Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1/3/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1)-(5/1/3/7)-(5/1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (5/1)-(9/10) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5/1)-(9/10)-(6/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-2   WIN (9/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (9/10)-(9/10/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/10)-(9/10/6/4)-(9/10/6/4) 12 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (9/10)-(6/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (9/10)-(6/4/7)-(2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/7)-(6/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/7)-(6/4/7)-(6/4/7) 6 $1.00 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/7)-(2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/4/7)-(2/4)-(6/8/3/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/4)-(2/4/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (2/4)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 4 $1.00 $2.00 
    DD (2/4)-(6/8/3/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/4)-(6/8/3/5)-(2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/8/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/3/5)-(6/8/3/5/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/8/3/5)-(6/8/3/5/9)-(6/8/3/5/9) 48 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (6/8/3/5)-(2/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/8/3/5)-(2/4)-(7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-6   WIN (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/4)-(2/4/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (2/4)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 4 $1.00 $2.00 
    DD (2/4)-(7/4) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (2/4)-(7/4)-(6/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
CD-7   WIN (7/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/4)-(7/4/12/5/10) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (7/4)-(7/4/12/5/10)-(7/4/12/5/10) 24 $1.00 $12.00 
    DD (7/4)-(6/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/2)-(6/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/11/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WEST SARATOGA Apr07         (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 23% 3.40    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of MO WICKED by UNCLE MO)
2  FIVE O' SOMEWHERE         (spraggins k)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of VIVA SHEILA by TIZNOW)
3  PATCH O'BRIEN         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 ★    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of BALLSTON by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  DUNPHY Apr26         (ennis john)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of ENCHANTED SUNRISE by VERRAZANO)
5  FROSTY THE GIANT Apr20         (farrior an)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 32% 2.20    
  (by FROSTED out of FIELD OF FLOWERS by CITY ZIP)
SCR  CALLIN MY NAME Apr07         (mccutchen )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.50 24% 3.20    
  (by GORMLEY out of FAYREEN by ELITE SQUADRON)
7  FIVE STAR RUN         (nihei michell)GILLIGAN JACK 119 10.00 ★    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of FIVE STAR FACTOR by THE FACTOR)
8  NUEVO AMANECER         (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by MASTERY out of MIDNIGHT SWINGER by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
9  INNOCENT MAN Apr20         (navarrete )HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of NOBLE GREY by FORESTRY)
10  IMPERIAL THUNDER Apr26         (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 109 12.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of NEVER SOBER by SILENT NAME (JPN))
11  NOBLE GENTLEMAN         (demeritte lar)MCENTEE GRACE 119 20.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of LOUVE ROYALE by PEINTRE CELEBRE)
12  MIDNIGHT STORMY         (minnock way)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of AVA G by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
 
CD-2   05/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  V V'S DREAM         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of QUAY by TAPIT)
SCR  MUSICAL DIVA         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 30% 2.30    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
3  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI Apr19         (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 12.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
4  BELLA VALENTINA         (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 109 20.00 ★    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of SO REFINED by TAPIZAR)
5  CLOSING ACT         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of EVENING SHOW by DEVONGATE)
6  TOO FAST FOR YOU         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 ★    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of GIOVANNA BLUES by GIO PONTI)
7  YOU'RE KITTEN ME         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of DUPLICATE KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
8  APRIL CLOVER         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of KADA by VIOLENCE)
9  KRICKLE Apr19         (holsapple)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 43% 1.30    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of FRISCO GIRL by QUALITY ROAD)
10  GIRLS WEEKEND         (barkley ja)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of ISLAND LOVE SONG by DEHERE)
 
CD-3   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Apr14 Mar04 Feb11 Jan04 Dec09 (danner d)RODRIGUEZ A 115 5.00    
2  TELL ME WHEN Apr14 Jan14 Nov26 Sep30 Sep01 (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50    
SCR  KEY TO SUCCESS Apr14 Mar19 Feb19 Jan28 Dec31 (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 120 5.00    
4  GHOSTLY GIRL Apr22 Mar30 Feb17 Feb04 Jan21 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 19% 4.30    
5  CHARLEE MAE Apr22 Apr07 Mar10 Feb05 Jan13 (hamilton sara)GILLIGAN JACK 120 8.00    
6  FRIGID LADY Apr14 Feb03 Jan12 Nov19 Oct22 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 33% 2.00    
7  MEAN SUE Apr14 Mar10 Jan04 Nov25 Oct26 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 10.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  PIGALLE Mar16 Feb16 Jan18     (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   05/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITTLE MAN CAN Apr26 Mar19 Jan14     (lovell michelle)GRAHAM J 124 5.00 ★    
2  ISOCLINE Apr18 Mar11 Feb17     (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 2.50 54% 0.80    
SCR  WICKED SECRET Nov03 Sep28 Aug31     (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00    
4  BODONTKNOW         (schultz lind)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 8.00 19% 4.20    
5  CROSSING Mar12 Jan27 Jan01     (lauer mi)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00    
6  PERFECT THUNDER Apr23 Mar19       (brennan t)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  DIVINING STONE         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 ★    
8  LAZARUS Apr21 Mar10       (morey e)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
 
