec19 Nov25 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
HASKELLED Apr16 Mar12 Jan06 Dec18   (diodoro rob)TORRES A 125 2.50    
 
CD-3   05/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($63K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HURRY UP HANNAH Apr15         (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00    
MISREAD Oct07 May06 Mar26     (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 124 2.00 44% 1.30    
MY BLUE VALENTINE         (hill f)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 20.00    
ROYAL BLOOD Apr23 Apr07 Mar18     (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
THE PRINCESS SAYS Apr12 Mar16 Mar01     (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 24% 3.20    
GOLDYS LOCK         (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
CRIMALDI Mar16 Feb16 Nov18     (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00    
 
CD-4   05/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOLD FRANC (IRE) Apr20         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
SCR  FIXITWITHFORWARD Apr08 Jan28 Dec02     (mckeever andrew)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
MY UNCLE LEON Apr21 Mar25 Mar04 Oct07   (lukas way)TORRES A 118 5.00 10% 8.60    
SIX MISSIONS Oct15 Sep03 Jul30     (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 15% 5.70    
SCR  COAL BOSS Mar09 Feb12 Jan21 Dec23 Nov26 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
DREAM FORCE Feb18 Dec26 Nov19 Jul22   (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
NOISES OFF Mar25 Feb24 Jan28 Nov26   (lobo paulo )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50 54% 0.90    
PATROLMAN Apr21 Feb04 Jan07 Dec17   (esquivel jesus)BEJARANO R 125 15.00    
FIREBALL FUN         (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
10  PEEK Feb10 Dec29       (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
11  EARL OF DASSEL Apr14 Mar18 Feb18 Jan21   (pessin l)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
SCR  PITAGORE         (engler jeff)LANERIE J 125 10.00    
13  SATURDAY LONG LEGS Apr29         (frazier matt)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
SCR  HARRY HOOD Mar12         (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
SCR  STORMIN ARMY Mar18 Feb25 Jan28 Aug13 Jun30 (vance david)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
SCR  TAKING CANDY Aug20         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
 
CD-5   05/14/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MALIBU TIME Apr29 Mar18 Feb17 Jan27 Jan07 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
DARK HEDGES Apr23 Mar30 Mar09 Jan19 Dec17 (vanden berg)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.50 42% 1.40    
FIRERY TALE Apr08 Mar26 Mar04 Jan22 Dec17 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
CRAZY LEGS HIRSCH Apr13 Mar18 Feb04 Jan16 Dec16 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 33% 2.00    
HOT PASTRAMI Mar03 Jan15 Dec10 Nov17 Oct14 (amoss m)RIQUELME J 118 6.00    
LIKE A SALTSHAKER Mar10 Jan01 Dec16 Nov09 Aug17 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 3.00    
BRAVO BRAVO Apr23 Apr15 Mar26 Mar05 Feb20 (vance thoma)TORRES A 118 20.00    
SANTA CRUISER Mar05 Feb17 Jan22 Jun08 Apr16 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
BLACK STORM Apr14 Mar26 Mar17 Feb20 Feb05 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
 
CD-6   05/14/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GLEN AIRY Feb24 Nov05       (sims philip )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 30.00    
REMASTERED Mar09         (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
SCHMEAR Oct23         (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
MAD HUSTLE Apr15 Apr02       (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
WASHINGTON'S UNION Apr22 Feb03 Jan13 Dec16 Oct28 (sims a)GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
MARTY'S MAGIC Mar18 Feb12 Jan14 Oct13 Sep03 (de hor)SANTANA JR 118 12.00    
COACH PETRO Apr14 Dec16 Sep25 Aug20 Jul23 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 51% 1.00    
DUAL MONARCHY Apr08 Mar04 Feb02 Jan05 Dec03 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Mar19 Feb11 Jan14 Dec19 Nov19 (barnett bobby )BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 10.00    
10  RIO MOON Apr06 Feb26 Jan27 Nov23 Sep22 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00    
11  ABSOLUTE COURAGE Jan27 Dec18 Nov18 Sep18 Sep03 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.50 19% 4.20    
12  FUJIN Mar26 Jan06 Nov23     (devaux cher)TORRES A 118 5.00 8% 11.60    
 
