Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Friday - August 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   08/11/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:241 :483 1:131 1:252   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  BAYTOWN PARFAIT 6 3 11 1½ 2nk 1nk 1nk (ramirez m)BEJARANO R 120 8.00 5% 19.00 1.76 W
3  MASTER SWITCH 3 6 42½ 42½ 4¼ 2nk 2nk (barkley j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 7.46  
1  HAWKS CREEK 1 2 52½ 53½ 51¾ 41½ 3½ (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 120 6.00 5% 19.00 18.42 S
4  SAVE THE KING 4 7 65 65½ 64¼ 53 43¾ (davis chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 8.00 16.82  
2  ACACIO 2 1 31½ 31½ 1nk 3½ 54½ (thomas jonat)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 1.80 57% 0.70 1.40  
5  MIDNIGHT TIL DAWN 5 5 76½ 76 75¾ 77½ 68¾ (o'neill d)TORRES A 120 3.00 16% 5.20 8.10  
7  BOLD FORCE 7 4 21 2½ 3.2 65½ 710¼ (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 120 10.00 9.12  
 
ELP-2   08/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:243 :482 1:122 1:243   1:372   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ON A SPREE 1 1 1½ 1½ 11 14½ 16¾ (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 1.40 37% 1.70 0.65 W
3  SUGOI 2 2 2½ 2½ 21 24½ 26¾ (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 123 2.00 22% 3.60 1.38 P
4  SHORTLIST 3 3 31½ 31 31½ 36½ 314½ (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 123 3.50 4.16  
SCR  MOHAAFETH               (trujillo elvis)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 12.00    
SCR  TAPAGE               (cano muno)CHUAN MARTIN 123 5.00    
 
ELP-3   08/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:232 :47 1:12     1:242   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BARBRATINA 2 6 51¼ 51¾   2½ 15 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 16.40  
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of SALLY RIDE by TAPIT)
7  UP ON THE EDGE 6 1 2nk 1nk   1½ 25 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 2.00 62% 0.60 0.59 P
  (by UPSTART out of GOLD EDGE by EDDINGTON)
3  WEE BIT O MISCHIEF 3 3 41¼ 41¾   31 36¾ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.50 10% 8.70 7.10 S
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LA CANELA by CONGRATS)
1  NAUGHTY MISS 1 4 62¾ 62   64 410¾ (roberson dennis)LANERIE J 119 2.50 3.09  
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of INCLUDING by INCLUDE)
6  AARALYN 5 2 1nk 2nk   41½ 510¾ (hiles jeff)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 5% 19.00 8.24  
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of WAR OFFICE by WAR FRONT)
4  CHOCTAW GRACE 4 5 31 3.2   53½ 612¾ (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 18.60  
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of SARAH HER HIGHNESS by MILWAUKEE BREW)
SCR  LITTLE MUSIC               (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 15.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of FROZEN MUSIC by LANGFUHR)
 
ELP-4   08/11/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:243 :482 1:122 1:363   1:424   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  SOUTHERN CRUSH 7 4 3½ 1nk 1½ 1nk 1hd (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 5.00 5.06  
2  FIRST PLAYER 2 3 43 42¾ 43 33 2hd (howard nei)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 4.13  
1  SIX MISSIONS 1 1 1nk 2nk 2½ 2nk 3½ (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 27% 2.70 1.93 S
6  CAIRO'S GHOST 5 7 77¾ 76¼ 64½ 43½ 41¼ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 11.43  
3  SENSICAL 3 2 2nk 3.2 31½ 53¾ 55¼ (engler jeff)LANERIE J 118 3.50 31% 2.30 3.50  
4  GO CATS 4 5 64¾ 64¼ 75 76¾ 67 (davis christo)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 21% 3.80 5.99  
7  QAADER 6 6 54½ 52¾ 53½ 66¾ 77¼ (trujillo elvis)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00 5% 19.00 14.08  
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA               (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 124 4.50    
SCR  VIOLENT THUNDER               (barkley jason)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
 
ELP-5   08/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:224 :46 :583     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SISTER KISSES 4 6 21 2nk   13½ 17¾ (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 26% 2.90 1.16 W
6  WITCH OF NOVEMBER 5 5 45 34½   35 27¾ (mccarthy micha)CHUAN MARTIN 119 2.50 24% 3.10 2.31 P
1  DIVINE GRACE 1 3 33½ 57   46½ 39¼ (ewing michael)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 6.06  
7  I GOTTA BOLT 6 2 55 68½   59 412¼ (hancock a)LANERIE J 119 8.00 15.39  
8  ISABEL DE CLARE 7 1 65½ 45½   69½ 512¾ (seglin e)COHEN DAVID 124 20.00 42.59  
2  GET BY 2 4 11 1nk   23½ 613¼ (cano mun)DELCID MARLON 114 4.00 22% 3.60 4.11  
3  ELEGANT MOVES 3 7 76½ 715½   719½ 751½ (pittman bo)CARPIO J 109 20.00 5% 19.00 35.59  
SCR  SHACKLED BY LUST               (hancock a)BAYS BROOKE 109 12.00    
 
ELP-6   08/11/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:213 :441 :552     1:011   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  COUNTERSTRIKE 3 1 53½ 42½   2nk 13½ (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 122 3.00 47% 1.10 3.71 W
1  WESTERN COMMAND 1 8 11 1½   1nk 23½ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 34.38  
4  CUSTOM BOBBY'S 4 2 21 2½   3.2 34¼ (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00 7.34 S
7  ZARTOWNIS 7 3 42½ 52½   54¼ 44½ (devaux ch)TORRES A 122 8.00 6.75  
2  GOOD HEART 2 10 31½ 32   41¾ 55 (walsh bre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00 2.86  
6  MUMAYAZ 6 9 108 108¾   76¼ 65¼ (peitz c)GRAHAM J 122 8.00 11% 8.30 13.49  
10  B D VALESKI 10 6 96 85¾   65¾ 75¾ (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 16% 5.20 3.97  
8  SANTORINI 8 4 74½ 75½   97¼ 87¼ (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 8.00 6.95  
5  GHENT 5 7 64 63½   86¼ 99¼ (hamilton s)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 32.46  
9  HOCUS (GB) 9 5 84½ 96¾   1010¼ 1015 (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 122 20.00 5% 19.00 24.75  
 
