Handicappers' Race Results

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Ellis Park
Thursday - June 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (3/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $22.54 $22.54 16.54
ELP-2   Win (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 1 $4.52 $4.52 0.52
ELP-3   Win (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $35.60  
ELP-4   Win (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $3.52 $3.52  
ELP-5   Win (6/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 0 $5.90  
ELP-6   Win (8/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 0 $22.00  
ELP-7   Win (3/2/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 1 $24.62 $24.62 16.62
ELP-8   Win (6/5/9/8/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 5 1 1 $7.48 $7.48  
ELP-9   Win (12/4/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 12 1 1 $3.48 $3.48  

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   06/29/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:223 :46       :584   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MARKET STREET 2 1 1 1   12 1 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00 5% 17.70 10.27 W
GOTTANEEDFORSPEED 6 2 2 3   22 2 (mccarthy michael)CHUAN MARTIN 119 4.00 4.60  
CAN GROUP 5 3 45 5   5 3 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 2.48  
OZONE 4 6 33 2   32 4 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 17% 4.90 1.27  
THANKS FRANK 1 4 67 47   47 5 (von donni)GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00 9.55  
MAGICAL MONARCH 3 5 5 6   610½ 616½ (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50 41% 1.40 7.14  
 
ELP-2   06/29/2023 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:241 :471 1:111 1:37   1:501   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PADDINGTON 1 1 1 11 1 18 119½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 34% 1.90 1.26 W
GO CATS 2 3 2 3 33 28 219½ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 41% 1.50 1.62 P
LUNA VIEJA 3 2 4 4 2 38 320¼ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 2.44  
SANT' ANTIMO 4 4 3 21 48 420 440¼ (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 118 10.00 8.93  
SCR  CROSSING               (lauer michael)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
SCR  FIGHT'N READY               (stewart dallas)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
 
ELP-3   06/29/2023 6600ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:244 :492 1:14 1:392   2:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRETTY PROVOCATIVE 2 3 32 43 32 1½ 1 (molloy thomas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 20.00 16.80  
SRI LANKA 1 1 11 11 11 2½ 2 (walsh brendan )GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.60 69% 0.50 0.54 P
SOUTHAMPTON DOCK 5 2 21 21 21 3 3 (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 111 6.00 8% 11.50 5.07 S
DIXIE SUPREME 3 6 5 54 57 510½ 420¾ (murphy cono)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 6.50  
SPUN OATS 4 43 4 32 4 4 521½ (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 5% 19.00 9.54  
ROBIN SAGE 6 53 6 69 614 618½ 641¼ (medina robert)PETERSON FERRIN 118 10.00 7.65  
SCR  DOWHATEVERITTAKES               (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
SCR  FRACING ALLSTAR               (reed r)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
SCR  OKAY FINE               (lynch brian )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
 
ELP-4   06/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:221 :45 :564     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOOD HEART 3 2 1 13   12 1 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.60 41% 1.50 0.76 W
SUPREMELY 4 1 2 23   22 2 (foley greg)LANERIE J 123 3.50 8.77  
RIDER'S SPECIAL 1 3 43 44   3 3 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00 4.13  
MISSIN CURFEW 5 4 3 33   4 4 (diodoro ro)SANTANA JR 118 5.00 5% 19.00 7.94  
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW 2 6 65 55   5 5 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 5.00 32% 2.10 8.60  
VALE 6 5 5 6   612½ 623¾ (combs bentley)GARCIA MARTIN 123 12.00 6.56  
 
ELP-5   06/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:22 :443 1:091     1:154   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
APPEAL DENIED 3 2 1 1½   11 1nk (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.00 1.95  
RAM 6 1 3 31   3 2nk (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 2.50 36% 1.80 3.96 P
LEAGUE OF LEGENDS 4 3 59 57   5 31 (fires h)COURT K 123 6.00 8% 11.00 8.91 S
MIDASWELLRUN 1 6 43 42   21 4 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 123 6.00 6.39  
AMANI'S EAGLE 2 4 2 2½   4 53 (barkley jason)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00 4.26  
EMPERADOR 5 5 610 68   69 6 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 125 3.00 32% 2.10 3.07  
 
