Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   EXA (5/6/1)-(5/6/1/3/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00  5-1 $35.50 $11.50 48%
    TRI (5/6/1)-(5/6/1/3/7)-(5/6/1/3/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00  5-1-3 $37.48 $19.48 108%
    SFT (5/6/1)-(5/6/1/3/7)-(5/6/1/3/7)-(5/6/1/3/7) 72 $0.10 $7.20  5-1-3-7 $35.98 $28.78 400%
CD-7   WIN (7/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00  4 $7.12 $3.12 78%
    EXA (7/4)-(7/4/12/5/10) 8 $2.00 $16.00  4-5 $75.34 $59.34 371%
    TRI (7/4)-(7/4/12/5/10)-(7/4/12/5/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00  4-5-10 $107.91 $95.91 799%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   05/11/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:00
See original race card.
:221 :46       :584   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  FROSTY THE GIANT 5 4 21½ 2½   12½ 16 (farrior an)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 32% 2.20 1.45 W
  (by FROSTED out of FIELD OF FLOWERS by CITY ZIP)
1  WEST SARATOGA 1 3 33½ 43½   34½ 26 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 23% 3.40 8.32 P
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of MO WICKED by UNCLE MO)
3  PATCH O'BRIEN 3 2 44 33   44½ 36 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 ★ 2.77 S
  (by PALACE MALICE out of BALLSTON by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
7  FIVE STAR RUN 6 7 88 810   58½ 49½ (nihei michell)GILLIGAN JACK 119 10.00 ★ 8.24  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of FIVE STAR FACTOR by THE FACTOR)
4  DUNPHY 4 1 11½ 1½   22½ 511¼ (ennis john)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 30.42  
  (by MR SPEAKER out of ENCHANTED SUNRISE by VERRAZANO)
2  FIVE O' SOMEWHERE 2 10 66½ 57½   610 613¼ (spraggins k)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 7.30  
  (by MUNNINGS out of VIVA SHEILA by TIZNOW)
9  INNOCENT MAN 8 5 56½ 68½   712 716¼ (navarrete )HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 14.06  
  (by HONOR CODE out of NOBLE GREY by FORESTRY)
10  IMPERIAL THUNDER 9 6 77½ 79   812½ 816½ (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 109 12.00 19.15  
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of NEVER SOBER by SILENT NAME (JPN))
12  MIDNIGHT STORMY 11 11 1110½ 912½   914½ 917¾ (minnock way)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00 62.80  
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of AVA G by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
8  NUEVO AMANECER 7 8 1010 1013   1015 1018½ (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 62.77  
  (by MASTERY out of MIDNIGHT SWINGER by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
11  NOBLE GENTLEMAN 10 9 99½ 1113   1115½ 1120½ (demeritte lar)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 39.71  
  (by TAMARKUZ out of LOUVE ROYALE by PEINTRE CELEBRE)
SCR  CALLIN MY NAME               (mccutchen )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.50 24% 3.20    
  (by GORMLEY out of FAYREEN by ELITE SQUADRON)
 
CD-2   05/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:29
See original race card.
:223 :462       :524   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  CLOSING ACT 3 7 54½     44½ 1¼ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 5.97  
  (by MUNNINGS out of EVENING SHOW by DEVONGATE)
3  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI 1 2 44½     54½ 2¼ (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 12.00 22.62  
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
9  KRICKLE 7 6 32     33½ 31 (holsapple)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 43% 1.30 5.93 S
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
6  TOO FAST FOR YOU 4 3 1½     12 41¾ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 ★ 1.73  
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of GIOVANNA BLUES by GIO PONTI)
8  APRIL CLOVER 6 5 2½     22 54¾ (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 11.87  
  (by MITOLE out of KADA by VIOLENCE)
7  YOU'RE KITTEN ME 5 4 78     77½ 66¼ (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 15.71  
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of DUPLICATE KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
10  GIRLS WEEKEND 8 8 65     66½ 76¾ (barkley ja)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 5.00 5% 19.00 1.84  
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of ISLAND LOVE SONG by DEHERE)
4  BELLA VALENTINA 2 1 89     812 817¾ (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 109 20.00 ★ 34.61  
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of SO REFINED by TAPIZAR)
SCR  MUSICAL DIVA               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 30% 2.30    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR  V V'S DREAM               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of QUAY by TAPIT)
 
CD-3   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 F PT- 5:58
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:104     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  TELL ME WHEN 2 1 11 11   11½ 11¼ (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 3.66  
1  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY 1 6 31½ 31½   21½ 21¼ (danner d)RODRIGUEZ A 115 5.00 6.12  
4  GHOSTLY GIRL 3 4 52 63   33½ 31¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 19% 4.30 1.10 S
6  FRIGID LADY 5 5 63 42   44½ 46 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 33% 2.00 4.23  
7  MEAN SUE 6 2 41½ 21   56 511½ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 10.00 17% 4.80 16.19  
5  CHARLEE MAE 4 3 21 52   612 636¼ (hamilton sara)GILLIGAN JACK 120 8.00 6.53  
SCR  KEY TO SUCCESS               (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 120 5.00    
SCR  PIGALLE               (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
See original race card.
:213 :451 :573     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  LAZARUS 6 2 31 2nk   11 14 (morey e)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 2.93  
2  ISOCLINE 2 4 1½ 1nk   21 24 (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 2.50 54% 0.80 1.91 P
5  CROSSING 4 1 41½ 42½   33 35 (lauer mi)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00 5.51  
1  LITTLE MAN CAN 1 6 52 54½   45 47¾ (lovell michelle)GRAHAM J 124 5.00 ★ 3.81  
4  BODONTKNOW 3 5 67½ 69½   610½ 58¾ (schultz lind)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 8.00 19% 4.20 4.02  
6  PERFECT THUNDER 5 3 2½ 31½   57½ 620¾ (brennan t)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 17.12  
SCR  DIVINING STONE               (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 ★    
SCR  WICKED SECRET               (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00    
 
