The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 
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Ellis Park
Friday - July 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
ELP-1   Win (2/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $39.44 -6.00
    Exacta (2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 4-6 2 0 $162.98 -12.00
    Trifecta (2/3/6)-(2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 4-6-1 3 0 $113.36 -3.00
ELP-2   Win (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $22.68 -6.00
    Exacta (3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 4-3 2 0 $100.72 -12.00
    Trifecta (3/5/6)-(3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 4-3-5 3 0 $61.56 -3.00
    Daily Double (2/3/6)-(3/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 4-4 2 0 $125.67 -9.00
ELP-3   Win (4/5/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $6.48 $6.48 -1.52
    Exacta (4/5/8/9)-(4/5/8/9) 12 $2.00 $24.00 5-3 2 0 $27.38 -24.00
    Trifecta (4/5/8/9)-(4/5/8/9)-(4/5/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 5-3-9 3 0 $140.39 -12.00
    Daily Double (3/5/6)-(4/5/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 4-5 2 0 $55.03 -12.00
    Pick Three (2/3/6)-(3/5/6)-(4/5/8/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 4-4-5 3 0 $537.99 -18.00
ELP-4   Win (2/3/5/12/13) 5 $2.00 $10.00 2 1 1 $5.92 $5.92 -4.08
    Exacta (2/3/5/12/13)-(2/3/5/12/13) 20 $2.00 $40.00 2-13 2 1 $42.08 $42.08 2.08
    Trifecta (2/3/5/12/13)-(2/3/5/12/13)-(2/3/5/12/13) 60 $0.50 $30.00 2-13-7 3 0 $203.21 -30.00
    Daily Double (4/5/8/9)-(2/3/5/12/13) 20 $1.00 $20.00 5-2 2 1 $12.44 $12.44 -7.56
    Pick Three (3/5/6)-(4/5/8/9)-(2/3/5/12/13) 60 $0.50 $30.00 4-5-2 3 0 $80.26 -30.00
ELP-5   Win (1/2/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 0 $14.42 -8.00
    Exacta (1/2/5/7)-(1/2/5/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 4-3 2 0 $105.76 -24.00
    Trifecta (1/2/5/7)-(1/2/5/7)-(1/2/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 4-3-1 3 0 $73.91 -12.00
    Daily Double (2/3/5/12/13)-(1/2/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 2-4 2 0 $38.18 -20.00
    Pick Three (4/5/8/9)-(2/3/5/12/13)-(1/2/5/7) 80 $0.50 $40.00 5-2-4 3 0 $65.49 -40.00
ELP-6   Win (3/6/7/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 1 $4.50 $4.50 -5.50
    Exacta (3/6/7/8/9)-(3/6/7/8/9) 20 $2.00 $40.00 7-1 2 0 $30.96 -40.00
    Trifecta (3/6/7/8/9)-(3/6/7/8/9)-(3/6/7/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 7-1-6 3 0 $32.27 -30.00
    Daily Double (1/2/5/7)-(3/6/7/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 4-7 2 0 $25.97 -20.00
    Pick Three (2/3/5/12/13)-(1/2/5/7)-(3/6/7/8/9) 100 $0.50 $50.00 2-4-7 3 0 $50.50 -50.00
ELP-7   Win (1/5/6/9/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 0 $12.56 -10.00
    Exacta (1/5/6/9/10)-(1/5/6/9/10) 20 $2.00 $40.00 4-6 2 0 $80.94 -40.00
    Trifecta (1/5/6/9/10)-(1/5/6/9/10)-(1/5/6/9/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 4-6-8 3 0 $138.35 -30.00
    Daily Double (3/6/7/8/9)-(1/5/6/9/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 7-4 2 0 $15.74 -25.00
    Pick Three (1/2/5/7)-(3/6/7/8/9)-(1/5/6/9/10) 100 $0.50 $50.00 4-7-4 3 0 $76.97 -50.00
ELP-8   Win (1/3/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $18.30 -8.00
    Exacta (1/3/4/6)-(1/3/4/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00 2-4 2 0 $121.96 -24.00
    Trifecta (1/3/4/6)-(1/3/4/6)-(1/3/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 2-4-8 3 0 $188.23 -12.00
    Daily Double (1/5/6/9/10)-(1/3/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 4-2 2 0 $54.47 -20.00
    Pick Three (3/6/7/8/9)-(1/5/6/9/10)-(1/3/4/6) 100 $0.50 $50.00 7-4-2 3 0 $43.33 -50.00
ELP-9   Win (4/5/6/7/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 1 1 0 $6.92 -10.00
    Exacta (4/5/6/7/9)-(4/5/6/7/9) 20 $2.00 $40.00 1-7 2 0 $28.34 -40.00
    Trifecta (4/5/6/7/9)-(4/5/6/7/9)-(4/5/6/7/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 1-7-5 3 0 $27.04 -30.00
    Daily Double (1/3/4/6)-(4/5/6/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 2-1 2 0 $34.14 -20.00
    Pick Three (1/5/6/9/10)-(1/3/4/6)-(4/5/6/7/9) 100 $0.50 $50.00 4-2-1 3 0 $91.87 -50.00
    Pick Three (1/5/6/9/10)-(1/3/4/6)-(4/5/6/7/9) 100 $3.00 $300.00 2-4-1 3 0 $532.26 -300.00
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
:251 :484 1:132 1:262   1:394   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  NAVY SOUL 4 4 3½ 53½ 53½ 63½ 1¼ (pittman bo)RODRIGUEZ A 118 12.00 18.72  
6  BATUKHAN (IRE) 6 5 41½ 42 43 22 2¼ (newton troy)TORRES A 123 2.00 27% 2.70 2.61 P
1  CRONUS 1 6 51¾ 2½ 1½ 12 32¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 123 4.50 3.05  
3  TROPIC STORM 3 1 1nk 31½ 32½ 53 42½ (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 123 5.00 16% 5.20 2.65  
2  BLAME SHIFTER 2 3 63¼ 64 64½ 42½ 56½ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 118 4.50 20% 4.00 2.67  
5  NOTION 5 2 2nk 1½ 2½ 32½ 613 (lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 9.82  
 
