Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - July 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (6/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/3)-(6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/3)-(6/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3)-(6/5/3)-(4/5/8/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-2   WIN (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/3)-(6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/3)-(4/5/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/3)-(4/5/8/9)-(13/2/3/12/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/5/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/8/9)-(4/5/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/8/9)-(4/5/8/9)-(4/5/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/8/9)-(13/2/3/12/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/5/8/9)-(13/2/3/12/5)-(5/1/7/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-4   WIN (13/2/3/12/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (13/2/3/12/5)-(13/2/3/12/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (13/2/3/12/5)-(13/2/3/12/5)-(13/2/3/12/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (13/2/3/12/5)-(5/1/7/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (13/2/3/12/5)-(5/1/7/2)-(6/7/3/8/9) 100 $1.00 $300 
ELP-5   WIN (5/1/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/7/2)-(5/1/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/7/2)-(5/1/7/2)-(5/1/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/7/2)-(6/7/3/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/1/7/2)-(6/7/3/8/9)-(1/6/5/10/9) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-6   WIN (6/7/3/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/7/3/8/9)-(6/7/3/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/7/3/8/9)-(6/7/3/8/9)-(6/7/3/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/7/3/8/9)-(1/6/5/10/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/7/3/8/9)-(1/6/5/10/9)-(1/6/3/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-7   WIN (1/6/5/10/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/6/5/10/9)-(1/6/5/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/6/5/10/9)-(1/6/5/10/9)-(1/6/5/10/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/6/5/10/9)-(1/6/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5/10/9)-(1/6/3/4)-(7/4/9/6/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-8   WIN (1/6/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/3/4)-(1/6/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/3/4)-(1/6/3/4)-(1/6/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/3/4)-(7/4/9/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (7/4/9/6/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/4/9/6/5)-(7/4/9/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/4/9/6/5)-(7/4/9/6/5)-(7/4/9/6/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRONUS Jun16 May25 Apr29 Mar24 Jan13 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 4.50    
2  BLAME SHIFTER Jun18 May18 May04 Mar19   (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 4.50 20% 4.00    
3  TROPIC STORM Jun25 Jun04 May12 Apr18 Mar25 (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 123 5.00 16% 5.20    
4  NAVY SOUL Jun15 May04 Apr18 Aug30 Aug07 (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 118 12.00    
5  NOTION Feb17 Dec26 Nov24 Oct09 Sep07 (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00    
6  BATUKHAN (IRE) May12 Apr01 Mar09 Jan06 Dec03 (newton tr)TORRES A 123 2.00 27% 2.70    
 
ELP-2   07/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RANSAM PAYNTER Jul10 Jun18 May21 May06 Apr29 (hewitt mi)TORRES A 119 4.00    
2  REDHILL Jun15 Mar17       (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00    
3  MR. COMMANDER Jul01 Jun15 May21 Apr27 Apr18 (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 3.00 10% 9.00    
4  CRAVENSWORTH Jun17 May05 Nov24     (moquett e)NAVAS YOEL 112 6.00    
5  THE BIG MOZZ Jun01 Jan04 Nov19     (trujillo elvis)STEVENS C 124 4.50 30% 2.30    
6  KING OF KENTUCKY Jun22 May21 Apr28 Mar25 Mar10 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 1.80 35% 1.80    
 
ELP-3   07/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEAD FOOT Jul01         (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of LILY'S GIRL by MARIA'S MON)
2  PHREDDIE MAC Jun15         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FINANCIAL RECOVERY by STREET CRY (IRE))
3  OMEX Jun15         (walsh brendan )CHUAN MARTIN 119 4.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
4  MENA         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 32% 2.10    
  (by HARD SPUN out of PANGBURN by CONGRATS)
5  PASS THE HAT Jun15         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 26% 2.90    
  (by COLLECTED out of VERONIQUE by MIZZEN MAST)
6  TENNESSEE LAMB         (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by TONALIST out of TENNESSEE WHISKEY by PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE))
SCR  HEY JOE JOE Jun22         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PEACH BREW by MILWAUKEE BREW)
8  WARNING SIGNS         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of EMMA CARLY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
9  NUEVO AMANECER Jun23 Jun06 May11     (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 114 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MASTERY out of MIDNIGHT SWINGER by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
 
