Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/2/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/3/5)-(1/2/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/3/5)-(1/2/3/5)-(1/2/3/5) 24 $1.00 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/3/5)-(4/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3/5)-(4/6/1)-(3/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/1)-(4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/1)-(3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(3/5)-(6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/5)-(3/5/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/5)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 4 $1.00 $2.00 
    DD (3/5)-(6/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (3/5)-(6/3)-(7/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/3)-(6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 4 $1.00 $2.00 
    DD (6/3)-(7/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(7/2)-(10/2/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/2)-(7/2/6/1/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (7/2)-(7/2/6/1/5)-(7/2/6/1/5) 24 $1.00 $12.00 
    DD (7/2)-(10/2/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/2)-(10/2/9)-(4/7/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-6   WIN (10/2/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/2/9)-(10/2/9/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/2/9)-(10/2/9/3/5)-(10/2/9/3/5) 36 $1.00 $18.00 
    DD (10/2/9)-(4/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (10/2/9)-(4/7/1)-(3/4/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/1)-(4/7/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/7/1)-(4/7/1/2)-(4/7/1/2) 18 $1.00 $9.00 
    DD (4/7/1)-(3/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/7/1)-(3/4/7)-(10/9/7/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/7)-(3/4/7/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/7)-(3/4/7/9/8)-(3/4/7/9/8) 36 $1.00 $18.00 
    DD (3/4/7)-(10/9/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/9/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/9/7/8)-(10/9/7/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/9/7/8)-(10/9/7/8/2)-(10/9/7/8/2) 48 $1.00 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/12/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STUCK ON YOU         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 114 1.80 41% 1.40    
  (by COMPETITIVE EDGE out of ROSE PEDALS by STREET CRY (IRE))
2  AFTERNEATH         (lightner mary)LANERIE J 119 12.00 6% 15.70    
  (by DIALED IN out of SEATTLE GIRL by IKARI)
3  WRECK IT RUBY         (holsapple)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 6% 15.70    
  (by MASTERY out of TARE GREEN by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  LIAM'S MESSAGE Apr28         (gutierrez )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of LEFT A MESSAGE by MR. GREELEY)
5  REDHEADEDSTRANGER         (nesbitt amy)MORALES JOSHUA 119 12.00 6% 15.70    
  (by GET STORMY out of TOTAL ECLIPSE by LIL E. TEE)
6  BOOMIN' BELLE         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of VERA BELLE by NOT FOR LOVE)
7  PROGNOSTICATE Apr19         (mccutchen )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of PORTEND by SKY MESA)
 
CD-2   05/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMANI'S EAGLE Apr13 Nov12 Oct22 Sep24 Jul22 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 3.50 13% 6.40    
2  JAY VEE BEE Apr22 Mar25 Feb11 Jan25 Dec30 (van t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00    
3  MUGSY MALONE Mar11 Dec30 Nov18 Nov10 Oct15 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 6.00    
4  MADISON LUVS DUKE Apr26 Mar01 Jan29 Nov23 Nov02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 2.50 38% 1.70    
5  TRIGGER HAPPY Mar22 Mar10 Feb25 Feb03 Nov25 (habeeb dona)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 6.00    
6  JUST CALL RAY Mar10 Feb01 Jan20 Dec24 Sep01 (hiles a)LANERIE J 124 4.00 27% 2.80    
 
CD-3   05/12/2023 6270ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHIQUITA MOSCA Apr28 Apr07 Mar09 Feb16 Jan26 (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
2  SHE'S KEEN Apr14 Feb16 Nov20 Oct02 Aug20 (arnold r)GRAHAM J 124 3.00 ★    
3  LOVED Apr21 Mar13       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 0.80 37% 1.70    
4  OPENING NIGHT Mar26 May04 Feb11     (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
5  LET'S DUET Apr07 Mar04 Feb17 Jan28 Dec18 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 35% 1.80    
 
CD-4   05/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLINT RIDGE Apr16 Feb21 Jan15 Dec08 Oct28 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 ★    
SCR  COLTONATOR Feb12 Dec22 Nov26 Sep25 Jul03 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
3  NIFTY Apr20 Mar24 Feb18     (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 2.00 23% 3.40    
4  STEINBECK Apr08 Mar19 Feb26 Feb10 Dec27 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00    
5  AWESOME AARON Apr08 Mar18 Jan01 Dec16 Nov17 (green tr)RODRIGUEZ A 113 10.00    
6  DIVINE LEADER Apr26 Apr16 Feb17 Feb09 Dec30 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 49% 1.00    
 
CD-5   05/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVINE GRACE Jan24 Dec11 Nov12 Oct13 Aug10 (ewing mi)RODRIGUEZ A 113 8.00 ★    
2  SHACKLED BY LUST Mar30 Jul21 Jun19     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 11% 7.90    
3  ZIPPIN PIPPIN Apr15 Mar26 Mar05 Feb04   (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 5.00    
4  GORMLEYESQUE May02 Apr19 Mar25 Feb15 Aug04 (delong be)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 10.00    
5  DREAM TRAP         (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00 ★    
6  AMENSET Apr13 Mar03 Jan22 Aug26 Jul28 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.00 ★    
7  JACKIE'S SPIRIT Apr08 Mar26 Sep28     (vaccarezza ca)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.50 59% 0.70    
8  BRISBANE ROAD Jul04         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
9  COEXIST Apr19 Aug14       (hughes g)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
 
