Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-4   EXA (13/2/3/12/5)-(13/2/3/12/5) 20 $2.00 $40.00  2-13 $42.08 $2.08 5%
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:251 :484 1:132 1:262   1:394   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  NAVY SOUL 4 4 3½ 53½ 53½ 63½ 1¼ (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 118 12.00 18.72  
6  BATUKHAN (IRE) 6 5 41½ 42 43 22 2¼ (newton tr)TORRES A 123 2.00 27% 2.70 2.61 P
1  CRONUS 1 6 51¾ 2½ 1½ 12 32¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 4.50 3.05  
3  TROPIC STORM 3 1 1nk 31½ 32½ 53 42½ (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 123 5.00 16% 5.20 2.65  
2  BLAME SHIFTER 2 3 63¼ 64 64½ 42½ 56½ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 4.50 20% 4.00 2.67  
5  NOTION 5 2 2nk 1½ 2½ 32½ 613 (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 9.82  
 
ELP-2   07/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:23 :462 :591     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  CRAVENSWORTH 4 4 45½ 57½   33 12¾ (moquett e)NAVAS YOEL 112 6.00 10.34  
3  MR. COMMANDER 3 3 1½ 2nk   11½ 22¾ (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.00 10% 9.00 3.57 P
5  THE BIG MOZZ 5 5 69 46½   56½ 33 (trujillo elvis)STEVENS C 124 4.50 30% 2.30 4.37 S
2  REDHILL 2 6 58½ 68   46½ 45½ (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00 12.68  
6  KING OF KENTUCKY 6 1 2½ 1nk   21½ 57¾ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 1.80 35% 1.80 0.84  
1  RANSAM PAYNTER 1 2 32½ 36   68½ 619 (hewitt mi)TORRES A 119 4.00 8.44  
 
ELP-3   07/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:232 :473 1:122     1:254   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  PASS THE HAT 5 2 21 2½   11½ 11 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 26% 2.90 2.24 W
  (by COLLECTED out of VERONIQUE by MIZZEN MAST)
3  OMEX 3 7 74 74½   34 21 (walsh brendan )CHUAN MARTIN 119 4.00 5.42  
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
9  NUEVO AMANECER 8 1 11 1½   21½ 35 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 114 20.00 5% 19.00 25.95 S
  (by MASTERY out of MIDNIGHT SWINGER by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
2  PHREDDIE MAC 2 6 63 53   56 46 (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00 3.79  
  (by HARD SPUN out of FINANCIAL RECOVERY by STREET CRY (IRE))
1  LEAD FOOT 1 5 53 63   66 56½ (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 11.60  
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of LILY'S GIRL by MARIA'S MON)
4  MENA 4 4 31½ 31½   76¼ 67½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 32% 2.10 3.18  
  (by HARD SPUN out of PANGBURN by CONGRATS)
8  WARNING SIGNS 7 3 42 42   45½ 79¾ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00 5% 19.00 11.54  
  (by BERNARDINI out of EMMA CARLY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
6  TENNESSEE LAMB 6 8 85 84¾   88¾ 815 (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 12.00 8.52  
  (by TONALIST out of TENNESSEE WHISKEY by PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE))
SCR  HEY JOE JOE               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PEACH BREW by MILWAUKEE BREW)
 