CD-5   05/11/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JUNGLE WARFARE Apr20 Jan27 Jan07 Nov04 Oct03 (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
2  TOMMY BEE Aug06 Jul02 May18 Apr29 Apr02 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00    
3  FOUNDER Mar25 Jan27 Dec28 Nov06 Sep16 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 12% 7.50    
4  HARLAN ESTATE Feb18 Jan28 Nov06 Sep19 Aug21 (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00    
5  DASH ATTACK Apr28 Apr08 May14 Apr16 Feb26 (mcpeek kenneth )COHEN DAVID 122 12.00 8% 11.90    
6  VIVAR Apr15 Feb22 Jan21 Oct21 Sep05 (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 4.50 35% 1.90    
7  FENWICK STATION Apr20 Mar24 Apr22 Mar19 Feb10 (kenneally edd)VELAZQUEZ R 122 12.00    
8  TIBERIUS MERCURIUS Apr20 Mar11 Feb04 Jan20 Dec11 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 20% 3.90    
9  VINTAGE PRINT Oct23 Sep28 Aug26 Jul15   (lobo pau)RODRIGUEZ A 117 5.00 ★    
SCR  ELEVEN CENTRAL Apr15 Nov13 Sep30 Aug13 Jul09 (lobo pau)SANTANA JR 122 1.80    
 
CD-6   05/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVERYOTHERWON Mar10 Jan20 Dec15 Nov24 Oct27 (lauer micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
2  INVALUABLE Apr13 Jan04 Dec08 Nov12 Oct14 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 53% 0.90    
3  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Apr12 Mar02 Feb15 Jan07 Dec31 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
4  LI'L GRAZEN Apr22 Feb12 Jan20 Nov15 Oct14 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 118 2.00 11% 8.40    
5  LA CUMPARSITA Apr13 Mar23 Mar11 Feb22 Jan27 (hester haley)BECKMAN ALICE 111 15.00    
6  PRINCESSTAPITURE Apr13 Mar04 Jan20 Dec15 Nov30 (andrade hugo)MARCANO Y 111 10.00 ★    
SCR  DISCERNMENT Mar04 Feb07 Jan25 Dec27 Nov30 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 3.00 15% 5.70    
 
CD-7   05/11/2023 6270ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIN WHEEL Apr12 Jun04 Apr29 Mar12 Feb05 (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 124 12.00    
2  MASTER GAME Apr15 Feb21 Jan19 Dec08 Oct26 (forster t)GRAHAM J 124 12.00    
SCR  REDEEMER Oct12 Aug28 Jul30     (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
4  GIANT GAME Apr01 Feb25 Jan13 Mar12 Feb05 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.00 22% 3.60    
5  TIWANAKU Mar26 Nov02 Oct01 Sep03 Jul22 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00 ★    
SCR  BRIGHT SPARK Apr19 Feb25 Feb04 Dec31 Dec09 (flint bernar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 30.00    
7  PRINCIPE D'ORO Apr15 Feb25 Apr02 Jan15   (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 124 2.50 55% 0.80    
8  COUSIN LARRY Mar26 Feb25 Jan19 Nov06 Oct13 (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 15.00    
SCR  INTERLOCK EMPIRE Apr22 Apr01 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
10  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Oct22 Oct01 Aug24 Jul22 Jun03 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00 ★    
11  BOLZY Apr22 Mar23 Mar02 Feb10   (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 126 15.00    
12  O CAPTAIN Apr01 Mar04 May07 Apr02 Mar05 (delgado g)TORRES A 124 5.00 ★    
SCR  B MINOR May06 Apr23 Mar30 Mar09 Nov26 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   05/11/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AMERICAN HERO Apr13 Mar11 Feb11 Jan21 Dec17 (flint bern)HERNANDEZ J 124 12.00    
2  STONEVICIOUS Apr08 Mar18 Feb25 Jan28 Jan01 (foster eric)GRAHAM J 124 12.00 9% 10.80    
3  JOHNY'S FIREBALL Feb22 Jan14 Feb25     (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 124 4.50    
SCR  FLOKI'S FLIGHT Mar30 Jan07 Nov27 Nov09 Sep25 (romans d)SANTANA JR 124 3.50 23% 3.40    
5  CARMICHAEL Feb05 Nov23 Oct27 Aug16 Jun19 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00    
6  LONG CROW Apr08 Mar03 Apr23 Mar12 Feb11 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 9% 9.90    
7  UNINVITED GUEST Apr23 Feb11 Jan15 Nov24 Oct19 (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 124 6.00    
SCR  COOL RAGS Apr27 Mar30 Mar11 Feb22 Jan21 (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.00 28% 2.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.