ELP-7   08/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:224 :463 :592     1:13   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  IRIDESCENT 12 1 31½ 2½   2½ 11 (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.00 25% 3.00 3.07 W
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of RESOLU by SMART STRIKE)
4  E J WON THE CUP 4 7 1½ 1½   1½ 21 (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 3.70  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FIRSTHAND REPORT by BLAME)
1  PALM TREE 1 2 2½ 31   3½ 32¼ (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 8.49  
  (by STREET BOSS out of DESERT GAZELLE by SMART STRIKE)
10  MO RHODES 10 12 127¾ 64½   44 45¾ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 5.00 6% 15.90 12.48  
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MO D'AMOUR by UNCLE MO)
11  MR. LEASURE 11 9 106¼ 97   75¾ 56¼ (o'neill doug)LANERIE J 119 20.00 5% 19.00 31.11  
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of MYSTERIOUSLY by TIZNOW)
9  CAJUN FOOL 9 6 84 44   64¾ 68¾ (ramirez lu)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00 10.78  
  (by CAJUN BREEZE out of LAGO LINDO by HIGH COTTON)
3  CATS BY FIVE 3 11 42 54   54¼ 79¼ (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.00 26% 2.90 8.59  
  (by AUDIBLE out of CATTICUS by ATTICUS)
8  NEW SPELL 8 5 94¼ 107½   99¾ 811¾ (simms jr)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00 22.14  
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BROKEN SPELL by BROKEN VOW)
5  PENROD 5 3 63½ 119   1110¼ 913 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 5.20  
  (by UPSTART out of PROUD PEARL by PROUD CITIZEN)
7  NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO 7 4 73½ 75½   88¾ 1016 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 17.34  
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of MY LIL SHAMROCK by CITY ZIP)
2  JACK IS BACK 2 8 52½ 86½   109¾ 1117¾ (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 5% 19.00 19.17  
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of CRUMBS OF COMFORT by PULPIT)
6  DREAM TIME 6 10 116¼ 1211½   1212¾ 1218 (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 20.63  
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of TIZ DA BIZ by TIZWAY)
 
ELP-8   08/11/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:234 :471 1:103 1:343   1:403   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  FLASHY GEM 3 2 21 2½ 2nk 12 11¾ (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 1.20 40% 1.50 1.46 W
7  SHE'S GONE 7 6 54 53½ 63¾ 42½ 21¾ (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 8.09  
2  AALIYAH EZRI 2 1 42½ 32 32 22 32 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 6.00 16% 5.40 7.71 S
6  MANUCA (BRZ) 6 7 64½ 63½ 53½ 32 43¾ (lobo paul)TORRES A 122 4.50 9% 9.90 1.59  
1  MUSIC STREET 1 5 77 76½ 75¼ 65 57 (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00 21.39  
5  JUMP INTO THE FIRE 5 4 11 1½ 1nk 54 610¾ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00 9% 10.70 30.09  
4  REAGAN'S DECISION 4 3 31 42½ 42½ 78 716 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00 7.33  
 
ELP-9   08/11/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:213 :441 :56     1:02   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  FOXTROTANNA 4 1 1½ 11½   11½ 13¼ (wojczynski )PETERSON FERRIN 124 30.00 ######  
  (by FAST ANNA out of FOXY CLEO by WHYWHYWHY)
5  CUORE SACRO 5 2 2½ 31½   21½ 23¼ (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 3.00 16% 5.30 1.80 P
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BACCHANAL LADY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
3  COMMAND' ORO 3 8 75½ 76¾   65¼ 34½ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00 15.44 S
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of C. S. INCHARGE by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
1  MONT MERCOU 1 3 41½ 21½   32½ 46½ (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 5% 19.00 3.42  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SLEWFOUNDMONEY by SEEKING THE GOLD)
10  BIRTHDAY MUNNINGS 9 7 31½ 43   55 57 (walsh p)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 60% 0.70 1.70  
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
7  KING OF KENTUCKY 7 4 85¾ 86¾   87¼ 67¼ (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 119 30.00 39.53  
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ROYAL ANCESTRY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
9  MOUNT KISCO 8 6 52 63¾   45 79 (howell jessi)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 15.00 11.54  
  (by ARROGATE out of PRINCESS KAREN by STAY THIRSTY)
12  MY ROAD 10 10 1011¼ 1012¾   1011¼ 812 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 124 20.00 84.00  
  (by STREET BOSS out of LATEST THINKING by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  MISTER MOSCATO 2 9 96¼ 98¾   910¾ 914½ (dunn stephen )CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00 5% 19.00 76.00  
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of COMMANDARIA by SMART STRIKE)
6  BAYOU SPIRIT 6 5 63 53½   76¼ 1030¼ (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00 15.46  
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of BEAUTIFUL DANIELE by A.P. INDY)
SCR  J J'S JOKER               (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CABBAGE KEY by A.P. INDY)
SCR  JOINT VENTURE               (flint bernard )CHUAN MARTIN 119 20.00    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of ABBEYVILLE MISS by GRAND SLAM)
SCR  PASS LINE               (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50    
  (by STRAIGHT LINE out of OVER AGAIN by SHARP HUMOR)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.