ELP-2   07/21/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
:23 :462 :591     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  CRAVENSWORTH 4 4 45½ 57½   33 12¾ (moquett e)NAVAS YOEL 112 6.00 10.34  
3  MR. COMMANDER 3 3 1½ 2nk   11½ 22¾ (king l)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.00 10% 9.00 3.57 P
5  THE BIG MOZZ 5 5 69 46½   56½ 33 (trujillo elvis)STEVENS C 124 4.50 30% 2.30 4.37 S
2  REDHILL 2 6 58½ 68   46½ 45½ (pittman bo)RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00 12.68  
6  KING OF KENTUCKY 6 1 2½ 1nk   21½ 57¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 1.80 35% 1.80 0.84  
1  RANSAM PAYNTER 1 2 32½ 36   68½ 619 (hewitt mich)TORRES A 119 4.00 8.44  
 
ELP-3   07/21/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
:232 :473 1:122     1:254   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  PASS THE HAT 5 2 21 2½   11½ 11 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 26% 2.90 2.24 W
3  OMEX 3 7 74 74½   34 21 (walsh p)CHUAN MARTIN 119 4.00 5.42  
9  NUEVO AMANECER 8 1 11 1½   21½ 35 (bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 114 20.00 5% 19.00 25.95 S
2  PHREDDIE MAC 2 6 63 53   56 46 (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 6.00 3.79  
1  LEAD FOOT 1 5 53 63   66 56½ (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 11.60  
4  MENA 4 4 31½ 31½   76¼ 67½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 32% 2.10 3.18  
8  WARNING SIGNS 7 3 42 42   45½ 79¾ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00 5% 19.00 11.54  
6  TENNESSEE LAMB 6 8 85 84¾   88¾ 815 (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 12.00 8.52  
SCR  HEY JOE JOE               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
 