ELP-4   07/21/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:242 :49 1:141 1:384   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  JUST A PHOTO 2 3 43 54¼ 53¼ 52¼ 11½ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 24% 3.10 1.96 W
13  SIX MISSIONS 11 8 32½ 33½ 31½ 21½ 21½ (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 29% 2.50 6.59 P
7  SOUTHERN CRUSH 6 6 2½ 2nk 1nk 11½ 31½ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 26.99  
1  FIGHT'N READY 1 1 76 107¾ 84½ 74¼ 42 (stewart dalla)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 3.51  
3  CURLINS INCHARGE 3 2 65 85¾ 94½ 31½ 52¼ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.00 17% 5.00 4.80  
12  TRICOLOUR 10 9 87 43¾ 41¾ 62¼ 64 (miller kenn)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 10.00 9% 10.60 8.79  
8  COAL BOSS 7 7 54½ 65¼ 73½ 84¾ 75¾ (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 20.72  
5  SELF RULE 4 5 109 96¾ 116 96¾ 88¼ (preston rand)CALLEJA ANDRES 114 20.00 5% 19.00 30.98  
6  SAPELO SOUND 5 4 1½ 1nk 2nk 42 98½ (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 12.00 38.13  
11  SILVER RALEIGH 9 10 119 1110¾ 105 108¾ 1011¾ (beckman d )CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 32.44  
9  CHANCE 8 11 98½ 75¼ 63¼ 1111¼ 1117½ (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 11.48  
SCR  CREATIVE WAY               (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
SCR  FIGHTERTOWN               (amoss thomas )GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
SCR  PITAGORE               (engler jeff)LANERIE J 124 12.00    
 
ELP-5   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:233 :463 1:12 1:25   1:381   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SEVEN FLAT 4 4 44½ 44 1½ 11 1¼ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 6.21  
3  PRINCELY 3 3 67 66 41 21 2¼ (mcpeek ke)TORRES A 118 8.00 8.04  
1  SINGLE RULER 1 2 56 54 52 42½ 34 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 4.00 24% 3.10 1.64 S
2  JEWELSTOWN 2 1 11½ 11 2½ 31½ 46¾ (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00 5% 19.00 6.70  
6  BOLD LOOKER 6 6 711½ 712 75½ 56 58¼ (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 123 8.00 6.16  
5  CONSTITUTIONAL LAW 5 5 32 31½ 62½ 77 617 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.50 39% 1.60 5.26  
7  APOLLO RISING 7 7 21½ 21 31 66 717¾ (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.50 7% 14.30 5.44  
SCR  SEAS OF NORMANDY               (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
 
ELP-6   07/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:221 :452 1:102     1:232   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  TIMBERLAKE 7 2 1nk 12   13 19¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 23% 3.30 1.25 W
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PIN UP by TAPIT)
1  WEST SARATOGA 1 7 31½ 22   23 29¼ (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 8.78  
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of MO WICKED by UNCLE MO)
6  CAN GROUP 6 1 76¼ 67½   511 315½ (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 2.50 31% 2.20 5.26 S
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of BLUE GALLINA by STREET SENSE)
4  NORTHERN FLAME 4 8 42½ 56½   39 417½ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 8.40  
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DARLING'S DARLING by BERNARDINI)
9  BLACK DIAMOND 9 5 97¼ 77½   49½ 519½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00 3.76  
  (by STREET SENSE out of SNOW FALL by WAR FRONT)
3  DUTCH MILLS 3 9 87¼ 89   612½ 621½ (ortiz joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 5% 19.00 14.22  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of DUTCH PARROT by ESKENDEREYA)
2  CARD TRICK 2 6 52¾ 45½   713½ 731½ (asmussen )TORRES A 119 8.00 11.47  
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of GAME FACTOR by THE FACTOR)
5  RACCOON RODEO 5 4 2nk 34½   816½ 836¾ (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 42.38  
  (by BERNARDINI out of CORONADO ROSE by CORONADO'S QUEST)
8  BURGUNDY ROYALE 8 3 64¾ 911½   924½ 957¼ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00 45.88  
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BURGUNDY ICE by STORM CAT)
 
ELP-7   07/21/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:22 :452 :563     1:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  TILTED TOWERS 4 5 31½ 31½   21½ 11½ (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 6.00 5.28  
6  ATRAS 6 3 11½ 11   11½ 21½ (hewitt mi)TORRES A 122 4.00 23% 3.40 7.11 P
8  AMERICAN MAYHEM 8 7 63¼ 42½   33 32½ (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 7.60  
3  FIELD DAY 3 4 73¾ 73¾   43½ 43¾ (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 4.35  
9  UNPREDICTABLE BAY 9 8 53¼ 52½   54½ 55 (hammond kim)CANNON DECLAN 122 25.00 5% 19.00 18.67  
2  RED HORNET 2 6 96½ 95¾   75½ 65¾ (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 15.00 22.10  
1  GREGORY'S PRIDE 1 10 86¼ 84¾   86½ 76¼ (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 2.50 45% 1.20 2.29  
10  IMPROBABLE JOURNEY 10 1 41¾ 21   64½ 86¾ (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00 22.73  
5  BOURBON HEIST 5 9 106½ 106¼   98 97¼ (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 115 8.00 6% 16.40 4.85  
7  ORIENT MAGIC 7 2 21½ 63½   109 1012¼ (french r)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 30.00 59.87  
SCR  WILLTORUN               (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.50    
 
