Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-2   EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00  6-4 $21.70 $9.70 81%
CD-4   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00  6 $5.06 $1.06 27%
CD-6   WIN (10/2/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00  10 $11.02 $5.02 84%
    EXA (10/2/9)-(10/2/9/3/5) 12 $2.00 $24.00  10-3 $61.46 $37.46 156%
CD-7   DD (10/2/9)-(4/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00  10-7 $26.82 $17.82 198%
CD-8   EXA (3/4/7)-(3/4/7/9/8) 12 $2.00 $24.00  4-7 $47.00 $23.00 96%
    PK3 (10/2/9)-(4/7/1)-(3/4/7) 27 $0.50 $13.50  10-7-4 $25.78 $12.28 91%
CD-9   WIN (10/9/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00  9 $13.58 $5.58 70%
    DD (3/4/7)-(10/9/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00  4-9 $20.24 $8.24 69%
    PK3 (4/7/1)-(3/4/7)-(10/9/7/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00  7-4-9 $26.72 $8.72 48%
    PK4 (10/2/9)-(4/7/1)-(3/4/7)-(10/9/7/8) 108 $0.50 $54.00  10-7-4-9 $144.44 $90.44 167%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   05/12/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:23 :464       :594   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  PROGNOSTICATE 7 1 12 13   12½ 1½ (mccutchen )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.00 2.78  
  (by FAST ANNA out of PORTEND by SKY MESA)
4  LIAM'S MESSAGE 4 5 33½ 23   22½ 2½ (gutierrez )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 3.15  
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of LEFT A MESSAGE by MR. GREELEY)
1  STUCK ON YOU 1 4 55 43½   34½ 34¾ (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 114 1.80 41% 1.40 1.72 S
  (by COMPETITIVE EDGE out of ROSE PEDALS by STREET CRY (IRE))
3  WRECK IT RUBY 3 2 22 33   44½ 46 (holsapple)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 6% 15.70 19.85  
  (by MASTERY out of TARE GREEN by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  BOOMIN' BELLE 6 7 76½ 67   66 56¼ (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.00 5.17  
  (by GET STORMY out of VERA BELLE by NOT FOR LOVE)
2  AFTERNEATH 2 3 43½ 55½   55 67¼ (lightner mary)LANERIE J 119 12.00 6% 15.70 10.67  
  (by DIALED IN out of SEATTLE GIRL by IKARI)
5  REDHEADEDSTRANGER 5 6 66 77½   78½ 711¼ (nesbitt amy)BURGOS ALBERTO 119 12.00 6% 15.70 21.17  
  (by GET STORMY out of TOTAL ECLIPSE by LIL E. TEE)
 
CD-2   05/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:232 :464 1:113 1:372   1:442   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  JUST CALL RAY 6 1 53½ 53 41½ 13½ 14¼ (hiles a)LANERIE J 124 4.00 27% 2.80 1.57 W
4  MADISON LUVS DUKE 4 2 43 31½ 31½ 35½ 24¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 2.50 38% 1.70 3.51 P
2  JAY VEE BEE 2 6 65½ 65 52 23½ 34½ (van t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 3.74  
1  AMANI'S EAGLE 1 5 11 1½ 1½ 45½ 47¾ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 3.50 13% 6.40 4.57  
3  MUGSY MALONE 3 3 21 2½ 2½ 56 59¼ (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 6.00 18.49  
5  TRIGGER HAPPY 5 4 31½ 42 65½ 612 638½ (habeeb dona)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 6.00 5.19  
 
CD-3   05/12/2023 6270ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:242 :49 1:124 1:371   1:563   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LOVED 3 2 1½ 1½ 1½ 15½ 14½ (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 0.80 37% 1.70 0.41 W
4  OPENING NIGHT 4 3 2½ 2½ 2½ 25½ 24½ (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00 8.83  
2  SHE'S KEEN 2 1 32 33½ 45½ 37½ 38½ (arnold r)GRAHAM J 124 3.00 ★ 5.10 S
5  LET'S DUET 5 5 56½ 57½ 58 410 412½ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 35% 1.80 3.88  
1  CHIQUITA MOSCA 1 4 44½ 45½ 35½ 511 515 (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 27.21  
 
CD-4   05/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:211 :441 :561     1:084   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  DIVINE LEADER 5 1 23 21   12½ 18¼ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 49% 1.00 1.53 W
5  AWESOME AARON 4 2 13 11   22½ 28¼ (green tr)RODRIGUEZ A 113 10.00 17.71  
3  NIFTY 2 3 33½ 34   43½ 38¼ (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 2.00 23% 3.40 2.10 S
1  FLINT RIDGE 1 4 56 44½   33½ 48½ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 ★ 1.93  
4  STEINBECK 3 5 45 54½   55½ 512 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 8.88  
SCR  COLTONATOR               (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
 
CD-5   05/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:221 :461 :583     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  COEXIST 9 1 31 3½   2½ 11¾ (hughes g)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 4.20  
7  JACKIE'S SPIRIT 7 3 1nk 1½   1½ 21¾ (vaccarezza ca)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.50 59% 0.70 4.35 P
1  DIVINE GRACE 1 5 75¼ 86¾   65½ 34¼ (ewing mi)RODRIGUEZ A 113 8.00 ★ 8.11 S
6  AMENSET 6 4 63¾ 42   33 45½ (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.00 ★ 7.28  
5  DREAM TRAP 5 9 85¾ 74¾   75½ 510¾ (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00 ★ 10.19  
3  ZIPPIN PIPPIN 3 7 41½ 52¼   44½ 612¾ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 5.00 8.15  
4  GORMLEYESQUE 4 6 51¾ 62¼   86½ 713¼ (delong be)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 10.00 11.13  
8  BRISBANE ROAD 8 2 2nk 2½   55 816 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 12.91  
2  SHACKLED BY LUST 2 8 97¼ 912¾   915½ 933¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 11% 7.90 2.99  
 