CD-6   05/12/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BORN FLAWLESS Apr12 Feb20 Jan28 Dec09 Nov19 (heitzman eric)GRAHAM J 118 30.00    
2  WICCA WISDOM Feb19 Oct08 Aug25 Jun02 May07 (ramirez m)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 13% 6.90    
3  BATUKHAN (IRE) Apr01 Mar09 Jan06 Dec03 Oct28 (diodoro r)TORRES A 124 4.50 ★    
4  WRITEITONTHEICE Apr29 Apr13 Mar04 Feb24 Jan28 (fernandez edwa)REYES R 124 10.00    
5  MOTOWN MISSILE Mar19 Feb24 Jan20 Nov24 Oct28 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 ★    
6  YONO Apr20 Mar04 Feb11 Jan25 Dec29 (estvanko richard)MOJICA O 124 20.00    
7  PAID IN FULL Mar25 Feb26 Feb17 Dec18 Nov25 (hartlage g)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 10.00    
8  NICHOLAS JONES Apr29 Apr12 Mar25 Mar04 Feb08 (miller jerome )SAEZ GABRIEL 124 4.00    
9  TROPIC STORM Apr18 Mar25 Feb17 Jan28 Dec31 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 8.00 11% 8.10    
10  TUSKEGEE CAT Apr13 Mar17 Feb24 Feb04 Jan28 (miller kenny)BURGOS ALBERTO 124 3.50 49% 1.00    
 
CD-7   05/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCEDREAMCESS Apr21 Mar16 Feb26 Jan01 Nov30 (shirer ma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.00 17% 4.90    
2  ALTERED SHOT Mar17 Feb24 Jan28 Dec15 Nov20 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 ★    
3  READY FOR CHANGE Mar04 Jan14 Dec17 Nov10 Sep25 (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 6.00    
4  GOLDEN BELL Aug01 May15       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 37% 1.70    
5  STELLA NOIR Mar25 Feb18 Jan13 Oct29 Sep30 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 8.00    
6  BOUDOIR BURLESQUE Apr16 Mar28 Mar16 Aug09 Jul18 (decker a)RODRIGUEZ A 116 20.00    
7  FIRE ON TIME Mar11 Jan28 Dec03 Nov20 Jun09 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.50 18% 4.70    
 
CD-8   05/12/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3 F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOLIVIE (IRE) Mar25         (walsh bren)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00    
2  MALAWNIA Jan12 Dec03 Sep17 Aug13 Jul01 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
3  ROOT CAUSE Mar19 Aug14       (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 49% 1.00    
4  STRIKINGLY SPUN Apr14 Feb04 Dec09 Nov04   (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 16% 5.30    
5  DEMI Feb11 Jan20 Dec17 Nov19   (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
6  C C CRUISE CONTROL Apr14 Oct28 Oct07 Sep03 Aug14 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
7  CLEVER JOKE Mar09 Dec03 Aug28     (catalano way)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 9% 10.20    
8  JENNY LIND Feb23 Feb01 Nov18     (asmussen)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00 ★    
9  MUSTANG LADY Apr07 Jan12 Nov27 Oct07 Sep03 (newton troy)LANERIE J 118 8.00 ★    
10  UNSTABLE PRINCESS Apr22 Apr07 Mar17 Feb24 Feb03 (santamaria carlos)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
SCR  KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF Apr14 Feb18 Nov26 Oct07 Sep03 (goldfine )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00    
SCR  DIVINELY BOLT Apr22 Mar05 Feb03 Jan21 Nov25 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
SCR  LILY'S CREED Apr27 Mar24 Feb28 Feb09 Jan25 (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE Apr28 Apr13 Mar24 Mar05 Feb18 (leonard g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 30.00    
SCR  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY Apr01 Mar05 Feb09 Dec31 Nov18 (shirer mat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
SCR  SHOPLIFTER Apr16 Feb25 Nov04 Sep17 Aug14 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
SCR  NOMADIC PRIDE Mar25 Feb24 Dec01 Oct30 Sep30 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
 
CD-9   05/12/2023 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIFFLIN Apr01         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 10.00    
2  MAGNA RULER Mar19 Mar05 Feb15 Jan20 Jan11 (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 125 12.00 ★    
3  STRICKLAND Mar23 Mar03 Feb19 Jan22 Dec11 (brennan terr)CASTILLO ISAAC 125 15.00    
4  JOHNNY'S MOMENT Apr15 Mar31 Mar17 Feb15 Feb02 (warpool sh)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 30.00    
5  NOBLE CONNECTION Apr14 Mar10 Jul30     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
6  VORTEX (GB) Mar11 Feb10       (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 118 10.00    
7  MATLOCK (IRE) Apr26 Mar10 Feb10     (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 17% 5.00    
8  LUCKY SMILE Apr22 Mar11 Sep15     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 125 12.00 6% 16.20    
9  VAIL OF HONOR Mar11 Feb10 Jan11 Jan15   (kordenbroc)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 4.00 20% 4.00    
10  MAJESTIC FLAG Mar12 Jan13 Dec18 Nov02 Sep18 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 125 2.00 34% 1.90    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.