ELP-4   07/21/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIGHT'N READY Jun02 Apr14 Feb18 Jan21 Dec08 (stewart dalla)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
2  JUST A PHOTO May06 Apr08       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 24% 3.10    
3  CURLINS INCHARGE Jun22 May28 May04 Mar31 Feb18 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
SCR  FIGHTERTOWN Jun15 May21 Feb26 Jan21 Dec24 (amoss thomas )GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
5  SELF RULE May28 May11 Feb16 Jan25 Dec31 (preston rand)CALLEJA ANDRES 114 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  SAPELO SOUND Sep07         (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 12.00    
7  SOUTHERN CRUSH Jan01 Dec02 Oct23     (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
8  COAL BOSS Mar09 Feb12 Jan21 Dec23 Nov26 (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
9  CHANCE Jun14 Dec16 Nov13 Oct21   (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
SCR  PITAGORE Jun07 May20       (engler jeff)LANERIE J 124 12.00    
11  SILVER RALEIGH         (beckman d )CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
12  TRICOLOUR Jul07 Jun21 May30 Feb16 Jan28 (miller kenn)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 10.00 9% 10.60    
13  SIX MISSIONS Jun22 May14 Oct15 Sep03 Jul30 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  CREATIVE WAY Jun22 May25       (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
 
ELP-5   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SINGLE RULER Jun30 Jun11 May29 Mar25 Feb18 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 4.00 24% 3.10    
2  JEWELSTOWN Jun18 May04 Apr08 Mar04 Jan28 (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  PRINCELY May28 May13 Apr19 Mar19 Nov12 (mcpeek ke)TORRES A 118 8.00    
4  SEVEN FLAT Jun02 May13 Apr26 Jun30 May26 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 6.00    
5  CONSTITUTIONAL LAW Jun29 May28 Feb21 Dec23 Dec04 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.50 39% 1.60    
6  BOLD LOOKER Jun18 May13 Apr19 Mar10 Feb17 (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 123 8.00    
7  APOLLO RISING Jul01 May28 Apr21 Oct26 Sep24 (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.50 7% 14.30    
SCR  SEAS OF NORMANDY Apr08 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 Dec31 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
 
ELP-6   07/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WEST SARATOGA Jun04 May11 Apr07     (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of MO WICKED by UNCLE MO)
2  CARD TRICK Jun01         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of GAME FACTOR by THE FACTOR)
3  DUTCH MILLS         (ortiz joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of DUTCH PARROT by ESKENDEREYA)
4  NORTHERN FLAME         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of DARLING'S DARLING by BERNARDINI)
5  RACCOON RODEO Jun17         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of CORONADO ROSE by CORONADO'S QUEST)
6  CAN GROUP Jun29         (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 2.50 31% 2.20    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of BLUE GALLINA by STREET SENSE)
7  TIMBERLAKE Jun15         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PIN UP by TAPIT)
8  BURGUNDY ROYALE         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BURGUNDY ICE by STORM CAT)
9  BLACK DIAMOND         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SNOW FALL by WAR FRONT)
 