ELP-8   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:23 :462 1:121 1:253   1:384   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  GROUP EIGHTEEN 2 6 712¾ 710½ 52½ 1nk 11¾ (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 12.00 8.15  
4  MASTER GAME 4 4 610¾ 57 41½ 2nk 21¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 123 15.00 5% 19.00 4.63 P
8  REDEMPTION TIME 8 7 814¾ 811 64½ 43 32½ (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 10.00 14.93  
1  HAVILDAR 1 1 44½ 32½ 2nk 31 46¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 34% 1.90 0.95  
7  MAASAI WARRIOR 7 8 510½ 67½ 75 65½ 510½ (leonard i)BEJARANO R 123 8.00 6.32  
3  CAN'T HUSH THIS 3 2 1nk 11½ 1nk 53½ 617¾ (morse l)CHUAN MARTIN 125 6.00 9% 10.50 6.97  
5  MO'S TREASURE 5 5 34 43 31 76 719 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 43.99  
6  SHOTSHELL 6 3 2nk 21½ 86½ 818 851¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00 33% 2.00 13.63  
SCR  FAMILY MAN               (medina robert)LANERIE J 123 4.00    
SCR  PROTEGE               (moquett r)TORRES A 118 6.00    
 
ELP-9   07/21/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:22 :46 :573     1:032   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURE COUNTRY 1 7 64 64   53 11¼ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 2.46  
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of HONEY LAKE by HONEYLAND)
7  SASSY WALKER 7 2 31 1nk   1nk 21¼ (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.50 37% 1.70 2.22 P
  (by MUNNINGS out of SASINI by FASTNET ROCK)
5  SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL 5 1 2½ 3½   42 31¾ (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00 6.19 S
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MY PAIGE'S JEWEL by FOREST WILDCAT)
4  EVERGRANDE 4 3 1½ 2nk   2nk 41¾ (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.50 23% 3.40 5.78  
  (by UNCLE MO out of NIKKI'S CHOICE by FORESTRY)
6  INVENTING ANNA 6 6 42½ 42½   31½ 51¾ (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 7% 12.40 10.22  
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of YES LIZ by YES IT'S TRUE)
9  UNDER ADVISEMENT 8 5 53 53   64½ 65¾ (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 12% 7.70 7.57  
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of WALTZINGINTHERAIN by TIZWAY)
10  SAUCY SECRET 9 8 84½ 74½   75½ 78¼ (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 18.85  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TIZ MIZ SUE by TIZNOW)
2  GATHERING STORM (SAF) 2 4 74 85½   810½ 818¼ (harrigan william)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00 20.22  
  (by JOSHUA DANCER out of REIGNING STORM (AUS) by RUBITON (AUS))
3  SOFIA'S SONATA 3 9 97½ 97   912½ 918½ (hancock a)BAYS BROOKE 109 30.00 40.45  
  (by STORMY ATLANTIC out of SCENE NOT HEARD by ROYAL ACADEMY)
SCR  AMERICAN FAIRYTALE               (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of FAIRYLAND by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  EYES OF GOLD               (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of MS TRISH S. by SMOKE WARNING)
SCR  HOLD MY HALO               (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of MODENA BAY by VOLKSRAAD)
SCR  ISLANDINTHESTREAM               (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of COLORFUL CHARADES by DISCREET CAT)
SCR  PHAT CHANCE FANCY               (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SPARKLING CITY by CAPE TOWN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.