ELP-6   06/29/2023 7920ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:251 :493 1:143 1:391 2:033 2:154   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOWLER BLUE 4 2½ 2½ 2½ 1nk 1 12 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 124 20.00 10.00  
O CAPTAIN 3 4 32 32 3½ 2 22 (delgado gus)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 6.00 5% 19.00 1.51 P
IDRATHERBEBLESSED 2 1½ 1½ 1½ 2nk 3 312½ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00 11.18  
JARREAU 6 53 6 64 5 511 421½ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 67% 0.50 1.61  
ALWAYS ABOVE 1 6 5 54 4 611¼ 522 (nihei michelle)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 10.00 7% 13.40 3.31  
EL AHIJADO 5 31 42 4 64 411 623 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 117 30.00 34.95  
SCR  KING CURLIN               (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 124 10.00    
SCR  MONJID               (mckeever andre)GEROUX FLORENT 124 10.00    
SCR  MOON CAT               (davis christop)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
SCR  MOUNT RUNDLE               (nihei mich)RODRIGUEZ A 119 2.50    
SCR  TRENDING               (mcgaughey ii)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50    
 
ELP-7   06/29/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:233 :462 1:102 1:224   1:354   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CAN'T HUSH THIS 4 1 1 13 13 1 13 (morse l)CHUAN MARTIN 124 8.00 5% 19.00 11.31 W
DEPUTY CONNECT 3 2 3 3 34 2 23 (cox h)SANTANA JR 124 2.00 42% 1.40 6.36 P
WHAT'S UP DOC 2 4 710¼ 710½ 7 4 3 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 126 2.50 34% 2.00 1.12 S
SECRET POCKET 1 3 6 67 6 510½ 4 (peitz c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 10.55  
JUDO 6 5 2 23 23 36 510¼ (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 8.35  
I RUN 5 6 5 55 58 712½ 618½ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 5% 19.00 3.52  
DUAL MONARCHY 7 7 44 4 47 612½ 718¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 8.09  
 
ELP-8   06/29/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 3 F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:24 :473 1:12 1:364   1:494   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY 5 2 2nk 1½ 1nk 1 17 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 24% 3.10 2.74 W
BRU NA BOINNE 9 3 1nk 2½ 2nk 2 27 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 15% 5.70 8.52 P
PEAK POPULARITY 6 5 8 8 7 6 311 (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 28% 2.60 9.10 S
SHOPLIFTER 2 1 7 7 5 3 412½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 8.00 11.92  
MUSTANG LADY 1 4 4 3 4 4 513¾ (newton troy)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 9.19  
MAGIC BUBBLES 4 8 5 4 3 57 623½ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 5% 19.00 1.91  
10  NOMADIC PRIDE 10 12 1212¼ 1011 8 712½ 724¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 61.16  
UNSTABLE PRINCESS 8 9 9 1214½ 1215¼ 817½ 829½ (santamaria carlos)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 14.39  
EMBRACE ME 3 10 1111¼ 1114 1115¼ 918½ 931½ (catalano wayne )GILLIGAN JACK 118 20.00 29.88  
DEMI 7 11 10 9 9 1018¾ 1033¼ (stuart shea)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00 45.31  
11  TITUBA 11 6 31 52 6 1121¾ 1150 (pletcher t)SANTANA JR 118 12.00 22.19  
12  DESERT TEMPEST 12 7 6 64 1010¼ 1231¾ 1299¾ (walsh p)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00 21.42  
SCR  STELLAR LADY               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00    
 
ELP-9   06/29/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:222 :451 :58     1:044   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  ANNA'S ARABESQUE 7 6 2nk 1nk   1½ 1 (bauer a)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.40 73% 0.40 0.74 W
PROUD MARY 2 7 4 35   3 2 (thomas jonatha)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00 8.70 P
RUBY TAP 6 2 1nk 2nk   2½ 3 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 4.88  
SWEET CURALINA 4 5 69 5   48 4 (wilkes ian )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 15.00 5% 19.00 12.91  
SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL 1 1 3 4   5 58 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 4.24  
STEEL RACER 5 4 5 610½   611½ 612¼ (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00 5% 19.00 12.88  
GOLD TICKET 3 3 7 713   713½ 717¼ (peitz c)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00 30.74  
SCR  ALL I WANT IS YOU               (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50    
SCR  BOPPY               (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.00    
SCR  CANDY BAR               (calhoun wil)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
SCR  CRIMALDI               (foley greg)LANERIE J 124 15.00    
SCR  MIRUS               (catalano wayne )GILLIGAN JACK 118 15.00    
SCR  MY LILY MAE               (kinmon keith)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 3.50    
SCR  SCATLIE               (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.