Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Thursday - June 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (3/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/2)-(3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/2)-(3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/4/2)-(3/1)-(1/6/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/1)-(1/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1)-(1/6/5)-(3/2/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ELP-3   WIN (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/5)-(1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/5)-(3/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5)-(3/2/5)-(6/5/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-4   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(6/5/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5)-(6/5/4)-(8/2/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-5   WIN (6/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/4)-(6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/4)-(8/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/5/4)-(8/2/4)-(3/2/5/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-6   WIN (8/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/4)-(8/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/2/4)-(8/2/4)-(8/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/2/4)-(3/2/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/2/4)-(3/2/5/4)-(6/5/9/8/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-7   WIN (3/2/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/5/4)-(3/2/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/5/4)-(3/2/5/4)-(3/2/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/5/4)-(6/5/9/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5/4)-(6/5/9/8/4)-(12/4/7/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-8   WIN (6/5/9/8/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/5/9/8/4)-(6/5/9/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/5/9/8/4)-(6/5/9/8/4)-(6/5/9/8/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/5/9/8/4)-(12/4/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (12/4/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/4/7/8)-(12/4/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (12/4/7/8)-(12/4/7/8)-(12/4/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   06/29/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THANKS FRANK         (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SYDNEY FREEMAN by TIZWAY)
2  MARKET STREET         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00 5% 17.70    
  (by STREET SENSE out of QUALITY WAY by QUALITY ROAD)
3  MAGICAL MONARCH         (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50 41% 1.40    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of MECANIQUE by MARIA'S MON)
4  OZONE         (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 17% 4.90    
  (by MITOLE out of JERSEY JULES by SCAT DADDY)
5  CAN GROUP         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of BLUE GALLINA by STREET SENSE)
6  GOTTANEEDFORSPEED         (mccarthy micha)CHUAN MARTIN 119 4.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of HEALTHY ADDICTION by BOSTON HARBOR)
 
ELP-2   06/29/2023 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PADDINGTON May27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 34% 1.90    
SCR  CROSSING May26 May11 Mar12 Jan27 Jan01 (lauer mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 5.00    
3  GO CATS Apr22 Mar11       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 41% 1.50    
4  LUNA VIEJA Jun02 Apr14 Jan28 Dec31   (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50    
SCR  FIGHT'N READY Jun02 Apr14 Feb18 Jan21 Dec08 (stewart dalla)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
6  SANT' ANTIMO         (hiles je)SANTANA JR 118 10.00    
 
ELP-3   06/29/2023 6600ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SRI LANKA May29 Jan29 Dec11     (walsh brenda)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.60 69% 0.50    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE May29 Jan22       (molloy thoma)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 20.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of PRETTY PROLIFIC by LION HEART)
SCR  FRACING ALLSTAR Feb15         (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of DANCING ALLSTAR by MILLENNIUM ALLSTAR)
4  DIXIE SUPREME May29 May18 Mar09     (murphy co)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of CODETTA by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  SPUN OATS Jun08 May22 Mar24 Mar10 Feb12 (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MORE OATS PLEASE by SMART STRIKE)
6  SOUTHAMPTON DOCK Jun08 Dec03 Oct04 Sep10   (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 111 6.00 8% 11.50    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of VALSEUSE by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  DOWHATEVERITTAKES Mar31         (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of CAT ON A TIN ROOF by CATIENUS)
SCR  OKAY FINE May13 Apr19 Feb12 Jan05 Nov26 (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
9  ROBIN SAGE May24 May03 Apr07 Feb22 Jan13 (medina robe)PETERSON FERRIN 118 10.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of GAME FAIR by QUIET AMERICAN)
 
ELP-4   06/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIDER'S SPECIAL Jun10 May21 Apr29 Apr01 Jun04 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00    
2  CONSTITUTIONAL LAW May28 Feb21 Dec23 Dec04 Oct20 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 5.00 32% 2.10    
3  GOOD HEART Jun15 Apr28 Mar04 Nov26 Oct08 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.60 41% 1.50    
4  SUPREMELY Jun10 May19 Apr21 Mar22 Feb11 (foley greg)LANERIE J 123 3.50    
5  MISSIN CURFEW Apr28 Apr07 Mar12 Jan15 Jun26 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
6  VALE May21 Mar18 Feb12 Jan13 Nov23 (combs bentley)GARCIA MARTIN 123 12.00    
 
ELP-5   06/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDASWELLRUN Jun10 May19 Nov19 Oct19 Sep01 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 123 6.00    
2  AMANI'S EAGLE May26 May12 Apr13 Nov12 Oct22 (barkley jaso)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00    
3  APPEAL DENIED May21 Apr21 Feb12 Nov25 Nov04 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.00    
4  LEAGUE OF LEGENDS Apr28 Apr16 Apr02 Mar19 Feb18 (fires h)COURT K 123 6.00 8% 11.00    
5  EMPERADOR Jun04 Jan06 Oct14 Jan22   (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 125 3.00 32% 2.10    
6  RAM Jun01 May13 Apr16 Mar31 Mar17 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 2.50 36% 1.80    
 