CD-7   05/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MUSIC AMORE May02 Mar02 Dec31 Dec10 Oct14 (vasquez sr)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
ENCHANTED NILE Apr07 Jan28 Jan13 Dec18 Nov16 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.50 14% 5.90    
MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT Apr29 Apr12 Mar24 Feb16 Jan19 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.00    
PISTOL Apr22 Mar24 Feb12 Jan29 Nov16 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 11% 7.90    
GIN N SIN Apr08 Mar11 Jan25 Jan04 Dec14 (faircloth aveo)CALLEJA ANDRES 108 30.00    
DONYA KNOW IT Mar04 Feb11 Jan14 Dec15 Nov23 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 22% 3.60    
SUE ELLEN MISHKIN Apr25 Mar31 Jan29 Jan01 Nov25 (shirer matt )GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 32% 2.20    
KIMBERLEY DREAM Mar24 Feb16 Nov27 Oct31 Oct09 (winston d)CASTANON L 118 20.00    
 
CD-8   05/14/2023 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SAM STORMY Apr21 Feb25 Oct30 Sep08   (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
BABY BILLY Apr15 Mar25 Feb18 Jan01 Dec03 (sisterson jack)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 50% 1.00    
OUR DREAM RYE'D Apr21 Mar04 Oct29 Oct09 Aug31 (wilkes ian)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
SALUTE THE STARS Aug27 Jul30       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00    
REALLY GOOD Apr15 Nov04 Oct09 Sep14 Jul23 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 21% 3.80    
ESCAPOLOGIST Apr15 Mar25 Mar01 Jan28 Jan14 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
SCR  SANTORINI Mar25 Mar04 Jan21 Dec09 Oct21 (pletcher tod)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60    
SCR  COALMINER'S KITTEN Apr20 Apr01 Feb08 Jan12 Nov11 (demeritte larry)MCENTEE GRACE 118 30.00    
BASELINE BEATER Apr15 Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 Dec08 (pessin l)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
10  TIGER PAW (IRE) Apr28 Mar25 Feb02     (meah m)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
11  CLEAR THE AIR Apr08 Mar04 Feb11 Jan06 Aug28 (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 118 15.00    
12  BLACK APPLE Apr16 Mar10 Jan21 Dec31   (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
13  REDEEMER Oct12 Aug28 Jul30     (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 7% 12.60    
 
CD-9   05/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TOP OF THE CHARTS Apr16 Aug14 Jun25 May28   (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
BOURBON HEIST Apr28 Mar10 Jan13 Dec11 Aug21 (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 116 4.50 29% 2.50    
UNDER OATH Apr16 Mar04 Aug24 Jul23 Apr16 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00 24% 3.20    
HE'SMYHONEYBADGER Mar18 Feb11 Jan06 Nov23 Sep23 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 5.00    
HAPPY JACK Aug27 Jul24 Jun19 May21 May07 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 6.00    
UNPREDICTABLE BAY Apr18 Jan14 Dec17 Dec03 Nov09 (hammond kim)PEDROZA MARCELINO 121 15.00    
BRON AND BROW Mar25 Feb04 Jan07 Dec15 May29 (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 24% 3.20    
DRIVE FOR FUN Jan13 Dec16 Nov24 Nov09 Oct14 (delacruz mej)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 10.00    
TEXAS RED HOT Apr16 Apr02 Mar12 Feb05 Nov27 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 20.00    
SCR  BROKEN RIB Feb12 Jan16 Dec10 Nov23 Oct17 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
11  MINNESOTA READY Apr16 Mar16 Jan26 Dec11 Nov09 (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 6.00    
 
CD-10   05/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TRUMPTASTIC Apr15 Feb11 Jan14     (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 125 3.50 39% 1.50    
MOREAU Apr22         (mckeever andrew)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  ZAPHOD         (catalano way)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
GILDED CRAKEN Apr22         (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
REDEMPTION TIME Apr14 Oct16 Sep18 Jul31   (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 8.00    
CHIRON Apr01 Mar17 Oct02 Sep18 Aug05 (bush s)ELLIOTT JANE 125 20.00    
SHERIFF RONNIE Apr06 Mar19 Mar04 Feb10 Jan27 (sanchez-salomon )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
TIZ WICKED STRONG         (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
BRIGADE COMMANDER Apr16         (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 21% 3.80    
10  SMILE MON Dec31 Nov26       (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
SCR  VIGANO Apr08 Mar03 Apr16 Mar13 Jan28 (zito p)BEJARANO R 125 20.00    
12  PURSUIT OF POWER Apr14 Mar18       (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.