The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 5 1 1 $4.90 $4.90 0.90
    Exacta (1/5)-(1/3/5/7) 6 $2.00 $12.00 5-1 2 1 $35.50 $35.50 23.50
    Trifecta (1/5)-(1/3/5/7)-(1/3/5/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 5-1-3 3 1 $37.48 $37.48 31.48
CD-2   Win (9/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 5 1 0 $13.94 $0.00 -4.00
    Exacta (9/10)-(4/6/9/10) 6 $2.00 $12.00 5-3 2 0 $223.04 $0.00 -12.00
    Trifecta (9/10)-(4/6/9/10)-(4/6/9/10) 12 $0.50 $6.00 5-3-9 3 0 $216.84 $0.00 -6.00
    Daily Double (1/5)-(9/10) 4 $1.00 $4.00 5-5 2 0 $20.61 $0.00 -4.00
CD-3   Win (4/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $9.32 $0.00 -6.00
    Exacta (4/6/7)-(4/6/7) 6 $2.00 $12.00 2-1 2 0 $40.58 $0.00 -12.00
    Trifecta (4/6/7)-(4/6/7)-(4/6/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 2-1-4 3 0 $24.90 $0.00 -3.00
    Daily Double (9/10)-(4/6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 5-2 2 0 $50.27 $0.00 -6.00
    Pick Three (1/5)-(9/10)-(4/6/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 5-5-2 3 0 $56.63 $0.00 -6.00
CD-4   Win (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 8 1 0 $7.86 $0.00 -4.00
    Exacta (2/4)-(1/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8-2 2 0 $22.92 $0.00 -8.00
    Trifecta (2/4)-(1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 4 $0.50 $2.00 8-2-5 3 0 $18.43 $0.00 -2.00
    Daily Double (4/6/7)-(2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 2-8 2 0 $29.93 $0.00 -6.00
    Pick Three (9/10)-(4/6/7)-(2/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 5-2-8 3 0 $88.47 $0.00 -6.00
CD-5   Win (3/5/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $7.36 $7.36 -0.64
    Exacta (3/5/6/8)-(3/5/6/8/9) 16 $2.00 $32.00 8-4 2 0 $65.60 $0.00 -32.00
    Trifecta (3/5/6/8)-(3/5/6/8/9)-(3/5/6/8/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 8-4-9 3 0 $85.53 $0.00 -24.00
    Daily Double (2/4)-(3/5/6/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 8-8 2 0 $14.27 $0.00 -8.00
    Pick Three (4/6/7)-(2/4)-(3/5/6/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 2-8-8 3 0 $46.42 $0.00 -12.00
CD-6   Win (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 6 1 0 $17.98 $0.00 -4.00
    Exacta (2/4)-(2/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6-5 2 0 $134.28 $0.00 -8.00
    Trifecta (2/4)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 4 $0.50 $2.00 6-5-2 3 0 $119.88 $0.00 -2.00
    Daily Double (3/5/6/8)-(2/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 8-6 2 0 $54.95 $0.00 -8.00
    Pick Three (2/4)-(3/5/6/8)-(2/4) 16 $0.50 $8.00 8-8-6 3 0 $70.38 $0.00 -8.00
CD-7   Win (4/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 4 1 1 $7.12 $7.12 3.12
    Exacta (4/7)-(4/5/7/10/12) 8 $2.00 $16.00 4-5 2 1 $75.34 $75.34 59.34
    Trifecta (4/7)-(4/5/7/10/12)-(4/5/7/10/12) 24 $0.50 $12.00 4-5-10 3 1 $107.91 $107.91 95.91
    Daily Double (2/4)-(4/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 6-4 2 0 $69.63 $0.00 -4.00
    Pick Three (3/5/6/8)-(2/4)-(4/7) 16 $0.50 $8.00 8-6-4 3 0 $116.93 $0.00 -8.00
CD-8   Win (2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 0 $6.56 $0.00 -4.00
    Exacta (2/6)-(2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3-5 2 0 $18.00 $0.00 -4.00
    Trifecta NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 3-5-7 3 0 $16.75 $0.00 0.00
    Daily Double (4/7)-(2/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 4-3 2 0 $14.31 $0.00 -4.00
    Pick Three (2/4)-(4/7)-(2/6) 8 $0.50 $4.00 6-4-3 3 0 $99.97 $0.00 -4.00