ELP-4   07/21/2023 5610ft TURF FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
:242 :49 1:141 1:384   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  JUST A PHOTO 2 3 43 54¼ 53¼ 52¼ 11½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 24% 3.10 1.96 W
13  SIX MISSIONS 11 8 32½ 33½ 31½ 21½ 21½ (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 29% 2.50 6.59 P
7  SOUTHERN CRUSH 6 6 2½ 2nk 1nk 11½ 31½ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 26.99  
1  FIGHT'N READY 1 1 76 107¾ 84½ 74¼ 42 (stewart dallas)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 3.51  
3  CURLINS INCHARGE 3 2 65 85¾ 94½ 31½ 52¼ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.00 17% 5.00 4.80  
12  TRICOLOUR 10 9 87 43¾ 41¾ 62¼ 64 (miller kenny)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 10.00 9% 10.60 8.79  
8  COAL BOSS 7 7 54½ 65¼ 73½ 84¾ 75¾ (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 20.72  
5  SELF RULE 4 5 109 96¾ 116 96¾ 88¼ (preston randy)CALLEJA ANDRES 114 20.00 5% 19.00 30.98  
6  SAPELO SOUND 5 4 1½ 1nk 2nk 42 98½ (lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 12.00 38.13  
11  SILVER RALEIGH 9 10 119 1110¾ 105 108¾ 1011¾ (beckman wh)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 32.44  
9  CHANCE 8 11 98½ 75¼ 63¼ 1111¼ 1117½ (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 11.48  
SCR  CREATIVE WAY               (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
SCR  FIGHTERTOWN               (amoss m)GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
SCR  PITAGORE               (engler jeff)LANERIE J 124 12.00    
 
ELP-5   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
:233 :463 1:12 1:25   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SEVEN FLAT 4 4 44½ 44 1½ 11 1¼ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 6.21  
3  PRINCELY 3 3 67 66 41 21 2¼ (mcpeek kenn)TORRES A 118 8.00 8.04  
1  SINGLE RULER 1 2 56 54 52 42½ 34 (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 118 4.00 24% 3.10 1.64 S
2  JEWELSTOWN 2 1 11½ 11 2½ 31½ 46¾ (peitz c)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00 5% 19.00 6.70  
6  BOLD LOOKER 6 6 711½ 712 75½ 56 58¼ (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 123 8.00 6.16  
5  CONSTITUTIONAL LAW 5 5 32 31½ 62½ 77 617 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.50 39% 1.60 5.26  
7  APOLLO RISING 7 7 21½ 21 31 66 717¾ (walden willi)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.50 7% 14.30 5.44  
SCR  SEAS OF NORMANDY               (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
 
ELP-6   07/21/2023 4620ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
:221 :452 1:102     1:232   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  TIMBERLAKE 7 2 1nk 12   13 19¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 23% 3.30 1.25 W
1  WEST SARATOGA 1 7 31½ 22   23 29¼ (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 8.78  
6  CAN GROUP 6 1 76¼ 67½   511 315½ (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 2.50 31% 2.20 5.26 S
4  NORTHERN FLAME 4 8 42½ 56½   39 417½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 8.40  
9  BLACK DIAMOND 9 5 97¼ 77½   49½ 519½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00 3.76  
3  DUTCH MILLS 3 9 87¼ 89   612½ 621½ (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 5% 19.00 14.22  
2  CARD TRICK 2 6 52¾ 45½   713½ 731½ (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 8.00 11.47  
5  RACCOON RODEO 5 4 2nk 34½   816½ 836¾ (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 42.38  
8  BURGUNDY ROYALE 8 3 64¾ 911½   924½ 957¼ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00 45.88  
 