CD-6   05/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:241 :48 1:123 1:381   1:45   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  TUSKEGEE CAT 10 4 32 31½ 11 11 12½ (miller kenny)BURGOS ALBERTO 124 3.50 49% 1.00 4.51 W
3  BATUKHAN (IRE) 3 2 42½ 43½ 32½ 21 22½ (diodoro r)TORRES A 124 4.50 ★ 6.68 P
6  YONO 6 5 54 54½ 54 34 34¾ (estvanko richard)MOJICA O 124 20.00 12.36  
8  NICHOLAS JONES 8 8 109½ 1011 99 69 47¼ (miller jerome )SAEZ GABRIEL 124 4.00 5.81  
9  TROPIC STORM 9 3 21½ 21 21 44 59½ (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 8.00 11% 8.10 5.84  
2  WICCA WISDOM 2 7 85½ 77½ 66 58 612½ (ramirez m)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 13% 6.90 6.24  
4  WRITEITONTHEICE 4 10 97½ 88½ 76½ 811½ 716½ (fernandez edwa)REYES R 124 10.00 30.11  
7  PAID IN FULL 7 1 11½ 11 43½ 79½ 817½ (hartlage g)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 10.00 11.19  
1  BORN FLAWLESS 1 6 64½ 98½ 1014 1017 928 (heitzman eric)GRAHAM J 118 30.00 25.56  
5  MOTOWN MISSILE 5 9 75½ 67 87 915 1033½ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 ★ 3.11  
 
CD-7   05/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:213 :45 :564     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  FIRE ON TIME 7 1 31½ 1nk   13 16 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.50 18% 4.70 1.81 W
5  STELLA NOIR 5 7 65 65½   65½ 26 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 8.00 10.61  
6  BOUDOIR BURLESQUE 6 4 54 53   55 36¾ (decker a)RODRIGUEZ A 116 20.00 33.39  
4  GOLDEN BELL 4 2 2½ 2nk   23 47¼ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 37% 1.70 2.63  
1  PRINCEDREAMCESS 1 5 41½ 42½   44½ 58¼ (shirer ma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.00 17% 4.90 3.32  
3  READY FOR CHANGE 3 6 75¼ 78½   78½ 612 (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 6.00 8.83  
2  ALTERED SHOT 2 3 1½ 3½   34½ 713¾ (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 ★ 6.46  
 
CD-8   05/12/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3 F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:23 :472 1:12 1:364   1:49   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  STRIKINGLY SPUN 4 6 74¾ 63½ 74¼ 2½ 1¾ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 16% 5.30 2.17 W
7  CLEVER JOKE 7 2 52½ 53 32 1½ 2¾ (catalano way)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 9% 10.20 13.78 P
1  BOLIVIE (IRE) 1 8 64½ 74 64 41½ 31¼ (walsh bren)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00 5.45  
10  UNSTABLE PRINCESS 10 10 1011¾ 1010½ 85¼ 63 42¾ (santamaria carlos)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 26.88  
2  MALAWNIA 2 3 42½ 42½ 42 73½ 55 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 20.00 56.74  
6  C C CRUISE CONTROL 6 1 1½ 1½ 1½ 51½ 65¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 32.78  
8  JENNY LIND 8 7 87¼ 88½ 97¾ 98 76¼ (asmussen)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00 ★ 28.22  
3  ROOT CAUSE 3 4 2½ 2½ 2½ 31 88 (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 49% 1.00 1.16  
9  MUSTANG LADY 9 5 31 32 52½ 86 911 (newton troy)LANERIE J 118 8.00 ★ 12.98  
5  DEMI 5 9 910¼ 910½ 109¼ 1012 1015¾ (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00 41.06  
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE               (leonard g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 30.00    
SCR  DIVINELY BOLT               (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
SCR  KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF               (goldfine )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00    
SCR  LILY'S CREED               (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
SCR  NOMADIC PRIDE               (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
SCR  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY               (shirer mat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
SCR  SHOPLIFTER               (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
 
CD-9   05/12/2023 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:234 :483 1:133 1:40   1:532   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  VAIL OF HONOR 9 3 88 910½ 87½ 32½ 13 (kordenbroc)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 4.00 20% 4.00 5.79 W
10  MAJESTIC FLAG 10 4 21½ 2nk 2½ 1nk 23 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 125 2.00 34% 1.90 1.29 P
5  NOBLE CONNECTION 5 6 44½ 31½ 32½ 43½ 33¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 10.21  
8  LUCKY SMILE 8 5 11½ 1nk 1½ 2nk 45¼ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 125 12.00 6% 16.20 9.27  
1  MIFFLIN 1 8 55 56 65½ 66½ 56 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 10.00 4.49  
2  MAGNA RULER 2 1 32½ 42½ 44 56 68½ (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 125 12.00 ★ 51.01  
7  MATLOCK (IRE) 7 9 98½ 77 54½ 76¾ 79¾ (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 17% 5.00 5.01  
3  STRICKLAND 3 10 1011 1014½ 1012 88¾ 812¾ (brennan terr)CASTILLO ISAAC 125 15.00 51.17  
6  VORTEX (GB) 6 7 67 88 911 1015¾ 919½ (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 118 10.00 26.75  
4  JOHNNY'S MOMENT 4 2 77½ 66½ 77 912¾ 1023½ (warpool sh)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 30.00 50.33  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.