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   05/11/2023 3300ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:00
:221 :46       :584   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FROSTY THE GIANT 5 4 2 2½   116 (farrior anth)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 32% 2.20 1.45 W
WEST SARATOGA 1 3 3 4   326 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 23% 3.40 8.32 P
PATCH O'BRIEN 3 2 44 33   436 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 2.77 S
FIVE STAR RUN 6 7 88 810   54(nihei michelle)GILLIGAN JACK 119 10.00 8.24  
DUNPHY 4 1 1 1½   2511¼ (ennis john)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 30.42  
FIVE O' SOMEWHERE 2 10 6 5   610 613¼ (spraggins ken)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 7.30  
INNOCENT MAN 8 5 5 6   712 716¼ (navarrete an)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 14.06  
10  IMPERIAL THUNDER 9 6 7 79   812½ 816½ (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 109 12.00 19.15  
12  MIDNIGHT STORMY 11 11 1110½ 912½   914½ 917¾ (minnock wayne)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00 62.80  
NUEVO AMANECER 7 8 1010 1013   1015 1018½ (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 62.77  
11  NOBLE GENTLEMAN 10 9 9 1113   1115½ 1120½ (demeritte larry)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 39.71  
SCR  CALLIN MY NAME               (mccutchen ro)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.50 24% 3.20    
 
CD-2   05/11/2023 2970ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:29
:223 :462       :524   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CLOSING ACT 3 7 5     41¼ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 5.97  
FOOLISH FRONT FIFI 1 2 4     52¼ (hancock jack )MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 12.00 22.62  
KRICKLE 7 6 32     331 (holsapple h)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 43% 1.30 5.93 S
TOO FAST FOR YOU 4 3 1½     12 4(kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 1.73  
APRIL CLOVER 6 5 2½     22 5(asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 11.87  
YOU'RE KITTEN ME 5 4 78     76(arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 15.71  
10  GIRLS WEEKEND 8 8 65     67(barkley jaso)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 5.00 5% 19.00 1.84  
BELLA VALENTINA 2 1 89     812 817¾ (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 109 20.00 34.61  
SCR  MUSICAL DIVA               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  V V'S DREAM               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
 
CD-3   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 F PT- 5:58
:224 :46 1:104     1:173   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TELL ME WHEN 2 1 11 11   11(hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 3.66  
MOON MAGIC CHRISSY 1 6 3 3   22(danner dou)RODRIGUEZ A 115 5.00 6.12  
GHOSTLY GIRL 3 4 52 63   33(mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 19% 4.30 1.10 S
FRIGID LADY 5 5 63 42   446 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 33% 2.00 4.23  
MEAN SUE 6 2 4 21   56 511½ (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 120 10.00 17% 4.80 16.19  
CHARLEE MAE 4 3 21 52   612 636¼ (hamilton sarah)GILLIGAN JACK 120 8.00 6.53  
SCR  KEY TO SUCCESS               (puhich mike)LEPAROUX R 120 5.00    
SCR  PIGALLE               (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
:213 :451 :573     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LAZARUS 6 2 31 2nk   11 14 (morey e)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 2.93  
ISOCLINE 2 4 1½ 1nk   21 24 (simms jr)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 2.50 54% 0.80 1.91 P
CROSSING 4 1 4 4   33 35 (lauer mich)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00 5.51  
LITTLE MAN CAN 1 6 52 5   45 4(lovell michelle)GRAHAM J 124 5.00 3.81  
BODONTKNOW 3 5 6 6   610½ 5(schultz lindsa)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 8.00 19% 4.20 4.02  
PERFECT THUNDER 5 3 2½ 3   5620¾ (brennan ter)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 17.12  
SCR  DIVINING STONE               (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
SCR  WICKED SECRET               (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00    
 