ELP-7   07/21/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
:22 :452 :563     1:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  TILTED TOWERS 4 5 31½ 31½   21½ 11½ (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 122 6.00 5.28  
6  ATRAS 6 3 11½ 11   11½ 21½ (hewitt mich)TORRES A 122 4.00 23% 3.40 7.11 P
8  AMERICAN MAYHEM 8 7 63¼ 42½   33 32½ (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 7.60  
3  FIELD DAY 3 4 73¾ 73¾   43½ 43¾ (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 4.35  
9  UNPREDICTABLE BAY 9 8 53¼ 52½   54½ 55 (hammond kim)CANNON DECLAN 122 25.00 5% 19.00 18.67  
2  RED HORNET 2 6 96½ 95¾   75½ 65¾ (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 15.00 22.10  
1  GREGORY'S PRIDE 1 10 86¼ 84¾   86½ 76¼ (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 2.50 45% 1.20 2.29  
10  IMPROBABLE JOURNEY 10 1 41¾ 21   64½ 86¾ (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00 22.73  
5  BOURBON HEIST 5 9 106½ 106¼   98 97¼ (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 115 8.00 6% 16.40 4.85  
7  ORIENT MAGIC 7 2 21½ 63½   109 1012¼ (french r)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 30.00 59.87  
SCR  WILLTORUN               (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.50    
 
ELP-8   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
:23 :462 1:121 1:253   1:384   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  GROUP EIGHTEEN 2 6 712¾ 710½ 52½ 1nk 11¾ (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 12.00 8.15  
4  MASTER GAME 4 4 610¾ 57 41½ 2nk 21¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 123 15.00 5% 19.00 4.63 P
8  REDEMPTION TIME 8 7 814¾ 811 64½ 43 32½ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 10.00 14.93  
1  HAVILDAR 1 1 44½ 32½ 2nk 31 46¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 34% 1.90 0.95  
7  MAASAI WARRIOR 7 8 510½ 67½ 75 65½ 510½ (leonard iii)BEJARANO R 123 8.00 6.32  
3  CAN'T HUSH THIS 3 2 1nk 11½ 1nk 53½ 617¾ (morse l)CHUAN MARTIN 125 6.00 9% 10.50 6.97  
5  MO'S TREASURE 5 5 34 43 31 76 719 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 43.99  
6  SHOTSHELL 6 3 2nk 21½ 86½ 818 851¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00 33% 2.00 13.63  
SCR  FAMILY MAN               (medina robert)LANERIE J 123 4.00    
SCR  PROTEGE               (moquett ron)TORRES A 118 6.00    
 
ELP-9   07/21/2023 3630ft TURF FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
:22 :46 :573     1:032   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURE COUNTRY 1 7 64 64   53 11¼ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 2.46  
7  SASSY WALKER 7 2 31 1nk   1nk 21¼ (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.50 37% 1.70 2.22 P
5  SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL 5 1 2½ 3½   42 31¾ (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00 6.19 S
4  EVERGRANDE 4 3 1½ 2nk   2nk 41¾ (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 4.50 23% 3.40 5.78  
6  INVENTING ANNA 6 6 42½ 42½   31½ 51¾ (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 7% 12.40 10.22  
9  UNDER ADVISEMENT 8 5 53 53   64½ 65¾ (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 12% 7.70 7.57  
10  SAUCY SECRET 9 8 84½ 74½   75½ 78¼ (hobby steve)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 18.85  
2  GATHERING STORM 2 4 74 85½   810½ 818¼ (harrigan william)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00 20.22  
3  SOFIA'S SONATA 3 9 97½ 97   912½ 918½ (hancock a)BAYS BROOKE 109 30.00 40.45  
SCR  AMERICAN FAIRYTALE               (wilkes ian )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
SCR  EYES OF GOLD               (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
SCR  HOLD MY HALO               (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
SCR  ISLANDINTHESTREAM               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
SCR  PHAT CHANCE FANCY               (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.