ELP-7   07/21/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREGORY'S PRIDE Jun23 May29 Apr21 Feb05 Nov05 (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 2.50 45% 1.20    
2  RED HORNET Jun23 Jun01 May20 Apr13 Mar25 (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 15.00    
3  FIELD DAY Jun25 Jul13 May17 Mar19   (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50    
4  TILTED TOWERS Jun10 May25 Apr20 Mar16 Feb25 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 6.00    
5  BOURBON HEIST Jun22 May14 Apr28 Mar10 Jan13 (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 115 8.00 6% 16.40    
6  ATRAS Jun24 Jun17 Jun09 May12 Apr28 (hewitt mi)TORRES A 122 4.00 23% 3.40    
7  ORIENT MAGIC Jun27 Jun09       (french r)LOPEZ E 122 30.00    
8  AMERICAN MAYHEM Oct01 Sep14 Aug26 Jul24 Jul03 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00    
9  UNPREDICTABLE BAY Jul07 May14 Apr18 Jan14 Dec17 (hammond kim)CANNON DECLAN 122 25.00 5% 19.00    
10  IMPROBABLE JOURNEY Jun27 Jun01 Apr16 Apr02 Mar17 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WILLTORUN Jun23 May02 Apr08 Feb25 Jan14 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.50    
 
ELP-8   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAVILDAR Jun14         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 34% 1.90    
2  GROUP EIGHTEEN Jun22 May19 Apr19 Mar18 Feb24 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 12.00    
3  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jun29 Jun10 Jan08 Dec11 Nov23 (morse l)CHUAN MARTIN 125 6.00 9% 10.50    
4  MASTER GAME Jun22 May11 Apr15 Feb21 Jan19 (forster t)GRAHAM J 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  MO'S TREASURE Jan20 Nov26 Oct12 Sep22 Sep03 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
6  SHOTSHELL Jun18 May07       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 8.00 33% 2.00    
7  MAASAI WARRIOR Jul08 Jun01 Apr29 Mar02 Jan22 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 123 8.00    
8  REDEMPTION TIME Jun11 May14 Apr14 Oct16 Sep18 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 10.00    
SCR  FAMILY MAN Nov12 Oct02 Jul17 Jun29 May15 (medina robert)LANERIE J 123 4.00    
SCR  PROTEGE Jul15 Apr14 Feb04 Dec17 Nov04 (moquett r)TORRES A 118 6.00    
 
ELP-9   07/21/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURE COUNTRY Jun23 Apr28 Mar12 Jun22 May29 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 124 6.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of HONEY LAKE by HONEYLAND)
2  GATHERING STORM (SAF) Oct15 Aug21 Jul31     (harrigan william)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00    
  (by JOSHUA DANCER out of REIGNING STORM (AUS) by RUBITON (AUS))
3  SOFIA'S SONATA         (hancock a)BAYS BROOKE 109 30.00    
  (by STORMY ATLANTIC out of SCENE NOT HEARD by ROYAL ACADEMY)
4  EVERGRANDE Jan21         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.50 23% 3.40    
  (by UNCLE MO out of NIKKI'S CHOICE by FORESTRY)
5  SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL Jun29 Jun02 May13 Apr21 Mar11 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MY PAIGE'S JEWEL by FOREST WILDCAT)
6  INVENTING ANNA May18 Oct30 Oct08 Sep06 Aug10 (mccarthy mic)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 7% 12.40    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of YES LIZ by YES IT'S TRUE)
7  SASSY WALKER Jun25 May20 Apr21     (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.50 37% 1.70    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SASINI by FASTNET ROCK)
SCR  ISLANDINTHESTREAM May20 Mar08       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of COLORFUL CHARADES by DISCREET CAT)
9  UNDER ADVISEMENT May28 Apr21       (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 12% 7.70    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of WALTZINGINTHERAIN by TIZWAY)
10  SAUCY SECRET Jun17 May20       (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TIZ MIZ SUE by TIZNOW)
SCR  PHAT CHANCE FANCY Jul09 Jun17       (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SPARKLING CITY by CAPE TOWN)
SCR  HOLD MY HALO         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of MODENA BAY by VOLKSRAAD)
SCR  AMERICAN FAIRYTALE Jun25 Dec29 Nov24 Oct30   (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of FAIRYLAND by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  EYES OF GOLD Nov24 Oct22 Sep22 Aug13 Jul04 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of MS TRISH S. by SMOKE WARNING)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.