CD-5   05/11/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
See original race card.
:233 :491 1:131 1:361   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  TIBERIUS MERCURIUS 7 1 2nk 2½ 1nk 1nk 1hd (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 20% 3.90 2.68 W
4  HARLAN ESTATE 3 5 1nk 1½ 2nk 2nk 2hd (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00 9.74  
9  VINTAGE PRINT 8 6 31½ 42 31½ 32½ 32¼ (lobo pau)RODRIGUEZ A 117 5.00 ★ 6.66 S
5  DASH ATTACK 4 4 52¾ 52½ 62¾ 44 42¾ (mcpeek kenneth )COHEN DAVID 122 12.00 8% 11.90 13.17  
6  VIVAR 5 2 73 73¾ 84½ 75½ 53½ (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 4.50 35% 1.90 4.19  
3  FOUNDER 2 8 84½ 83¾ 73 65 64¾ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 12% 7.50 3.70  
2  TOMMY BEE 1 7 41¾ 32 41¾ 54½ 75½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00 4.32  
7  FENWICK STATION 6 3 62¾ 63½ 52¾ 86 86¼ (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 17.54  
SCR  ELEVEN CENTRAL               (lobo pau)SANTANA JR 122 1.80    
SCR  JUNGLE WARFARE               (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
 
CD-6   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 7:25
See original race card.
:222 :452 1:11     1:18   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  PRINCESSTAPITURE 6 1 2nk 11   14 13¾ (andrade hugo)MARCANO Y 111 10.00 ★ 7.99  
5  LA CUMPARSITA 5 3 53¼ 45   46½ 23¾ (hester haley)BECKMAN ALICE 111 15.00 22.32  
2  INVALUABLE 2 5 42¾ 33   35 35¼ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 53% 0.90 0.73 S
3  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI 3 6 64¼ 55½   56½ 45¾ (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 18.66  
4  LI'L GRAZEN 4 2 1nk 21   24 57 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 118 2.00 11% 8.40 1.79  
1  EVERYOTHERWON 1 4 32½ 66   66¾ 67¾ (lauer micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 12.51  
SCR  DISCERNMENT               (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 3.00 15% 5.70    
 
CD-7   05/11/2023 6270ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
See original race card.
:241 :493 1:14 1:383   1:57   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  GIANT GAME 3 1 11 1½ 1½ 1½ 1¾ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.00 22% 3.60 2.56 W
5  TIWANAKU 4 2 21 2½ 2½ 2½ 2¾ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00 ★ 9.46 P
10  THE PRINCE'S SPUR 7 3 31½ 31½ 31 32½ 34½ (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00 ★ 5.56 S
11  BOLZY 8 4 52 53½ 63 42½ 44¾ (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 126 15.00 7.89  
12  O CAPTAIN 9 6 73½ 85 84½ 75½ 56 (delgado g)TORRES A 124 5.00 ★ 5.75  
7  PRINCIPE D'ORO 5 8 41½ 42 42 54 66 (pletcher)SANTANA JR 124 2.50 55% 0.80 3.11  
8  COUSIN LARRY 6 7 63 63½ 53 65 76¼ (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 15.00 27.56  
1  SPIN WHEEL 1 9 96 97 96½ 87 810 (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 124 12.00 11.65  
2  MASTER GAME 2 5 84 74½ 74 99½ 918¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 124 12.00 14.16  
SCR  B MINOR               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
SCR  BRIGHT SPARK               (flint bernar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 30.00    
SCR  INTERLOCK EMPIRE               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
SCR  REDEEMER               (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   05/11/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
See original race card.
:243 :491 1:131 1:382   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  JOHNY'S FIREBALL 2 5 41½ 41¾ 32 2½ 1½ (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 124 4.50 2.28  
5  CARMICHAEL 3 1 2½ 2nk 12 1½ 2½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00 1.93  
7  UNINVITED GUEST 5 2 31½ 31½ 43½ 44 36¼ (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 124 6.00 7.76  
2  STONEVICIOUS 1 4 1½ 1nk 22 32½ 46¼ (foster eric)GRAHAM J 124 12.00 9% 10.80 7.38  
6  LONG CROW 4 3 52½ 53¼ 54 56 515½ (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 9% 9.90 2.00  
SCR  AMERICAN HERO               (flint bern)HERNANDEZ J 124 12.00    
SCR  COOL RAGS               (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  FLOKI'S FLIGHT               (romans d)SANTANA JR 124 3.50 23% 3.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.