ELP-6   06/29/2023 7920ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MONJID May19 Apr27 Mar01 Jan22 Nov30 (mckeever and)GEROUX FLORENT 124 10.00    
2  ALWAYS ABOVE May13 Apr19 Nov04 Oct09 Sep05 (nihei mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 10.00 7% 13.40    
3  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Jun11 May28 Apr26 Mar12 Jan29 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
4  O CAPTAIN May11 Apr01 Mar04 May07 Apr02 (delgado g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  FOWLER BLUE May13 Mar25 Jul09 May30 May08 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 124 20.00    
SCR  TRENDING May13 Mar30 Mar05 Jun30 Jun03 (mcgaughey claude )SAEZ LUIS 124 3.50    
7  EL AHIJADO May20 Apr19 Mar30 Mar04 Dec30 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 117 30.00    
8  JARREAU May13 Apr12 Sep05 Jul27 Jun18 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 67% 0.50    
SCR  KING CURLIN May28 Apr27 Mar25 Dec31 Dec03 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 10.00    
SCR  MOUNT RUNDLE May20 Apr19 Mar10 Oct26 Sep05 (nihei mi)RODRIGUEZ A 119 2.50    
SCR  MOON CAT May17 Apr21 Mar11 Feb04 Jan07 (davis christ)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
 
ELP-7   06/29/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET POCKET Jun02 Apr29 Mar24 Feb01 Nov19 (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
2  WHAT'S UP DOC Jun18 Jun04 Jul16 Jun17   (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 126 2.50 34% 2.00    
3  DEPUTY CONNECT Mar02 Jan27 May03 Mar13 Feb12 (cox brad)SANTANA JR 124 2.00 42% 1.40    
4  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jun10 Jan08 Dec11 Nov23 Oct27 (morse l)CHUAN MARTIN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  I RUN May26         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  JUDO May20 Apr16 Mar09 Jan14 Sep16 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50    
7  DUAL MONARCHY May14 Apr08 Mar04 Feb02 Jan05 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
 
ELP-8   06/29/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 3 F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUSTANG LADY May12 Apr07 Jan12 Nov27 Oct07 (newton troy)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
2  SHOPLIFTER May29 Apr16 Feb25 Nov04 Sep17 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
3  EMBRACE ME May29 Apr14 Feb10 Dec22 Nov19 (catalano way)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00    
4  MAGIC BUBBLES Jun02 Apr29 Apr07 Mar17 Feb24 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY Jun02 Apr01 Mar05 Feb09 Dec31 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 24% 3.10    
6  PEAK POPULARITY Apr29 Mar26 Aug21     (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 28% 2.60    
7  DEMI May12 Feb11 Jan20 Dec17 Nov19 (stuart she)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
8  UNSTABLE PRINCESS May12 Apr22 Apr07 Mar17 Feb24 (santamaria carlos)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  BRU NA BOINNE Mar25 Feb17 Jan28 Dec23 Nov26 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 15% 5.70    
10  NOMADIC PRIDE May29 Mar25 Feb24 Dec01 Oct30 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
11  TITUBA Apr28 Mar12 Jan29 Nov24   (pletcher)SANTANA JR 118 12.00    
12  DESERT TEMPEST Jun02 Apr27 Mar18 Feb05 Oct15 (walsh bren)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00    
SCR  STELLAR LADY Jun06 May05 Mar25 Mar05 Feb04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00    
 
ELP-9   06/29/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MIRUS Jun03 May20 Aug07     (catalano wayn)GILLIGAN JACK 118 15.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of FARRELL by MALIBU MOON)
2  SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL Jun02 May13 Apr21 Mar11 Feb11 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MY PAIGE'S JEWEL by FOREST WILDCAT)
SCR  CRIMALDI May14 Mar16 Feb16 Nov18   (foley greg)LANERIE J 124 15.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of JOSAKA by SMART STRIKE)
4  PROUD MARY         (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of ABSOLUTE CRACKERS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  GOLD TICKET Apr22 Mar11       (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of NO JOKE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  MY LILY MAE May24 Mar31 Mar11 Aug14 Jul29 (kinmon keith)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 3.50    
  (by SKY MESA out of ABSOLUTELY CINDY by ARCH)
7  SWEET CURALINA Mar12 Feb12 Jan21 Nov25   (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CURLIN out of SWEET TAPPER by TAPIT)
8  STEEL RACER Jun11 Sep29       (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GIRVIN out of SILVER TO GOLD by ZENSATIONAL)
9  RUBY TAP May20         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
  (by TAPIT out of MAJESTIC JEWEL by CINDAGO)
SCR  BOPPY May29 Mar25       (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.00    
  (by BLAME out of DARING DANCER by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  SCATLIE Jun02         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CANA by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
12  ANNA'S ARABESQUE Jun02 May03 Mar08     (bauer philip)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.40 73% 0.40    
  (by MUNNINGS out of CLASSY MUSIC by MACLEAN'S MUSIC)
SCR  ALL I WANT IS YOU Apr23         (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50    
  (by THE FACTOR out of CANDY SIOUX by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  CANDY BAR         (calhoun w)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of SUGAR BABE by QUIET AMERICAN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.