CD-5   05/11/2023 5940ft TURF FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
:233 :491 1:131 1:361   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIBERIUS MERCURIUS 7 1 2nk 2½ 1nk 1nk 1hd (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 20% 3.90 2.68 W
HARLAN ESTATE 3 5 1nk 1½ 2nk 2nk 2hd (beckman whitw)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00 9.74  
VINTAGE PRINT 8 6 3 42 3 33(lobo paulo)RODRIGUEZ A 117 5.00 6.66 S
DASH ATTACK 4 4 5 5 6 44 4(mcpeek g)COHEN DAVID 122 12.00 8% 11.90 13.17  
VIVAR 5 2 73 7 8 75(medina robert)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 4.50 35% 1.90 4.19  
FOUNDER 2 8 8 8 73 65 6(maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 12% 7.50 3.70  
TOMMY BEE 1 7 4 32 4 57(cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00 4.32  
FENWICK STATION 6 3 6 6 5 86 8(kenneally eddie)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 17.54  
SCR  ELEVEN CENTRAL               (lobo paulo)SANTANA JR 122 1.80    
SCR  JUNGLE WARFARE               (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
 
CD-6   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 7:25
:222 :452 1:11     1:18   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRINCESSTAPITURE 6 1 2nk 11   14 1(andrade hugo)MARCANO Y 111 10.00 7.99  
LA CUMPARSITA 5 3 5 45   42(hester haley)BECKMAN ALICE 111 15.00 22.32  
INVALUABLE 2 5 4 33   35 3(maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 53% 0.90 0.73 S
SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI 3 6 6 5   54(gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 18.66  
LI'L GRAZEN 4 2 1nk 21   24 57 (diodoro ro)SANTANA JR 118 2.00 11% 8.40 1.79  
EVERYOTHERWON 1 4 3 66   66(lauer michael)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 12.51  
SCR  DISCERNMENT               (diodoro rob)TORRES A 118 3.00 15% 5.70    
 
CD-7   05/11/2023 6270ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
:241 :493 1:14 1:383   1:57   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GIANT GAME 3 1 11 1½ 1½ 1½ 1¾ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.00 22% 3.60 2.56 W
TIWANAKU 4 2 21 2½ 2½ 2½ 2¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00 9.46 P
10  THE PRINCE'S SPUR 7 3 3 3 31 33(bauer philip)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00 5.56 S
11  BOLZY 8 4 52 5 63 44(von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 126 15.00 7.89  
12  O CAPTAIN 9 6 7 85 8 756 (delgado gus)TORRES A 124 5.00 5.75  
PRINCIPE D'ORO 5 8 4 42 42 54 66 (pletcher t)SANTANA JR 124 2.50 55% 0.80 3.11  
COUSIN LARRY 6 7 63 6 53 65 7(lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 15.00 27.56  
SPIN WHEEL 1 9 96 97 9 87 810 (arnold geor)LEPAROUX R 124 12.00 11.65  
MASTER GAME 2 5 84 7 74 9918¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 124 12.00 14.16  
SCR  B MINOR               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
SCR  BRIGHT SPARK               (flint bernard )BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 30.00    
SCR  INTERLOCK EMPIRE               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
SCR  REDEEMER               (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   05/11/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
:243 :491 1:131 1:382   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JOHNY'S FIREBALL 2 5 4 4 32 2½ 1½ (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 124 4.50 2.28  
CARMICHAEL 3 1 2½ 2nk 12 1½ 2½ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00 1.93  
UNINVITED GUEST 5 2 3 3 4 44 3(margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 124 6.00 7.76  
STONEVICIOUS 1 4 1½ 1nk 22 34(foster eric)GRAHAM J 124 12.00 9% 10.80 7.38  
LONG CROW 4 3 5 5 54 56 515½ (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 9% 9.90 2.00  
SCR  AMERICAN HERO               (flint bernar)HERNANDEZ J 124 12.00    
SCR  COOL RAGS               (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  FLOKI'S FLIGHT               (romans dal)SANTANA JR 124 3.50 23% 3.40    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.